00:00We're still tracking our tropical wave, many hurdles for this to overcome.
00:04However, it could impact the United States later next week.
00:10I want to go over the hurdles, and I'm going to explain once again why I'm still worried about this
00:16wave for the southeast coast of the United States.
00:19I'll explain why.
00:21Let's go over, first of all, what this looks like on the satellite here this morning.
00:27It got a little better organized over the last 24 hours.
00:32You can see a circular area.
00:33You don't see clusters here, clusters here, clusters here.
00:36It's one cluster.
00:38It has started to scale down just a little bit, a little bit, but nonetheless, it has gotten better organized.
00:46We still have a high risk for this as we go through today.
00:51I want to give you an idea of what we're looking at.
00:53Now, the organizational time west of the islands is only until Wednesday, so that's the organization time.
01:01It will approach the lesser utilities this weekend, and it is possible this system just dissipates,
01:09and it dissipates and weakens so much that it will not be of any concern to the United States.
01:18That is a possibility.
01:19Let me explain what's going on.
01:22First of all, yesterday we were talking about how the dry air wasn't all that impressive around the system.
01:29That has changed quite a bit today.
01:33Let me show you the satellite.
01:34Now, yesterday in its path, you saw a lot more blue and a lot more white in its path.
01:40Notice what's going on here.
01:41You've got a ton of dry air, and not only is it dry air, but look at all this orange
01:46in here.
01:47You start getting orange in its path.
01:51That's telling you there's a ton of dry air.
01:54And the dry air is also notable near the lesser utilities.
01:58The other thing you can clearly see on this, you can see the belt of wind shear that goes from
02:03Venezuela all the way up into the central Atlantic.
02:08So, a lot of wind shear in this area right now, and that is why this system has a very
02:14limited time to develop.
02:16After today, it is going to start feeling that wind shear.
02:20I can show this to you.
02:21I want to show you the modeling here, and I'll explain what's going on.
02:26So, this is the European model.
02:29Here's the tropical wave later today in here.
02:33Now, it's being steered by this area of high pressure.
02:36That will continue to move it first to the west, and then as it gets along the western side of
02:42the upper high, you get more of a southeast steering flow, and then it moves to the west-northwest.
02:49And you can see that movement as from this morning, and then you see it starts moving to the northwest
02:56here by Saturday morning.
02:58Now, a couple of things going on here, and I could show it to you this way, too.
03:03Here it is.
03:03I'll put an area of low pressure.
03:05You can see the winds on the northern side.
03:08Let's follow it along.
03:09This is this evening, tomorrow morning, tomorrow afternoon, tomorrow evening, and then by the weekend.
03:16Here it is right here in a weekend fashion just north of the Leeward Islands, so north and west of
03:24Puerto Rico.
03:24What's going on in this area by the time we get into Saturday north of Puerto Rico is that you've
03:30got a tremendous amount of wind show.
03:31I'll show you a couple of products.
03:33I like looking at this one.
03:34This is the winds high up in the atmosphere, 200 millibars.
03:37And by the time we get into Saturday and Sunday, it's located here, and you could see you've got a
03:43trough here.
03:44You've got wind flow here.
03:45So this is going to get shredded.
03:47I mean, these tropical systems, especially when it is moving against the prevailing wind shear.
03:55In this case, you have this system moving in from the west and from the east, and the wind shear
04:02is in the opposite direction.
04:03It's like a paper shredder.
04:05It just dissipates it.
04:06And that's why I think, feel pretty strongly, this is really going to weaken.
04:09Here's another look at it.
04:11And again, it's coming into this headwind.
04:14Think about yourself when you're walking on the beach, for example.
04:17When you're walking with winds at your back, it helps you.
04:20But when you're walking into the wind, it makes it difficult.
04:23Same thing here.
04:25So this is going to cause this to dissipate.
04:27There's no question about that.
04:28Or lose its organization.
04:30As we get into Sunday, Monday, there's just too much wind shear.
04:33But I want to show you this.
04:35Look what goes on here.
04:37As we get into early next week, north of Cuba and across Florida and north of Hispaniola.
04:43Almost no wind shear.
04:45Very light wind shear.
04:46That's the wind shear product.
04:48Let me show you.
04:48It looks like a 200 millibar.
04:50And what you see here is the outline of kind of a weak upper high in here.
04:56But still, you do not have any wind shear.
04:59So the question becomes, okay, what happens to this on Sunday?
05:05Now, we've had this graphic showing you there is still a slight chance.
05:10Although I don't think it's, I think it's a much lower chance that this gets pulled north by a trough
05:17coming into the Atlantic.
05:19I don't think the trough is strong enough.
05:20In fact, I can show you that here quick early next week.
05:24Let me show you the 500 millibar early next week and you can see what I mean.
05:27So we're talking about Monday.
05:29See, it's this trough here.
05:32Is this really going to be strong enough to pick this and pull it north?
05:35I don't think so.
05:36I've always been skeptical of that.
05:37So I think this does continue on its merry way to the west.
05:41But the question remains is, okay, as it moves in that direction, what's left of it?
05:48Put it this way.
05:49Right now, this tropical wave is about, if zero is no organization and 10 is a tropical wave or a
05:57tropical depression, it's probably around a six.
06:00By the time it gets through in the here, it's going to be at a zero or one.
06:03And the other problem is, if this tracks in the Hispaniola or near Hispaniola, if it tracks south of Hispaniola,
06:10it's game, set, match.
06:12There won't be anything left of this.
06:13All right?
06:14So the question is, is what's left of it?
06:18But I will say this.
06:19If it maintains itself and there's some semblance of circulation, then we have a problem.
06:25Because when you look at the 500 millibar early next week in this area, what do I see?
06:31I see an high pressure here.
06:33This trough misses it.
06:34And there's a pathway for this to come toward Florida, maybe even into the Gulf or the southeast coast of
06:39the United States.
06:40So the fork in the road is early this weekend.
06:43What's left of this system?
06:44If it survives in the next week in the southwest Caribbean, we could have some problems.
06:49So the first thing is, if it survives, we could have some problems.
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