00:00We're looking at tropical development potential. It is September 10th, the climatological peak of hurricane season.
00:06We're tracking this front that Anna's been talking about, all the impacts, that tremendous rainfall in parts of Florida.
00:12If we get a system like this to stall long enough over the Atlantic when the water's warm with limited wind shear, we can sometimes see a storm form.
00:20But we don't have any named storms on the map. It is September 10th. This is it.
00:23This is the statistical peak of hurricane season, and the last time we had a September 10th with no named storms anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, from Mexico to Portugal and in between 2016.
00:34Well, we're going to run through the day with another year without a named storm on September 10th, and that's the ninth year since 1950.
00:43So it happens about maybe 12 percent of the time that you don't have a named storm.
00:47So about 88 to 89 percent of the time there is a named storm out there on September 10th, a really, really active time of the year.
00:53This is great. And the amazing thing now is we haven't had one for almost two weeks.
00:57So it's been very quiet. Now, if we look back at where we've been, we've had six named storms.
01:01So the next one to form will be September will be the seventh of the Atlantic hurricane season.
01:06And on average, number seven forms around a week ago.
01:10So we're already a week past, but we're not going to see a storm form today.
01:13So we're probably going to be about a week and a half to two weeks later than your average first date for the seventh named storm.
01:19The second hurricane of the year typically forms around August 26th.
01:23No signs of a hurricane yet. So we're way behind average there.
01:27And the second major hurricane on average forms around the 19th of September.
01:31We'll have to see if we see a cat three over the next nine days. Probably not.
01:34So we're watching a couple of areas for possible development.
01:36The one closer to home, as Anna's been tracking, will be near the Florida coast into Georgia.
01:40Our front is draped out there. I could draw it one more time.
01:43And future radar is going to highlight some showers and storms out there, but probably not enough organization for us to see an actual depression form.
01:50We'll have some heavy rain somewhere near the Bahamas.
01:52To the east, we've got another tropical wave.
01:54This one's a little more robust, but we've got some very dry air in its path.
01:58And then just to the north of that, a very stiff headwind.
02:01So also a lot of wind shear out there. A couple of arguments against any development.
02:04So the water is warm. We'll be looking for the second half of the month.
02:07The open door into the Caribbean will be the southern track.
02:10And that water is very warm. So that's going to be the area of concern for the second half of the month.
Comments