00:00For the last, let's say, 30 days, we've been highlighting the Gulf and the Southeast Atlantic as areas to watch
00:09for development.
00:10It hasn't happened yet. And I do think, moving forward, that is an area to watch.
00:15But I must tell you, as the title says, I'm not impressed for development.
00:19I think, in the end, there's just going to be too much wind shear.
00:23All right, I'm going to explain why in a second. A really quick review.
00:26Not too long, but here's where we are right now. Eight named storms.
00:31We should be at about 11. All right.
00:33So we're running below historical averages, maybe about a month.
00:38By the way, we're running about a month, if not a month and a half ahead of where we should
00:47be in the eastern Pacific.
00:48So it kind of averages out below in the Atlantic, well above in the eastern Pacific.
00:52But eight named storms below historical averages.
00:55But here's the big story. No hurricanes.
00:58This is the latest occurrence of the first hurricane in over 100 years.
01:04Now, it gets a little tricky because before 1966, you didn't have satellites.
01:09So there could have been hurricanes out in the Atlantic we didn't see.
01:12But having said that, the last time we had a hurricane this late, and I believe it was September 21st,
01:181941.
01:20All right. Now, there were two years that we didn't have any hurricanes.
01:24I think it was 1907 and 1914. But again, that was before the satellite era.
01:29But, I mean, it's been very quiet not to have any hurricanes.
01:32We should have five hurricanes right now. We don't have any.
01:36And of those five hurricanes, we should have two majors. That's category three or greater.
01:40We don't have any.
01:41So, I mean, that's pretty significant.
01:44We have had impacts, though, on the United States, no doubt about that.
01:51Edward, Arthur, and Bertha.
01:53Bertha did have impacts, but I think it was pretty negligible.
01:56There were significant impacts with Arthur, by the way, although I must say Arthur had more impacts when it was
02:03a tropical rainstorm than it was a tropical storm, quite honestly.
02:07And Edward brought rain and wind, and that almost was a hurricane.
02:12So, that's something to keep an eye on.
02:14And I believe Faye's going to have to be watched.
02:17You know, it got close to hurricane status.
02:20I believe it was Faye, but it did not.
02:21In some reanalysis later in the season, perhaps it will be.
02:25But right now, no hurricanes.
02:27All right.
02:28Now, having said that, let me show where we are right now.
02:33We do have a lot of noise going on in the Atlantic Basin as far as showers and thunderstorms.
02:40You can see a few tropical waves that we're watching.
02:44One, one, one, one.
02:46Look at all of this noise in the Gulf and Caribbean.
02:52You can see why we're worried about that area.
02:54You have an upper low in here, and it's pulling areas north.
02:57But here's the problem.
02:58And this has been the huge issue all year.
03:02Look at the wind shear.
03:03I mean, you do have pockets of low wind shear in here.
03:08You can see it with the light purples, right?
03:10But let's say you get a tropical wave coming off Africa that makes it into this area south of 20
03:17degrees north.
03:18Okay, it develops.
03:19But then, before we get to the United States, here's a wind shear.
03:22Here's a wind shear.
03:24Here's a wind shear.
03:25Here's a wind shear.
03:26So, nothing can develop and get to the United States.
03:29I'm not complaining about that.
03:31I mean, it makes life a lot better, but that's what's been going on.
03:36There's just too much wind shear.
03:38So, the question is, is why?
03:40Well, the Super El Nino.
03:41Usually, during El Nino's, strong wind shear in the Atlantic Basin, and then conditions more favorable in the eastern Pacific.
03:50That's where we've been.
03:50Now, this is what we call a Super El Nino, and I have some stats for you, and this is
03:55the kind of stuff you've got to look at here.
03:58You know, since 1950, we've had three Super El Ninos, 82, 97, and 2015.
04:07Of those years, there's only been two hurricanes during the month of October, or after October 1st.
04:14That was 2015 with Joaquin and Kate.
04:17The other years, 1982 and 1997, there wasn't any.
04:23So, I think odds are against any hurricanes forming from here on out.
04:27I think odds are against it.
04:28Now, when you look at the breeding grounds in October, this is where you look.
04:33You start looking closer to home.
04:35September, the entire basin is open for business.
04:38But in October, you start getting closer and closer to the United States.
04:42Now, as I mentioned, we've got a lot of noise going on right now in the Caribbean.
04:47You've got an upper low in here.
04:49You can see it spinning, and you've got a lot of showers and thunderstorms in here.
04:53Now, this upper low is going to be sitting in the Bay of Campeche as we go forward here.
04:59But the question is, is what is going to form in there?
05:04So, there's the upper low.
05:06You can see it.
05:07You see it right in here?
05:08So, it's sitting in very warm water.
05:11But here's the problem for development.
05:13Look at the wind shear.
05:14I'm going to show you two different wind shears.
05:15You've got two.
05:16This is 200 millibars high up in the atmosphere.
05:20Southeasterly wind shear, right?
05:22All right, let's look at the other wind shear product.
05:24Too much wind shear.
05:25Now, there's low wind shear for a time in this era on Saturday.
05:30But watch as we get in the Sunday.
05:33You've got too much wind shear in here.
05:35So, okay, let's say something would try to form in here.
05:38As it tries to go north, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, look at the wind shear.
05:42It strengthens in the Wednesday.
05:44You see that?
05:46This system is going to try to develop, but I don't think there's a way it gets to the United
05:50States.
05:50And I don't think we have any concerns there.
05:54We're going to keep an eye on it.
05:55We have this highlighted in here.
05:58We have it highlighted for a low development area.
06:02I just think even if it tries to develop and comes north, it won't make it.
06:06I just think there's too much wind shear.
06:09And this is a problem we've seen all year.
06:12Now, later in the period, next week, the next thing to watch is this frontal boundary that's going to come
06:19south.
06:21Right here.
06:22See?
06:22Thursday, Friday, you've got a front in here.
06:25Lots of showers and thunderstorms in here, right?
06:27Okay, what does the wind shear look like during this period?
06:30Well, take a look at it.
06:33Too much wind shear.
06:34This is next week.
06:35How is anything going to develop in here?
06:38So we're going to watch this area.
06:40But as I mentioned, Bernie is very skeptical of anything forming here in the next two weeks.
06:48We'll keep an eye on it.
06:49I just don't think it happens.
06:50And that's the feed.
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