00:00There's a few things you have to believe will go right for the company, priced for perfection in this upside
00:06scenario where Starship is reusable and satellites in space are commercializable, we see a $1.9 trillion valuation, so priced
00:15for perfection it's $154, but that's not the most probable scenario in my view.
00:21We assign it right now a 7% likelihood because both have to go right, and we will know more
00:27about these projects, let's say, in the next two to three years.
00:32But investors in the IPO are being asked to decide next week what they think is going to happen.
00:38And so at the end of the day, by weighting those different probability scenarios, we ended up with the $780
00:44billion, and we think that given everything else that's likely to happen in the next two to three years, that
00:50people will have an opportunity to get a better margin of safety than they're likely to see on the day
00:55of the IPO, or even in the weeks right after.
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