00:00Well, it's been somewhat of an unusual hurricane season in that we have not had a single name
00:08storm or even a tropical depression inside the Caribbean so far to this point. And we still have
00:14about six to seven weeks to go. And we may be seeing our first name storm in the Caribbean
00:20within the next five to seven days. And there's a chance that that could potentially lead to a
00:27landfall in Central America, Mexico, or a small chance it might even impact the U.S. But we have
00:33a lot of roadblocks and hurdles for this system between this current time and the U.S. coast,
00:39thankfully. And we'll look at this in just a moment here. So let's take a look at the big picture here
00:43as we take a look at the satellite loop here. We're tracking two areas of possible development.
00:48The next name storm would be Melissa. We had short-lived Lorenzo in the rearview mirror.
00:52There is a system that could organize into a subtropical system. It has drifted from south
01:00of Nova Scotia. It's kind of out here over the northwestern Atlantic. And it'll be scooped up
01:05and sent out to sea. But that, again, has a limited chance of becoming a subtropical storm.
01:12For the past 20-plus years, subtropical storms have been given names. But in this case, again,
01:17it would be somewhat of a hybrid system. But we're also watching this tropical wave to the south.
01:22This one is near 10 degrees north latitude. So it's pretty far south. And usually you have to be
01:27north of 10 north latitude, usually north of 11 degrees north latitude, to get into a zone here
01:33where there's enough spin in the atmosphere. So something called the Coriolis effect to actually
01:38get storms circulating. And this is going to be pulling north with time. So we're highlighting both
01:42of these features. But our interest is mainly on the wave approaching the subtropics here and moving
01:49into the Caribbean potentially for next week. So there's a medium chance for development there.
01:54Here it is. You can see it's still out there. Very close to 10 degrees north latitude right now.
01:59It's a fairly robust tropical wave. But again, it's going to have to thread the needle. There's a lot
02:03of wind shear to the north. And then a large amount of land interaction to the south, Trinidad and
02:08Tobago and South America would be in its path if it continues directly west. So again, the system
02:14could be threading the needle. You can see that we're dealing with a lot of wind shear to the north
02:18here. That would be prohibitive for this storm. If it wandered far enough north to around 13 degrees
02:24north latitude this weekend, it would probably be sheared apart. And we need to keep an eye on the
02:28westward progression of this storm system, this tropical wave. So here we're tracking the potential
02:34for this to enter the Caribbean. And this weekend, it's going to stay disorganized. There's too much
02:39shear around it. There will be some land interaction perhaps at the end of the weekend and early next
02:43week as it gets closer to Venezuela, especially early in the work week. And it could actually just
02:49be eroded away by this land interaction. But if it stays just far enough north without getting too far
02:55north, it could enter the Caribbean. So you can see this pathway through which it could enter the
03:00Caribbean. Now, some models drifted farther north and then it goes out to sea. You can see there's a
03:05big dip in the jet stream off the east coast of the U.S. And that could be something that would steer
03:09it out to sea. But if the timing worked out, this system could conceivably miss the connection with
03:14that system, with that trough, and actually enter the Caribbean and then move into the Gulf even.
03:20That would become a bigger threat for the U.S. Let's take a look at some models here. And again,
03:23what we're interested in is tracking this tropical wave. There it is. And we're looking at the GFS.
03:29GFS carries it west. Here we go into Monday evening. And at this point, it's still intact,
03:35entering the southeastern Caribbean, very close to the ABC islands, Aruba, Curacao, Bonaire.
03:40And then moving forward, it begins to drift north, slow its westward movement. And this could become
03:47a tropical depression, maybe even a tropical storm. Here you can see into Friday, a week from now,
03:52it would be a tropical storm if the GFS is correct. But you'll notice it gets scooped up about a week
03:58from now. It drifts far enough north that it ultimately gets steered out to sea by this trough.
04:04The trough is deep enough that it would scoop it out to sea. And there it goes, out to sea,
04:09not our issue. Meanwhile, we could take a look at the URP. And this model solution is different.
04:14It's very difficult to track, but it's still there. It's still alive into the early part of the week,
04:19next week, entering the southeastern Caribbean. There's not much to it, but it would be there.
04:23And then as we continue to track it farther west, again, there's not much left to it. And then as
04:27it just sits over the Caribbean long enough, we could see a tropical depression form out of this
04:32one. And it would become a feature that we would need to watch out for down into areas like Nicaragua.
04:38There it would be. So it would miss the connection with that trough, but stay far enough south. And
04:42then it may meander around long enough that it could be anybody's guess as to where it would go.
04:47This would be two weeks into the future, way out there into la-la land. And it would be drifting
04:52north, possibly drawn into the Dominican Republic or Haiti. Another opinion, the UK met. This system
04:58would stay pretty far south. And you could see it probably wouldn't survive much. You could see a
05:03fragment of it here in the UK met third opinion there into the central Caribbean, but there's not
05:09much circulation, just a hint of perhaps when we look at these wind barbs, a little bit of circulation
05:14there. It could become a tropical depression. And that could become a system that we need to track.
05:18And then the Canadian, a fourth opinion here. This one moves a little farther west. And this would
05:22ramp it up into Nicaragua or Honduras. And that would become a problem down that way.
05:27Now, I wanted to take a look at this flow chart that Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno made,
05:32kind of summarizing all this. Will this impact the U.S.? Here are the hurdles that it could face
05:37into early next week. Still a tropical wave. And it may be too far south. Could be too much land
05:43interaction or wind shear. And if it doesn't organize by midweek, it would dissipate. No impact.
05:48If it does survive in through the middle of the week, it would be over the Caribbean where there's
05:52warm water. Could develop into a storm. And then we get into questions. Would it move into Nicaragua
05:57or Honduras? Or could it interact with that trough near the east coast of the U.S.? If it drifts far
06:04enough north early enough, it would be driven out to sea. But it could potentially interact with that
06:09trough in such a way that it could be guided toward the U.S. east coast. And that would be our biggest
06:14concern here. If it doesn't, then we'd have no U.S. impacts there and out to sea.
Comments