Could Tropical Storm Sara form this week?

AccuWeather

It's almost mid-November, but forecasters are still expecting another named storm in the Caribbean.

Transcript

00:00So here we have a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms.

00:03Most of the activity right now is in a broad area,

00:06and it's kind of ambiguously circulating, but it's not very focused yet.

00:10Out to the south of the Dominican Republic and south of Haiti,

00:13and there are a couple of spotty thunderstorms over Jamaica, but that's no surprise.

00:17This is just driven by the daytime warming and over the mountains.

00:20Otherwise, small-scale showers elsewhere.

00:22So we'll be watching this disturbance.

00:24We're still a few days from development.

00:26Satellite loop, kind of filling in the gaps beyond the simulated radar.

00:30It was based on satellite as well.

00:32And there is some deeper convection here, mainly south of the Dominican Republic side.

00:36Some activity on the southwest side of Haiti.

00:39And again, the western part of the Caribbean is generally drier,

00:43and also we don't have much of any deep convection into the Gulf itself right now.

00:48So here we have a front that's draped across the region on the north side near Cuba,

00:52the Turks and Caicos, and the tail of this front is nearly stationary.

00:55South of the front here, this time of the year where we're going to likely see development,

01:00showers and thunderstorms into this area of the central and west central Caribbean eventually.

01:05But again, we don't get fronts like this in August or July.

01:08They just don't make it.

01:10They die farther to the north, maybe north of Bermuda and over I-40.

01:15So this is a November-like pattern.

01:17It's kind of the telltale sign of late-season activity here

01:22And we have strong wind shear over the Gulf,

01:24and we can basically close most of the Gulf off here regarding new development.

01:28But there's not much shear this far south, down to the south of Jamaica,

01:32so it's late this week and this weekend where we have a high likelihood.

01:35We bumped up to the red here, high likelihood of development,

01:38mainly west of the current location for the bulk of the moisture.

01:41So it is going to be moving west, and by the 14th to the 18th here,

01:45late this week right through the weekend.

01:47Remember, today Veterans Day is the 11th, 12th, 13th, the 14th.

01:50It takes us to Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, arguably next Monday as well.

01:55Again, we're going to be looking at development.

01:57Now, big picture, where can we give generally the all-clear for tropical threats

02:01for the U.S. coastline between now and, say, Thanksgiving

02:04and most likely even beyond that time for the rest of the season?

02:08We don't think we're going to see anything else north of Cape Hatteras.

02:11We don't think we're going to see anything.

02:13We kind of shut things down over the western Gulf weeks ago.

02:15But the most likely area to be at risk would be generally south Florida and the Florida Keys.

02:20Sometimes we get these storms that kind of round the bend and hook it through that region

02:24on their way back into the Atlantic from the southwest to the northeast.

02:28So that's our main concern.

02:29And if we do see development, which we probably will, Sarah will be the next storm's name.

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