00:04Queensland and Northern Territory it's Sunday the 21st of June and this is your weather forecast
00:10for the week ahead. Currently we are looking at the rainfall potential for this week and we can
00:16see it's pretty dry across the two states a little bit of rain in the southeast here and potentially
00:23up in the Cairns region as well. This southeast rainfall will be finishing after Monday so this
00:30is Sunday and this is Monday there's just remnants of a low pressure system off the coast and some
00:36onshore winds bringing in a little bit of moisture but nothing crazy. The Cairns rainfall is just sort
00:44of consistent build up across the week but we'll have a look into that in particular. What I want
00:48to show you though for every other day both states super super dry so that's what we can expect. We
00:56can expect dry and also calm. The week is dominated by highs there's not a lot of wind occurring so
01:03what
01:03can we expect with calm conditions? In winter it's really cold overnight minimum temperatures so let's
01:11have a look at those maps. This is the Wednesday morning minimum temperatures which are
01:18our um our coldest day that we're looking at in the southeast where we're getting zero to five degrees
01:25celsius. With that is bringing both um frost and or fog risk to those regions um only in small pockets
01:35but
01:35definitely something to be aware of that there is a potential for frost as this week progresses. Let's um
01:43actually delve into some of these forecasts because what I'm curious about this week and I think is
01:50worth discussing is the certainty ranges that we have in these um outlooks. So let's look at Roma,
01:57Queensland which is in the southeast region. It could be getting that rainfall um on the Sunday and Monday we
02:03can see really low totals but what I want to show you is Wednesday. Wednesday for Roma has the frost
02:11risk in the
02:11morning but let's look at the pro version on Wednesday morning and I want to show you this spread in
02:19the
02:19minimum temperatures. So we've got the Australian model showing one degree, the US model showing eight
02:26degrees and then um our our AI model sort of agreeing with that one degree celsius. So that spread could
02:36be
02:37because of localized conditions that are better captured in the Australian model or because of
02:43our network of on-farm observations that might be where we're able to pick up on those low overnight
02:52temperatures in our Janesweather AI model but it's just to show there is that spread and uncertainty around
02:59it and why I bring that up is because there is a chance of frost but it could be really
03:06hit or miss
03:06depending on what we reach on those overnight minimums. The other reason of uncertainty this
03:14week also lies in this Cairns rainfall. Looking at Saturday which is a week ahead and we do expect
03:21a decent amount of uncertainty when we're that far out but we're seeing anywhere between 0 and 19
03:28millimeters of rainfall. That's a big jump and almost all 19 millimeters on that Saturday are produced by
03:36the Canadian model. So again it's just showing these different models of picking up potentially on
03:41different atmospheric variables. I did see on Thursday there's a low pressure trough developing
03:50up in that sort of northern Queensland region so maybe the Canadian models are showing it develop in a
03:55certain way than others but yeah I just wanted to show that there's that range of uncertainty here
04:00especially with that rainfall in Cairns. On almost all days it's between zero and then
04:07some amount of mils so just something to be aware of. There's also a fog risk all the way up
04:13in Cairns
04:14on Sunday maybe Friday yeah so let's see if that develops into something. As I said there's quite a bit
04:22of
04:23moisture in that atmosphere and we are reaching especially for that region quite low overnight
04:28temperatures with calm conditions so we'll see that develops. And finally just talking about
04:34northern territory obviously it's in the dry season so we don't expect much but something that's changed
04:41in the models is that a few weeks ago we were seeing the Madden-Julian oscillation staying in the drier
04:48phases at least until the start of July whereas the new models are showing that towards the end of June
04:55we're heading into some wetter phases so dry this week but maybe there's some rainfall on the horizon
05:01next week. If you're interested in any of our climate modes of variability forecasts such as
05:08ENSO or discussing the rainfall outlooks moving into July we chat about that in the national
05:16weather forecast for this week so you can go check that video out as well. Have a great week we'll
05:20see you next time.
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