00:03Hello it is Sunday the 16th of August and this is your weekly weather update for South Australia,
00:08New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. We're going through all four states because there's
00:12a few sort of troughs and fronts moving through seeing rainfall that is widespread across the
00:19four states so we'll unpick that all together. Starting off though let's have a quick look at
00:23the weather warnings that we've got issued. So there's still this minor flood warning up in
00:27northern Victoria because of that quite intense rainfall last week. Now I expect that flooding to
00:34reduce a little bit over the first few days as Sunday, Monday and Tuesday should be relatively
00:39dry up in that area but then as the fronts start to move through Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday
00:46leading to this sort of long soaking rain I think there is definitely a chance that those flood
00:52warnings come back again depending on how high the reservoirs are up there. There's
00:57also some coastal surf warning down in southern Sydney as we've got some onshore flow coming
01:02into the region. Let's let's have a breakdown of the daily rainfall that's on the way we're looking
01:07at daily accumulated rainfall so this is Sunday you can see this sort of mid-level system starting to
01:14develop over South Australia just leading to light showers but this is going to come across and meet
01:19with a sort of low low pressure system with a front or trough attached to it and really intensify
01:25some of the rainfall that's on the way. So I've got that developing in South Australia and then this
01:29onshore breeze which is delivering rainfall to the coast of New South Wales this will stick around
01:35for a few days as this high keeps continuing this onshore flow in the region but for the rest of
01:41the
01:41states it's relatively settled weather it should be fairly nice and sunny across most of those regions
01:47if you're not under those sorts of little rain bursts. So similar story for Monday that mid-level
01:54development in South Australia is moving across and intensifying and then by Tuesday we're really
01:59starting to see the setup of the pattern that's about to start. So eastern South Australia, western New
02:06South Wales and this northwest bit of Victoria they're getting five to ten mils on that day and you can
02:12see
02:12here this is a little low pressure area it has a front attached to it but the bureau analysts are
02:18saying
02:18that it weakens to a trough as it moves across but it connects with this system and so we're taking
02:25sort of
02:25this low pressure and then this tropical moisture and they're coming together and they sort of stall over
02:30the area so we're about to see that on Wednesday as it starts to sort of intensify a little bit
02:36you can
02:36see this feed this feed of moisture through. We're getting pockets of sort of you know 10 to 15 mils
02:45but
02:45in northwest Tasmania 25 to 50 mils as possible and so this is over sort of the south the south
02:53coast
02:53we're starting to see that intensification and we're continuing to get that onshore rainfall
02:57along the coast of New South Wales. Moving across to Thursday this is really when it intensifies over
03:06all of the states really so we're getting consistently sort of this 15 to 25 mils which is the yellow
03:14across many regions in all of the states and then 25 to 50 mils as possible in the same alpine
03:22areas
03:22that have been hit with that flooding last week. So this is what I'm saying is I do expect that
03:28there is
03:28likely a chance of flooding as we continue towards the end of this week. Southern New South Wales is also
03:36getting quite a bit of rainfall as well but it's still remaining quite dry up here in the north which
03:41I think is a signal that we saw last week in our seasonal forecast or update on how northern New
03:48South Wales is doing in terms of drought conditions at the moment. On Friday it starts to move across a
03:55little bit but there's still rainfall it's mainly now in New South Wales and along the west coast of
04:00Tasmania and also northern South Australia is getting another five to ten mils there and then
04:06Saturday most of that system has moved across into the Tasman now and it's starting to clear up for
04:12most of those states. West coast of Tassie still getting a bit of weather there and then Sunday
04:19South Australia, New South Wales, they and Victoria all clear up as the high starts to settle in
04:24and Tasmania is just getting sort of this onshore orographic flow again which is why it's getting
04:30rainfall along the west coast. So that's the story of rainfall this week so sort of to summarize
04:37drier at the start wetter as we go on. South Australia has both that like mid-level trough and the
04:45front
04:45coming towards it whereas New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania are mainly getting when those two systems
04:51connect. Let's chat about wind. So this is I've just looked here this is the Wednesday the Thursday
04:5810 a.m wind gusts just to sort of showcase that the winds um a part of this system will
05:05actually
05:06track back a little bit to Wednesday when the low starts to approach. The winds of these systems aren't
05:14as strong as last week's so we're seeing gusts sort of 40 to 63 kilometers an hour for the most
05:20part
05:20we're definitely getting these pockets of 63 to 90 kilometers but for the most part you know it's
05:25sort of the moderate to strong winds not the strong to severe winds um that I'm seeing. Although a lot
05:31of this wind is penetrating up through the um the mainland so 20 to 30 kilometer per hour gusts
05:37and those winds sort of stick around as we get these sort of systems moving across but it should settle
05:44as we said as that high pressure moves in so we'll go to Saturday yep you can see that high
05:50pressure
05:50moving in and then settling the winds again. So that's what's happening with wind and then let's
05:55talk about temperature. So uh midday temperatures here we're looking at Thursday let's go 1 p.m just to
06:04show a little bit of a more T max sort of signal is I think fairly consistent with what we
06:11would expect
06:12this time of the year across the states um 15 to 20 degrees across sort of South Australia and New
06:17South Wales 10 to 15 across a lot of Victoria and Tassie and then still small pockets of 5 to
06:2310.
06:24And if we have a look at the team min I'm going to do the start of the week because
06:28this is when
06:29we still have a high pressure system sitting over us we would expect some quite cool mornings because
06:34of that we've got these pockets of 0 to 5 degrees across Victoria and Tasmania but they are 0 to
06:415 so
06:41it's probably fog and not frost that's on the way um especially as well because the soils are quite
06:47moist so definitely fog at the start of the week. As we move through let's have a look on Thursday
06:53morning we can see that's actually relatively warm so 5 to 10 degrees across most of these or 10 to
07:0015
07:01degrees cool. So that's the story um that we're seeing this week let's go to an overview look so this
07:09is the Saturday to Sunday total rainfall potential and we can see a lot of the weather this week is
07:15concentrated down in the southeast with these fronts that move in stall and deliver quite a bit of
07:21rainfall we're seeing large areas that are going to get 25 to 50 mils um most areas will receive I
07:28would
07:29say anywhere between 10 to 15 that's sort of the potential with an absolute max in this northwest of
07:36probably reaching sort of like the 50 to 75 mil area and then um just in the northern New South
07:42Wales area this is mainly to do with that onshore flow at the start of the week as the high
07:47pressure
07:48moves that wind that way so that's what's happening this week um I don't think there's going to be many
07:54sheet graziers warnings because it's not super cold in the morning but something to look out for as that wind
07:59rain and cool temperatures move across but otherwise it's mainly the rainfall and flooding that I would
08:06be concerned with this week as you're moving forward with planning okay have a great week do
08:11stay safe if you have any questions reach out and let us know bye
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