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00:00If the Browns beat Pittsburgh and go 3-1, do you have to change what you thought this season could
00:03be?
00:04I've already changed what I thought this season.
00:06The fact that they've won two games, they're three wins away from hitting where I had them at five.
00:12I mean, if they lose on Thursday, it's a different story, I would imagine, for people.
00:18How we think about this Browns team is still up in the air.
00:20In a lot of ways, it's still up in the air.
00:22Yeah, we've been impressed by Munkin.
00:24That can come crashing down really quick, guys.
00:26Yeah, we've been impressed by some of the young players, and I expect that to stay.
00:29We've been impressed by Rutenberg with the defense.
00:31That could come crashing down, or at least maybe not being one of the more dominant pass rushes the NFL's
00:37ever seen.
00:38I think that's an okay thought to have.
00:40And so I don't think it's written in the stars yet that all of a sudden this team is some
00:45sort of,
00:46hey, 8, 9, 10 wins, it's coming.
00:47But if they win against Pittsburgh tomorrow night, that's where I think you see a lot of people start to
00:52believe
00:52not only can this team win that magical number of eight or nine games,
00:56but also find yourself thinking even grandiose big-picture things that we never would have dreamed of for this team.
01:02Yeah, in this division, which certainly looks a little bit different with no Tomlin on the sideline in Pittsburgh
01:06and no Harbaugh on the sideline in Baltimore, you could have a little bit of fun.
01:10What's the earliest week anyone's ever hit the over on their Vegas total?
01:16That's a good question.
01:18It's got to be like a week eight or week nine.
01:21Like if you start three and one and your over-under was five and a half.
01:24I forgot about that quote.
01:25Man, things are going so well.
01:27I forgot about that quote from Jimmy Haslam saying that he liked the over.
01:30He told us.
01:31He told us the whole entire time.
01:32He did.
01:32He gave us the script the whole time.
01:33But at two and one, nothing is yet guaranteed.
01:36Especially because, dude, to your point, what happens if Thursday night football tomorrow for the Browns
01:42looks like week one against Jackson?
01:44And I think that's why this game is so huge.
01:46It's meltdown time.
01:47Everybody's getting fired at the end of the year.
01:50Deshaun Watson's getting benched for Shador Sanders.
01:52We are losing our minds.
01:53But I think I've already changed what I expected this season to be because now I've seen it.
02:00They've given it to me.
02:01I've seen that this can work even against some pretty all right matchups.
02:07Like going in, we thought the Bucs were going to be better than the Browns.
02:10That didn't prove to be true when we actually played the game on the field.
02:13Same thing last week.
02:14Like with Carolina, that was a Panther team.
02:16Everybody spent the whole week talking about they went to the playoffs last year.
02:19Even though it was in a bad division, that's still a playoff team that has a bunch of really good
02:24players.
02:24I think I've changed my mind because they've proven to me that they can be a good team.
02:30And that they can be a team that could utilize their own really good players.
02:34I've seen it with Boston.
02:35I've seen it with Fannin.
02:36I've seen it with this defensive pass rush.
02:38So I've already tweaked it in my head that, yeah, this should be a team that easily soars over five
02:44wins.
02:44Even before I've seen Thursday night football.
02:48But to your point, if the other shoe drops on Thursday against Pittsburgh and they get boat raced, I don't
02:55know.
02:55Maybe I was right with five wins.
02:57Yeah, it's funny how the people that have predicted four or five wins have not moved off that yet.
03:01If they go three and one to start the season, those people will move off of those predictions.
03:06You have to.
03:06Yeah, there's nothing else you can do.
03:08Okay.
03:08I mean, you're going to move off those predictions.
03:11I just, I find it funny how much weight is then put into a game against the Steelers on Thursday
03:16night football.
03:17But there is a lot of weight attached to this game.
03:19And there's a serious nature to whether or not the Browns can be a team that vastly outperforms expectations relative
03:25to what you see against a Pittsburgh team that we still really don't even know what they are.
03:28Yeah, 42 years old, Aaron Rodgers.
03:30I have no idea if they're any good DK Metcalf is off to an awful start to the season.
03:35Jalen Warren's look nice, but I don't really know what Pittsburgh is.
03:38I think a big piece of this as somebody that's watched about two dozen of these Brown seasons and they
03:43come and they go.
03:44A lot of the time it boils down to, did you handle your business against the Pittsburgh Steelers?
03:50And when the answer has been yes, 2020, 2023, we won four straight at home against the against the Steelers,
03:57which is an odd fact, an odd number, considering we've won eight games over the past two years.
04:01The weird thing about Stefanski is even when things were crumbling, he was still doing really good things against the
04:06AFC North somehow.
04:07He was, but what gives me pause with that was exactly what we heard Ashley tell us in that three
04:14o'clock hour that the Steelers have played some pretty bad games up in this stadium.
04:20And Stefanski and Baker for that run just had Joe Burrow and the Bengals number for a lot of those
04:26years.
04:27So I think tomorrow just means so much because these Brown seasons oftentimes do come down to what you do
04:34in the division,
04:35but namely what you do against the Steelers who are always good in this division.
04:38Yeah.
04:39Steelers have won one of their last eight games in Cleveland going back to 2018,
04:42and they've lost three Thursday night games in Cleveland during that span.
04:45I think ironically the one what they won is that Monday night football game where Watson threw the pick six
04:50to Highsmith out of the gate.
04:52Yeah, I was going to list of the quarterbacks that have beaten the Steelers,
04:55and obviously Shador came to top of mind in that game last year where the Steelers scored six total points,
05:00and it just kind of felt like the whole entire game was how do we play keep away from Miles
05:04setting any sort of record against us?
05:05That was a really funny subplot to the end of last year.
05:08That was just a ridiculous end-of-season outcome for the Browns of teams that were just handing victories to
05:15Kevin Stefanski
05:16because they didn't want Miles to get the sack.
05:172-1-6-4-7-4-2-0-92.
05:19If the Browns beat the Steelers and go 3-1, do you have to change what you thought this season
05:23could be?
05:24Michael up next on the fan.
05:25What's up, Michael?
05:27Hey, how's it going, guys?
05:28Hey, Michael.
05:28What's on your mind?
05:31In my opinion, I was thinking like at the beginning of the season, even before the season started,
05:36I was thinking probably like maybe five to six wins, but if the Steelers or if the Browns win tomorrow
05:42against Pittsburgh,
05:44there could be a great potential they could compete for the AFC North title this year.
05:49As funny enough as that sounds, and I don't even remember the last time that I thought about that.
05:54It's been probably like four to five years, probably since that 2020 or 2021 playoff run.
06:00Yeah, I mean, well, it's been since 89, the year of my birth, since the Browns won the AFC North.
06:04So it's been a long time since they've won it.
06:06So even just the thought process of it, it's probably been since somewhere around that Baker stretch, Michael.
06:11It wasn't even called the North then.
06:13It was called the Central.
06:14Yeah, exactly.
06:15But it is interesting.
06:17You can hear it.
06:18I think there's a part of doing it against the Steelers.
06:21Even as you point out, we've been able to get the Steelers more times than not, even through some bad
06:26years recently.
06:26But there's something validating to this fan base about beating the Steelers.
06:31I don't know what that is.
06:33Because that's the historic organization that's got these Super Bowl trophies on the shelf.
06:35And even though, yeah, the recent history has been nice to us, the macro of it, the post-1999,
06:42I sat in that stadium as a little kid a lot of Sundays against Pittsburgh and watched them come to
06:48Cleveland and just put the boots to us.
06:50I also think there's respect there because AFC North football is different than NFC South football.
06:54And right now, two of our wins against the NFC South.
06:56No one in football has got respect for the NFC South.
06:59Let's be honest about it.
07:00We don't respect it.
07:00It's the worst division in the entire sport on a consistent basis.
07:04And so there is something about the style of play.
07:07NFC South, good weather, a little softer of teams.
07:10You guys know what I'm getting at here.
07:11AFC North, that's our type of football.
07:14And so we want to know how we stack up against our type of football.
07:17You know, the cold weather cities, the teams that rely on the run game, the team that all these type
07:22of things.
07:23And so I think that's where the interest lies in.
07:25And so if you can beat the Steelers in a our game versus their game mentality,
07:29not taking on any of these teams that go to these nice warm weather places and play bad divisional teams.
07:35I think that part matters to the fan base.
07:38I realize what my battle is going to be tomorrow, and I'm not thrilled about the development of it.
07:44I don't love historical trends when it comes to any isolated single game.
07:50I told you that, dude, in the early hours of this show, that the one thing that stresses me out
07:56a little bit is that everybody's talking about how great the Browns are on Thursday.
07:59No, no, no, no, no, no, you got the wrong read on this one.
08:01You got the wrong read on this one.
08:03You're scared of it because you think that it's some sort of, like, I don't know, voodoo magic or something
08:08that's happening or something.
08:09And this is the battle I got to fight.
08:10I'm pulling out my sword right now, and this is the battle I got to fight, and I don't like
08:14this battle.
08:15Each year is independent of itself.
08:17And so, like, it works on its own basis.
08:19What happened last year does not reflect into what happened this year.
08:23And this game in particular, where you have brand new coaches on each sideline, you have a second-year quarterback
08:30with Aaron Rodgers at 42 years old,
08:32and a brand-new quarterback for the Browns, all things considered, because he wasn't the guy even there last year.
08:37You got a lot of new characters here, a lot of new rookies, a lot of new faces.
08:41What happened in years past does not matter for what happens tomorrow.
08:47And I won't be able to convince people like yourself that that's the case, but I'm telling you, it's the
08:52case.
08:53And you just have to believe me because I can't.
08:55What am I going to tell you?
08:57What am I going to tell you?
08:57No, it doesn't.
08:58You won't believe that.
09:01So are you somebody like, do you not believe in fate all that much?
09:05No, I believe in none of this.
09:06This is the problem.
09:07I have this all the time with so many people.
09:09We've gone over this, like, with the baby.
09:11We've joked about it on the show because Nick believes in, like, baseball gods and basketball gods and football gods.
09:16And, like, me saying something and putting it out of the universe somehow actually affects what's going to happen on
09:22the field of play.
09:22And I believe in none of that.
09:24So you don't believe in jinxes?
09:25No, not at all.
09:26Oh, dude.
09:26How could I?
09:27I'm an adult.
09:28I'm not 10 years old.
09:29What do you mean?
09:29How do I not?
09:30What are you talking about?
09:32But I know that's the problem.
09:33The battle I have tomorrow is going up way too many people that'll be like, well, look at the historical
09:38trends.
09:39The Browns just owned the Steelers on Thursday night football.
09:43And I'll come back with telling all sorts of different other things.
09:46Aaron Rodgers and the fact that he's never thrown an interception against the Browns.
09:50Mike McCarthy, you want to fight fire with fire?
09:52Mike McCarthy's won seven straight Thursday night football games himself.
09:56And I think he's, like, at all time, he's, like, 16 and 6.
09:59The dam's got a break somewhere, does it not?
10:01But, like, where does that line fall for people?
10:03I'm not entirely sure.
10:04But I already know it.
10:05I can tell.
10:06My frustration tomorrow.
10:07We're going to have a lot of fun tomorrow.
10:09We've got all sorts of pregame stuff lined up.
10:11It's going to be a great day.
10:12We're going to have a Browns win.
10:13It's going to be all sorts of fun.
10:14My frustration tomorrow is going to be convincing people like yourself that what happened in the past has no bearing
10:20on what is going to happen tomorrow.
10:22And the past seven years are in no way, shape, or form going to go ahead and dictate what happens
10:28tomorrow night at all.
10:29Okay.
10:30I hope you're right.
10:32What's the Michael Scott quote?
10:36I'm not superstitious, but I am a little stitious.
10:40That's how I feel going into Thursday night football.
10:42I don't know that I love the fact that the Browns have dominated this time slot against this team right
10:48now.
10:48I don't love it because I want the Browns to win this game so bad.
10:52I want to be flying high.
10:54Is that the idea?
10:54That is a little piece of it.
10:56Wouldn't you have felt they're due at 6-0 as well then?
10:58And at 5-0 the same way?
11:00And at probably at 4-0?
11:01There's more pressure here.
11:01There's more pressure here because I could be 3-1 in first place in this AFC North.
11:06I control my destiny.
11:07The stakes are high.
11:08You have to start looking at this.
11:10And you look at it whatever you want.
11:11I don't want to tell you what to do.
11:12But think of it like a roulette wheel.
11:16Okay?
11:17It's black or it's red.
11:19And I guess you can throw green in there because it takes like three spaces on the wheel now.
11:23I don't know how we ended up with three spaces of green.
11:25But now we got like three spaces of green.
11:26But it's black or it's red.
11:29And each spin does not remember the previous spin.
11:34That doesn't exist.
11:35Now, you want to talk about inside the season.
11:37There's all sorts of things we can figure out because you're dealing with the same team.
11:40You're dealing with a lot of the same players and the same coaches and everything like that.
11:43But why it doesn't travel from season to season, each season is independent of itself.
11:47You have all sorts of different rosters.
11:49And I do feel like, if you want to tell me Mike Tomlin has certain tendencies, that's different.
11:53Head coaches matter when it comes to traveling and Thursday night football.
11:57How they prepare for Thursday night football.
11:58How they prepare for Sunday night football.
12:00100% believe in that.
12:01But we have a brand new head coach for the Steelers.
12:05And a brand new head coach for the Browns.
12:07So we have two brand new formulas that exist here that didn't exist previously.
12:11I think you have to throw the record books out.
12:13I don't think you can treat the Browns-Stewers games the way you would have in the past when it
12:17was Stefanski versus Tomlin.
12:19And we knew Tomlin wanted to get into a knife fight in the mud.
12:22I don't think it exists the same way.
12:24In years past, I would have said sure.
12:25But I think we have to look at this independent of what happens years past.
12:30If you were walking up to a roulette wheel, though, and you were intending on putting your chips on, call
12:40it Red 12.
12:42And right as you're walking up to the wheel, Red 12 is the one that hits.
12:47Probably not putting it on Red 12 again.
12:50Right?
12:52That's where the superstition comes in a little bit.
12:55Your math is the same either way.
12:56That's the part you're missing on that.
12:57But the superstition is not.
12:59Because you're thinking to yourself there's no way that hits again.
13:01It's the superstition.
13:03The roulette wheel doesn't know what hit before it.
13:06The roulette wheel doesn't have a brain.
13:07It doesn't understand what hit before it.
13:10I think this is the biggest rage bait I've ever had.
13:13Nick rage baits me all the time.
13:14You not understanding simple roulette math and how it works in the wheel is going to drive me insane.
13:20So you're telling me if you were walking up to the wheel with multiple chips in your hand.
13:24Yes, it doesn't have a brain.
13:25And you were fully intending on putting it on Red 12.
13:27The wheel doesn't know.
13:28It could go Red 12 75 times in a row.
13:31I'm still putting it on Red 12.
13:33If I was convinced that I was going to put it on Red 12 before I ever showed up, I'm
13:38still putting it on Red 12.
13:40The red wheel does not know.
13:42It doesn't have an understanding of what happened previously.
13:44And you have the same odds for each independent spin.
13:47Now, what is different in the NFL in this part of the equation, and I will grant this from year
13:51to year.
13:52If you have coaches have tendencies, coaches have tendencies.
13:55And, and, and some coaches coach Tuesday or sorry, Thursday night football and Sunday night football and Monday night football
14:01differently.
14:01But I think this is the one time that we can realistically apply my roulette wheel logic and make it
14:08work from one year to the next because you don't have Tomlin coaching.
14:11You don't have Stefanski coaching.
14:12I just don't know that I like the roulette wheel logic in and of itself, because if I'm walking up
14:17to a roulette wheel and I'm going to put it on 12 red, because that's usually what I brought it
14:21on.
14:21I shouldn't have brought the roulette wheel to play.
14:22This is blowing your brain for some reason.
14:24If it hits 12 red, I'm changing course.
14:26I'm probably putting it on the furthest thing from 12 red, because that just hit.
14:32I'm putting it on 36 black.
14:36I can't help you.
14:38I can't.
14:39There's levels to this.
14:40And I can't, I can't help you.
14:41I can't, I can't help you.
14:42And I can't pick up.
14:43I can't move you.