00:10Hi, welcome back to Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris. Let's continue our discussion about the
00:14upcoming Melaka state elections. Joining me now is Dr. Bridget Welsh, who is an honorary
00:19research associate at University of Nottingham Malaysia's Asia Research Institute. She's got
00:25a new book coming up called Political Contestation in Modern Melaka and is expected to be published
00:31next year. Bridget, thank you so much for joining me on the show today. Can I start there about this
00:37book that you're writing? Can I ask you what makes, why Melaka? What makes Melaka a compelling
00:43case study to study how Malaysian politics is evolving? Well, I think partly because of its
00:50centrality in the center of the peninsula of Malaysia, but also because of its very rich
00:56political history. We can see when we go back, even from the 30s to the 40s and 50s, there have
01:01been pivotal times where Melaka politics has signaled what has happened. I call this the
01:06harbinger, but I also can see it as a bellwether, as a node. And you can see these, how Melaka
01:12absorbs, but also uses her local conditions of very tight social networks, the conditions on
01:20the ground in terms of strong personal politics, as well as this openness to what is around
01:26it that really transforms. So we can see this so many times in history. For example, the
01:31DAP used Melaka as its political base to build itself. The politics in the 1960s and the decline
01:38of the political left and the Malay left in particular. And so we see this in the contemporary
01:43politics, Persatu emerged as a political force here in 2021. So this is why I decided to look
01:51at Melaka. And often small places are overlooked, but they're much more important. And of course,
01:56one can always come to Melaka, not just for its politics, but for its wonderful people.
02:02Right. So with the upcoming state elections, what makes it particularly interesting?
02:06We are seeing, I guess, electoral realignments, electoral corporations. How are you unpacking
02:16or interpreting some of these? Are these genuine electoral realignments happening in real time?
02:24Yes, they are. Let's start with the BNPN cooperation. But let's remember that it really is predominantly
02:33an UMNO-PAS cooperation. And what we see is a strategic partnership. And what has happened is
02:39that this has given voters, Malay voters especially, an umbrella option. And to understand among the
02:48Malay community, this narrative of the UMA together, the Malay community together, has been around for a
02:55long time. And it has been being pushed, particularly over the last five years. And so what has happened
03:01is that this particular umbrella relationship allows for kind of Malay identity, but also for Malay
03:08security, which we saw issues in 2020 in the Sheraton move, they were also part of it, the sense of,
03:14at a time of high levels of insecurity. And it's also capturing the backlash of those that are unhappy
03:21with Anwar's governance, particularly cost of living issues. So a lot of young people come into this.
03:26So we can see this as an opposition pendulum swing. So the real issue, however, is this is going to
03:33be
03:33something permanent. And I think this is something very interesting to watch because what we've seen
03:38in past UMNO relationships is they haven't lasted very long. They've often been very strategic. And also
03:45whether or not it will fit for all the different states. I think, for example, we don't see this in
03:50Johor. Right. And so Malacca is a very interesting place where it's being tested. And then there's the
03:55realignment, of course, that is happening with Persato returning back to the Pakatan Harpan fold.
04:01Although, again, in a very loose arrangement, sort of like how Pas was originally starting in this
04:07dynamic in Johor. And we'll see how that unfolds in this contest as well. I think that alignment is
04:14going to be more challenging because the intensity of the emotion about the Sheraton move and the sense of
04:22betrayal of Pakatan Harpan voters in 2020 is still quite close to a lot of voters in terms of time.
04:30And so I think that this is something and it is seen very much. They're all pragmatic political
04:35survival moves. Let's recognize that they're all elite level dynamics. But I think that the
04:42Ph Persato connection has less resonance and a less of a kind of comfortable space in society to be
04:50able to fit into. Okay. All right. So let's start with the PNBN cooperation. You said it's mainly an
04:58UMNO pass pact. So can we, I guess, test that central trade-off in BN's strategy, in Barisan National
05:07strategy, the potential gains that may be made among Malay voters versus the possible losses that
05:14are, that could happen in the cross-ethnic appeal. MCA seat allocation, that dispute, what does it
05:22reveal to you, Bridget, about that, the trade-offs in BN's strategy? So looking at the Malay vote, we,
05:30I've, one of my articles looks at the vote transferability we found in Negri Simbilan. And I think vote
05:34transferability among Malays is high, slightly higher for past voters to beat to UMNO or to BN than others. But
05:43it also,
05:43there's variation in terms of how PAS and UMNO voters go to non-Malay parties, right? And this is where
05:50the MCA question comes in. Now, the real challenge is, is that this voter alignment is not one that wins
05:57the
05:57middle ground. And that PAS is a lightning rod for many, many voters of Chinese, especially Chinese voters.
06:05And in fact, you know, this, there is a, it's not just a trade-off. The fact is, is that
06:10this BN,
06:12you know, the BN, PN, UMNO, PAS relationship really fundamentally weakens the MCA and MIC vote space
06:22in that, in that circumstances. So the coalition allocation, what was interesting is that, you know,
06:29it was originally two seats only, and it became four. Why? Because PAS knows it has no base in Chinese
06:35seats, and it had to give those away. And I think that MCA and to a certain degree, MIC go
06:45into the
06:45Malacca contest at a much more disadvantage. All of their seats are more competitive than they were
06:52for a number of reasons, in part because of this pact. And in part also because of the way that
06:58the individual seats are configured. And so it'll be, I'm watching MCA's voter viability. And it's also
07:06more fundamental is this is also how do, where's the space for non-Malay voters in this type of
07:13environment. And this is where Pakatan Harapan hopes that the space continues to be back with them.
07:19And we're looking at the polarization of the Chinese vote or others. And this is really where
07:26there is a real battle over the Chinese vote. Well, not only with PBN, the MCA parties and others,
07:32but also PH and now Bursama. And so, and we'll see whether or not the Chinese vote stays as one
07:40unit
07:40or it splits. And I think indications on the ground are that they're splitting. We're also seeing what the
07:47other thing I'm watching besides the MCA kind of allocation is how Garakan does, for example,
07:54in Ayakura. Whether or not the Malay vote comes there, that vote transferability from the PAS and
08:00N supporters to Garakan. You know, it's, it is one of the highly competitive seats to watch. So
08:08these big issues about voting patterns, but also what they mean. I think that more generally,
08:14non-Malays feel that they are getting less political power. And, and this really, they feel they have
08:21less choices, except with the places where Bursama is contesting. And, and, and this is where we're
08:27seeing very interesting developments on the ground. Okay. Can I ask you about voter sentiment?
08:32What's your read on voter sentiment, Bridget? Because you wrote a recent op-ed in which you
08:36note that I think about 30% of Malacca's voters live outside the state, mainly in Clang Valley
08:41and in Singapore. So how much of this election is being shaped by voter sentiments, voters who may
08:48come back to vote and bring back their kind of national sentiments to a state election? And how much is
08:54it
08:55being shaped by, I guess, local candidates, local issues, and that network that you have within
09:01a constituency? So for now here in Malacca, everything is about local. It's about whether
09:07or not the candidate is good, whether or not the issues are being addressed, you know, the campaign
09:13around Ralph Youssef, who is the, the, the chief minister. And, you know, the biggest issue for many
09:19Malacca is the traffic lights and traffic and, and flooding and other things. And so right now,
09:25so far, it's been a local election about governance at the local level, but the external voters will
09:33bring in the external factors. The second factor also will be whether or not external players,
09:41national players start to campaign here and the degree to which that campaign changed the way.
09:45So it wasn't just about local voters. It was about Henri Ibrahim and Yoko Ming and others contesting
09:51in places like Johor and, and Anthony Locke factor in, in Negri Simbilan that helped to elevate it in
09:58the national contest. We will see how that evolves. My projection is that it will evolve into a national
10:05contest, but how much inevitably? And then what are the issues that are important at the national level?
10:10Cost of living, corruption questions and issues. I think that we're going to see what type of
10:18narrative evolves. It's been a bit of a sleeper of an election so far, because it's, it's still slow.
10:25But in all elections in Malaysia, things start to take on a life of their own. And the campaign really
10:31does matter in shaping the results. And going back to the turnout is crucial, going to be crucial for
10:37all sides. And traditionally, turnout has been seen to boost PH, but the last two state elections,
10:42that's not been the case. Definitely. So, so given that we've got now, I think less than two weeks
10:47of the campaign period, what are you going to be watching out for in these coming weeks, Bridget?
10:52Well, it's a, it's a very, the campaign narrative and how it evolves. The hot seats, there are 12 that
11:00I
11:00consider to be very competitive of those, at least six are really hot. A seat like Bukit Katil, for example,
11:07is very close. Other seats such as Bemban has a lot of unknown factors that are there. Also seats
11:18that are competitive, but likely lean in different directions, Machap Chaya and Gare. These are places
11:23to watch Aya Kiro. So I'm watching these hot seats. I'm looking at Bersama and Bersatu strength. Bersatu has
11:30performed very badly, but they're hoping that they can make a difference with some of their strong
11:34personalities in places like Glebong, for example. I'm looking at the non-Malay vote, whether or not it
11:40splits or it polarizes. Indian vote has become more split. Chinese vote traditionally has been polarized.
11:46We'll see whether or not those patterns continue or change. And I'm also looking at the, the challenge
11:52of having a campaign around the chief minister, because this also has dynamics within UMNO, and also
11:59it makes the campaign all about him. And that has, that potentially can be a strength, but it also
12:06maybe can evolve into a weakness. Okay. And what about the Pakatan Harapan
12:11chief minister candidate? Well, he said he was a non-candidate.
12:16Not a poster boy. He's not a poster boy. But he has, he had a good record when he was
12:22in office. But I
12:26think Pakatan Harapan is wrestling in very much in defensive mode this campaign. I think his focus
12:31will very much be on trying to retain his seat. Okay. Wonderful. Bridget, thank you so much for
12:36sharing your insights with us. Good luck with you working in Melaka. That was Dr. Bridget Welsh
12:40from Nottingham Malaysia, University of Nottingham Malaysia's Asia Research Institute. Wrapping up this
12:45episode of Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris signing off every evening. Thank you so much for watching and good night.
12:51I'm Melissa Idris signing off every evening.
