00:00After a relatively calm spell of weather things are on the change. It's going to
00:05get much livelier by the end of this working week. Now on the face of it we're
00:10not changing a huge deal between Monday and Friday. This is the start of the
00:15working week. There's an area of low pressure sitting to the northwest of the
00:18UK. Fast forward to Friday we have an area of low pressure sitting to the
00:22northwest of the UK. But the eagle-eyed amongst you will have spotted a big
00:27difference. This low is a much more intense low. There's many more isobars
00:32across the chart telling us it's going to be very windy by Friday. What's
00:36causing this change? Well let's take a look at the even bigger picture and take
00:40a look at what's going on high in the sky where the aeroplanes fly. The jet
00:45stream is really driving this change and it's really intensifying across the
00:51United States of America. Why so? Well it's because there's cold air drifting
00:56south. Very cold Arctic air plunging across the United States at the moment.
01:01Temperatures 5, 10, 20 degrees below average and staying below freezing as
01:06far south as Texas. That cold Arctic air driving south bumping up against the
01:11warm tropical air and it's the contrast between cold and warm that really does
01:17pep up the jet stream intensifying over the next 24 to 48 hours. The winds in the
01:23core of the jet could get up to 250 miles an hour. That's a very strong jet
01:29and look what it does at the surface. It develops that area of low pressure.
01:34That's what's heading our way come the end of the week. Now there's a lot to
01:39happen there and as a result the exact track of this low, well it could be
01:43further south, it could be further north, but it's certainly going to bring us a
01:46windy spell of weather to end this working week. More on that in a second.
01:51First of all let's go back again and we'll go through the week day by day.
01:56This is how we start with this much weaker area of low pressure up to the
01:59northwest but still providing plenty of showers and a weather front springing
02:04cloud and some outbreaks of rain across parts of North Wales, northwest England
02:08during Tuesday. Some of that rain will hop over the Pennines at times as well
02:12so a bit damp and drizzly here. A few showers into the western side of
02:17Scotland. Maybe the odd one to the east as well but it should brighten up a
02:20little bit across the Moray Firth. Brighter skies for Northern Ireland too.
02:23For a good chunk of England and Wales it's another pretty drab day. Mist and fog
02:27which will be lingering in places through the day and as a result another
02:32cold one. The wind's still pretty light up and down the land at this stage which
02:35is why the mist and the low cloud isn't shifting too far and why we're
02:40struggling to see temperatures get above sixes and sevens. Temperatures will drop
02:44away where we've got the clear skies on Tuesday night so there will be a frost
02:47across southern and eastern Scotland. Low pressure still sitting to the
02:51northwest. There's one down to the southwest as well and that is
02:53influencing things slowly just nudging a little further north and it may well
02:57pep up this weather front as it crosses the eastern side of England. So we will
03:01see some rain here. First rain for a while across East Anglia and the
03:04southeast. It could be quite a damp day for places here but a drier brighter day
03:10probably for northwest England and north Wales. Some lively showers at times in
03:14western Scotland but we should again see some sunny spells across northeastern
03:19Scotland but a chilly day again. Temperatures if anything lower on
03:23Wednesday compared to Tuesday fours and fives maybe six or seven in a few
03:27locations. So it's still pretty cold at this stage still fairly light winds not
03:31too many isobars across the chart. Things are brewing out in the Atlantic as we
03:35head through into Thursday and then this weather front will mix things up a
03:40little more. Rain pushing across Northern Ireland maybe some hill snow too as it
03:44crosses then through England, Wales and Scotland. Certainly some snow on the
03:47Scottish mountains and that band of rain zips across the country followed by
03:52brighter skies and a few showers but the winds will be picking up through
03:56Thursday a breezier day but with the winds coming in from the southwest it is
04:00slowly starting to turn a little milder. Temperatures close to the average six and
04:05sevens across the north seven eight nine maybe double digits across the far
04:09southwest if it brightens up. So that is the precursor to the big change. Then as
04:16we go through into Friday and Saturday we're keeping our eyes on this area of
04:21low pressure developing thanks to the jet stream. Now it's exact track is a
04:27little open to some uncertainty but we are going to see strong winds across the
04:32UK. Now the exact position of the low will determine how strong the winds are
04:36and where we see those potentially damaging gusts of wind. Now the most
04:40likely scenario is that it heads up just to the northwest of the UK. This is the
04:45most likely setup at the moment and in that scenario we will see strong winds
04:51across Scotland and Northern Ireland. 50, 60 mile an hour, 70 perhaps 80 mile an hour
04:56on exposed coasts and hills and those kind of winds likely to cause some
05:00disruption certainly to the transport network could bring down power cables or
05:04certainly some branches. So that's the most likely setup that we do see some
05:09impacts from this area of low pressure. Another potential scenario is that the
05:14lows maybe not quite as intense but is a little further south likely to then
05:19bring winds that could cause some problems to a more widespread area to
05:26more populated parts of the UK. Remember the strongest winds likely to be on the
05:29southern flank of the low so if it's further south if it tracks further south
05:33it could bring some stronger winds across parts of England and Wales. 20%
05:37likelihood of that scenario most likely that that low heads up to the northwest
05:42that's a 60% likelihood. There is also a 20% chance the low is perhaps a little
05:47more intense but scoots further away from the northwest and in that scenario
05:52well it probably wouldn't bring too many issues to the UK. So this is something we
05:58need to keep a close eye on. It's occurring intensifying through the middle
06:02part of the week still four or five days away and we'll obviously firm up on the
06:06details over the next few days. For the time being we do have a Met Office yellow
06:11warning in place that most likely scenario those gusts of wind 60 around
06:15Coastal Hills 70 or 80 miles an hour as I said going to cause some disruption
06:19certainly to the transport network maybe some power issues as well and those kind
06:24of winds strong enough perhaps to do some structural damage and certainly to
06:27bring down a few trees. So that's something we need to keep a close eye on.
06:30It's going to be a windy day wherever you are on Friday. There's the low and it's not just the
06:35winds it's going to be bringing a spell of rain swinging across the country as
06:39well. Something a bit brighter following on behind but of course the position of
06:42these rain bands will be determined by the position of the low and it could all
06:46be a little further south or it could all be a little further north. One thing
06:49we're pretty confident in temperatures will be getting higher come the end of
06:53the week 10-11 Celsius although obviously we'll be feeling much milder with the
06:57strength of the wind. What happens after that? Well that low is still around this
07:02Friday night as it tracks to the north so likely to stay pretty gusty into
07:07Saturday and then we need to keep our eyes peeled because once the jet has
07:10invigorated there's the possibility of further low pressures coming in behind
07:15high pressure down to the south. Anyone else seeing a face in that pressure
07:20chart? If you do want to keep up to date with the forecast and we strongly
07:24recommend you do through this week best way to do that is to hit subscribe on
07:29our YouTube channel you can see the warnings for yourself of course on our
07:32app and on our website.
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