- 12 hours ago
US President Donald Trump claims Iranian negotiators are 'begging for a deal' but not admitting it publicly, warning them to get serious soon or face consequences.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching Newstrap with me, Maria Shaquille, a fast-evolving situation in West Asia
00:05with simultaneous military escalation and diplomatic signaling, though limited.
00:12While Washington pushed a sweeping 15-point framework, Tehran is adamant about its five conditions,
00:19saying that it will not negotiate while military operations continue.
00:23And now in a stark warning, Donald Trump says that Iranian negotiators are begging, quote-unquote,
00:30for a deal, but not admitting it publicly, urging them to get serious soon or face consequences,
00:37warning there will be no turning back.
00:40First, take a look at this report, and then I bring in the guests.
00:47On day 27 of West Asia war, U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted at winding down operations in West
00:54Asia.
00:55But Tehran has five conditions for ending the war.
01:00Iran wants a complete halt to aggression and assassinations by U.S. and Israel.
01:06Iran also wants a formal recognition of its right to control maritime activity in Strait of Hormuz.
01:12Iran also insists that any peace deal include groups like Hezbollah aligned with Tehran
01:18and an end to Israel's invasion of Lebanon.
01:21This comes right after Trump's 15-point proposal for Iran to end the war.
01:26Trump insisted that Iran was taking part in peace talks, suggesting Tehran's denials were because Iranian negotiators feared being killed
01:34by their own side.
01:38We did a lot. We settled eight wars.
01:40People sort of forget.
01:43And we're winning another one, I tell you.
01:44We're winning so big, nobody's ever seen anything like we're doing in the Middle East with Iran.
01:50And they are negotiating, by the way, and they want to make a deal so badly,
01:53but they're afraid to say it because they figure they'll be killed by their own people.
01:59They're also afraid they'll be killed by us.
02:02Trump also portrayed an Iran armed with nuke as a cancer,
02:06saying the United States has cut it out through its ongoing military operation against the Islamic Republic.
02:14Energy prices, oil prices, would go up higher.
02:18I thought the stock market would go somewhat lower.
02:21But it didn't matter to me.
02:22Short term, what we had to do is get rid of the cancer.
02:25We had to cut out the cancer.
02:27The cancer was Iran with a nuclear weapon.
02:31And we've cut it out.
02:33Now we're going to finish it off.
02:35White House has now hinted the conflict with Iran could be over by the time President Donald Trump travels to
02:41China
02:41for his rescheduled visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15.
02:48White House has signaled a limited war timeline, claiming an estimate of four to six weeks before the war ends.
02:55This comes amid Trump's rescheduled visit to China on May 14 and 15.
02:59This two-day visit to China by U.S. President is seen as winding down of West Asia war.
03:05This is now seen as the soft deadline for Iran conflict.
03:09However, Iran continues to reject any ceasefire, escalating attacks on U.S. and Iran.
03:16White House, meanwhile, has cautioned media over speculation and reporting about potential true stocks that could take place in Pakistan.
03:26I've seen a lot of speculation and reporting about potential talks that could happen later this week.
03:33Nothing should be deemed official until it is announced formally by the White House.
03:37I would not get ahead of our skis on reporting about any talks this week and until you hear directly
03:42from us.
03:43It now remains to be seen whether the new proposal of truce will remain in place
03:48or is just a smokescreen before a massive escalation.
03:52Bureau Report, India Today.
03:58And let me go straight to New Jersey from where Jason Greenblatt from a Trump aide
04:04and U.S. Middle East envoy, someone who has worked closely in the administration's regional strategy
04:11and one of the architects of the Abraham Accords is joining us live.
04:16Jason, appreciate your time.
04:18In the last 24 hours, we have seen mixed signals.
04:20Trump says Iran wants a deal, Tehran refuses, talks while escalating.
04:26Is this coordinated pressure or a breakdown in messaging?
04:32Well, I think it's, first of all, thanks for having me.
04:34I think it's two things.
04:35First of all, you have a lot of people online guessing.
04:39You have a lot of people saying they know what President Trump thinks and is doing, and that's not correct.
04:44But the second is, I think that President Trump really is speaking to somebody, somebody of some significance,
04:49whether he has the power or not, we don't know.
04:51And the Iranian regime, and I understand this, wouldn't want people to understand that they might be having to make
04:57a deal that works for President Trump.
04:58So I think what they're saying is, no, no, no, no deal until maybe there's a deal.
05:02I do personally think the chances of a deal, the kind of deal that needs to be made, the kind
05:07of deal that President Trump is looking for, is quite low.
05:10But I support anything to see if he could stop the war and make a deal that protects the United
05:15States, our Middle East allies, and indeed the world.
05:19OK, so you have made interesting points, as you know President Trump well.
05:24You say that he is in talks with someone, but given the kind of betrayal that Iran has been speaking
05:31about,
05:32that this war began even as the two sides were on the talking table, Iran is being careful.
05:38And that's why they are dismissing these talks?
05:42I think that's part of the reason they might be dismissing it.
05:44But let's remember, I know people characterize it as if President Trump surprised them because they were at the diplomatic
05:50table.
05:51At that diplomatic table, the person for Iran who was negotiating basically told Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy of
05:58the White House,
05:58that they had plenty of nuclear material to make a nuclear weapon.
06:02So he came to the talk, put his gun on the table.
06:05That's not talking. That's not diplomacy.
06:07So they shouldn't be surprised that President Trump didn't take them seriously and executed the attack.
06:13OK, so let's talk about this social media warning, which has come in from Donald Trump just, you know, a
06:21couple of hours back.
06:22And he's saying that Iran has no turning back.
06:25The big question now is that if talks fail, what will be our president's next move, diplomacy, more sanctions or
06:35a military option?
06:37I don't think diplomacy is going to work.
06:39If the talks fail and they might not even really get started in any manner of seriousness, he's going to,
06:44in my opinion, he's going to continue to pursue this war.
06:47He understands the threat of Iran.
06:49He's not going to walk away from it.
06:50I think the Iranian regime is underestimating his conviction.
06:54And I think they should be prepared for more attacks, more undermining of the regime, more decimation of their military,
07:03and, of course, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
07:05Now, the Europeans and others should also realize that while President Trump would appreciate their help and it would be
07:11helpful to have their help, he's prepared to do it alone.
07:13And I think the Europeans and others who don't step up, who won't step up to the plate to protect
07:18the Middle East allies and, really, the world and oil shipments and everything else that goes through the Strait, should
07:23be prepared that he has a long memory.
07:25And they're going to pay the price for that.
07:28So you are saying that those who are not standing with Washington, D.C. in this war will be paying
07:33a price for it?
07:35Yeah, well, they're going to pay the price regardless if Washington doesn't open the Strait of Hormuz.
07:41They should be grateful that Washington, that President Trump, is taking the bull by the horns and trying to open
07:45the Strait of Hormuz.
07:46And they should stand up and do what they have to do to help the world.
07:50With Iranian strikes hitting U.S. bases and rising military claims and counterclaims, how close are we to a direct,
08:00sustained U.S.-Iran conflict?
08:04I think we're in that now.
08:06I think that the war is quite serious.
08:07I think that the U.S., together with Israel, has done a remarkable job at reducing the threat from Iran.
08:13But there's a lot more work to do.
08:14So I think there would be a sustained conflict.
08:17But a sustained conflict doesn't mean an endless war.
08:19It doesn't mean a forever war.
08:21It doesn't mean a war that lasts beyond 6, 8, 12 weeks.
08:24I don't know what the time frame might be.
08:26But there's still a lot of work to do.
08:28And I think President Trump is ready to do it.
08:30Jason, there are reports that are suggesting that perhaps U.S. and Israel may have different endgames in this war.
08:39I think Israel's endgame might be further than President Trump's endgame.
08:43Of course, Israel would prefer that the regime be completely gone.
08:46I'm not sure that their goal is regime change.
08:49But certainly it's their strong preference.
08:51But you see, even from our Middle East allies, there was a great Wall Street Journal opinion written by the
08:56Emirati ambassador to the United States who said that at the end of the day, while they may not have
09:02wanted this war to start, now that it's there, the Iranians have to be neutralized.
09:07They cannot be a threat to the region.
09:09That's essentially regime change.
09:11It's either regime change in terms of who the leaders are, or it's a complete change of the DNA psychology
09:16that the leaders have.
09:17So one way or the other way, are they committed to do it?
09:22How long are they going to do it for?
09:23And will the Iranian regime come to the table in a realistic way, or do they want to just continue
09:29to be punished?
09:31Reports are that U.S. may divert Ukraine aid to West Asia.
09:37Does this indicate a larger strategic pivot?
09:40And what message does that send to both allies and adversaries?
09:46Well, I think President Trump has been clear.
09:48While he feels for the Ukrainian people, he wants to help Ukraine, he largely sees this as a European responsibility.
09:53And the Europeans have relied too much on the United States for aid.
09:57So I think his diversion of that aid elsewhere is just a continuing thought process that he's had.
10:03Once again, the European allies don't put up enough money to defend the continent.
10:07They don't take on the responsibility that they're supposed to take on.
10:11And he's saying, listen, enough. Stop relying on America. Go do your job.
10:17OK, so there will be negotiations as hard as that.
10:21Is that what you're indicating, Jason?
10:23That these messaging is directly for the European allies and all those who may not be standing with Donald Trump?
10:30And, you know, there have been enough and more nations like Spain, for example?
10:35Yeah, I don't think these are hard negotiations.
10:38I think what President Trump's messaging is, is logic.
10:41It's realistic.
10:42It's fairness.
10:43Essentially, his philosophy, in my opinion, is grounded in fairness.
10:47You have a continent to watch.
10:49You have plenty of money.
10:50You're rich countries, most of you.
10:52Do your job.
10:53Protect your own country.
10:54The United States could be there if you fail, if you need help, if you're having a lot of trouble.
10:58But don't look to the United States taxpayer for the money to conduct the protection that's necessary for Europe.
11:04Look to your own taxpayer first.
11:07OK, given the combination of military pressure and talk of a deal, are we moving towards forced negotiations?
11:15Or is this a cycle that risks spiraling beyond control?
11:21I don't think it'll spiral beyond control, because in the end, we're only dealing with one nation, which is the
11:26Iranian nation, the regime of Iran.
11:29I don't foresee this spiraling into other things.
11:31What I do hope happens is I hope others join in a serious way, the United States and Israel, in
11:37trying to remove this threat.
11:38But I don't see other countries coming to the aid of the Iranian regime.
11:43Now, you mentioned Spain in your earlier question.
11:45Spain is essentially, at least in words, voting for the terrorists, the bloodthirsty Iranian regime.
11:51That's a bit shocking for a European country.
11:53And I think it's surprising that Spain would want to do that.
11:57OK, just look at the words of President Trump and help us understand where it's all heading.
12:02One view is that President Trump has been constantly shifting the goalpost, that the end game of the Washington is
12:10not clear what the president has on his mind.
12:13And he's someone who is thriving on unpredictability.
12:18Well, he definitely thrives on unpredictability.
12:21He also thrives on not sharing his plans with the press or allies, for that matter, because that only undermines
12:27the potential success of the deal.
12:29But I don't think it's fair.
12:31And a lot of the media does this, characterizes it as he's not sharing his goals.
12:35His goals are quite clear.
12:36No nuclear threat ever.
12:38No more missile threat.
12:40No more drones.
12:41No more blocking of the Strait of Hormuz.
12:43Those are clear goals.
12:45And he hopes to achieve them, either through diplomacy, if real diplomacy can actually happen, or through war, if necessary.
12:54But, Jason, during the initial days, he didn't speak about the regime change.
12:58Now he's speaking about it openly.
13:01I don't think he—in my understanding, I don't think he's calling for a regime change.
13:05I think, in his mind, it would be great if this theocratic, bloodthirsty regime gets toppled.
13:11But regime change has to come from the people of Iran.
13:13The United States has never had success with regime changes, except potentially Venezuela, if you want to call it that.
13:19But he firmly believes that it's for the people of Iran to decide who their leaders should be.
13:24He recognizes the danger that the people of Iran are in.
13:27He doesn't want them to go out into the streets and get mowed down.
13:30I think those were his words yesterday, or at least that's what was reported in the media.
13:34But he's not looking for regime change.
13:37If it happens, I think, ultimately, the Iranian people and the world would be better off.
13:41But I don't think regime change is a stated goal of the Trump administration.
13:45All right, Jason.
13:46Really appreciate your time.
13:47Thank you for joining us.
13:49Thank you for having me.
13:51As the war enters its fourth week, the Strait of Hormuz remains under sustained threat.
13:57Shipping and insurance costs are rising, and oil markets are pricing in prolonged disruption with global ripple effects.
14:05Joining me now is Steve Hankey, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University.
14:13He's someone known for his sharp views on inflation, currency stability, and global crisis.
14:19Professor Hankey, really appreciate your time here on India Today.
14:23If the Hormuz disruption continues, as it effectively is right now, what oil price range are we realistically heading towards?
14:35Are we looking at a sustained move beyond $100?
14:42Yes.
14:46We are.
14:48Are we looking at a significant price range?
14:50We are.
14:50I haven't done any sharp pencil work on that.
14:53But I'm long oil.
14:55It's going up.
14:57That means you don't want to be short oil.
15:00You want to be long oil.
15:01You want to own oil, because it will go up in price.
15:06The Iranians do control the Strait of Hormuz, and I think they will continue to control it.
15:13And therefore, we know the price is going up.
15:17That's the main thing.
15:18The exact range, it's hard to tell.
15:21But we just know it's going up.
15:25Okay.
15:26Shipping and insurance costs are also climbing sharply in the Gulf.
15:31How quickly do these elevated logistics costs feed into global inflation?
15:40Well, they don't really feed into inflation, but they do feed into the relative price increases
15:52of oil and everything related to oil, chemicals, fertilizers, all the derivatives from crude
16:01oil that are produced when crude oil is refined will go up in price relative to everything
16:08else.
16:08But that doesn't mean that we'll have overall inflation going up.
16:12And let me give you the example that's the key one to understand.
16:16In the 1970s, we had the 1973 Yom Kippur War, and the oil crisis related to that pushed the
16:26price of oil way up.
16:29And in Japan, of course, they import almost 100 percent of their oil.
16:34They don't produce any oil.
16:36And what happened?
16:38The Bank of Japan loosened the money supply to accommodate the price increase in oil in
16:451973, and Japan got inflation.
16:48Now, they got inflation not because the oil price went up relative to everything else.
16:54They got it because the Bank of Japan loosened up and increased the money supply.
16:59In 1979, the Bank of Japan did not do that, because in 1974, the Bank of Japan said, we made
17:09a mistake.
17:10We should not have increased the money supply with the crisis in 1973.
17:15And in 1979, as a result of that, they didn't increase the money supply.
17:22And inflation actually was lower in 1979 than it was in 1978 in Japan.
17:31So it's the money supply.
17:33If the Reserve Bank of India does not accelerate the money supply, the price of oil and oil products will
17:44go up in India, but other things will go down.
17:47And the overall average price level, the consumer price level, will remain about the same as it is right now.
17:55OK. But what about the Middle East economies?
17:59Because what appears is that there is a paradox.
18:03A higher oil prices boost revenues, but instability threatens investment and trade.
18:12Well, that is true.
18:14But let's look at this in detail.
18:17What's going on and what hasn't been reported?
18:19My sources in Iran tell me what's really going on.
18:24Since the war started, now we're into the fourth week, the exports of oil from Iran have actually increased.
18:32The price that the Iranians are receiving for the oil is much higher.
18:38The discounts on Iranian oil are lower.
18:41And as a result, the revenue coming into Iran is actually going up.
18:47So that explains why the currency, the Iranian real, is actually appreciated against the U.S. dollar by 6 percent.
18:58Most people don't know this.
19:00Since the war started, the currency in Iran has actually gotten stronger.
19:06And stronger because the oil revenue is much greater than it was for Iran before the war commenced.
19:16Now, the other countries in the Gulf, that's a different story.
19:21Kuwait, down.
19:23Saudi Arabia, down.
19:25United Arab Emirates, down.
19:28Qatar, down.
19:30Because the strait is essentially closed to them.
19:35By the way, it isn't completely closed to India.
19:39Where is the Iranian oil going?
19:43Two big tankers went out of the Gulf from Iran and they went to India.
19:52So, when you look at the Gulf sovereign wealth funds, they have been major global investors.
19:59If this conflict actually drags on, Professor Anki, do you see capital being pulled back home?
20:06And what would that mean for global liquidity and emerging markets?
20:13Well, it means that there's, obviously, if that would happen, which it might,
20:19they might not pull back, but they will stop recycling petrodollars
20:25because they're not earning any petrodollars, so there's nothing to recycle.
20:31And if that occurs, of course, you do have a liquidity problem, a credit problem.
20:39And that's why, in fact, some central banks are, actually, the central bank in Poland actually sold some gold
20:49because it needed liquidity.
20:53So, this is interrupting not only, you're making an important point here,
20:59it's interrupting the flow of crude oil.
21:02But it's also interrupting the flow of capital and the petrodollar recycling that occurs in the Gulf
21:11because those petrodollars aren't coming into the Gulf and they won't be recycled and come out.
21:18And if they don't come out, that means you do have the potential for a liquidity squeeze.
21:25So, what happens to the petrodollar now?
21:29Well, the petrodollars don't exist.
21:34There's no money coming.
21:36If Kuwait isn't selling any oil and Qatar isn't selling any gas,
21:42there's no dollars coming in, so there's no new dollars going out.
21:48The whole cycle gets interrupted and blocked.
21:53And it's the same thing in the physical market.
21:59The key thing is the physical market for oil.
22:03And one reason, by the way, that it will be going up, back to your first question,
22:08the physical market for oil, the price is much higher than it is in the paper market, the futures market.
22:17And I think what's going to happen is that the futures market, the paper market,
22:23that price will go up, go up, up to match the physical price because the physical price for oil in
22:33India right now
22:35and in Southeast Asia in general, it's higher than the paper price.
22:42All right.
22:43Professor Steve Hanke, I really appreciate your time.
22:46Thank you for joining us.
22:48Well, thank you for inviting me.
22:50Good to be with you.
22:53That's all from me on this edition of the news track.
22:55I'll be seeing you tomorrow.
22:56Thanks so much for watching.
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