00:00We're going to take a look at this tropical wave here on the feed off the African coast.
00:04We're going to do more of a meteorological dissection of this wave.
00:09Now, we've been talking about this on the AccuWeather Network for the last few days,
00:12but what the feed allows me to do is be a little more technical.
00:16And I want to show you the tools that I use on an everyday basis here.
00:22This one's going to be tricky because what I think is going to happen is
00:25it's going to try to develop in the next couple of days, then it's going to get ripped apart.
00:30And then the question is, is as we get into next week, where is it?
00:35Because there is an area not too far away from the United States where conditions will be favorable for development.
00:41All right. One thing at a time, though.
00:44Let's take a look at this. Let's take a look at this tropical wave.
00:47This is the one that we've been tracking. Here it is.
00:49Now, I must I must tell you, these these waves coming across the tropical Atlantic, they can be really tricky.
00:57But what you're looking for here is do you have a lot of reds on the satellite picture?
01:03Yes. And does do these showers and thunderstorms denoted by the red continue for a fairly long time?
01:10You don't want them cycling up and down, up and down.
01:14But I do see a consistent area of showers and thunderstorms.
01:17Now, I do believe that conditions are somewhat favorable for some development in the next couple of days.
01:24I want to look at a couple of things here.
01:27Number one, we always talk about dry air because think about it.
01:32Dry air dissipates instability and will dissipate the tropical wave.
01:37Dry air and wind shear. I'm not going to worry about water temperatures.
01:40They're warm enough in here.
01:41But do we have any dry air coming into the storm?
01:44And I don't think we do.
01:47You do have dry air somewhat in its path here, but you could see that there's more moisture in its
01:53path over the last 24 hours.
01:55But what I don't see is any of the dry air coming into the system.
01:58I see it being pushed away.
02:00So I don't think dry air is going to be a limiting factor.
02:04The next thing we want to take a look at is wind shear.
02:08Do we have wind shear in the area?
02:11And the answer is, at least in the short term, I don't think that we do.
02:15Let me show you what I'm looking at.
02:16I want to show you the European model just as one of the tools.
02:22And let's take a look at the wind shear here.
02:25Let me put it a double back here.
02:26So this is the tropical wave right here.
02:29You see all the yellow, oranges, and red.
02:31So that's it.
02:32Now, this is going to be moved along the southern periphery of this high.
02:38And it's going to move to the west-northwest over the next couple of days.
02:43Now, here it is moving.
02:45Now, the European says this is just going to get choked and diminish within the next 24 hours.
02:51I'm not sure that's right.
02:53And the reason I say that is that when you look at the wind shear, and there's a couple of
02:56products you can use.
02:57I look at the 200 millibar field here.
03:00So this system, to me, is, let me put this up here.
03:07So this system is going to be going into this area right in here.
03:13And when you look at it, what I see is a clockwise flow.
03:18You've got an upper high in here, which represents low wind shear.
03:22You see that?
03:24That's one wind shear product we can look at.
03:26But if I look at another one, again, I see this area of blue right in here where you've got
03:36lower wind shear.
03:37Let me show you another perspective.
03:39That's one wind shear thing.
03:41Let me show you the other wind shear product right here.
03:43See, the wind shear is up here.
03:47So that tells me over the next couple of days, it's in an area where you don't have dry air
03:51and you don't have wind shear.
03:52And I think it's going to go to a tropical depression.
03:55Does it become a hurricane in the next two days?
03:57Probably not.
03:58But I do think it can be a tropical depression and or storm.
04:01Now, the National Hurricane Center is lowering the probabilities here.
04:03We're not going to do that.
04:05We still think there's a better than 70% chance this could become a tropical depression in the next day
04:11or two.
04:11But then things go the other way because as we move forward with this system, it starts to track by
04:19late in the weekend right in here.
04:22Okay, so what does the wind shear look like right in there?
04:25And this is by the time we get into Sunday and Monday.
04:29There's going to be a lot of wind shear in here.
04:32See, what I see wind shear wise as we get into the weekend is I see a lot of wind
04:39shear.
04:39200 millibar, you have a dip in the jet stream here.
04:42And that tells me there's wind shear in here.
04:45And that tells me, okay, even if this system develops, I think it gets sheared apart and weakens as we
04:53move into Sunday and Monday.
04:54Now, here's the real question.
04:56What happens to it then?
04:59There's a couple of things that may happen with this as we get into Sunday and Monday.
05:04There is a trough in here that will try to pick this up north of the islands.
05:10Now, if that happens, it's game, set, match.
05:12Whatever is left of it goes away from the United States and we don't have to worry.
05:16But I am concerned, and some of the AI models show this as well, that this system in a weakened
05:23state continues to move and gets into this area middle part of next week.
05:30So now we're talking about September 2nd or 3rd.
05:33Okay.
05:34So the fork in the road is going to be right in here Sunday into Monday.
05:39Now, if this system heads north, it's game, set, match.
05:43But I'm worried that it could survive.
05:46Now, the question is how much survives, because this is really going to get knocked down.
05:50But let's say it survives.
05:54As you get in the middle part of next week, what do I see here?
05:58I see low wind shear in this area, and this is where it would go, somewhere in here.
06:04That's a wind shear product at 200 millibars.
06:06What is the other?
06:07Look at the low wind shear near Cuba and the Bahamas.
06:10It's very little.
06:12So you have warm water, light wind shear.
06:15The question is, is how much is left?
06:17If there's nothing left of this system, put it this way, it has to start from scratch and start with
06:22the development process all over.
06:23But there's low wind shear in here, and what I see is an upper high in here is where in
06:31the steering flow that would take this toward the east coast of the United States late next week.
06:35So that's the question.
06:37If this survives and it can get into the southwest Atlantic east of Florida late next week, watch out.
