- 17 hours ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. A vast area of heat will develop across much of Europe during the next few days. The UK will also be on the periphery but to what extent might the heat move north and affect parts of Britain? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
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– 10 Day trend forecast https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZDSHKqsgszMnk9d5IEF5UH
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NewsTranscript
00:00A European heat wave is on the way. 40 degrees likely across some parts of
00:05Spain, France and Italy. Well above average for the middle of June. But to
00:11what extent will it affect the UK? Welcome to the Met Office Deep Dive. Thank
00:15you for joining me. My name is Aidan McGiven. I'm a meteorologist and weather
00:18presenter here at the Met Office. If you're not familiar with our deep dives
00:22we do these every Tuesday. They go on our YouTube channel and a bunch of other
00:26places. So if you like these in-depth discussions of the UK's weather and
00:30sometimes global weather then please do hit a like, send us a comment, send us a
00:35question and tell your friends and family. Of course also please do subscribe so you
00:41never miss one of these in the future. Now before I talk about the impending heat
00:47for Europe and for some parts of the UK I want to talk about the rain because it's
00:54not going to be hot and sunny everywhere. There will be plenty of rain to talk
00:59about over the next few days. In fact a fair amount of rain for northern parts of
01:04the UK in particular and it's kind of related to the impending heat wave across
01:10parts of Europe. It's all tied in with the same system because the UK is
01:15essentially sitting on the boundary of that heat and that's why there are some
01:20uncertainties increasingly so through the weekend and into next week in terms of
01:24highest temperatures for the UK and to what extent the heat across Europe will
01:30spread north across the country and where exactly will rain. We're always going to
01:36be sitting on this boundary between a large ridge of high pressure which is
01:41emerging across the European continent, cooler air and low pressure towards the
01:45north and weather fronts, rain bearing fronts that will sit in between those
01:52two air masses. Now first half of June of course has been very different. We've had
01:58below average temperatures, we've had quite a lot of rain in many places, long
02:03spells of rain, showers and so on. Much needed rain of course for many and that's
02:08because we've had this relatively flat pattern across the North Atlantic. The jet stream
02:13lying in a fairly horizontal shape has been sending us low pressure after low
02:19pressure from the west and to some extent that's going to continue in the next few
02:24days. But one important difference is starting to emerge with the jet stream. You
02:30can see it there coming out of North America this north extension of the jet
02:36stream it's becoming more amplified out in the Atlantic and this ridge up
02:41towards Greenland will force a trough, a southward dip in the jet stream during
02:48Wednesday into Thursday out to the west of the UK in the mid-Atlantic and as that
02:55jet stream trough emerges what we're going to see is a very strong ridge develop
03:02over Europe, a very strong area of high pressure and over the next few days that's
03:07going to lead to a lot of sinking air across Europe under that strong area of
03:13high pressure and as I've mentioned in the deep dive before sinking air not only
03:19does it disperse the clouds and allow for strong sunshine but it also heats up the
03:24air as that air compresses just like when we pump up the tires on our bikes the air
03:31heats up because it's being compressed. So that compressional heating is going to take
03:35place over the next few days across Europe, it's going to turn hotter and hotter during
03:39the rest of the week under a strong area of high pressure but we've also got this
03:45trough in the jet stream in the mid-Atlantic which will keep sending areas of low
03:51pressure towards the northwest of the UK and in between that heat over Europe and
03:57the cooler air to the northwest of the UK we've got what we call a baroclinic zone,
04:02that's basically a gradient in temperature from hot here to cool here and it's along
04:09that boundary where we see weather fronts and those weather fronts will be aligned a
04:16lot of the time with the wind so they'll just be persisting in the same sorts of
04:21places the north and the west of the UK ebbing and flowing over the next few days
04:25it's what we call a waving weather front you can see that a cold front here and then a warm
04:30front as it pulses north and then another cold front and we're going to see these
04:34fronts affect the north and northwest of the UK over the next few days bringing
04:40bouts of rain so it's all tied in with this bigger picture high pressure and
04:45heat developing over the continent and low pressure to the northwest of the UK in
04:50between these wriggling weather fronts bringing outbreaks of rain to the north and
04:55northwest of the UK and you can see how much rain is going to occur by these maps
05:01here and those areas are affected so essentially anything in blue is 0.1 to 50
05:10millimeters of rain for each 24-hour period Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
05:14we're seeing outbreaks of rain at the moment especially across parts of Wales
05:18and Western England during the rest of Tuesday into Wednesday further spells of
05:22rain for many parts of the UK dry for the far southeast and east of England but
05:28that north west southeast difference really gets more exaggerated through
05:36Thursday and Friday you can see how it turns wetter across North Wales northern
05:41England southern Scotland the darker blues here and a few spots of yellow
05:45indicating something around 50 millimeters in a 24-hour period it's
05:51northwestern hills that will get the most rain during the next few days
05:54northwest England southwest Scotland and then on Friday west northwest Scotland
06:00parts of Northern Ireland wetter again but increasingly it's dry across the
06:06Midlands the east and southeast of England and increasingly hot as well as
06:12that expanding area of heat over the continent starts to affect the south and
06:19southeast of England eastern parts of England later this weekend into the
06:23weekend primed for some relatively high temperatures for June let's look at the
06:29day-to-day detail quickly before we focus on temperatures here's Tuesday and a lot of
06:34cloud across the UK with outbreaks of rain for many western and northern parts of the UK
06:39patchy rain on and off but heaviest most persistent across Wales the jet stream
06:44sending weather fronts in by Wednesday those same weather fronts still lingering
06:49across central parts it's a muggy night tonight and then a warm but rather grey and
06:55misty start for many of us on Wednesday outbreaks of rain first thing turning more
07:00showery into the afternoon some breaks in the clouds some sunny spells emerging
07:04temperatures responding well low to mid 20s as that happens but no heat wave yet
07:09into Thursday and you can see it turns wetter in the northwest here's the rain
07:15across North Wales northern England southern Scotland for example some heavy
07:19and persistent rain and as I just mentioned 50 millimeters or so in places
07:24jet stream sending an area of low pressure to the northwest of the UK and a
07:29brisk breeze as well but that breeze is coming from the southwest so it's a
07:32relatively warm day once again Thursday we're talking about 25 to 28 Celsius in the
07:38southeast where there'll be some reasonable spells of sunshine by the
07:41afternoon into Friday and it's the same northwest southeast gradient across the
07:48country Scotland parts of Northern Ireland the northwest of England West Wales
07:52still seeing further wet weather at times caught on the boundary between the
07:57emerging hot weather that we've got towards the southeast and the much cooler
08:01weather towards the northwest you can see that temperature contrast and in fact this
08:05map here is underdoing the temperature contrast 13 Celsius it says there for
08:09stormway but actually we're likely to see 32 Celsius in a few spots across East
08:14Anglia and the southeast this isn't quite capturing the peak temperatures in the
08:18peak hot spots so a really significant temperature contrast northwest to southeast
08:24across the UK as we end the working week we can call it hot and sunny in the
08:29southeast it's going to be gray and damp in the northwest now if you're in the
08:35north and northwest and thinking well I'd quite like some summer like weather why
08:41does the southeast get it all the time actually there is going to be some drier
08:47weather heading your way for the weekend because by that stage the high
08:51pressure over the continent and that bubble of heat that is expanding all the
08:57while that's going to spread further north through Saturday one caveat though a cold
09:03front will just work its way southeastward so temperatures will be a little lower
09:08where it's hottest in the southeast on Friday temperatures will drop away a
09:12little most likely temperatures 28 Celsius but mostly sunny as you can see so
09:17still feeling pretty hot out there in the strong sunshine which of course peaks this
09:22weekend because of the June solstice so yeah very high UV levels most likely and you can
09:28see across Scotland Northern Ireland a bit of cloud one or two showers but much drier
09:32compared with that Friday and Thursday lighter winds as well Sunday well that's when we're
09:39going to see again high pressure dominating the weather across much of the UK warm or very
09:46warm for many places increasingly hot for the south and southeast up to 32 Celsius once again in the south
09:55and southeast but a bit warmer further north as well with plenty of sunshine at least at first for
10:01Scotland and northern England nowhere near as hot as it's going to be across the continent however and
10:09there's a lot more confidence about how much the temperatures will rise over the next few days
10:14across the continent because it's more straightforward we're not talking about a boundary between hot air
10:20and cool air and a wriggling weather front it's quite straightforward if you're in France and Spain
10:25and Italy between now and Monday it's simply temperatures rising each day under that intense
10:31area of high pressure let's take a look a few graphs showing that temperature rise because
10:36really is quite significant worth remembering as well this is June we're talking about it's not the
10:44the hottest summer month in Europe July and August we see the peak of the heat so yeah these are
10:53these are unusually high temperatures we're talking widely across Spain and into France I'm going to put on
10:59all the locations here that we've got temperatures for we're talking wide across Spain's France across
11:05central Europe 10 degrees above average and let's put on a few places let's take a look at Madrid for
11:12example you can see that
11:13temperature rise over the next few days Madrid typically around 30 31 celsius in June that's the average temperature
11:20so we're at that at the start of the forecast and then it's rising up to the mid 30s Friday
11:25Saturday 38
11:26it's saying there for Sunday Monday wouldn't be surprised if it's a little bit higher I think this here is
11:31Zaragoza
11:31there we go Zaragoza now their average temperature 33 celsius for this time of year
11:38we're starting at 35 37 all the way up to 41 celsius by Sunday and Monday Madrid by the way
11:47is a bit higher
11:49than other locations across Spain so it doesn't typically get quite as high as for example elsewhere
11:55where we've got lower elevations get another example there 40 celsius let's move further north
12:02where actually as you go into France into the Alps into parts of central Europe temperatures are more
12:10extreme compared with climatology so 35 there let's see Saint Etienne 38 by the weekend Lyon 38 and further north
12:25into parts of central France we've got some 40s coming up for the weekend and again worthy of emphasis
12:32this is probably underdoing it by a couple of degrees given the resolution of the model underneath
12:39but it's still high 30s Paris high 30s it's saying but I suspect it will be a little bit higher
12:46so it's a consistent temperature rise through the next few days and I mentioned that
12:51it's actually more unusual for these parts of Europe for the time of year and this is
12:59illustrated nicely I've shown these uh extreme forecast graphics in the past and basically
13:06just to make sure you get your positioning here there's the UK there's Ireland there's Norway Sweden
13:12the rest of Europe is covered by red because it's so extreme and it's
13:17encapsulated by this black line and the darker reds these are areas where basically the colors and
13:24the lines mean that the predicted temperatures for Saturday Sunday and Monday in this large part
13:34of central and northwestern Europe are fairly extreme compared with model climatology the European model so
13:43when the European model looks back at 50 years of re-analysis 50 years of data and this comes out
13:51as well above what we usually see at this time of year in these locations so this huge area across
13:58central
13:59and northwest Europe not including Scotland not including northern England or Ireland that's where it's going to be most
14:07extreme coastal areas of course no people who are holiday in say Malaga or Barcelona coastal areas will be
14:14moderated significantly by the sea temperatures but inland that's where high 30s 40 41 celsius expected
14:23and another one way of showing how extreme it is are these meteograms this is Geneva and we're often
14:33showing these but just in case you haven't seen it before this is the temperature trend over the next
14:38two weeks so it starts off Tuesday the 16th of June goes out to Tuesday the 30th of June
14:45each box and whiskers shows the predicted maximum temperatures for each day that's the red and the
14:53blue boxes are the minimum temperatures by night and then the lines essentially the thick red line here is
15:00the average for the time of year and then the thinner red line is the extreme in the model climate
15:07so
15:07what we've got here for Geneva is that these boxes are going up to the extreme already on Tuesday
15:12and then going several degrees above the extreme for all the way to Monday Tuesday as well perhaps
15:21Wednesday and those boxes remain small every day up until Monday which indicates there's not much spread
15:29in the models or not much uncertainty in the models until Tuesday and then there's a greater range of
15:37likely maximum temperatures the minimum temperatures go up to the average daytime temperature line as you
15:43can see so really quite uncomfortable nights as well talking about low to mid 20s for the overnight
15:49temperatures in Geneva and for the daytime temperatures low to mid 30s well above what we'd normally see for the
15:58time of year 10 degrees or more above average not just Geneva but this is Paris as well this rapid
16:04rise
16:04over the next few days and then peaking through the weekend or perhaps even Monday there's a bit more
16:10uncertainty the boxes are a little bit bigger by the time you get to Saturday Sunday Monday and that just
16:16indicates that the further you go north the closer you are to that boundary between the hot air of Europe
16:25and the cooler
16:26air further north closer to the UK and so the uncertainty increases through the weekend and i'll have more on
16:32that
16:32in just a moment one final graphic to show the extraordinary heat over Europe and this shows the probability
16:42probability of 35 celsius or higher let's skip ahead to Monday a little bit further
16:53and there we go 2pm Monday so you can see the extent of yellowy colors which indicates there is a
17:02chance
17:02that temperatures will exceed 35 celsius and again it's a low resolution model it's possibly underdoing it a bit
17:09there's even a hint there in London and the southeast so this is Monday afternoon 22nd of June the probability
17:16temperatures will get greater than 35 celsius Monday possibly the peak of the heat but a lot of uncertainty
17:25from Monday onwards due to the positioning of various lows and highs that i'll go on to in just a
17:32moment
17:32now i mentioned the temperatures for the UK 28 degrees the likely high in the southeast
17:38on Thursday 32 on Friday Saturday 28 again because of a cold front that brings something a little fresher
17:47from the from the northwest but still plenty of sunshine and then on Sunday 32 celsius once again
17:56But with that rise in temperatures comes the increased risk of some thunderstorms and just to show you the
18:06likely locations for those thunderstorms
18:08This is a similar graphic to the extreme forecast index graphic that show for the temperatures, but this is
18:15for thunderstorms and it essentially shows how extreme the potential
18:20energy in the atmosphere is so the energy available for convection or the energy available to spark
18:28thunderstorms
18:29That can be caused by a couple of things it can be caused by low pressure way up in the
18:33atmosphere that forces the air to rise because
18:37the low pressure at the top of the atmosphere causes a vacuum so the air is sucked up
18:41So that can be one cause of convectively available potential energy or CAPE that's what we call it
18:48Another cause of high CAPE high energy is the high temperatures at the surface causing the air to rise
18:57and that's the more likely cause of
19:01this
19:02So this graphic essentially shows that across parts of eastern England and this is Friday by the way
19:08Eastern England up into parts of the North Sea northern France to the low countries
19:13That's the area where there is the most available energy to spark
19:19very very significant thunderstorms and we're talking about large hail
19:23gusty winds torrential rain
19:27Frequent lightning
19:28It's in this area where that's the greatest risk doesn't mean they're guaranteed
19:32because we haven't quite got the
19:35upper low that you might need to
19:38more effectively cause these thunderstorms but there's a lot of energy at the surface because of the heat
19:43and humidity at the surface that
19:46is
19:47wanting to to rise up and develop these big thunderstorms so
19:52that's just to
19:55Flag
19:56later Friday and also similar thing on Saturday and into Sunday
20:01the risk of these really quite lively thunderstorms developing
20:05I haven't got the graphic but one difference with Saturday and Sunday compared with this one is that the Saturday
20:10and Sunday
20:11graphics don't quite cover the east of England but they still cover
20:15parts of France and the low countries so still the chance that these
20:18lively thunderstorms will develop over the channel and and drift towards the far south east of the UK
20:24Of course, we'll keep our eye on that and keep you updated over the next few days
20:28far too early to give specifics but just to flag that potential
20:34into next week
20:36as I mentioned it it may well be that the heat peaks on Monday for the UK
20:42it becomes increasingly uncertain on Monday itself because
20:48what we've got on Sunday
20:51as you can see is a more and more complex situation developing
20:54low pressure
20:56heading south with this trough in the jet stream another branch of the jet stream splitting and going north
21:02And then the computer modeling somewhat diverges from early next week
21:08depending on what happens to this low
21:11One scenario is that it drifts a little bit further south and the whole jet stream amplifies further
21:17and you get more heat developing more widely across the UK
21:21and it's an even hotter day compared with Sunday
21:24Another scenario is that that low ends up drifting
21:29north eastwards across the UK and eventually allows something a little fresher in from the north west not just for
21:35the UK
21:35but for parts of northern Europe and you saw the uncertainty there for
21:40Paris from Monday as well the big spread on its meteogram so
21:45So there are some various scenarios to consider for next week
21:51and just to illustrate them
21:55First of all
21:57actually
21:58this graphic that I've shown before
22:01Oh there it is
22:03This shows
22:05The temperature trend from not just one
22:09but 51 computer model runs from the European model
22:12So
22:13there are lots of lines on this graphic and at first they're all
22:18pretty much the same
22:19That's why the color is quite a nice bold yellow red color
22:23And you can see that
22:25Daytime and nighttime temperatures
22:28are increasing
22:29This is for London increasing and then going up well above average for Friday
22:33dipping a little bit on Saturday and then increasing again on Sunday
22:38But Monday
22:40Here we go, look at that
22:42A lot of the lines take it to similar values as Sunday
22:46Some of the lines, only a few, take it well above
22:50So really into quite extreme temperatures, but only a small number of lines
22:55Remember this is
22:5651 computer model runs
22:58So we're talking about two or three taking it up well above
23:02at 30 degrees there
23:04And then that uncertainty continues into next week
23:08There are more lines
23:10that remain above average but not as extreme
23:13and dipping a little bit
23:16Tuesday onwards so you can see this
23:19general
23:21clearer outline here through Tuesday where it's not quite as high
23:25into Wednesday and so on
23:27But still there are some extremes that take the temperatures well above
23:32the most likely values for early next week
23:37So there's a most likely scenario for next week and then there's a
23:41much less likely but more extreme scenario as far as the temperature
23:46temperatures are concerned
23:47It's not just London
23:48Here we go, we can move it around the country
23:51Here we are in the Midlands
23:53And you can see temperatures peaking into Sunday
23:58and then somewhat lowering through next week
24:01except for a small handful of computer model runs that
24:05continuously increase the temperature
24:08Moving it further north
24:09The temperatures as a whole get lower
24:13But the uncertainty for the same period remains
24:17So this is for Glasgow
24:20You can see we're not really seeing the kind of
24:23high temperatures that we're seeing further south
24:25But we're still seeing the same kind of uncertainty through next week in terms of
24:31whether it's going to get hot in Glasgow
24:36relatively small likelihood of that
24:38or more likely stay about the same as the weekend
24:42And then we take it further north again
24:43And actually it becomes a bit more
24:46confident when you get to northern Scotland
24:48that temperatures will dip through next week and
24:51remain around the mid to high teens
24:54Let's take a look finally at some of the scenarios
24:59that are leading to that wild temperature variation from Monday
25:04because I think this is quite interesting to show as well
25:07I'm going to show the most extreme hot scenario
25:12and just bear in mind when you see this
25:13it's a relatively small likelihood that this will actually happen
25:16because it's not that supported by most of the computer models
25:20but we've got member 31 here
25:23and if I zoom out
25:26we get a European view which is quite interesting
25:29now this is shown Tuesday
25:31time recording 2pm
25:32but if I fast forward to
25:35next Tuesday a week's time
25:37you can see some really quite high values
25:40still across France 39 there for Paris
25:43it's got 36 for London which would be
25:48pretty close to the June record
25:50if that happened
25:52but just emphasise this is picking the most extreme
25:56scenario from the computer modelling
25:57this is the hottest one I found
25:59because it helps to illustrate
26:02how it got this hot
26:04and what we've got here is low pressure staying to the south of Greenland
26:08high pressure close to the Azores
26:11and the jet stream
26:12if you imagine it's coming around here
26:15and then going well to the north of the UK
26:18and this plume over Europe extending north
26:23so it's high pressure
26:26ridge of high pressure over Europe
26:28just extends its influence across the whole of the UK
26:31you can see how that evolves
26:34from Sunday we've got low pressure over the Azores
26:38and that low pressure
26:41gets close to the UK
26:44and forces this ridge of high pressure to come in from the east essentially
26:50meanwhile so that's next Tuesday
26:54and
26:56same time
26:57same areas
26:58is we've got member two
27:01or was it member one
27:03either way
27:05much lower temperatures
27:06so 26 degrees there for
27:08for London
27:09mid to high teens for northern parts of the UK
27:1225 for France
27:15and in this scenario
27:17if I rewind a little bit
27:19we've got the same low out to the south west
27:21but that then crosses the UK
27:24and eventually
27:27you get a cooler air flow coming in across the north west of the UK
27:32what is more likely
27:34I suspect
27:35is a middle ground
27:39solution like
27:41member zero
27:42that's the operational model run
27:45and that's got low pressure to the north west of the UK by Tuesday
27:49high pressure to the south west
27:51yet a cooler air flow
27:53compared with Monday and Sunday for many parts of the UK
27:56so temperatures down a bit
27:58but with that high pressure coming up from the south west
28:01actually still plenty of fine weather from Tuesday onwards
28:04we've still got high pressure close to the UK
28:06in fact I can play this forward
28:08you see
28:09low pressure is always up towards Iceland
28:11high pressure
28:12always close to the UK
28:14still well above average temperatures for the UK
28:16but we've lost those extremes
28:18those mid to high 30s across the northwest of Europe
28:23and it will still feel hot
28:25we've still got strong sunshine
28:26we've still got
28:28in the south at least
28:29a dominant high pressure throughout next week
28:32but we've lost those extremes
28:34temperatures most likely peaking Sunday or Monday
28:38meanwhile the northwest of the UK
28:40most likely experiencing more changeable weather
28:43with low pressure
28:44and you can see how temperatures are
28:45more like the mid to high teens or low 20s
28:49so that's most likely
28:53because it's most similar to a lot of the other computer model runs
28:58and not similar to the extreme version that I showed
29:03however you can never discount the extremes
29:05you know it's like rolling a dice
29:07you can't discount the fact that you're going to roll a one
29:10but you'd say it's more likely you're going to roll another number
29:13so that's what probabilistic weather forecasting is all about
29:16we run the computer model lots and lots of times
29:20see what comes out
29:21at the moment
29:23mostly for next week
29:25we've got high pressure
29:26we've got a lot of fine weather to come
29:28a lot of
29:29summer sunshine
29:30for the south in particular
29:32but more changeable weather towards the north
29:35meanwhile there are some
29:38minority but some
29:40more extreme computer model runs that we need to keep an eye on
29:43and
29:44yeah I guess hope for the sake of the populations of
29:48northwest Europe where we're not used to those kinds of extremes
29:52hope that they remain in the minority
29:55and eventually instead we get something a little closer to average
29:58we can all enjoy some summer sunshine rather than something truly extreme
30:03but here at the Met Office we'll keep you updated on the
30:07well comings and goings of all the computer models and other stuff
30:10and you can follow all our updates on our YouTube channel
30:14we'll have the 10 day trend tomorrow of course
30:16so look out for that
30:18but for now that's all from me bye bye
30:21now
30:21you
30:21You
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