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The latest edition of Statecraft covers major geopolitical shifts as US President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. The visit, occurring amid the ongoing West Asia conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade, focusses on trade, tariffs, and the Iran war.
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00:20Hello and welcome, you're watching Statecraft with me Geeta Mohan.
00:24How can a rising power block survive when its own members are pulling in opposite directions?
00:30And while the world watches massiles, sanctions and diplomatic chaos, is another country quietly
00:35becoming the one place nobody can afford to ignore?
00:39Tonight, two stories that expose where power is really shifting.
00:43President Donald Trump, the man who spent years slapping tariffs on China and calling
00:47Beijing America's biggest threat, has now landed in Xi Jinping's backyard looking for
00:52deals.
00:53And reports say Vladimir Putin could walk into Beijing right after him.
00:57The American president and the Russian president, back to back, not for a summit, but for China.
01:04And then, shift to New Delhi, where BRICS is discovering that expanding power blocks is easier than holding
01:10them together.
01:11Iran wants condemnation, Gulf states want coercion, India wants unity.
01:16But unity is hard when your members stand on opposite sides of a conflict.
01:21One story about a country pulling the world toward itself.
01:25The other about a block being pulled apart from within.
01:28All this and more, but first up, the headlines.
01:33US President Donald Trump lands in Beijing, marking his first visit to China since the beginning
01:38of the West Asia war.
01:39Top officials from the Trump team, along with business honchos like Elon Musk, Tim Cook and
01:44Jensen Huang, are part of the delegation.
01:46Trump and Xi are likely to discuss Iran war, blockade of Strait of Hormuz, along with topics
01:51on trade and tariffs.
01:54Senators grilled FBI director Kash Patel at a congressional subcommittee hearing alleging
01:59Patel of drinking problem that could pose a threat to national security and Patel's defamation
02:04lawsuit against the Atlantic and its reporter Sarah Fitzpatrick over the article.
02:10UK head secretary West Streeting is expected to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership.
02:15The Starmer spokesperson said the PM has full confidence in Streeting after both of them held
02:20a 17-minute meeting at 10 Downing Street.
02:22This also comes as King Charles has unveiled government's planned new laws at state opening
02:28of parliament.
02:29As U.S.-Iran war seems to prolong with no mutual agreement reached between both the countries,
02:34Iran's semi-official Fast News Agency reported that Tehran has set out five conditions for entering
02:40a new round of negotiations with the United States of America.
02:43Iran is demanding an end to all fronts of war, especially in Lebanon, the lifting of sanctions,
02:49sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, compensation for war damages and recognition
02:54of Iran's authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
02:58This comes as Trump embarks on an important visit to China, the first since the West Asia
03:03war started.
03:04The demands also come after Trump said earlier that Iranian response to the U.S.'s peace
03:09proposal is totally unacceptable.
03:12Trump's visit to China from May 15th to the 17th of May is also crucial following U.S.'s
03:18continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
03:20Earlier, Trump told reporters that he will have a long talk with his Chinese counterpart,
03:25President Xi Jinping, about the war in Iran during his visit, though he does not think he
03:30will need Xi's help in resolving the West Asia crisis.
03:33He also stressed that the U.S. had Iran very much under control.
03:38The blockade continues to push the oil prices, with Brent crude climbing to $107.77 a barrel.
03:45According to Pentagon, the cost of the U.S. around war, too, has risen to nearly $29 billion,
03:53an estimate that is higher than the $25 billion figure the Pentagon had provided to Congress
03:59two weeks ago.
04:01China has always stressed that Iran's sovereignty and territorial integrity needs to be respected.
04:07I think, number one, we're going to have a long talk about it.
04:11I think he's been relatively good, to be honest with you.
04:15You look at the blockade, no problems.
04:18They get a lot of their oil from that area.
04:20We've had no problem.
04:21And he's been a friend of mine.
04:23He's been somebody that we get along with.
04:26And I think you're going to see that good things are going to happen.
04:30This is going to be a very exciting trip.
04:31A lot of good things are going to happen.
04:33Mr. President.
04:34Do you think he needs to intervene at all with the Iranians?
04:37I don't think he does, no.
04:37Do you think he can help in any way?
04:39No, I don't think we need any help with Iran.
04:41We'll win it one way or the other.
04:43We'll win it peacefully or otherwise.
04:46Their Navy's gone.
04:48Their Air Force is gone.
04:49Every single element of their war machine is gone.
04:54They've killed a lot of people.
04:55They've killed 42,000 people at least over the last month and a half.
05:01We're going to, we win.
05:03Trump just touched down in Beijing.
05:05The man who spent years calling China the world's biggest trade cheat,
05:10tariff after tariff, ban after ban,
05:12flew straight into Xi Jinping's living room.
05:14And here's the kicker.
05:17Reports say Putin might show up in China right after Trump leaves.
05:21The American president and the Russian president, back to back,
05:26both headed to Beijing in the same month.
05:29Not for a multilateral summit.
05:31Not for a group photo.
05:32Bilateral visits, one after the other.
05:35The last time something like this happened was never outside of group events.
05:40So what exactly is China cooking here?
05:42And is Beijing quietly becoming the most important address on the planet?
05:47Trump didn't fly to Beijing for dumplings.
05:50He came for a deal.
05:52Trade, tariffs, technology, the whole package.
05:56The U.S.-China relationship has been a slow motion car crash for years.
06:01Tariffs piled on tariffs, bans on Chinese tech, Chinese bans right back.
06:06But both sides got tired.
06:08Markets hated it.
06:10Businesses hated it.
06:11And Trump, deal maker that he is, decided sitting across from Xi Jinping,
06:17beat bleeding out in a trade war.
06:19Expect headline agreements, big numbers, agricultural purchases, tariff relief.
06:24Basically, a handshake both sides wave at their home crowds and call a win.
06:30Putin's trip is a different thing entirely.
06:33China and Russia's partnership runs deep.
06:35They hold bilateral meetings annually.
06:37China even stuck by Russia's side in 2022 when Russia's war with Ukraine started
06:42and it was economically isolated, sanctioned into a corner and desperate for a partner.
06:48China didn't flinch.
06:50Beijing called the relationship rock solid and it stayed that way.
06:53So Putin's visit isn't about starting something new.
06:56It's about cementing what already exists.
07:00Energy deals, military technical cooperation, the whole Eurasian partnership.
07:05Putin shows up, gets reassurance that China hasn't sold him out to Washington
07:09and flies home happy.
07:12Simple.
07:13Why do both America and Russia need to have good relations with China right now?
07:17Because the world still runs through Beijing.
07:20That's why.
07:21America needs Chinese markets, its manufacturing base, stability in global supply chains.
07:27Russia needs China's economy just to survive sanctions.
07:30Think of China as the one working socket in the room.
07:34And both America and Russia desperately need to plug in.
07:38Neither can afford to lose access.
07:40That's not weakness in China's part.
07:42That is leverage.
07:44Europe spent years telling China to behave.
07:47Lectured Beijing on values, democracy, Ukraine, human rights, the whole sermon.
07:52Then the war hit.
07:54Supply chains snapped.
07:55Energy bills went through the roof.
07:58And suddenly, every major European leader packed a bag and flew to Beijing with a smile and a trade proposal.
08:05Europe got a reality check.
08:07The war in Ukraine broke supply chains.
08:10Energy prices exploded.
08:11And Europe suddenly realized it had put too many eggs in too few baskets.
08:16So what happened?
08:18Over the last year, a parade of European leaders, France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, all marched to
08:27Beijing.
08:28Not because they love everything China does, but because they need trade, green technology, and critical raw materials that China
08:36controls.
08:37They call China a partner, competitor, and systemic rival.
08:42All three in the same breath.
08:44That's not a strategy.
08:46That's a panic dressed up in diplomatic language.
08:48China didn't just survive the supply chain chaos of the last few years.
08:53It held the keys to fixing it.
08:56Rare earths, green technology, manufacturing capacity.
09:00Europe came to Beijing specifically asking for faster access to critical materials.
09:05You don't travel to someone's house to ask for supplies if they're irrelevant.
09:10China is not irrelevant.
09:12India watches this nervously.
09:14If Beijing gets closer to Washington, the pressure on India's border calculates differently.
09:21And everyone quietly knows it.
09:23The US tried decoupling.
09:25Europe tried de-risking.
09:26Both ended up back in Beijing's office asking for deals.
09:30The global economy without China is like a smartphone without a battery.
09:34Technically still a device, completely useless in practice.
09:39Trump, Putin, a full year of European heads of state.
09:42All in Beijing.
09:44All within months of each other.
09:45Xi Jinping didn't chase any of them.
09:48They came to him.
09:49China's own analysts call it open and inclusive diplomacy.
09:53Critics call it cold, calculated positioning.
09:56Call it whatever you want.
09:58The result stays the same.
10:00The world's two most powerful men flew to the same city,
10:03one after the other, and Beijing didn't even blink.
10:07That's not a coincidence.
10:08That is the new center of gravity.
10:12India's military aviation ambitions may be on the verge of a defining breakthrough.
10:16Visuals from Gujarat suggest the first privately manufactured military aircraft in India,
10:22the Airbus C-295, is nearing rollout from the Tata Airbus facility in Varodhra.
10:28If officially confirmed, this could mark a massive milestone for India's defense manufacturing and self-reliance push.
10:35Take a look at this report.
10:43India's military aviation ambitions may be approaching a historic breakthrough.
10:48Visuals emerging from Gujarat suggest that the first domestically assembled Airbus C-295 transport aircraft is now nearing rollout from
10:57the Tata Airbus facility in Varodhra.
10:59If confirmed officially, this would mark the first time a military aircraft is being manufactured in India by a private
11:06sector company,
11:07a major milestone for the government's Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat initiatives.
11:12The aircraft seen inside the Tata Advanced Systems facility appeared almost complete, signalling that assembly work may now be entering
11:21the final testing and rollout phase.
11:23External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had earlier indicated that the first Made in India C-295 would rollout before September
11:312026.
11:33The Vadodhra final assembly line was jointly inaugurated in 2024 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro
11:40Sanchez,
11:41and represents a growing India-Spain defense partnership.
11:44The Airbus C-295 is a medium tactical transport aircraft designed for troop movement, cargo transport, medical evacuation and special
11:53military operations.
11:54With its short takeoff and landing capability, the aircraft can operate from rugged and semi-prepared airstrips,
12:02making it ideal for Indian conditions including mountainous regions and remote forward bases.
12:07The aircraft can carry over 9,000 kilograms of payload and transport up to 71 troops.
12:13It will replace the Indian Air Force's aging Avro fleet and could eventually support the replacement of parts of the
12:19AN-32 fleet as well.
12:21India signed the 56 aircraft deal with Airbus in 2021.
12:25While the first 16 aircraft were delivered directly from Spain, the remaining 40 are being assembled in India through the
12:32Tata Airbus partnership.
12:33The project has also created a massive domestic aerospace ecosystem.
12:37More than 13,000 aircraft parts and over 4,000 sub-assembles are now being produced within India, involving dozens
12:44of Indian companies and MSMEs.
12:47Indigenous content is expected to rise to nearly 75% in future batches.
12:51The Navy and Coast Guard have also placed additional orders for maritime surveillance versions of the aircraft, expanding the platform's
12:58role beyond the Air Force.
12:59Defence experts now see the C-295 programme as more than just an aircraft acquisition.
13:05It is increasingly being viewed as a turning point in India's defence manufacturing journey, one that could reshape the country's
13:11aerospace industry for decades to come.
13:18The Iran conflict is now doing something BRICS has long tried to avoid.
13:23It is forcing a choice, not between economics and politics, but between competing geopolitical loyalties inside the same bloc.
13:32And at the centre of this pressure test is the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi.
13:37A gathering meant to project unity is instead exposing deep fractures, especially over one of the world's most volatile conflicts.
13:45Let's begin with what is actually unfolding in New Delhi.
13:49A two-day BRICS foreign ministers meeting, high level, high stakes.
13:53Representatives from Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and the new expanded members including Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia and the
14:03United Arab Emirates.
14:04On paper, this is a platform for global South cooperation.
14:08In reality, it is becoming a diplomatic stress test.
14:12Because the Iran conflict is not just on the agenda, it is dominating it.
14:18Tehran has arrived with a clear demand, a unified BRICS statement.
14:22One that condemns the United States and Israel's actions in the Gulf conflict.
14:27For Iran, this is not symbolic.
14:29It is strategic.
14:31It is about breaking diplomatic isolation and using BRICS as a political amplifier.
14:37Iran's foreign minister, Sayyid Abbas Araqchi, is expected to personally push this position inside closed-door meetings.
14:44Tehran sees BRICS as an alternative power center to Western-led institutions.
14:48A platform where emerging economies can collectively challenge global narratives.
14:54But the problem is simple.
14:56BRICS is no longer a uniform block.
14:59It is a coalition of contradictions.
15:02Because the biggest block lines are not external.
15:06They are internal.
15:07And they are widening in real time.
15:09Iran is pushing for condemnation.
15:11But the UAE, another BRICS member, is aligned on the opposite side of the regional divide.
15:17That alone makes consensus extremely difficult.
15:20Because within the same room sit countries with opposing security alignments in the Gulf.
15:25And that is the core challenge for India's chair.
15:28New Delhi wants a joint statement, a signal of unity.
15:32But Indian officials have already acknowledged the difficulty of that goal.
15:36Because when member states are directly or indirectly involved in the conflict,
15:40neutrality becomes almost impossible to draft into language.
15:44The tension has reportedly intensified after military strikes and retaliatory actions involving multiple Gulf-linked actors and Iran.
15:53Even without naming specifics, the diplomatic atmosphere is already charged.
15:58Every word in a draft statement becomes a negotiation.
16:02Every sentence becomes a compromise.
16:05And every compromise risks alienating one side or another.
16:10Russia is present too, and visibly so.
16:13Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is attending in person.
16:15Moscow continues to position BRICS as a pillar of multipolar diplomacy, especially as it remains under Western sanctions.
16:23For Russia, this meeting is another opportunity to strengthen non-Western coordination and deepen political alignment with the bloc.
16:32But China's absence from its top diplomatic seat changes the dynamic.
16:37Foreign Minister Wang Yi is not attending, officially due to scheduling conflicts linked to US President Donald Trump's visit to
16:44Beijing.
16:45Instead, China is represented by its ambassador.
16:48A lower-level presence, and in diplomacy, presence matters almost as much as position.
16:55Beijing's public stance on the Iran conflict has remained carefully neutral.
16:59It maintains relations with Iran.
17:01It also maintains strong ties with Gulf and Arab states.
17:04That balancing act has become a signature of Chinese diplomacy in the Middle East.
17:09But without top-level participation in Delhi, China's ability to shape consensus inside BRICS is somewhat diluted.
17:18And that matters because BRICS unity is already under strain.
17:22The bloc has expanded rapidly.
17:24More members, more interests, more contradictions.
17:27What was once an economic grouping is now attempting to behave like a geopolitical platform.
17:32And the Iran conflict is exposing how difficult that transition really is.
17:38At the same time, energy is quietly driving urgency behind the scenes.
17:42Oil markets remain sensitive to every escalation in the Gulf or the Middle East.
17:47For BRICS economies like India, Egypt and Indonesia, rising prices translate directly into inflation pressure.
17:55Fuel costs, transport costs, food prices, the impact is immediate and domestic.
18:02Several BRICS members have already introduced emergency economic measures to soften the blow.
18:07Subsidies, price controls, strategic reserves.
18:10But these are short-term fixes.
18:13The larger concern is stability.
18:15Because sustained conflict in the Gulf means sustained economic vulnerability for much of Global South.
18:23Which is why, beneath the political disagreements, there is still one shared interest – de-escalation.
18:30Even countries divided on the Iran conflict understand the economic cost of prolonged instability.
18:35That is why, there is still cautious hope in New Delhi that a joint declaration, even a watered-down one,
18:42might still be possible.
18:44India's role in all of this is especially delicate.
18:47As chair of BRICS in 2026, New Delhi is trying to position itself as a bridge between Iran and the
18:54Gulf states.
18:55Between Russia and the West.
18:56Between competing visions of global order.
18:59But bridge-building only works when both sides are willing to meet in the middle.
19:04India is also managing its own strategic balancing act.
19:08Strong ties with Gulf economies.
19:10Long-standing engagement with Iran.
19:12Deep partnerships with Western powers.
19:15And a leading role inside BRICS.
19:17Every position India takes is being read in multiple capitals simultaneously.
19:23Which makes neutrality not just a choice, but a calculation.
19:28So is BRICS evolving into a genuine geopolitical counterweight capable of coordinated positions on global conflicts?
19:35Or is it becoming something else entirely?
19:37A forum where divisions are aired, but not resolved.
19:41Because the Iran conflict has done more than just dominate an agenda.
19:46It has revealed a structural reality.
19:49BRICS is expanding faster than its consensus mechanisms can keep up.
19:53And when crises like this emerge, the gaps between members become impossible to ignore.
20:00So as ministers continue negotiations in New Delhi, one question hangs over the room.
20:04Can a block built on the idea of unity and diversity survive when diversity becomes division?
20:11Or is this Iran moment simply the clearest signal yet that BRICS, as a unified political voice, is still a
20:19work in progress, not a finished project?
20:23That's all in this edition of Statecraft.
20:25But before we go, here's something interesting.
20:27As Donald Trump headed to Beijing for a high-stakes China visit, it wasn't trade or tariffs grabbing attention online.
20:33It was Marco Rubio's tracksuit.
20:35The U.S. Secretary of State appeared aboard Air Force One wearing the same grey Nike outfit linked to the
20:41viral Maduro arrest look.
20:43Triggering a frenzy across Chinese social media and sparking memes, mockery and speculation.
20:49Diplomacy may be serious business, but in 2026, sometimes the internet notices the outfit before the policy.
20:56Take a look, enjoy, goodbye and take care.
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