00:00Labor Day weekend is often a very busy time for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.
00:05We're building up to the big crescendo of September 10th, which is the statistical peak of the hurricane season.
00:12And, you know, last year we did not have a named storm anywhere in the Atlantic Basin on Labor Day, which is pretty unusual.
00:18And this year, we're probably not going to have one either.
00:21So we're going to have back-to-back Labor Days, 2024, 2025, without a named storm in the Atlantic Basin for the first time.
00:28We've had back-to-back years without one since 1992 and 1991.
00:34So you've got to go back more than 30 years ago to find the last time we had back-to-back Labor Days without.
00:38And the theme is good. So Labor Day happens to be September 1st.
00:40That's the first day in which we have a small risk of development east of Florida and also west of Africa.
00:47So we're betting against both of these potential storms.
00:50They're probably not going to organize. We have the low risk, but we need to track them nonetheless.
00:54So the homegrown development, if we see any, between next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday,
01:00would be borne out of a front that's draped across the region here.
01:04And you can see a new trough coming in with the current front moving through the Ohio Valley.
01:08So the storm track is diverting a lot of the moisture from the southern plains down to the Gulf Coast.
01:12And we're going to see this trough hang out near Florida over the next several days.
01:17In fact, there's an area of low pressure on Saturday.
01:19It's going to bring localized flash flooding, lots of moisture here by Sunday.
01:22The center of low pressure will move offshore on the Atlantic side.
01:26And if this can take enough time to cross the region, and if it just kind of lingers long enough,
01:31we could conceivably see an area of low pressure become a little bit more organized here.
01:36You can see here's an area of concentrated rain by Sunday.
01:40Most likely, we're probably not going to see this thing organized.
01:43And then that other disturbance here off the west coast of Africa, a series of tropical waves,
01:47currently being gobbled up by a lot of dry air in the short term.
01:52So let's get started.
01:53Just to monday, thank you.
01:54Thank you very much.
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