00:00Well, there's no question that we're going to be looking at a name storm in the Gulf within the
00:05next 48 hours. And I must admit, I was very skeptical of this setup last week. I thought
00:12there was too much wind shear, which there is, but I think there's going to be enough
00:17lowering of the wind shear that we're going to get a storm and we could get a hurricane. I want
00:20to give you an idea of the timeline here as we go through this week here. So this is going
00:27to
00:27organize. It already is. This could be a storm tomorrow or tomorrow night on Wednesday night.
00:34The day for strengthening or days is going to be Thursday and Friday as it drip north. Now,
00:41yesterday I was thinking about, we were thinking about 15 to 20% chance of a hurricane. We've upped
00:46that probability to 45% chance right now. It will approach, I think, mostly the central Gulf Coast
00:53states this weekend, more likely on Saturday than Sunday. And while it will lose wind intensity,
00:59it's going to have a huge impact with heavy rain. And I think there's going to be the threat
01:05for tornadoes with this on the eastern side of the track where it comes in. And I'll show
01:10you an iPad coming on up. Just to give you an idea of what we're looking at as far as
01:14the
01:14name, it's back. Isaias, that will be the next name. That will be our ninth name storm once
01:20this forms. We should have, I think, 11 storms. And don't forget, we have not had a hurricane
01:26yet. Not a hurricane yet. This is the latest first occurrence of a hurricane that we've
01:33had since, I think it was September 21st, 1941. So we're in a hundred years. Let me show you
01:39what it looks like on the satellite picture here. All right. Now, let me do a little two-shot
01:45here. Okay. There it is in here. Now, what you're starting to see is a consolidation of the showers
01:53and thunderstorms. Before it was blah, blah, blah, blah. Now it's just one area starting to get
02:00focused here in the Bay of Campeche. That tells me it's organizing. Now, it's best to keep things
02:06simple. All right. Why is this going to strengthen? Well, you always have the three main ingredients
02:14for that. And it's always the same. Warm water, limited wind shear, and sufficient moisture.
02:21Let's talk about the warm water first. No problem with that. We have that in spades. I mean, water
02:26temperatures are in the middle 80s. The benchmark is 78 to 80 degrees. So we have plenty of that.
02:33Warm water, that's not a concern. Now, drier air. There has been some pockets of dry air, but I want
02:40to watch, I want you to watch what happens here. You start getting the green showing up here, and you
02:45see the, you see how the dry air starts pushing this way. Watch. Watch. You start seeing the green
02:51in here. Watch this dry air. Last couple frames. See how it's getting pushed away. All right. So you
02:59have sufficient moisture. The question is going to be the wind shear. That's the only thing that's going
03:06to stop it. And while it's not ideal, I think over the next few days, you're going to be in
03:12low enough
03:12wind shear that this is going to develop here. Let me show you what we're looking at here. I'm going
03:16to show you the center of circulation at around 5,000 feet. I like, I like doing that. And you
03:22could see
03:22how this is going to strengthen here. So here we are. This is this morning. And watch right here. You
03:29see, you start seeing this low pressure when this is Wednesday night, right in here. Okay. So there it
03:36is. Now, uh, what's going to be steering this system is this upper low. That's going to be across Texas.
03:43You see it right in here. Let me put this here. Watch this upper low right in here. This should
03:50steer
03:51this system right here and push it to the North. Now there's some modeling that suggests this could go
03:58back toward the upper Texas coast. I don't believe that historically. That's not where these systems
04:03go. They typically are central and East coast. So we're going to lean in that solution. But I think
04:09this upper low moving forward will guide this. Where is it? Right here. Should guide it right here.
04:15You've got the upper low here. This is Friday night here. That should guide this northward toward the
04:21central Gulf coast. All right. With that, let's take a look at this system. So here it is as we
04:27head
04:27into tomorrow morning. Let's say tomorrow evening. So here's the area of low pressure. It's right here.
04:34What is the wind shear look like? Well, let's take a look at it. Here's the wind shear. This is
04:38a 200
04:39millibars. And what I see is air spreading apart. Difluent flow aloft. That means surface inflow or
04:49lower wind shear. Let me show you the wind shear product. Okay. You see where we are here? Let me
04:54put
04:54this up here for a second. Right in here. So this system, Wednesday evening, is tucked in this lower
05:01wind shear. All the wind shear is up in here. Okay. Let's move forward. Let's go to Thursday
05:07afternoon. All right. And I think the modeling is correct. It's right around in here. All right.
05:12North of the Yucatan Peninsula. What's the wind shear like? All right. See, it's in here. Now, the wind
05:18shear, lower wind shear, the side is more of the blue light yellow colors. But notice we have the strong
05:23wind shear up in here near the Gulf Coast. You see that Thursday night. So it's in low
05:28wind shear. Watch Friday. This is Friday morning. Where is it? It's somewhere in here. What's the
05:37wind shear like? It's tucked in here, right in here. Wind shear is up in here. And as you continue
05:46to show
05:46this wind shear right in here, here's Saturday morning, stronger wind shear up here near the Gulf
05:54Coast. Where's the system? Up in here. So that tells me this system has from now, Tuesday,
06:03until Friday evening to consolidate and strengthen because there's low wind shear in there.
06:09But as it approaches the Gulf Coast states on Saturday, it runs in the wind shear. Let me show
06:16you the AccuWeather eyepath here. So we believe this will be a tropical storm. If it becomes a
06:22hurricane, it's right in here. Right in here, Thursday into Friday. It should lose wind intensity
06:30as it makes landfall somewhere between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle as a tropical
06:37storm. But this could become our first hurricane. This could change a little bit. But right now,
06:42we have landfall as a tropical storm. Central Gulf Coast states, Saturday morning.
