00:00All right, November is the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season and off the east coast
00:05we have upgraded the possibility of a named tropical storm or subtropical storm, even
00:13depression, and we're moderate risk with the time frame being later on this week. All right,
00:19here's what's going on. This time of the year it's typically not coming from the true tropics
00:23and that's the case with this. I want to show you what's going on. There's this little dip in the
00:28jet stream right in here across the Carolinas. You can see all the moisture denoted by the white
00:33off the east coast. So this is an upper low. All right, now what's going to happen is let's track
00:38it. It's right here. Watch what happens as it gets off the Carolina coast as we head toward tonight
00:44and then into the tomorrow. All of a sudden that upper low starts forming here and strengthening
00:50off the North Carolina coast. Now this is not a true tropical system. It's what we call a cold
00:55core system. The system that you would see during the winter time or even in the fall time. However,
01:01this area of low pressure is going to start forming showers and thunderstorms and it is over pretty
01:07warm water. You look for tropical development with water temperatures between 76 and 80. That's exactly
01:13what you were seeing right now. And this is going to sit here about three to four days. And what
01:20will
01:20end up happening is you start to get thunderstorms to form. The release of latent heat from the
01:25thunderstorm starts warming the column and all of a sudden you start talking about what would be a
01:30cold core storm to be more of a tropical system. However, while you have the warm water and the
01:35showers and thunderstorms going on, you do have a lot of wind shear. Look at the dark purple. That wind
01:40shear will prevent this system from truly developing, we think. However, with enough thunderstorms and
01:46enough warm water, it is a possibility. We'll keep an eye on it.
Comments