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This episode of Statecraft covers major geopolitical shifts, starting with US President Donald Trump's proposed peace agreement with Iran. The draft understanding, which requires Arab states to join the Abraham Accords, challenges Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's long-standing strategy to isolate Tehran.
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00:17hello and welcome you're watching statecraft with me geeta mohan now can one failed war quietly
00:22destroy an entire regional strategy and while america stays distracted in west asia is china
00:28slowly building a financial system that bypasses washington altogether tonight two stories about
00:36power shifting in very different ways donald trump now appears open to a draft peace understanding
00:42with iran a move that could seriously weaken benjamin netanyahu's long-running vision for west
00:48asia after the iran war failed to deliver decisive results and then shift east china and pakistan
00:56expand one trade panda bonds and swap lines slowly reducing dependence on the dollar system one story
01:03about military limits the other about financial ambition all this and more but first up the
01:09headlines the irgc navy said 32 vessels including oil tankers container ships and other merchant ships
01:18passed through the strait of hormuz within the past 24 hours with permission firefighters continued their
01:25efforts to keep a tank of hazardous chemicals in california from exploding or leaking attacks on
01:32ebola health facilities are intensifying in the eastern democratic republic of the congo as the
01:37world health organization wants the outbreak could worsen in the drc and uganda while us and iran are
01:44working towards a peace agreement there's some big news that's coming in with president donald trump
01:49posting on truth social that there will be a mandatory requirement for arab states to join the abraham
01:55accords in order to have a peace agreement with iran now what is the abraham accord the abraham accord
02:00basically allows normalization of ties with israel of any country there are some countries who joined the
02:07abraham accord before the war with gaza in in gaza and after that and since the gaza war and now
02:14the iran war
02:15most countries are rather uncomfortable joining the abraham accord but what does this mean for iran and
02:22for the u.s to discuss this and more i'm being joined by senior managing editor gaurav savant gaurav thank
02:27you so much for joining us what does this announcement really mean mandatory maybe some leeway for some of
02:33the countries but is this the end of the peace deal with iran so this is a huge development and
02:42president
02:42trump actually wants to scale it to next level should it happen it's truly historic will it happen
02:49remains the big question of course one must keep in mind that there are five countries that have already
02:54signed the abraham accords the united arab emirates being one of them uh morocco sudan kazakhistan
03:00they've already signed this uh you know between 2020 and 2025 he wants the saudi arabia he wants saudi
03:07arabia to sign it he wants qatar to sign it he wants countries like turkey and pakistan to sign it
03:12and he says should this happen and uh his impression is that many should be on board maybe one or
03:18two
03:18will not uh but then they will then not be a part of the historic uh deal moving forward he
03:23anticipates
03:25or he hopes uh everybody will be on board because this will bring lasting peace to the region but will
03:31they ink the abraham accord um many say that several countries were on board had agreed in principle
03:39uh to recognize israel uh as a state to have embassies um in in each other's countries to
03:45normalize diplomatic trade and tourism and people-to-people contacts but can this actually
03:50happen given the current situation given what's happening um with gaza what's happening with hezbollah
03:56what's happening with iran will uh as president trump hopes iran one day come on board clearly it's
04:02a very very tall ask but right now this is huge uh if president trump thinks that uh that countries
04:09like saudi arabia and turkiye uh will come on board pakistan of course can be pushed uh it's a client
04:16state of the united states of america uh you know they may oppose it but ultimately they they are you
04:22know his master's voice but saudi arabia and turkiye is a big big question india is all set to host
04:29a
04:30meeting of the quadrilateral security dialogue of 2026 that's the quad foreign ministers meeting
04:35which will be chaired by indian external affairs minister dr sj shankar it will be held on the 26th
04:42of may that's tuesday when top diplomats of all quad nations will be coming together
04:47in the national capital of new delhi the meeting will be attended by foreign minister
04:53dr jay shankar u.s secretary of state marco rubio foreign minister of japan
04:57toshimitsu motegi and australian foreign minister penny wong this is marco rubio's first visit to india
05:04now the quad has emerged as a significant strategic grouping focused on maintaining peace security and
05:11stability in the indo-pacific region the upcoming summit is expected to exchange views on advancing
05:17quad cooperation across priority areas review progress on ongoing quad initiatives and reflect
05:23on recent developments in the indo-pacific region and other international issues of mutual concern
05:29based on the minister's meetings that will build on the discussions that were held in washington on
05:37the first of july last year now yes secretary of state marco rubio in his uh india leg is now
05:44on a
05:44visit to agra and has clarified on the question related to racism comment from the united states
05:50of america on his way to agra rubio was once again quizzed by indian reporters about his remarks on
05:56racism rubio stated that president trump loves india and is a big fan of prime minister narendra modi
06:02rubio once again added that some people say anything on social media and branded them stupid
06:09now amid the crucial visit of trump's aid to india all eyes are on peace deal with iran
06:15rubio has made it clear that the u.s will have a good agreement or will have to deal with
06:21iran in
06:22another way anyone iran um we're still a work in progress as i said you know uh we thought we
06:30might
06:30have some news last night maybe today i wouldn't read too much into it takes a little while to hear
06:34back
06:35so we have what i think is a pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to
06:40open up
06:40the straits get the straits open enter into a very real significant time limited negotiation on the
06:46nuclear matters and hopefully we can pull it off it has a lot of support in the gulf has a
06:50lot of
06:51support globally every country that we've walked through it understands it's very not just very
06:55reasonable but it's the right thing for the world to get done as the president said he's not in a
06:59hurry
06:59he's not going to make a bad deal i mean the president's not going to make a bad agreement
07:03so let's see what happens we're going to give diplomacy every chance to succeed before we
07:07we explore the alternatives what's the hold up right now is there something that needs to be done
07:11it's just a response i mean when you get down to some of these things you got to hear back
07:15and it
07:15takes the iranian system a little while longer to get back um so like i look the president's not
07:21going to make a bad deal he's just not this this issue no one has done more and no one
07:27has been
07:27more serious about the threat of a nuclear iran than president trump has been and so i'm very
07:32confident we should all be very confident that we're not going to have a we're either going to
07:35have a good agreement or we're going to have to deal with it another way we'd prefer to have a
07:38good
07:38agreement meanwhile during a press conference external affairs minister dr s jay shankar said
07:44he had raised issues concerning visas and the problems faced by indian travelers secretary rubio
07:50clarified that changes made in the green card and visa policies were not directed towards india
07:55the changes are a part of president trump's crackdown on illegal immigration the changes that
08:03are happening now or the modernization of our migration system into the united states is not
08:08focused it's not india specific it is global it's being applied across the world we are in a period
08:13of modernization and i'll be frank and honest with you because it's important to talk about this
08:17we've had a migratory crisis in the united states uh this is not because of india but but broadly
08:23we had over 20 million people illegally enter the united states over the last few years and
08:28we've had to address that challenge in addition to that challenge and i think this is true for india
08:32this is true for every country in the world okay everything that you do as a country needs to be
08:37in
08:37your national interest and that includes your immigration policy the united states i believe is
08:42the most welcoming country in the world on my on immigration um you know every single year a million
08:47people roughly become permanent residents of the united states and contribute greatly my parents
08:53entered the united states as permanent residents in 1956 from cuba and uh and so it's a process that's
09:00enriched us but it has to be a process that's adjusted in every era to the realities of the modern
09:05times in
09:05which you live and we are and it's long overdue so the united states is currently undergoing a process
09:10of reforming the system by which we choose who how many people come into our country who comes in when
09:18they come in etc and joining me now is roe chema our dc correspondent who's flown down from dc to
09:24delhi
09:25for the rubio visit and interviewed rubio himself uh roe thank you so much for joining us here the first
09:31question would be on quad uh in your interview the secretary of state made it very clear that the focus
09:39is
09:39going to be maritime security india has been ensuring that quad does not become a military
09:45grouping or a military block because that's something that will rile china in such a scenario
09:51how do you see quad going forward when it comes to maritime security well i think one of the that's
09:56one of the aspects which is what indian side always says like this is one of the things that we
10:00want to
10:01talk and discuss and for good reasons why india does not want it to become a military block but i
10:06think
10:06as far as america is concerned and this administration is concerned even they have had a resetting of
10:12relationship with china so we'll have to wait and watch until that meeting happens tomorrow what
10:17wordings are used what is the readout actually saying you know secretary rubia may may have gotten ahead
10:22of himself we do not know that yet but i think those discussions still need to take place and as
10:26far
10:26as we know as far as india is concerned i think they do not want it to become one of
10:30those military
10:31blocks that possibly the last administration and in the u.s wanted to become that's number one the
10:36other big thing is and as you also know in his interview he talked about how it's a priority for
10:40this administration he reminded there was a you know president donald trump that really you know
10:46started uh making quads something something important than what was before so we'll have to see
10:51it's really close to his heart he believes that there could be a squad leadership meeting this year
10:55which again hasn't happened since 2024 india was supposed to hold it in 2024 uh we gave that spot
11:02to president biden as a farewell you know gift to say it did not happen 2025 but this is the
11:07year i think
11:08this is a restarting core making it important and trying to get to that leaders summit whereas he said
11:14in our interview when i spoke to him yesterday he said there could be a big deliverable so we'll have
11:19to wait and watch in that geetha okay uh but when it comes to deliverables on the bilateral front
11:24this is a rare visit because uh secretary of state marco rubio does not really travel very often and
11:30when he does it is not a long visit such as the one that we're seeing right now for city
11:34tour of india
11:36is this in many ways a reset he did not want to use that term i think the bilateral is
11:42like i don't
11:43like this you know it's not a reset we've always been strong i mean he's trying to you know make
11:47sure
11:47that well first trying to make sure that things are fine indicating and giving the right signs and
11:53signals by traveling in this heat everybody's talking about how hot it is right now in agra and
11:58jeopardy still trying to do the golden triangle thing i think that kind of tells you that this is
12:02important for america this is important for the institution this is important for them that this
12:08relationship that they've nurtured in the last two and a half decade does not go astray so i think
12:12we'll have to see i mean look at the end of the day there's one bigger boss the final boss
12:16who sits
12:17in washington dc who decides what happens and does not happen so this visit has obviously been
12:21grinned by the president of the united states who called in last night to say he loves india he loves
12:25prime minister modi he loves everything so again yes definitely a reset after what we saw coming out
12:32from some of the cabinet minister president donald trump in 2025 but secretary rubio as it's been pointed
12:37out even during his senate years championed for great relationships with india for deepening ties with
12:43india and i think he's indicating that again hopefully things will be fine after this visit
12:49right what's really interesting is that he's come here for the golden quadrilateral visit for cities
12:54and he'll be culminating with the quad foreign ministers meeting roi chairman thank you so much
12:59for joining us thank you for years israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu built his entire west
13:05asia strategy around one central promise that peace in the region would only come after iran was
13:11weakened isolated or ultimately broken the idea was simple crush the islamic republic eliminate the
13:19iranian threat and arab states would move fully into israel's orbit but now that entire doctrine
13:25is facing one of its biggest political shocks in years because donald trump netanyahu's closest
13:31political ally appears to be moving in the opposite direction toward a draft peace understanding with
13:38tehran instead of permanent confrontation the political tremors began after us president donald trump
13:45revealed that a preliminary peace arrangement with iran had been largely negotiated the announcement
13:52came after discussions with key arab and islamic leaders and it immediately triggered panic
13:57among america's hardline pro-israel conservatives republican senator ted cruz attacked the proposal as
14:05iran appeasement former secretary of state mike pompeo compared it to barack obama's 2015 iran nuclear deal
14:12the very agreement trump himself abandoned during his first presidency but this time something different
14:20is happening inside trump's camp the white house's anti-war faction is openly fighting back
14:27trump advisors publicly clashed with republican hawks online the divide is no longer hidden it is now a
14:34visible civil war inside the american right over iran policy and at the center of this political storm stands
14:41benjamin netanyahu because according to several analysts trump's confidence in the israeli prime minister
14:47has sharply declined after the recent iran war failed to deliver the sweeping results netanyahu had promised
14:56israel's calculations were built around the expectation of decisive strategic change the collapse of iran's
15:02leadership internal chaos perhaps even regime change but none of that happened iran absorbed the military
15:10strikes the state structure survived and now instead of escalation washington appears ready to stabilize
15:17relations through diplomacy that creates a massive political problem for netanyahu because he sold the
15:24confrontation with iran as historic and transformational not temporary not symbolic decisive if trump now moves
15:33toward a negotiated framework that gives tehran economic breathing room and diplomatic legitimacy netanyahu's
15:41long-standing iran doctrine begins to look badly weakened the damage is not just military or diplomatic it is deeply
15:49personal and political netanyahu spent years warning the world against exactly this type of arrangement
15:55a deal where iran gains time sanctions relief and oil export flexibility before its nuclear program is fully
16:03dismantled and now ironically that possibility may emerge under trump himself that is why this moment
16:12matters far beyond washington and tehran it directly threatens netanyahu's broader vision for west asia for
16:20years israel hoped the abraham accords would gradually pull arab states into an israeli-led regional security
16:27system against iran the assumption was that gulf monarchies would eventually see israel as their main
16:34security anchor but the recent conflict exposed the limits of that idea despite tensions with tehran arab
16:43states showed little appetite for joining a direct confrontation with iran many gulf governments were deeply
16:49uncomfortable with the escalation itself they wanted stability not a regional war analysts now say gulf
16:57countries still value quiet intelligence and technology cooperation with israel but they do not want strategic
17:03dependence on israel instead they're diversifying relationships with the united states europe turkey
17:10pakistan and even maintaining managed channels with iran itself also given the fact that there has been a
17:18situation in gaza that does not really help the arab states to have a full-fledged relationship with israel
17:26and that changes the regional equation dramatically because netanyahu's strategy depended on
17:32one core assumption that fear of iran would permanently unite israel and the arab world under a shared
17:40security framework but today arab states appear far more pragmatic than ideological they want economic
17:47stability investment flows energy security and regional calm not endless confrontation trump seems to
17:55understand that political reality his recent statements suggest he still hopes for broader west asia
18:02normalization but before de-escalation rather than permanent war that places netanyahu in an increasingly
18:09difficult position especially if washington begins prioritizing strategic stability over military escalation and
18:17there's another complication netanyahu tied himself extremely closely to trump politically over the years
18:23that strengthened his standing with republicans but it also alienated large sections of the democratic
18:31party now even trump begins drifting away from netanyahu's hardline iran agenda the israeli prime minister could
18:39find himself politically isolated in washington in ways not seen before the war with iran was supposed to
18:47reshape west asia in israel's favor instead it may end up exposing the limits of military power the limits of
18:54regional coercion and the limits of netanyahu's long-running strategic vision because if trump's draft
19:00peace pact moves forward it will send a clear signal across the region that washington may no longer be
19:07willing to be willing to fight natanyahu's iran wars indefinitely and that could fundamentally alter the
19:13future balance of power in west asia as a whole there has been a fresh escalation between russia and ukraine
19:21after ukrainian drones hit a student dorm in russian control luhansk killing 21 people mostly young
19:28female students russia retaliated by pounding kiev and surrounding areas with hundreds of drones and missiles on
19:35the 24th of may russia launched one of the heaviest bombardments since the start of the war firing an
19:41orashnik hypersonic missile near the capital video footage showed missiles hitting the ground creating
19:48flashes of light and explosions with smoke rising from impact sites air defense systems were also seen
19:54engaging incoming projectiles across the ukrainian capital's skyline the strikes killed at least one person
20:01and injured 21 ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky said russia hit the city of bila sirkwa in ukraine's
20:10kiev region with an orashnik intermediate range ballistic missile zelensky also visited a kiev neighborhood
20:16after it was heavily damaged in the russian attack russian president vladimir putin earlier called the
20:23attack on the dorm a terrorist strike stressing that the attack was deliberate and that ukrainian forces
20:29launched three waves of strikes at the same location about 86 children and teachers were inside when the
20:37drone struck the victims at the dorm were aged between 14 and 18 40 people were injured in the attack
20:45following the attack russian defense ministry said defense minister andrei bilosov inspected a command
20:52center of russia's vostok east grouping of forces fighting in ukraine bilosov was also seen awarding troops
21:02the dollar had one job one be the world's go-to currency for decades it did exactly that untouchable
21:10unquestioned unmoved and now china and pakistan quietly decided they were done with it as of may 2026
21:20nearly 25 percent of china pakistan trade happened in one not dollars pakistan issued its first ever
21:27panda bonds borrowing 250 million dollars straight from china's domestic markets in one no dollar
21:35involved their share jumped from 5.6 percent in 2016 to 25 in 2026 that's not a trend that's a
21:45structural
21:45shift so who built this exit and is america even paying attention why are china and pakistan ditching
21:53dollars simple money pressure pakistan constantly struggles with foreign exchange shortages every time
22:01dollar reserves fall imports become expensive and financing becomes painful since china is pakistan's
22:09biggest economic partner islamabad looked for a simpler route instead of converting pakistani
22:15rupees into dollars and then dollars into one for chinese trade both countries started settling transactions
22:22directly in one that cuts costs it reduces delays it also reduces pakistan's dependence on the us dollar system
22:32china benefits too every trade deal settled in one strengthens beijing's long-term goal of making its
22:40currency more international china wants the one to become more than just a domestic currency it wants it to
22:46become a serious regional financial tool that is why pakistan's panda bond matters pakistan borrowed directly
22:55in one from china's domestic market not dollars not euros one that means china is no longer just exporting
23:04goods it is exporting financial influence then comes the swap line china and pakistan renewed a 30 billion
23:12one currency swap agreement in one currency swap agreement in simple terms pakistan gets easier access to one
23:18liquidity whenever needed that reduces immediate pressure to hunt for dollars for china related trade and
23:25projects like cpec this is especially important because cpec itself runs heavily through chinese financing
23:32chinese contractors and chinese infrastructure projects direct yuan settlements make those transactions
23:39smoother now the obvious question is the u.s dollar slowly losing control yes and no the dollar still
23:47dominates global trade reserves and international finance nobody's overthrowing it tomorrow morning but
23:54cracks are appearing in the monopoly countries no longer want complete dependence on a system controlled by
24:02washington especially countries that fear sanctions restrictions or financial pressure that is where china steps
24:09in beijing is building an alternative network where trade borrowing and financing can happen without always touching
24:17the dollar first not to completely destroy the dollar at least not yet but definitely to reduce dependence on it
24:26and this is exactly why russia and iran matter in the story why russia and iran doing this too because
24:33both
24:33countries understand the risks of relying too heavily on the dollar system russia already explored non-dollar trade
24:41arrangements with china using one iran also wants alternatives because ordinary dollar transactions often become
24:48politically complicated due to sanctions pressure so china's one system starts looking attractive pakistan now
24:56now sees the china model as something it can expand with russia and iran too local currencies swap lines alternate
25:04payment
25:04systems less dollar dependence this is not ideology it is practicality countries under pressure want backup systems and
25:14yes over time this could weaken america's global influence why because the dollar is not just currency it is
25:21geopolitical power the more the world depends on dollar based systems the more leverage washington has over
25:29global finance if countries slowly reduce the dependence america loses some of that leverage but again this is not a
25:37total financial revolution pakistan needs dollars russia still needs dollars in many sectors even china itself
25:46cannot fully escape the dollar based global system the one still lacks the same level of trust liquidity and
25:54global acceptance why has brics struggled with de-dollarization while china suddenly looks effective
26:00because brics mostly produced headlines china built mechanisms there is a huge difference between announcing plans
26:08and building financial systems that businesses can actually use china created the plumbing yuan
26:15settlement systems swap agreements banking access financial tools trade infrastructure panda bonds
26:24pakistani banks and chinese banks can already support yuan denominated trade finance and investment
26:30transactions that strategy works better and that may be the biggest takeaway here china is not trying to
26:37destroy the dollar overnight it is slowly building a parallel financial ecosystem where countries can trade
26:44borrow and settle transactions with less dependence on washington brics debated the concept china
26:51operationalized parts of it that's all in this edition of statecraft before we go we show you this in mexico
26:59city a giant mural celebrating the country's football history has just earned a guinness world record as
27:07the world's largest largest mural painted entirely with brushes created ahead of the 2026 fifa world cup
27:14the artwork the artwork blends iconic football imagery with famous mexico city landmarks hundreds gathered
27:21waving flags and wearing jerseys as former football stars unveiled the mural take a look at the visuals enjoy
27:28goodbye goodbye and take care
27:31Go to the world, go to the world, go to the world!
27:38Well, go to the world, go to the world!
27:415, 4, 3, 2, 1...
27:45There he is!
27:47This is the world's largest world!
27:50A Pichel!
27:51The President of the World, Carlos Lozano,
27:53is to receive this award for Gine Records
27:55as the largest mural in the world!
27:59Because we decided to turn our city in the example of Mexico!
28:09That's it! Very good!
28:26The President of the World
28:29This philosophy is a way by navigation ์ค Ourะฝัะผะธ
28:32Go to the world!
28:32Well by Anda!
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