00:00Well, the hurricane season is almost officially here, and we want to take a look at an area
00:05of concern, I guess we'd call it that at this point here, as we may see tropical development
00:11around the time June begins, with the storm system drifting north into the eastern gulf
00:17out of the western Caribbean.
00:19We'll talk a little bit about some of the driving factors here.
00:23But officially June 1st does mark the start of the Atlantic hurricane season.
00:28We've been talking about the fact that in the East Pacific it's officially underway.
00:32No named storms yet.
00:33We're watching a zone of potential trouble out that way as well, far from land.
00:37But again, as we approach June 1st here, we're getting to that time of year where there's
00:40a subtle increase, but certainly the primary timeframe for trouble is from around August
00:4610th through around October 10th here.
00:48And we have a long ways to go before we hit peak season, but the Atlantic hurricane season
00:54is about to step into practice here.
00:58At least step into the early stages of the official hurricane season.
01:02Now when we see early season storms, they typically form within about 1,000 miles of the U.S. East
01:09Coast, often maybe just 600 or 700 miles from the Atlantic coast, whether it be along the Gulf
01:16or into the area off the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina waters.
01:20And we talk about homegrown development.
01:23With homegrown development, we often have a dip of the jet stream.
01:26Sometimes it dips far to the south.
01:29Other times, like in this case, as we turn the page from May to June, we're going to have a
01:33dip
01:33of the jet stream kind of a little more like this that will be moving east.
01:37So it's not quite as amplified as this example, but it will be a dip that will be deep enough
01:43to interact with some of that tropical or subtropical moisture.
01:48If we get a dip in the jet stream to camp out over an area of abundant tropical moisture
01:55for more than 24 or 48 hours, really 48 hours is what we look for,
02:00then we can see a tropical system begin to form.
02:04Now we often deal with a lot of wind shear this time of the year.
02:07There's plenty of wind shear and also dry air over the tropical central Atlantic
02:12over the main development region, about halfway to Africa.
02:15And that's partly why the early season activity is a little more likely to form closer to home.
02:20Ocean temps out there, you can see most of the water at or above 80 degrees here,
02:25generally from the Bahamas south and from an area, at least from Brownsville, Texas,
02:30to New Iberia Parish, Louisiana, and southeast of there.
02:33So we're getting into that time of year where it's warm enough as long as there's no wind shear or
02:39limited wind shear.
02:40Let's look at the models here.
02:41And we're keeping an eye on, again, a dip in the jet stream.
02:45It's going to be a subtle dip in the jet stream.
02:48But what I am noticing here when I look at this, you can see there's going to be a cold
02:53front associated with this storm system off the east coast here this weekend.
02:57And adjacent to that, there is a dip in the jet stream that's not terribly deep,
03:03but there's also a little bit of troughiness here.
03:05A little zone here of some circulation over the Bay of Campeche there in the southern and southwestern part of
03:12the Gulf.
03:12So again, this dip in the jet stream is kind of a low amplitude one,
03:17but there's a reflection of that even down into South Florida with the nature of this trough.
03:24And that will quickly be moving east.
03:26With the European, it's similarly structured.
03:31Details are a little bit different.
03:33But a couple of these features are similar in both the European and the GFS.
03:36Now, the GFS, it favors a slightly eastern solution for this disturbance.
03:42Here we are at a Tuesday, an area of low pressure east of the Yucatan and north of Honduras.
03:49Tuesday, and you can see it's a little bit slow to lift north.
03:54We look at the same time frame in the world of the European model.
03:58It actually centers it a little farther west.
04:01There is a bit of disturbed weather near Belize, but apples to apples.
04:05Here's the GFS Tuesday evening.
04:07Here's the European with, again, kind of a fragmented zone of low pressure,
04:12somewhat over land and generally some troughiness here out over parts of the southern Gulf.
04:19With those players on the field, we also have, again, that trough that will probably miss the connection with that
04:26disturbance
04:26because it's going to be sliding east just swiftly enough off the east coast and pulling through Florida.
04:32Now, with the GFS, that eastern scenario, there may be some interaction with it,
04:38and it may help to draw this system north into Florida.
04:42And you can see the GFS actually spins this up into a tropical system.
04:46Is that likely? It's probably not the most likely scenario.
04:49It's a little more likely to be disorganized.
04:51And you can see in the European, it never spins it up.
04:53And we have an area of low pressure, weak, disorganized low pressure over the western Gulf,
04:59Thursday night to Friday morning, the 6th into the 4th into the 5th of June.
05:03Meanwhile, we have a landfalling system coming into Fort Myers in the world of the GFS.
05:08Again, we wouldn't commit a forecast to the GFS scenario, but this is what it would look like.
05:12Not the most likely scenario, but this would be a big newsworthy event here in South Florida Thursday into Friday.
05:19Again, with the named storm coming up the Florida coast.
05:22Meanwhile, the European, it's showing a just as likely, if not more likely scenario of a disorganized, unnamed system.
05:29That would just be a weak disorganized under low pressure, bringing an increase in rainfall into parts of Louisiana.
05:36So, one thing to keep an eye on will be the disparity between the two.
05:40Here is the abundant moisture, the precipitable water.
05:43If you take all the moisture aloft and rain it down at once, this is what we would see.
05:49And you can see a significant amount of moisture into the Florida Keys, then South Florida with the GFS with
05:54that named storm.
05:55Meanwhile, the European abundant moisture certainly centered farther west, directing a lot of that into Louisiana with still showers and
06:03storms into Florida.
06:04And again, here is the precipitation forecast.
06:08We are more concerned about some more drought relief in parts of the southeast.
06:12This would dump tropical rains into Florida there with, you know, 7 to 10 inches for some.
06:17Meanwhile, the GFS, again, is that solution.
06:20The European centers it farther west, a little more kind of ironed out, not favoring one area nearly as intensely.
06:30But as we take a look at the forecast here from our team at AccuWeather, we are forecasting an increase
06:36in moisture streaming north into parts of Florida.
06:39It's most likely there, perhaps farther west.
06:41And we've got to keep an eye out for this area.
06:43A low risk of tropical development through June 10th and tropical impacts into parts of Florida.
06:48A low risk of medieval region.
06:49Fifa
06:49F
06:49Co
06:49About
Comments