- 7 weeks ago
As anti-Khamenei protests escalate in Iran, we raise these questions on the show: Will the United States launch airstrikes on Iran? Is Trump actually looking now to topple Khamenei regime?
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00:00So will the United States actually go ahead and launch the airstrikes on Iran?
00:04Is Trump actually looking now to topple another regime, this time in Tehran?
00:09And how will the Khamenei regime respond now?
00:11Are we heading for another conflict that could spread across West Asia and affect India as well?
00:17Joining me now, KC Singh is a former Indian ambassador. He served in Tehran.
00:22Roxana Chagini is an Iranian-born cultural analyst, advocate for democratic transition there.
00:27Burzeen Vagma, Centre for Iranian Studies at SOAS at the University in London.
00:32I appreciate all of you joining us on the show tonight.
00:36I want to come to you first, Burzeen.
00:39What are you making out of what is happening in Iran at the moment?
00:42Are you seeing this now as the tip of the iceberg?
00:45And in the days ahead, we could actually see a regime being toppled even without the United States entry?
00:51Or do the protesters need U.S. intervention if they are to topple a regime that's been in place for almost five decades?
01:01President Trump's rhetoric and intervention threats are entirely welcome
01:07because at least someone in the Western world has the guts and the moral gumption
01:11to state something when most Western capitals, including London,
01:15do not wish to provoke Iran and turn a blind eye to what is happening.
01:19As a government, Tiananmen style is mowing down its own population in cold blood.
01:25As all 31 provinces are wracked by violence and protests,
01:30there are no insurrectionists or Israelis or Mossad agents on ground.
01:34This is a populist movement.
01:36And what makes it distinct from previous protests, which have happened endemically since July 1999,
01:42in this case is that the regime has also lost its traditional Shia middle class and low middle class support of the bazaar.
01:51The merchants who with their patronage networks and the clergy are hand in glove
01:55and have bolstered the regime and who ironically were the ones who toppled Pahlavi back in 1779.
02:02Do they still need Trump to intervene, Burzeen, for actually a regime change?
02:09Given the fact, the kind of command and fear factor, some would say, critics of this regime would say,
02:16it's a hit Iranian society over the years.
02:20Can you actually have a regime change without U.S. intervention in Tehran?
02:24Well, that depends on how much you ratchet up pressure on the regime,
02:30because nobody is doing that, but it is time for some kinetic action.
02:34Otherwise, this regime doesn't think twice about killing its own population in cold blood,
02:39be it 12-year-old children who are not Zionist agents, obviously,
02:43and it insults anyone's intelligence to tell me that they are,
02:46or women and children and the unarmed, including old people.
02:49And it's not just a Gen Z protest asking for civil liberties and less restrictive practices.
02:57It includes the poorest sections of Iranian society this time, too,
03:01including the working class, including Tehran's tram and bus unions,
03:04which is a very powerful union that has come out in favor of it,
03:08including the unions lasted of the railway and the textile sectors.
03:12So it has to build up as a quantum of force.
03:15And please remember, we are just into a fortnight.
03:17It took 13 months to topple the Shah, which started from Jan 78 until his departure in Jan 79.
03:25And today, it's not just President Trump,
03:27but we have bipartisan support from the Democrats and the left strand,
03:31when Alexandria Ocasio Court is also waded in by saying that we stand with the protesters
03:36who are being moved down by the government.
03:38So there is bipartisan support now on the Hill to see something through.
03:42You know, you're saying to see something new, but Roxana Chagini,
03:49any regime needs, can only be toppled once it loses its moral and political authority.
03:58Do you believe it's lost that?
04:00Or do you believe it needs a push from the outside?
04:03I come back to it.
04:04Do you believe it's strong enough from within?
04:06I believe what we are witnessing is not a demonstration, it's a revolution,
04:11it's a result of 47 years of resilience.
04:15And it came to a point that a change, a revolution is absolutely needed.
04:21And the world can see that we cannot continue with this regime.
04:26We cannot count on this regime.
04:28We cannot expect this regime is going to get better.
04:32And I think a help from outside, Donald Trump is the only one who is undiplomatic enough
04:39to make a big decision and be unpolitically correct and make this decision
04:46and help Iran for a democratic transition.
04:50I think that...
04:50And impose a member of the Shah family on the people of Iran.
04:58There will be those who will say, this is Iran's issues.
05:01Iran's internal affairs cannot be decided in Washington.
05:06What is happening with Prince Reza Pahlavi?
05:09He wants only to be the leader of this transition.
05:13And then we are hoping that we can get a free vote.
05:16That people can say what they want.
05:18Do you want the president?
05:19Do you want the monarchie continuing?
05:21And that's only the transition.
05:23And this is not...
05:26The world cannot close their eyes to what's happening.
05:30And this killing is not only in each demonstration.
05:34They are killing from the day one.
05:36Their strategy is based on killing whatever.
05:40Their strategy is based on exporting their ideology to the world,
05:45to Europe, to America, to Australia.
05:47I think that's time.
05:51And probably it will going to happen soon.
05:56Let me bring in Casey Singh.
05:59But before I...
06:00Casey, why U.S. may strike Iran?
06:04A, because regime change, as we've been seeing,
06:06is high on Donald Trump's agenda.
06:10The Ayatollah's community regime, many believe, is at its weakest.
06:14Crisis in leadership, particularly after what we saw
06:18with the U.S.-Israel airstrikes in 2025,
06:21killing many senior members of the Revolutionary Guards.
06:24Khamini himself is 86 years old.
06:27No clear line of succession.
06:29Iran's proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah,
06:31have been to some extent decimated.
06:34And the U.S. airstrikes on the nuke plants in 2025
06:36may give them extra confidence.
06:40On the other hand, while U.S. may not strike Iran,
06:43a full-blown war different to a nuclear strike,
06:46Iran has shown it can penetrate Israel's Iron Dome.
06:50Trump could push for human rights reforms
06:53instead of a regime change.
06:55War could make U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia, UAE,
06:58prone to U.S. attacks.
07:00There are U.S. bases in West Asia.
07:02Where do you think, on balance,
07:04given what you're seeing happening in Tehran,
07:07where do you think the Trump regime
07:08will wear at this moment?
07:10And what's the critical factor behind any final decision?
07:16I think there's lack of clarity
07:17because you've heard two points of view here
07:20which have taken a very pro-protester stand.
07:23There is also, they are saying there is no Mossad there,
07:26but Jerusalem Post has carried an article
07:28saying Mossad is involved with it very much in this.
07:32And there were, you see, only 60% of the population of Iran
07:36is Persian, of Persian origin.
07:39Then you've got Azeris,
07:40you've got all kinds of other minorities.
07:43So it's very easy to incite them
07:45from neighboring countries
07:46and get people within Iran
07:48if you give them arms
07:50and you foist them and start it up.
07:52Now the question is,
07:53how does America,
07:54by attacking militarily without boots on the ground,
07:58simply by attacking from the air,
07:59how do they depose a government?
08:01Because don't forget,
08:02this is an alliance between the clerics now
08:04and the IRGC.
08:06And the IRGC is very strongly enmeshed
08:09into the businesses in Iran.
08:13So it is not the,
08:14the old bazaar is no longer as strong
08:16as it used to be, say, in 1979.
08:18Just because the shops are shut
08:20doesn't mean that business is not operational
08:23because IRGC is controlling a huge part
08:25of the business sector.
08:28And they have been preparing for this.
08:31They've got help from Russia.
08:32The Chinese have come out in open support.
08:35And last thing they want is Americans
08:37to be able to foist some new person
08:39in Tehran to run that country.
08:42So it's not great.
08:43And then GCC is divided.
08:45It's not like it happened
08:46the last time that Iran was attacked.
08:48Saudis and the Emiratis have fallen out.
08:50Saudis are busy pushing Emiratis out of Yemen,
08:54out of southern Sudan, out of Libya.
08:56So the GCC itself,
08:58the ruling families are split.
09:00Now, what is it the Americans can do?
09:02Now, if America had a button
09:03they could press and remove the government,
09:05there was no need to have announced 25% tariffs.
09:09Now, tariffs mean you want to exert
09:11more economic pressure on Iran.
09:13So if you are taking a military step
09:15and you're going to eliminate that,
09:16what is the need to,
09:18you know, supposing they remove the government,
09:20and will he then remove the tariffs tomorrow?
09:22It doesn't make any sense.
09:24And the tariffs will affect.
09:25India will affect.
09:26China will affect.
09:26Germany.
09:27But more than that, Casey,
09:28but more than that, Casey,
09:30the fact that you mentioned
09:32the Chinese, the Russians,
09:33this could drag in several other nations.
09:36Boots on the ground
09:36is something the Americans
09:38would surely be wary of
09:39in a country like Iran.
09:41Absolutely.
09:42And without boots on the ground,
09:45you know,
09:45what support do you give
09:46to the popular protesters?
09:47And the reports that are coming out
09:50are conflicting.
09:51Some are saying
09:52that the Iranians have managed
09:54to get more or less control
09:56of the protesting situation
09:57of the protesters.
09:59Their foreign minister said,
10:01we are going to just
10:01stop the control over the internet.
10:04In fact,
10:04some calls are coming out now.
10:06Internet restrictions
10:07have not been removed,
10:08but the calls are coming out of Iran.
10:10So some restrictions
10:11have been removed.
10:12They wouldn't do it
10:13if they were really
10:14completely under pressure.
10:15And definitely,
10:17if there's a massive attack
10:19on the IRGC
10:20and the regime,
10:22they've said that
10:22they've got a huge collection
10:24of missiles.
10:25And they say last time
10:26they made a mistake
10:26and they waited.
10:27And their missile sites
10:28were taken out.
10:30This time they said
10:31we'll go after our targets,
10:32including U.S. bases
10:33and Israel
10:35and whatever else
10:36they want to attack.
10:37And that can widen the conflict.
10:39And that is what India
10:40is concerned about.
10:41We have 8 million persons
10:43of Indian origin
10:43and the Gulf.
10:45Oil price will go up.
10:46So far,
10:46it hasn't gone up.
10:47Oil price gets spiked
10:49and then you will not
10:50have stability
10:51for a long time.
10:52So it's not clear to me
10:54what is it
10:55that America can do militarily
10:56which can change
10:58the equations in Iran
10:59overnight
11:00or within a week.
11:00So, you know,
11:04Burzeen Vagmar,
11:06this is not,
11:07the question I asked
11:08John Bolton also earlier,
11:09this is not Venezuela,
11:11this is Iran,
11:11a mighty ancient civilization,
11:14a mighty strong army
11:15with allies like Russia
11:17and China
11:18with whom they do
11:18major deals
11:20with ballistic missiles,
11:21with the possibility
11:23of using them
11:24against any possible adversary.
11:27Do you believe
11:28that there is more hope
11:30than,
11:31the reality seems
11:32to suggest
11:33that if they hold out,
11:35the regime will last?
11:37Russia and China
11:38are going to do nothing
11:39to save this regime.
11:41If you understand
11:42what Chinese modus operandi
11:43is when it comes to
11:44not interfering
11:45in the internal affairs
11:47and China takes
11:48a decided stance
11:49on Middle East matters
11:49as such
11:50because it doesn't have
11:51a direct impact on it.
11:53The only Chinese
11:54and Russian contribution
11:55I have seen so far,
11:57Rajdeep,
11:58is of surveillance technology
12:00and intelligence inputs
12:01for crowd control,
12:03facial recognition
12:04and deep packet
12:05information technology
12:06which Beijing
12:07has transferred
12:08to Tehran
12:09after the Green Movement
12:11of 2009.
12:12And fat chance
12:13Putin is going
12:14to do anything
12:15with the current
12:16Ukrainian imbroglio
12:17to upset Trump.
12:19Putin has no love loss
12:21and as Moscow
12:22has made it plain
12:23over the years
12:23that they do not want
12:24to see a nuclearized
12:26Iran too
12:26where it was part
12:27of the JCPO
12:28arrangements as such.
12:29Point number one.
12:30Point number two,
12:32the IRGC controls
12:3460% of the economy.
12:35That is absolutely right
12:37and they are the
12:37Rottweilers of the regime
12:38that keep it going.
12:40But unlike 1979,
12:43you have today
12:4480% who are opportunists,
12:4620% ideologues.
12:48Peel away the 80% opportunists
12:50and tell them
12:50that this is a tottering ship
12:52and they could come across.
12:54Then there is the question
12:55of the artesh
12:56or the traditional military,
12:58the tri-services.
12:59The regime does not
13:00trust the military
13:01because they have always felt
13:03that they are
13:04a professional outfit,
13:05which indeed they are,
13:06compared to the guards
13:07who are an ideologically
13:08based outfit
13:09and there is no love lost
13:10and there has been
13:11consistent tension
13:12between them
13:12over the last 47 years.
13:14Something has to give.
13:16Let me finish, please.
13:17something has to give
13:18if the police
13:20stops firing
13:21or if the artesh,
13:23the tri-services
13:23and the military
13:24armed forces
13:25refuse to stop
13:26shooting at their
13:28own population.
13:29That is a point
13:30where we can see
13:31a chink in the armor
13:32because nothing will happen
13:33until then as such.
13:37Final word,
13:38a quick word, Casey.
13:40Do you see this
13:40as a moment
13:41of a revolution
13:42or is that,
13:44as both my other guests
13:45have said,
13:46that this is a moment
13:46of revolution in Iran
13:48or is that an exaggeration,
13:50a quick answer?
13:50I think it's a bit
13:52of an exaggeration.
13:53Brzezinski,
13:54who was a national
13:54security advisor
13:55in 1979,
13:57in his biography,
13:59he's written
13:59that the problem was
14:00that Shah would use
14:02violence intermittently.
14:05He would use it
14:06and people will get killed,
14:07then he will step back.
14:09Then he'll ring up
14:10Washington and say,
14:10what do I do now?
14:12And they said,
14:12look,
14:12we can't be telling you
14:13to shoot at your people.
14:15You are the Shah.
14:16Take a step on your own.
14:18And there's a phrase
14:19that Brzezinski used.
14:20He said by constantly
14:21applying pressure,
14:23stepping back,
14:24he immunized the population.
14:26They stopped getting scared
14:27and that's when
14:27defections began.
14:29Defections don't
14:30begin from the
14:32Revolutionary Guard
14:33in a week
14:34or 10 days
14:35or 15 days.
14:36It takes a long time
14:37like it did in 79
14:39and it needs
14:40consistent pressure
14:41for it to happen.
14:43And I don't think
14:44anybody,
14:45even those
14:46who are in the
14:46Revolutionary Guard
14:47would trust Trump.
14:48That is a problem.
14:49You don't know
14:49because tomorrow
14:50he may change his mind.
14:51He's already said
14:52he doesn't want
14:52Shah's son to run Iran.
14:54He'll do the same thing
14:56he did in Venezuela.
14:56He would like
14:57a Venezuela-like solution
14:58which is get
15:00from within the regime
15:01another phase
15:03which plays the game
15:04with him.
15:04Let me leave it there.
15:08And that's not easy
15:09because Tehran
15:10is clearly not
15:10Karakas
15:11in different ways.
15:12But we'll see
15:13how Iran
15:15what happens
15:16on the ground there
15:17because whatever
15:18happens in Iran
15:19will influence
15:19the world
15:20including India.
15:21I appreciate
15:22my guests
15:23joining me here
15:24on my big
15:25talking point.
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