00:00Chance to make the CFP. Here we go. We've got Ohio State at the top, 76%. I mean, that's three
00:05-fourths, man.
00:06That's pretty darn good. Notre Dame, right, a couple points behind them. Texas at 70. Oregon at 65. Georgia at
00:1364.
00:14What's interesting is Indiana's all the way down there at 8 at 57%, but their odds have them at 6.
00:21And so that might be the difference between computers and public markets of how they look at it.
00:25But Miami and Texas Tech, 6 and 7. Bama, 9. LSU, 10. No one missing there, not until the back
00:33end.
00:34When you see this deal, kind of what teams stick out, what teams jump out, and maybe the percentage that
00:39they have of actually getting in the CFP?
00:42Texas Tech immediately stood out to me. I figured their numbers would dwindle a little bit with everything going on,
00:48but I guess there's still obviously some confidence over there in Lubbock, Texas.
00:52Miami, a team that no one's really talked about, I feel like, even after the Darian Mensa pick up whenever
00:59they got them from the transfer portal.
01:00I thought there was going to be a little more talk behind them, so I'm glad that they have such
01:04strong odds
01:04because I think they do have a lot of talent coming back, and then they've got their transfer quarterback who's
01:09going to be great.
01:10Oh, gosh. Georgia, they're always at the top.
01:12They're just not sexy like these other guys.
01:14They've just played, like, hard-nosed football, just they know how to win games.
01:19Oklahoma and Ole Miss, those are kind of my two underdogs, I feel like, in the SEC.
01:24I'm surprised they don't have kind of better odds, but I guess the math, you just can't have everyone in
01:2950% odds to get into the playoffs.
01:31So I would say those four or five teams are really the ones that stand out in me.
01:36What was the last one you said?
01:38I said Oklahoma and Ole Miss.
01:41I feel like they kind of should have higher odds there.
01:44Oklahoma, I think, for sure.
01:45Or not Oklahoma, Ole Miss, I think, for sure.
01:47I really like Trinidad Chambliss.
01:49It's going to be interesting to see how they end up working the offense with Lane Kiffin gone
01:55and a lot of that offensive staff.
01:57The fact that Clemson's on there still – do you know what Clemson's over-under win total is, I believe,
02:03on FanDuel?
02:05I'll go with 8.5.
02:08I think it's 7 or 7.5.
02:11I've seen it move a little bit.
02:13But, yeah, the fact that they say they're 17th best odds to make it, but a lot of people have
02:19their win totals.
02:20I've checked some other books as well.
02:21I mean, that thing's sitting around 7, 7.5.
02:23I have not even seen it to 8.
02:25So that is amazing to me that they have them sitting there in 17.
02:29I would probably say that's just a Dabo effect, which I don't really know if he has that effect anymore.
02:33He doesn't have the same pull that he did back in the late 2010.
02:36So, yeah, that's very interesting now, especially that the ACC, they're starting to have a couple teams, I guess, take
02:43the reins a little bit.
02:44You've got Miami.
02:45SMU's been doing pretty good.
02:47Pitt does pretty good.
02:48So I am surprised that they still have those odds whenever they've got more teams coming out of the ACC
02:52that are doing better than them.
02:54So a couple other things on this list.
02:57Number 10, LSU.
03:01Number 15, Michigan.
03:0316, Ole Miss.
03:0417, Clemson.
03:0518, Penn State.
03:06Do you know what those five teams have in common?
03:10New coaches.
03:12Bingo, man.
03:12You're a sharp guy.
03:13Oh, yeah.
03:14You can see that, that all five of those schools have new coaches.
03:18Now, we'll flip to the next sheet here and look at their chances to have a first-round buy.
03:24And so you're going to probably look at these things and think that they're in the same order.
03:28This is where it gets a little interesting is Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Notre Dame still at the top.
03:34But Notre Dame has slid down significantly.
03:37Texas Tech has disappeared from the top 10.
03:42And who else?
03:43Was it Texas?
03:44No, Texas is number two.
03:46Who else slid off there?
03:48That may have been it.
03:50Yeah, that was it.
03:52But A&M slides in at number 10.
03:55And you have Texas Tech sitting back there now at 11.
03:59And so it's interesting, like, because it's a fine line of, like, how good they think you are, how good
04:05they think your schedule is, and how much weight that's ultimately going to carry.
04:09Yeah, and the team I noticed was Notre Dame.
04:12I feel like that's because they don't have a conference.
04:14So even though they might go 11-1, 12-0, they won't have a conference championship to hang over their
04:20heads and show the world.
04:22So that's the reason why they might not get a first-round buy.
04:25But, yeah, for the most part, I feel like there's not really too much change.
04:29Yeah, you said the Texas Tech, they slid.
04:31That's if they win the Big 12, that's not as much weight as – actually, no.
04:36If they win the Big 12, they do get a buy.
04:38So I think this is pretty accurate for the most part.
04:40I don't really see any changes I would make.
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