00:00We're looking for a named storm to form in the Gulf over the next 24 hours and not only
00:07does this organize and strengthen into a tropical storm as it drifts north
00:12Thursday into Friday it is going to approach hurricane status. We are forecasting this to
00:18become a hurricane on Friday. However as it approaches the Central Gulf Coast states
00:23as we head into the weekend it will lose wind intensity but not moisture and you could even
00:29see on the satellite picture. The area in the Bay of Campeche look at the red yellows and
00:35oranges growing outward. It's getting better organized and it's over very warm water. Also
00:42when you look at the other formation factors it has sufficient moisture. Now the limiting
00:47factor for strength is the wind shear. It's not zero but it's not high either. We think
00:54that the wind shear is low enough that this will become a hurricane as we get into Thursday
01:01and Friday. As it drifts northward it starts encountering stronger wind shear as we get
01:07into Friday night and especially Saturday. It should lose wind intensity but not moisture.
01:13Also keep in mind because of that wind shear coming in out of the west southwest the impacts
01:19will be tilted to the right of the center of circulation. So to the right of the storm that's
01:25where you're going to have the strongest winds, the strongest storm surge, the heaviest rain
01:30and also there will be a tornado threat.
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