00:00The NFL's Coach of the Year market is very interesting to me
00:05because new coaches are always where people look.
00:11We understand the idea, you know, beat expectations.
00:15You have in two of the first three choices,
00:21Josh Allen's team and Lamar Jackson's team.
00:26And if you look, it is not far-fetched.
00:30In fact, the odds would suggest either Jesse Minter or Joe Brady will win 13 games.
00:39One of them will win 13 games this season.
00:44As a new head coach, neither one of these guys won their division last year, Tom.
00:49I'm like, I know, like, it's so early to slice it down to two guys,
00:56but I'm at least going to start the conversation with Minter and Brady here.
01:03It's a good place to start.
01:04The expectations for not them, their teams, their respective quarterbacks are extremely high.
01:11We know that, and we've known this for a number of years.
01:13I find this market always very difficult to look into because you are trying to find different things.
01:21I know last year you were, if I remember correctly, you were high on Sean Payton
01:24at least being in the conversation just based on what the Broncos were doing.
01:28Yeah, once we got, you know, to the end of it, like, okay, the Broncos are amazing.
01:32They're going to have home field events, first seed, et cetera.
01:34And he wasn't really in conversation.
01:35And we were just looking at Mike Vrabel, you know, all these wins for the Pats.
01:39So really, what is the criteria season to season?
01:42Is it a new head coach that simply makes the playoffs for a team that didn't make the playoffs previously?
01:47Is it a new coach that's just exceeding expectations?
01:49Are they going over their win total, whatever it might be?
01:52You know, it is tough to break down.
01:55The fact that Sean McVay is so, so far down the list,
01:59and there's so, such high expectations for the Rams is interesting to me.
02:04If the Rams, to your point, as we say, could win 14 games,
02:08Sean McVay is going to be in the conversation.
02:10Whether or not he wins it, he will be in the conversation for coach of the year.
02:13And that's just how I feel right now.
02:16So the thing with McVay, right, is trying to find the most, probably really not even the most profitable,
02:28just the best odds to back the high end of the Rams, right?
02:35Like, what's really interesting to me is I'm seeing on one book,
02:43will any team go 17-0, 13-1, which feels shorter than I would have thought.
02:51I would have thought that would be much bigger.
02:56But it's not.
02:58And if someone is going to go undefeated,
03:04at least the odds would tell us it's the Rams.
03:07So I'm, like, I don't know what the Rams to go unbeaten price is.
03:12I don't know if it's out there yet.
03:14But let's just say, Tom, it was, or it is 25-1.
03:21Would you then argue McVay at 33-1 is a better bet because if they go unbeaten,
03:26he's definitely winning coach of the year?
03:28Or do you think the credit could still get divvied up and he may not win it?
03:32I think if a team goes undefeated, we could shoo in Stafford for MVP.
03:37We could shoo in McVay for coach of the year just because we don't see this ever, right?
03:44And, you know, there would be an alternate way.
03:46So instead of betting on one of those, you would say you would take the longer than them.
03:50So instead of betting on Stafford to win MVP, you would bet on the team to go 17-0
03:54because if they're winning that, Stafford's likely going to be winning MVP, etc., etc.
03:57With McVay as head coach of the year, you would take that number instead of them to go 17-0
04:01instead of that hypothetically 25-1.
04:03The 16-0 New England Patriots did see Bill Belichick win coach of the year
04:16off of a prior season 12-4 division-winning finish losing in the conference championship game.
04:27So, you know, history says, albeit incredibly small history,
04:32if the Rams went unbeaten, McVay is going to win coach of the year.
04:37Now, I know that that sounds like we're talking about some lofty, outrageous things,
04:44but I'm always at least interested in getting the same bet at better value, right?
04:51Like, you know, I know there are people who took Kevin Cash to an AL manager of the year
04:57as opposed to a raise make the playoff bet because they felt if he makes the playoffs,
05:04he's winning manager of the year, right?
05:06Probably more risky than what we're talking about, but, you know,
05:10the different ways to skin a cat here, Tom.
05:12Like, but I'll be honest with you.
05:15At 15-2, I don't think McVay has any chance to win coach of the year.
05:2016-1, maybe 17.
05:22I do not know.
05:23I just, I think, because like you said about Stafford,
05:27like, don't you think the credit in Los Angeles,
05:32forget him competing with Stafford for credit.
05:35What the defensive love for this team projects to be.
05:39Like, I don't know, like a Ram sweep of the awards is at 15-2
05:44just doesn't feel like how this is going to go.
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