00:00Well, I don't know how many times I've said this, the Atlantic is quiet and it shouldn't be quiet, although
00:06we are in October now.
00:08But as you take a look at the Atlantic, we don't have any organized tropical systems now.
00:12We do have clusters of thunderstorms in the eastern and central Pacific.
00:17This is an area to watch as we move forward. More on that in a second right now.
00:23But the problem in the Atlantic Basin for development has been wind shear.
00:27We've had so much of it, which is typical during an El Nino year.
00:31Now, you'll notice we do have some areas in the light purple off of Africa where we don't have a
00:37lot of wind shear, although it's awfully far south.
00:40But even if something comes across the Atlantic, there's so much wind shear in its path before it gets to
00:46the United States, denoted by that dark purple,
00:49that we're just not going to be looking at any tropical waves coming off Africa to be able to make
00:55it into the United States.
00:56Now, we are into the time of the year where you do start looking a little closer to home.
01:01We are in October right now.
01:03When you look at the breeding grounds for October, you go from September where the whole basin is open and
01:10you start shrinking it a little bit here.
01:12And in particular, you start looking for frontal boundaries and jet stream disturbances that can start tropical development.
01:21It's called homegrown development.
01:22Now, take a look where we have a lot of showers and thunderstorms right now in the Caribbean and in
01:28the Gulf.
01:29Listen, I think there's going to be two opportunities for development here in the Gulf the next 14 days.
01:34The first will be the middle part of next week as something moves toward the Bay of Campeche.
01:38If something forms down here, could move toward the United States.
01:42And then keep an eye on late next week and over the upcoming weekend.
01:45And then keep an eye on late next week and over the weekend.
01:46And then keep an eye on late next week and over the weekend.
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