- 16 hours ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. It’s a good week to get out and do some cloud spotting but you’ll need a few layers on… but next week it may warm up a touch. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
You may also enjoy:
– 10 Day trend forecast https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZDSHKqsgszMnk9d5IEF5UH
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– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
You may also enjoy:
– 10 Day trend forecast https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZDSHKqsgszMnk9d5IEF5UH
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00More cold showers to come for all of us through the rest of this week.
00:04But are there signs of something a little warmer as we go into next week?
00:10Plenty of heavy showers around as well over the next few days.
00:13Some thunderstorms, some hail possible.
00:15And we're looking at some large hail, possibly across parts of Central Europe in this week's Met Office Deep Dive.
00:22We'll also be looking at the clouds, some beautiful cloudscapes on offer through the course of this week.
00:28So plenty to stay tuned for.
00:31This is the Met Office Deep Dive.
00:32Welcome along.
00:33My name is Alex Deakin.
00:34I'm a meteorologist and presenter here at the Met Office.
00:37We do the Deep Dive every Tuesday.
00:39You will know all about it if you subscribe to our YouTube channel.
00:43So please do that if you haven't done already.
00:45And if you like what you see, then let us know in the comments.
00:48Also, if you've got any questions about anything to do with weather or climate, pop them in the comments as
00:54well.
00:54And please, if you could do as one thing today, we hit that like button.
00:58And it helps to spread the love, widen the horizon of all the Met heads in the UK and beyond.
01:06So, yes, hit that like button as well as subscribing.
01:09And that will be fantastic.
01:10So, yes, welcome along to this week's Met Office Deep Dive.
01:14Lots to get through.
01:15As I said, it's a cool and showery feel to the weather this week.
01:19But there will be plenty to see out of your window.
01:22We're looking at some fantastic cloudscapes.
01:25And that's good for the mind.
01:27And it is Mental Health Awareness Week.
01:30That's where we're starting this week.
01:32It is Mental Health Awareness Week, as I said.
01:34And we're partnering up with Mind.
01:36Because as we get into the summer months, we're encouraging people to get outside more.
01:41Because connecting with nature is really good for your mental health.
01:46There's lots of ways to do that.
01:47But one example would be just growing, picking food, bringing plants indoors, taking notice of nature.
01:57That's what I like.
01:58And, yeah, that's what we're going to be talking about a little bit more in a minute.
02:02Taking notice, particularly of the skies.
02:04Looking up for certain types of cloud.
02:07But there's lots of different ways that you can connect with nature.
02:10And lots of different ways that the weather can be good for your mental health.
02:13So there's lots of really good advice about preparing for the summer on the Met Office website.
02:18Just search for Weather Ready.
02:20And there's lots of really good advice as we go through the rest of Mental Health Awareness Week on the
02:25Mind website.
02:27Mind of the Mental Health Awareness Charity.
02:29And as they say there, there's no right or wrong way to connect with nature.
02:34Do what feels good for you.
02:37So I want to talk today a little bit about what feels good for me.
02:40What I do to kind of try and relax and calm my brain down.
02:46And that is just to look at clouds.
02:48Because they're fantastic.
02:49They're fascinating.
02:50There's always something going on.
02:52And this week in particular, I suspect there will be some cracking cloudscapes out there.
02:58Literally and metaphorically.
03:00Because there could well be some thunderstorms as well.
03:02Just a cautionary note.
03:03If you do hear a rumble of thunder, you don't want to be outside at that point.
03:06That is the time to retreat indoors and look at the clouds safely through the window.
03:11But there will be, as I say, some fantastic cloudscapes around over the coming days.
03:17And so I want to talk about how we classify clouds.
03:21And what we're looking at when we're looking at the sky.
03:24And that might help you identify the clouds that you're looking at.
03:28So let's pay homage to this chap.
03:31Who is he?
03:33Do you know?
03:35Answers in the comments.
03:36I'll give you five seconds.
03:38This chap, in the early 1800s, was the first really to classify clouds.
03:44I think he was on a train one day.
03:45He started sketching them.
03:46Came up with a few ideas about how to classify clouds.
03:50This is Luke Howard, the cloud godfather.
03:54And he came up with this classification by sketching and drawing clouds.
03:59And he was a clever clog.
04:01So he used the Latin phrases like cirrus, which means wispy or hair-like.
04:07Cumulus, which means heaped.
04:09Or stratus, which means kind of in a layer.
04:12And we still use those terms today.
04:15And we combine them to form the basic forms of cloud.
04:20And there are, nowadays, we classify them in ten basic forms of cloud.
04:25And in three different layers through the atmosphere.
04:29So, starting at the bottom, we have stratus.
04:34That's the lowest form of cloud.
04:35It's what produces drizzle, the one closest to the ground.
04:38And it's, as you say, a thick, thickish layer.
04:41It can be quite thin, actually.
04:42But it's a layer, and it's in strata form.
04:45So it's not that lumpy.
04:47That's your cumulus.
04:48When it gets lumpy, we're going to get heaped.
04:50Cumulus meaning heaped.
04:51And it's starting, so you can actually see the air rising up through the cloud.
04:55Then you've got a cumulus cloud.
04:57That's your classic kind of cotton ball cloud that we all draw when we're four years old or 52.
05:03And then if you combine those two, cumulus and strata, so you get a kind of layer, but it's got
05:08a bit of a lumpiness to it on the top.
05:09Probably the most common type of cloud around the world is a strato cumulus.
05:14Then you've got cumulonimbus, which is classed as a low-level cloud.
05:19But for a proper cumulonimbus, you've got to start at the bottom and go all the way up to the
05:23top of the troposphere.
05:24So that is a cloud which goes up through the layers, as we will see.
05:30A cumulonimbus, a thunderstorm cloud.
05:32Now on this image, you'll see we've got nimbostratus here as well.
05:36And nimbostratus is a bit of a strange one because it actually is generally down towards the surface, but it's
05:42classed as a medium-level cloud.
05:44And nimbostratus, nimbo, means rain.
05:46So it's rain-bearing, very thick when the cloud goes, when the sky goes very dark, gray, or even black.
05:53Usually we've got a weather front approaching.
05:55That's when you've got nimbostratus.
05:56It's producing rain.
05:57If you're under that, you are getting wet.
05:59But that is technically classed as a medium-level cloud, along with altostratus and altocumulus.
06:09Again, variations on the other ones.
06:11Stratus meaning that layer.
06:13Alto now meaning higher.
06:14So it's higher than the lower-level ones.
06:17So these mid-level ones are called altocumulus, altostratus, and nimbostratus.
06:21Altocumulus meaning the lumpy ones that are a little bit higher up, between 2,000 and 6,000 meters,
06:26or about 7,000 and 18,000 feet, if you prefer it in that kind of nomenclature.
06:32Is that the right term?
06:33Probably not.
06:35Altocumulus, altocumulus, nimbostratus.
06:38They're the medium-level ones.
06:39And then higher up at the top of the troposphere, anything above 20,000 feet or above 6,000 meters,
06:47you've got your cirrus, your classic wispy cirrus.
06:50Lots of different types of cirrus, as we will see.
06:52But if it's that high up, but it's kind of lumpy, then it's cirrocumulus.
06:55Cirrocumulus, quite rare to see much cirrocumulus.
06:58And cirrostratus when it's in more of a layer coming in at that high level.
07:03And you can see there, there's the top of the cumulonimbus.
07:06So the cumulonimbus going all the way up through the atmosphere.
07:09So they're your 10 basic types, or genera, as they're known.
07:15And I'm going to point you now to the absolute oracle of all things to do with the cloud from
07:21the WMO, the World Meteorological Organization, a few years ago, developed the International Cloud Atlas.
07:28Search for it online and you can spend hours looking up all kinds of different types of clouds.
07:34So in here, you will find the basic table where we have the genera, those 10 different basic types.
07:43But within each different type, cirrus, cirrocumulus, cirrostratus, there are different species of that particular type of cirrus.
07:50Your fibratus, your uncinus, your spisatus, your castellanus, your flocus.
07:56And then within that, you get different variations.
07:59So there are hundreds of different types of cloud.
08:03And then you get your speciality ones down this end as well.
08:06So if we just zoom in a little bit on that, I can see there are, say, five different types
08:11of cirrus.
08:12There's four different varieties.
08:14Not every different type, not every different species has a different variety, if you see what I mean.
08:20And there you go.
08:21You've got four different types of cirrocumulus and going all the way down to cumulus and stratus at the bottom.
08:27So, as I say, really, that's the place to go, really, to identify clouds.
08:33The WMO Cloud Atlas.
08:35All kinds of information on there.
08:37You can see all kinds of images as well.
08:40Another really good place to go is the Royal Met Soc.
08:43They've got lots of information on different types of cloud or the Cloud Appreciation Society as well.
08:49Really good place to go and be part of the cloud spotting community on there.
08:53But that's, yeah, just some interesting sources of information to go to.
08:57Just going to highlight a few clouds that we may well see this week.
09:01Because the weather's really kind of conducive to convection, we are likely to see quite a bit of cumulus initially
09:09in the mornings and then turning into cumulonimbus clouds.
09:12So, I'm going to break it down.
09:14These are the four species of cumulus that we see.
09:18Cumulus humulus, which are wider than they are tall.
09:23You could argue the Simpsons cloud.
09:25Those clouds at the start of the Simpsons are cumulus humulus.
09:28And they're your kind of standard fluffy white clouds.
09:32Your cumulus mediocris, which are then getting a little bit taller.
09:36So, when they become as tall as they are wide, they then become cumulus mediocris.
09:41And cu-con, as it's known for short, cumulus congestus, they're the tall ones.
09:48And that's signs of things are getting pretty lively.
09:50The atmosphere is getting deep, or the clouds are getting deep enough to maybe start producing some outbreaks of rain
09:57just the stage before they become cumulonimbus clouds.
10:02So, let's take a look at a few examples of those.
10:04There's your cumulus humulus, wider than it is tall.
10:07And you've got a humulus.
10:08If it's as wide as it is tall, then that's pretty much a cumulus mediocris.
10:13And then you've got that towering cumulus there.
10:16You can see it in the distance.
10:17Still all lumpy and bumpy at the top.
10:20But it's a cumulus congestus just before it gets probably to the top of the troposphere.
10:26And it has to stop going up.
10:28And it starts to get really cold at the top.
10:30It starts turning into ice.
10:31And then that's when you've got a cumulonimbus.
10:35So, let's take a look at some examples of cumulonimbus.
10:38Again, the three main different species of cumulonimbus, cumulonimbus calvus is when it's reached the top of the, pretty much
10:46at the top of the troposphere, but it's still lumpy and bumpy at the top.
10:49These are your classic cauliflower shapes.
10:52There'll be plenty of those as we go through the next few days.
10:55Your cumulonimbus capillatus, where it's starting to get a little fibrous at the top.
11:01And I'll show you an example of that.
11:04So, that's your cumulonimbus calvus.
11:06That's your classic cauliflower-type cloud.
11:09So, it's bigger.
11:10It's fatter.
11:11It's fattening up at the top.
11:12It's getting very cold up there.
11:14It's starting to rain.
11:15You can get rain from those kind of clouds.
11:17That's your cumulonimbus capillatus, where it's not lumpy anymore at the top.
11:21It's started to turn fibrous.
11:23And that's because right at the top here, we're starting to form ice crystals.
11:26It's cold enough at the top.
11:27We're starting to form ice crystals.
11:29And then it is going to be raining when we've got ice crystals at the top.
11:33And here, you've got your cumulonimbus incus, your classic.
11:35As it develops further, it's reached the top of the troposphere.
11:39And it starts to spread out.
11:41And it's reached that anvil stage.
11:43When you see those anvils, you've got a cumulonimbus incus.
11:47Wanted to show you this video of that development of the clouds as we go through the different
11:53stages of cumulus.
11:54We start off with cumulus mediocris.
11:57And now it becomes a towering cumulus there.
11:59You can see it shooting up.
12:00Now it's taller than it is wide.
12:02And then it reaches the top of the troposphere.
12:04It starts to go fibrous all of a sudden.
12:07So now we're into a cumulonimbus stage.
12:09I want to point out these things shooting out over the top of it, overshooting cumulonimbus.
12:15That's where it's going as you're going up through the top of the troposphere into the
12:18stratosphere.
12:19The clouds reach the top of the troposphere.
12:21And then you get a temperature inversion.
12:23That's why they don't keep going on forever.
12:24And then you're into the stratosphere.
12:26So they tend to stop at the stratosphere.
12:27But if you've got strong enough updraft, they can break through the top and head into
12:32the stratosphere.
12:33And then you've got this classic anvil shape as it's all spreading out.
12:38It's much more fibrous at the top.
12:39You've still got the lumpiness here.
12:40You've got the fibrousness there.
12:42And then it leaves behind a kind of a layer of cirrus up there as it all kind of drifts
12:47away.
12:48You've still got that high-level cloud up there.
12:50So the development there of cumulus into a cumulonimbus cloud.
12:56I mean, we could just watch that all day, couldn't we?
12:59But you may well see things like this developing outside of your house.
13:03Perhaps not on this scale.
13:04I think this is in Colorado somewhere.
13:06So perhaps not on this scale.
13:07You might not have quite that kind of wide scape of a view.
13:11But there's every chance that you will see these cumulonimbus developing over the course
13:17of the next 24 hours, particularly so on Wednesday and on Thursday, because we are looking at some
13:22pretty heavy showers for the UK.
13:25Let's take a look at the weather then, shall we?
13:27And what's going on across the weather and why we're likely to see those showers over the
13:34next few days?
13:34Here's the big picture.
13:36We've got low pressure to the north of the UK, high pressure sitting out in the Atlantic.
13:40And we've got this developing jet.
13:43Well, the jet's been in this funny position where it's kind of been north-south orientated
13:47across close to the UK, swirling down and breaking off quite an active jet down across
13:54Siberia at the moment.
13:56And that's been in place for a while.
13:58It's been bringing showery rain across southern parts of Spain and Portugal in particular.
14:03And what's happening here, you've actually got two elements of the jet coming together
14:08here, notice, across northern parts of Italy.
14:11Just one weaker branch extending down here.
14:14This one's been in place for a while.
14:15And that has allowed warmer air to waft up.
14:19So we're on the warm side of the jet, hot air across Africa.
14:21Because of this kind of southwesterly flow, we've seen warmer air drifting in into Italy.
14:27So the air's pretty warm here at the moment.
14:30But because of that arm of the jet coming down here now, and it's got a bit of a kink
14:34in
14:34it, notice that that little trough in it there, that is going to be a breeding ground for heavy
14:40showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon.
14:43That's the setup as I record this through early afternoon on Tuesday.
14:47That little kink in, that little weakness of the jet stream, bringing down cooler air
14:51at higher levels.
14:52So you've got warm air underneath, cooler air coming in over the top, and that means
14:56the air is unstable.
14:57So it's going to rise.
14:59That air that we've just seen from the cumulus clouds bubbling up, it's going to be easy for
15:04that to go because the air above is colder.
15:06So it's just going to rise.
15:07That warm air wants to rise.
15:09It'll rise.
15:09It'll cool.
15:10It'll condense.
15:11It'll form clouds.
15:12It'll eventually form rain.
15:13And potentially some big thunderstorms in this part of the world.
15:17If we just put the rainfall on, you can see that pocket of rain in there forming across
15:22southern parts of Austria, through Slovenia, down into Croatia, and through the rest of
15:28the afternoon, that little pocket of heavy downpours just drifting south as everything
15:33comes together and pushes its way down towards Bulgaria and Hungary over the course of this
15:41afternoon and into this evening.
15:42So we are looking at this afternoon, potentially some very heavy downpours developing.
15:46How much rain could we see?
15:48Well, let's zoom in on that and take a look at the rainfall accumulations that we're expecting
15:52in this part of the world.
15:54There's brighter colors there, really heavy rain.
15:58Let's put it on the three-hour accumulations, tilt the map a little bit, zoom in a little bit
16:05here.
16:05So we're south of Vienna.
16:07And if we go through the afternoon, these are the three-hour rainfall accumulations.
16:11Look at those blocks building in that part of the world.
16:15So those red cubes are anything between 25 and 50 millimeters.
16:19And that's in three hours.
16:20So some places could easily be seeing 50 to maybe 100 millimeters of rain as those pockets
16:26of thunderstorms move their way across this part of the world through Croatia, as I said,
16:33through Slovenia and down towards Hungary and Bulgaria.
16:37Romania, sorry, Romania, we could see some pretty heavy downpours in that part of the world.
16:42We could easily see 50 to 100 millimeters of rain in the next 12 hours or so.
16:47And we could be seeing 25 to 50 millimeters of rain and we could be seeing in three hours
16:51and we could be seeing some large hailstones as is shown by this really cool map.
16:58It's been brought to my attention today by our deputy chief, Nick Silkstone.
17:02And thank you for pointing this, these charts out to me, Nick, crediting Matthias Zaczarek.
17:11Apologies, Matthias, Matthias for my pronunciation of your Polish name.
17:16He is a Polish researcher at a university in Poznan.
17:20He uses the GFS model, the American model, to come up with these convection charts across Europe.
17:27And if we just zoom in a little bit, I really want to highlight the chances of seeing large hail
17:31in this part of the world.
17:32Just about make out Italy there.
17:34Only a five to two percent chance, but that's quite high because the classing hail here is two centimeter hail.
17:40So that's that's pretty big hail.
17:42So if you do see it in this part of the world, likely to be quite damaging.
17:45So quite a strong signal here that we could easily see some damaging hailstones over the next 24 hours on
17:53that chart online.
17:54We'll put the link in the chat if you want to take a look at this really cool website.
17:59It's really useful, I suspect, over the course of the summer months as we see more heat building and more
18:04of those cumulonimbus clouds coming in.
18:06But quite a high chance of some damaging hail across parts of central and southeast Europe over the next 24
18:11hours to 48 hours.
18:14Right. What about the UK?
18:16Well, I've talked about showers.
18:17That's basically it for the next couple of days.
18:20Here's the setup at the moment.
18:21We've got that arm of the jets diving down to the west of the UK, moving across, not really interacting
18:28with this low pressure too much.
18:30But what we are going to see is more showers.
18:32So this weather front that's kind of draped across the country at the moment, pretty feeble, not generating much rain
18:38because there's not a lot forcing, not a lot going on.
18:40So that weather front's kind of fizzling out.
18:42But it is another cold front, so it's introducing cooler air.
18:45So it's not very warm out there.
18:46Ahead of that weather front in the south, 15, 16 degrees in the sunny spell.
18:50It's actually quite a nice day here in Devon at the moment.
18:53Elsewhere, we have seen quite a few showers.
18:55And tomorrow, everywhere, we are likely to see the showers.
18:58As we see, as we can run through the night, what we're going to see is that weather front clearing
19:04away.
19:05The jet stream drifts its way further south.
19:07But notice this little feature in here, a little weather front.
19:11It's a trough, really.
19:12And that is going to intensify the showers.
19:13Looking here, coming in quite widely across western parts, sinking south through England and Wales.
19:19And if we just pause it there, first thing tomorrow morning, showers just covering the UK.
19:25There'll be bands of them moving through.
19:27And they will be moving through because the winds are quite brisk coming down from the north.
19:31So bringing a chill.
19:32But it won't be as cold as last night because there's more cloud around, because there's more breeze.
19:38It's been quite chilly this evening in the south ahead of the showers.
19:40But it won't be as cold as last night where we had clear skies and generally light winds because the
19:44winds mix the air up.
19:46And, of course, the cloud stops things radiating a bit.
19:48So it won't be as cold, even though the air is still pretty cold, if anything, a little bit colder
19:53coming down from the north.
19:54And tomorrow is a day of showers, basically.
19:57We are going to just see showers in pretty much all parts of the UK as we go through the
20:02day.
20:03We'll see them initially created by that little trough as it goes through.
20:07And then what we'll see as we go through the day is a couple of things are going to happen.
20:11The sun has got a bit of power at this time of year.
20:13So although it's quite cold, the air, it will still warm things up and it'll warm the land up faster
20:18than the sea.
20:18So by the time we get into the afternoon, you can see a lot of the showers developing over the
20:22land.
20:22They are going to be created by just the power of the sun.
20:27So that's the convection getting going.
20:29We'll see those clouds bubbling up.
20:31But as we go later into the day, what we're quite likely to see, if I just pause it there,
20:36notice this line of showers.
20:38That's a focus for them coming in from southern Scotland down across northern England towards the southeast.
20:42There's a distinct line of them here, almost like another line of them in here as well, coming in from
20:48the peninsula across from Anglesey down to the from the northwest down to the southeast of Wales.
20:55So a couple of focuses, foci of the showers coming in here.
20:59And this one in particular, you can see where that's coming from because of the wind direction.
21:03We've got low pressure here sitting out in the North Sea and the wind's going around.
21:09You can just about make out the isobars on that.
21:11But look at the way the winds are going.
21:13If I take the isobars off, you can see the winds zoom in a little bit.
21:18Just because of the position of the low here, the wind's almost coming straight down into Yorkshire from the north.
21:25But over here, they're coming more in from the northwest.
21:29So they're kind of on a collision course.
21:31And what we are also going to see is the frictional forces coming into play.
21:36So as the winds come over the sea, there's not a lot of friction.
21:40So they tend to follow the isobars or not far off.
21:43As they hit land, what happens is they slow down.
21:46There's more friction over land, so they slow down, which means the Coriolis force takes over and they back a
21:51little bit.
21:51So the winds will come in here and might be able to draw it on, actually.
21:54Let's use the pen.
21:56The winds come in here, they're coming down, and they have a little kink to them.
22:01Because as they come over the land, they will back a little bit.
22:04And the same is going on over here.
22:05So the winds are coming in here, and then they're backing a little bit.
22:08And they're just on a collision course.
22:09So the winds are coming in around that low pressure.
22:13They're on a collision course, and that is a convergence.
22:15So when they come together, this is the surface.
22:18The winds are coming together at the surface.
22:20There's nowhere for them to go except up.
22:22They're being pushed together.
22:23They can't go down, so they're just going to go up.
22:25And that's just going to enhance that uplift and create more showers
22:29and create that line of showers that we can see through the afternoon.
22:33The mountains will help, of course.
22:35You've got the Pennines in here, so that's another bit of forcing that's going to push the air up as
22:38well.
22:39So the combination of those things are going to generate some heavier showers in this zone.
22:43So much so that you might see some places not seeing many showers at all,
22:48particularly close to the coast of northeast England.
22:50There might not be many showers because all the energy, all the forcing is going into this zone,
22:55generating that uplift here.
22:57It's a similar thing going on across North Wales, but not quite the same
23:00because the wind's not really in different directions, not really coming together here.
23:04But again, you do have that frictional force of the land, so it's a little bit more subtle.
23:09But the winds are coming in here from Anglesey down, and then in here they're coming in here,
23:15and then they're hitting this side of Wales, and then they're being forced.
23:18It's a bit more subtle, but you're still getting that convergence, those winds being pushed together.
23:23And it only takes a little bit because, as I say, there's nowhere else for it to go except up.
23:28Those winds have to be forced upwards because they're coming together,
23:30and they can't go down into the earth, obviously.
23:33So that's a couple of things to look out for.
23:35See if you can spot that on the radar tomorrow afternoon as those winds.
23:39And it's another feature of the weather that we'll see more and more as we go through the summer,
23:43particularly when the winds are light and you get convergence from things like sea breeze convergence.
23:47So when the sea breeze comes in, that can trigger convection, the clouds bubbling up,
23:51and that can create just lines of cloud, or it can also create some thunderstorms too.
23:57So one area to look out for tomorrow is that zone of heavier showers coming in across parts of the
24:08north and east of England.
24:11That then kind of moves away.
24:14And the winds, actually, if anything, by Thursday start to back.
24:18So we've actually got more of a northerly wind for Thursday, bringing an even chillier feel, I suspect.
24:26So we are going to see those temperatures struggling a little bit by day and by night.
24:31But still, as we go through Wednesday night and into Thursday, let's just take it back to there.
24:36We go through the night, again, enough of a breeze, enough cloud, enough showers.
24:41We're probably not going to see too much in the way of frost.
24:44If you get some lighter winds with those clearer skies across southern Scotland, northwest England,
24:48there could be some pockets of frost in that zone there.
24:52So still some chilly nights to come and chilly days to come as well.
24:55If we take a look at the temperatures over the next few days, you can see there's no great shakes,
25:00really.
25:01Temperatures generally at or below average with that more northerly wind, if anything, a degree or so lower on Thursday.
25:07And don't forget, that's the actual temperature, that's what the thermometer will say.
25:10We've got to add that wind on as well.
25:12So quite a significant wind chill on Wednesday and Thursday.
25:15And Thursday's temperatures, yeah, two, three, four degrees below the average.
25:19Friday, still pretty chilly, still pretty showery, although the showers do start to edge away.
25:24And still on the chilly side, even into Saturday.
25:27If we take a look at the minimum temperatures and how they could vary over the next few days,
25:35this graph is showing what those temperatures are doing.
25:37You can see that this morning we were pretty close to freezing across parts of the south
25:41because we had that, we had the clearer skies, whereas further north temperature are actually higher to start the day
25:47today.
25:47But here you can see over the next few days, if we just track it around, they aren't really getting
25:53any warmer.
25:53We are staying fairly close to freezing, so gardeners take note, still the potential for some frosts,
25:59particularly as we head towards into the weekend when the winds will start to ease clearer skies.
26:04And even further south, OK, hard to find anywhere that dips below freezing.
26:08But we're not far off and it wouldn't take much in a rural hollow to get a little pocket of
26:14frost.
26:14So it's still too early, I would say, to be putting out any delicate plants.
26:18Still some chilly nights to come over the next, well, the rest of this week, really.
26:24As we head towards the weekend, we may start to see a change, a hint of a change at least,
26:30with the jet starting to shift.
26:32So still in this kind of elongated, messy pattern at the moment.
26:35But as we fast forward to Friday, still got that north-south orientation to the jet,
26:40just to the west of the UK.
26:41Still got low pressure.
26:42But the high pressure is getting a little closer.
26:45This ridge is trying to topple its way in.
26:48So the charts for Friday, yes, we've got quite a few showers on,
26:53but they're more focused across the east.
26:55So closer to the low in here, you've got plenty of showers coming in down the eastern side,
26:58but not as many showers further west.
27:01So a decent chance, southwest Scotland, northern Ireland, Wales, southwest England,
27:06good chance of a dry day on Friday.
27:08It's not going to be warm, but the winds will be lighter,
27:10so it might feel a bit warmer than the other days.
27:13And there should at least be some sunshine,
27:15and that does make a big difference at this time of year.
27:17Further east, we are still looking at some showers coming in on Friday.
27:21Fast forward to Saturday, and by this stage, the low has gone away.
27:25Actually, look at that.
27:26Most places looking like having a dry, bright day on Saturday.
27:30Again, temperatures are going to be probably still a touch below average,
27:34but a bit of sunshine, light winds, put the winds on.
27:37They are still coming in from the north, but they won't be as strong.
27:40I don't think they're the right winds.
27:41Actually, they're not Saturday's winds due to the way that the data works.
27:46I don't think they were Saturday's winds.
27:47So Saturday's winds will be lighter, and actually, with a bit of sunshine,
27:50shouldn't be too bad.
27:51Notice this, though.
27:52That is perhaps signs of a change as we head towards the weekend,
27:57with a weather front trying to push in.
28:00It's a fairly feeble affair coming in, perhaps.
28:04But by the time we get to Sunday,
28:08the Jets are still in kind of that north-south orientation,
28:12but the pressure pattern fairly messy across the UK,
28:16and signs of higher pressure trying to topple in.
28:19So the winds by this stage are going to be coming more in from the west.
28:23So it's still going to be a chilly air sitting over us,
28:26but with the winds coming more in from the west and generally lighter,
28:30temperatures will start to pick up.
28:31It will start to feel at least a little bit warmer.
28:34But certainly the rest of this week on the chilly side.
28:37I said right at the start,
28:40signs that things could be warming up a little bit next week.
28:43So let's try and find that if we can.
28:45Are there any signs that the temperatures are on the rise
28:48as we go through next week?
28:51These are the ensembles from the ECMWF.
28:54The ensembles when you run the model many, many times,
28:57and each of these green lines represents one of those ensemble members,
29:01as they're known.
29:02So there's lots of green lines on here,
29:04all in agreement at the moment here.
29:06These are the temperatures going along the side.
29:08These are the next few days going into next week.
29:11Up and down nature of the temperature,
29:12because it's the daytime, nighttime oscillation.
29:16So daytime, nighttime, daytime, nighttime.
29:17But as I reveal what's going to happen into next week,
29:20it does look as if there's an upward trend,
29:22both by day and by night.
29:24Now notice it gets quite messy towards the top,
29:26quite a bit of,
29:27there's some of the members going higher than others.
29:30You'd expect that,
29:32get more agreement in the shorter term than you do here.
29:35But there's still quite a strong signal there.
29:37There's quite an upward trajectory of something a bit warmer.
29:41Probably only closer to, or a little bit above average,
29:44but we're starting at a baseline that is below average, remember.
29:47Let's just shift this.
29:48And as we head down across into Northern England,
29:51again, you've got that cold theme for the rest of this week,
29:54and even into the weekend.
29:56But into next week,
29:57again, quite a strong signal that it is going to get a little bit warmer,
30:01and further south as well.
30:03Again, a reasonable signal.
30:04And by here, by this stage,
30:06if we get somewhere just to the north of London,
30:09those temperatures potentially are back over 20 degrees.
30:12So, there are signs of things getting a little bit warmer
30:17as we go into next week.
30:19There's more, there's more agreement.
30:21I say they're a bit closer together,
30:23these ensemble tracks across the south,
30:26than they are further north.
30:27Get a bit more messy, the signal here,
30:30because there are signs of weather fronts could be coming in,
30:32and a weather front will maybe bring a bit more in the way of cloud
30:35and rain further north.
30:36So, it's not a case of it's definitely going to be gloriously sunny everywhere,
30:40far from it,
30:41but at least decent signals that it will be warming up
30:44as we go through next week.
30:45One to watch,
30:47and something to watch,
30:49but we'll have more on this,
30:50will be Annie's 10-day trend tomorrow.
30:52So, Annie Shuttleworth will be doing the 10-day trend.
30:54Another reason to hit subscribe,
30:56and then you won't miss that tomorrow,
30:58but she'll have a bit more detail about
31:00where we could be going as we go through next week.
31:03But yeah, definitely chilly this week.
31:05Watch out for those showers.
31:07Could be some heavy ones.
31:08Keep your eyes peeled for some beautiful cloudscapes,
31:10and send them in to us.
31:12If you get any really good pictures,
31:13we do love seeing them.
31:14If you're on our Instagram channel,
31:16and we put regular appeals out on that for pictures,
31:20so if you get any good cloudscapes,
31:21send them to us on our Instagram channel,
31:23and we'll show some of them in our Weather Studio Live on Friday.
31:27I think it's Alex and Aidan on the Weather Studio Live
31:30this Friday at 12.15.
31:32So, again, if you hit subscribe, you won't miss that either.
31:35If you've got any questions, then put those in the chat.
31:38We'll try and answer some of those questions
31:40in the Weather Studio Live.
31:42If you've got other ideas about what you'd like to see
31:43on a deep dive, also put those in the chat as well.
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31:57Thank you very much for watching.
31:58I'll see you again soon.
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