00:00It has been a tough year for severe weather in the Midwest and in Illinois, Indiana, nearby
00:06parts of Missouri, we have yet another significant risk of severe weather on Wednesday.
00:12We want to take a look at this here and before we get into the future in our forecast, let's
00:16take a look at the average number of tornadoes, at least tornado reports.
00:20Now tornado reports versus a surveyed storm track from a confirmed tornado, slightly apples
00:28to oranges, but overall, this is the big picture.
00:31You can see Texas, partly because of its large scale size, averages more tornadoes than any
00:37other state, Iowa, Kansas, see quite a few in Oklahoma and Mississippi, and then you get
00:44down to Alabama and behind that, at least a 25 year average there, Illinois would be next
00:52on the list.
00:52Now this year, take a look at this, through June 14th, we have seen a tremendous number
00:59of tornado reports in Illinois.
01:02Illinois has been the hotspot and unfortunately, it's not just been all of Illinois, it's been
01:08kind of an area north of interstates, if I highlight I-70 here.
01:12Most of it's been the northern half of the state, so it's a deeply concentrated clustering
01:17of tornado reports this year, and unfortunately, here we are on Wednesday, coming into Wednesday,
01:23and yet again, it's the area of Illinois near and north of Interstate 70, where we have
01:30the greater risk of severe weather, and we expect to see tornadoes there as well.
01:34Now, again, these are political boundaries and other highways and so forth that are kind
01:39of framing up part of the conversation.
01:40Now the severe risk is going to go beyond any of those specific lines, but the message
01:45here is that the area that has seen the worst of the severe weather in 2026 is in the worst
01:51spot again on Wednesday.
01:54Let's take a look at the modeling.
01:55What can we expect?
01:56What's driving this?
01:57Well, we have some severe storms in progress, even this Tuesday evening in parts of the Midwest,
02:03parts of Michigan, have seen some severe storms, severe thunderstorm.
02:06Watch in effect for some.
02:07That's tied to this disturbance, this dip in the jet stream here that has been motoring east,
02:12areas east of the heart of that dip in the jet stream, face the greater severe weather
02:17risk.
02:17That lifts away, but look at what happens on its heels.
02:21A new vorticity maximum.
02:24This new trough sets in, and it's a pretty potent one with strong winds aloft.
02:30We're looking right now at about 20,000 feet up into the atmosphere, about four or five miles
02:34up there, looking at the overall wind flow aloft.
02:37And also the bright colors are showing us where we're seeing vorticity, that's a measure
02:41of spin in the atmosphere.
02:42And if you're east of one of those bright color zones, you are in a posture of significant
02:47rising motion here in the atmosphere.
02:50This is the way it may look around 8 p.m.
02:52So what are the ingredients that we're concerned about?
02:55Well, one is high dew point air.
02:58This product here from AccuWeather Professional, it highlights that sea green color here.
03:03It really jumps out at you, jumps out at me at least.
03:06That is when you have a dew point of 70 degrees Fahrenheit or greater.
03:09That's like air you can wear, very humid air.
03:12And look at this, up into northern parts of Missouri.
03:15Here's the, this is the NAM.
03:17This even spikes around what, 75 to 77 degrees Celsius, or degree Fahrenheit, not Celsius
03:23thankfully, degree Fahrenheit dew point air.
03:25That's really, really humid air.
03:27And that kind of spiral that is funneled north, you'll notice there is a boundary.
03:33It will be a warm front that is draped with a pretty significant contrast in the dew point
03:40here, probably just south of Chicago.
03:43I don't think Chicago breaks fully into the fully, fully, fully juicy air, but areas just
03:48the south will.
03:49Another thing we want to look at, CAPE.
03:51This is convective available potential energy.
03:53This is the fuel to get air moving upward in the atmosphere.
03:57This is the rising motion driver, the high octane fuel.
04:00And you can see initially there's some very high CAPE values here into areas around Kansas
04:05City and points east.
04:06This is early Wednesday afternoon, then it carries east.
04:09That's the GFS.
04:10Here's the NAM.
04:11The NAM, again, has a way to parameterize things and maybe focus a little bit more specifically
04:15on a smaller grid.
04:17It also hints at some, you get into the reds, the oranges, you're at 3,000 to 4,000 plus
04:22joules per kilogram.
04:23That's high octane fuel.
04:25And that'll expand northward into central Illinois.
04:28Here's another product.
04:29This is the significant tornado parameter.
04:32Now, this is a more elaborate equation in the atmosphere that is looking at a number
04:38of different, it's very intentional, pretty wisely produced statistic that looks at about
04:45five or six different severe weather indices.
04:49Some of them on their own characterize what's going on based on a number of other different
04:54factors here.
04:55So it's a pretty, I guess, you know, the math nerds would say an elegant way to look at things
05:01here.
05:01It's a pretty well-developed statistic here or parameter.
05:06So it's the significant tornado parameter.
05:07It's generally looking at the likelihood and risk level for EF2s, 3s, 4s, and 5s.
05:13And what you may notice is we have some pretty bold signals.
05:17It also, through the way that it is produced, I'm getting rid of that last product, it filters
05:23out to almost nothing areas where the risk is very, very, very low.
05:26So it highlights the conversation into Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, mainly south of Chicago,
05:32south of Chicago.
05:33But we're very concerned about that area from around Effingham, again, southward, down to
05:38near Carbondale, Illinois.
05:40And then finally, here's just the straightforward forecast of precipitation.
05:44Even up in Chicago, drenching, gusty thunderstorms will be rolling through, but the tornado threat
05:49may be a little greater farther south.
05:51Here's the NAM, and then into the European through Wednesday evening.
05:57By the way, this does move into the northeast.
05:58Storms Thursday in the northeast could be severe.
06:00They're going to be scattered, though.
06:02It will be similar to recent events where there are winners and losers in terms of those
06:07who see the rain, if you're looking for rain or not.
06:09All right.
06:10So that kind of does it for the models.
06:13I want to take us back to the graphics just to kind of hammer home the main storyline.
06:16Again, a high risk for severe weather for many areas near and north of I-70.
06:21But even if you don't just draw your eye to the high risk, that's three out of four.
06:24Even the moderate risk is a significant storyline.
06:27That's a big concern for a huge chunk of real estate.
06:29Now, specifically, the tornado threat, it is greatest on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
06:34south of Chicago, near and north of Interstate 70.
06:37And we're very concerned about some of these areas.
06:40So we'll close with a look at this particular graphic here.
06:42Terre Haute, Champaign, Peoria, Quincy.
06:44Stay weather aware.
06:45Even larger areas.
06:47A big zone in the Midwest with severe weather Wednesday.
06:49Stay weather, stay weather, stay weather, stay weather, stay weather, stay weather, stay weather, stay weather, stay weather, stay weather,
06:50stay weather, stay weather, stay weather, stay weather, stay weather, stay weather.
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