00:10Hi, welcome back to Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris. Let's continue our discussion about the
00:15recent developments in Malaysia's political landscape as questions mount over what GE16
00:20could look like. Joining me now is Dr. Tricia Yeo, who's an Associate Professor of Practice at
00:25the School of Politics, International Relations and Economics at University of Nottingham,
00:30Malaysia, where she's also the Director of its Asian Institute for Policy and Engagement.
00:36Tricia, good to have you back on the show. So let's start with Rafizi Ramli and Nick Nazmi
00:42and their departure from PKR. Both of them are not fringe figures in politics. So what does their
00:49departure from the party say about the internal state, the internal dynamics of PKR?
00:56All right, thank you so much, Melissa, and thanks for having me back on Consider This.
01:00So we do know Rafizi and Nick Nazmi obviously have had stellar political careers thus far,
01:07really household names by now. They were transformative in the whole reformacy movement
01:13all the way from the late 90s, 2000s, and of course played a major role in, especially, I think,
01:19importantly, the 2018 election, right? Where at the end of the day, Barista National, then their
01:27rival parties were felt famously. So what does this departure say about the internal state of PKR today?
01:35It obviously indicates that there is a state of turmoil and turbulence taking place within the party
01:42itself. But we also have to remember that it's not the first time that PKR has experienced a major
01:48split. Anwar Ibrahim himself, as a political leader, has experienced many, many personal splits from people
01:58who were, you know, utmost loyalists to him, people who stood by his side. And there are numerous individuals
02:07that we can count, right, on actually two hands. But in terms of the last PKR major split that we
02:13recall,
02:14the last of which was when Dr. Sri Azmin Ali left, bringing with him a horde of PKR members and
02:21leaders
02:22to party Bersatu. So that is, in a sense, this is not the first time the party has been thrown
02:29into crisis. And also, I mean, some are, I suppose, questioning as to whether PKR itself as a party can
02:37continue to survive. On the PKR side, they might argue that they have survived after multiple crises.
02:45So the question is, you know, how much of a leadership figure Rafizi was at this point
02:51to actually cause that much internal hemorrhage and disruption to the party? And I also just want
02:59to recall a little bit of history or contemporary history that this current party split started back
03:08when the PKR election took place in May last year. So this is around exactly a year ago when the
03:15rift
03:15between Anwar Ibrahim and Rafizi Ramli widened more significantly. There was always
03:22disagreement between Anwar and Rafizi in terms of the leadership style, perhaps the vision that they had
03:28for the party. But it's been a year in the making. And at this point in time, I believe that
03:36the party
03:36itself is suffering. We have seen news of many of its leaders resigning, members resigning and moving
03:44to Bersama. But I think it's still early to say what the implications of all that will be at least
03:51in the immediate term.
03:52Okay, so Parti Bersama Malaysia, what do you think Rafizi is trying to build with this party?
03:58Who is he trying to attract in your assessment? I mean, I wonder whether there is space in Malaysian
04:06politics for a party like Parti Bersama. So yes, in history, many of the political parties that were
04:17splinter parties from the main parties never really did electorally well. So one could remember, recall
04:25parties like Semangat 46 that split away from UMNO. But I think that narrative is a little bit of an
04:31old and tired
04:33one as well. Because if you were to look at the party of PKR itself, it's a splinter of UMNO.
04:40I mean,
04:40in fact, all the Malay parties of today are splinters of UMNO. You know, all roads actually lead from UMNO
04:48as
04:48the Granol party itself. So I think the argument that they're not going to come to any success, I think
04:55is a little bit too naive at this moment. Because especially since the fragmentation of politics since 2018,
05:022018 and then more decisively from 2020 onwards, the cards are really in the air as to what actually
05:11happens. So who is Bersama targeting? Bersama obviously is targeting at this moment disillusioned
05:19pakatan voters who believed very much in the story and the narrative of reform. So that's the exact group of
05:26people that they're trying to target. You recall as well that Rafizi Ramli himself during the campaign for
05:36the party elections last year had already started indicating that the new group of members who joined
05:43PKR after PKR ascended into federal government are not the kinds of members who remember the old days of
05:51of fighting on the streets, for believing, people who believe in the cause, people who believe in true
05:57reform. So the party itself has transformed and I think in a way he's trying to restore that faith,
06:03right, that faith in governance and that public narrative that PKR used to have.
06:08As to whether they'll be successful in the future, I mean, we don't know but we know that they received
06:148,000 memberships within the first 24 hours which is indicative of some potential success. I mean,
06:20if that is, of course, to be believed. And we know that, you know, Rafizi himself has always been very
06:25successful in garnering public attention for his campaigns, raising funds. If you recall the Invoke
06:32campaign, the data and funds that he organized very, very strategically, arguably even more successful
06:39than his party or any of his coalition were able to do. And of course, they also famously utilized
06:45these tactics from President Obama's campaign, right, to refine the voter databases. And in that campaign
06:52itself, he raised more than 10 million ringgit in public contributions. So I think this is no secret,
06:58it's going to happen again. And I think more importantly, it will split the vote. So it will split the
07:04vote of
07:05those who were, let's say, the original PH voters, those who believe in reform, who believe in an
07:10inclusive narrative. And this is likely the outcome. And who benefits from this would be actually the
07:19Conservative parties, right? So when you split the moderate vote, what happens is that the Conservatives
07:24collectively are already planning to vote the Perikata National way. Of course, we know that
07:31Perikata National is also having its own internal tussles. But
07:35I do see that at the end of this fragmentation, at least this round of fragmentation pass will be
07:41the beneficiary. Right. And speaking of the internal fragmentation of within Pakatan Harapan,
07:49but also within the coalition government, I'm quite curious. So the Prime Minister has
07:53floated the possibility of snap elections. Let's think through some of the considerations that could be at
07:59play. We are in the middle of a global economic supply crisis and domestic politics at play. How do you
08:07see the
08:07current situation, Trisha? What are the considerations that might tip the snap elections one way or the other?
08:15Yeah, it's a great question. I think that's on everyone's minds really at the end of the day.
08:20Well, I think thinking about elections in the year 2026 was already going to happen anyway,
08:27because, you know, once Sabah state election started, it started the ball rolling for all of the other state
08:36elections to take place. So you are kind of already entering an election season, so to speak.
08:42Let's also remember that state elections are due in the states of Johor and Malacca by the end of this
08:47year.
08:48And given the combination of that with the political uncertainty in the state of Negeri Sembilan,
08:54right? So we know that there is also a crisis brewing there. It's only a matter of time before
08:59things will need to stabilize. And in Negeri Sembilan, the DAP has already said through its Secretary General
09:07Anthony Logue that if Johor and Malacca dissolve, they would want to have Negeri Sembilan dissolve as
09:13well. So with these state elections taking place, I mean, you could still split the state elections and
09:19then let those three states go first, two or three states, and then do a general election later. But it
09:25could make some economic sense to do it together. And depending on, you know, whether it is UMNO or DAP
09:31or PKR's will that prevails, of course, UMNO would like to have the state elections first to gain some
09:38momentum. And they will perform pretty well in both the states of Johor and Malacca. Now, coming to the
09:44other issue that you mentioned, the supply chain crisis and oil prices and prices of goods. Now, that has
09:50not yet escalated, or rather, the impact of that has not yet been fully felt. So in the next six
09:57months,
09:57I think that will be a crucial time. If that escalates in the coming months to a year and
10:02there will be uncertainty and economic woes that spill over into 2027, that could be one strategic
10:11logic perhaps to call for an early election before those impacts are truly, truly felt. The other strategic
10:20logic that could be being weighed upon now is that they might want to jump the gun before PN itself
10:29can consolidate itself. So we know that they are doing the work as well, right? With Dr. Sam having
10:35just been appointed as the leader of the opposition on the 16th of May. Hamza Zainuddin's reset movement is
10:41also gaining momentum. They're starting to talk about, you know, what kind of inclusive Malay politics looks like.
10:47So to do all that, or rather to dissolve and to run a general election before PN can gain the
10:56upper
10:56hand could be the other strategy that's weighing on their minds right now. But again, there are other
11:02things to think about. I would also mention that I do think that there's some distractions going on
11:10where the Madani government was supposed to announce its national oil consolidation plan, I believe in
11:17the middle of May and the middle of May has passed. So politics is running ahead of the economic course
11:25and we actually don't know what the internal political discussions are like, but I do think
11:31that cabinet itself would be very distracted at the moment.
11:35So Trisha, what are you watching closely in terms of how parties position themselves ahead of GE16 then?
11:41Yeah, so there are multiple parties now. So you're looking at like six parties that are targeting the
11:47Malay voter alone. That's UMNO, Bersatu and then Hamza's reset campaign, whether or not that becomes a party.
11:53PKR, Bersama and then PAS. And then the Chinese, of course, you still get to vote between MCA and DAP.
12:00But I think what we need to look out for is what all these parties approaches are towards the three
12:06big things affecting Malaysia today. Number one, the economy. Number two, race and religious relations.
12:11And number three, corruption and governance issues. So let's take, you know, let's wait and see.
12:15Well, lots to consider when the time comes. That was Dr. Trisha Yeo from University of
12:21Nottingham, Malaysia, wrapping up this episode of Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris, signing off for the evening.
12:26Thank you so much for watching and good night.
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