Could a mid-August tropical storm be headed toward the Caribbean?

AccuWeather

Storm systems close to the U.S. that originally prompted tropical concerns are unlikely to develop now, but forecasters are already watching two waves out in the Atlantic.

Transcript

00:00As we take a look into the Atlantic, we do have some noise.

00:03There are four features that we're highlighting,

00:05but just because we're hedging our bets against these two closer to home,

00:09we'll get them out of the way first.

00:11There's a little more interest to the east.

00:13But this disturbance here east of Cape Hatters, it's probably not going to organize.

00:17It's already being scooped up by some mid-level winds and upper-level winds,

00:20and that's going to be carried out to see if it does organize.

00:23It would happen in the next 24 to 36 hours, and we're hedging our bets against that.

00:26There's a big zone of moisture moving into the Gulf, very disorganized.

00:30This is going to be drifting into the Gulf and hanging out there for a few days,

00:33but it looks so disorganized we probably won't see that develop.

00:36It will spend some extra time there bringing some more moisture, though,

00:38into the Florida, Georgia, and southern Alabama area.

00:42This pesky little wave here is going to likely organize,

00:45so will this one moving off the west coast of Africa.

00:48And you'll notice that the first one, farther west,

00:52is going to curve more sharply to the northwest and eventually to the north.

00:56The second one, though, is going to have kind of a different movement here,

00:59a different vector with a little bit less of a sharp curve to the north.

01:02It may be on a northward jog as it gets close to the Leeward Islands.

01:07We need to keep an eye on both of these, though.

01:08And the Bermuda-Azores High is the main driving factor in the steering flow across the Atlantic,

01:14and this is going to be a big concern here.

01:15So initially, the circulation is kind of bottled up closer to the Azores

01:18and less close to Bermuda.

01:20So that will allow the current storm, or at least the first storm to form,

01:25to pull pretty sharply north and probably even stay east of Bermuda.

01:27But as this gets more expansive, gradually over the next week or two,

01:31by the time we hit the middle of the month,

01:33the flow may be more like this farther south, directing things into the Caribbean.

01:38And in the month of August, this is where we often see storms travel.

01:41It is a fairly high-impact risk area here in the Caribbean as we get deeper into August,

01:48one of the three busiest months of the year in the typical hurricane season.

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