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US President Donald Trump on Tuesday agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before the deadline for Iran was to expire, but the tensions in the region still continue.
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00:00I want to widen the debate, but before that, the unanswered questions.
00:03Will Iranian forces now control the Strait of Hormuz?
00:07Is Israel completely on board with this ceasefire?
00:11Does the truce cover Hezbollah and Israeli forces in Lebanon?
00:14What happens to 60% enriched uranium in Iran?
00:18What are really the points that have been agreed by U.S. and Iran for talks?
00:22Who in Iran will enforce the truce?
00:24And did Pakistan really play that key role in mediation, as it claims?
00:30That's the questions I want to raise on the show today.
00:33Joining me now, our special guest, KC Singh, former Indian ambassador, joins me.
00:38Michael Kugelman, senior fellow Asia-Pacific Foundation and an expert on South Asia.
00:43Sayyid Zameer Abbas Jafri is a professor at the Al-Mustafa International University in Iran.
00:49And Ron Malka is former director general of Ministry of Economy and Industry
00:53and former ambassador of Israel to India.
00:55I appreciate all my guests joining me.
00:57I want to come to you, Ron Malka, first.
00:59You might have heard what the former NATO commander says,
01:01that this has been a strategic disaster, the worst, he says, since Vietnam.
01:06Do you agree with that?
01:07Or do you believe that Israel has gained from this war?
01:11And do you believe Israel will continue to pursue it independent of what Washington decides?
01:19Good evening. Thank you for inviting me.
01:21First, Israel went for a no-choice war.
01:26Israel wants to defend itself.
01:28Israel, from the first beginning, had nothing to do with Iran.
01:33We mean our own business and like we share the same values like India and like the free world.
01:39Live and let others live and thrive.
01:43Since its inception, this regime in Iran has declared publicly that their main goal is total annihilation of Israel.
01:53They even put a clock in the middle of Iran counting down the time of the existence of Israel.
01:58We tried all means, all peaceful means to come to an understanding, but this radical, fanatic regime was not there
02:08to listen or even to negotiate.
02:10So we waited until the last moment before they put their hands on a mass destruction weapon.
02:15And we had to defend ourselves and to prevent them having this mass destruction.
02:21So is it still, if I may interrupt, is it still a no-choice war?
02:24Because now we have Israel pounding Hezbollah, carrying on its attacks in Lebanon.
02:30Is it still a no-choice war?
02:32Because you've got, you're saying it's a no-choice war, and there we have America and Iran about to start
02:38negotiations in two days.
02:41Yes, so still also is, I should remind you and the audience that who started the war in Lebanon was
02:47Hezbollah.
02:47We asked them not to.
02:49We asked them not to.
02:50To stay aside, but they started shooting missiles on our civilians, on our cities.
02:55Every other country will do the same like we do, defend its citizens from this crucial attack against civilians.
03:02So you will carry on this war?
03:04You will carry on the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon?
03:07Whatever it takes to disarm Hezbollah and let the Lebanese people decide about their own future.
03:15The Lebanese people are a captive of this Hezbollah, which is a proxy of Iran.
03:21Who is dominating Lebanon now is Iran, through Hezbollah.
03:25Okay.
03:25We should understand that.
03:27Okay.
03:27So unless this is changed, we are under the same threat of annihilating Israel.
03:32So we have to defend ourselves.
03:33It's still a defense, and it's always been a war of defense, and now no-choice war, yes.
03:38A no-choice war.
03:40Michael Kugelman, which side do you stand on?
03:44Do you believe that this fragile peace will hold, given what you're just hearing from my Israeli guest?
03:49Do you believe that we now have, in a way, a bizarre situation where negotiations will take place in Islamabad,
03:57even as the war now finds a new front in southern Lebanon?
04:04Well, I mean, you put it right, Rajdeep.
04:07This is a very fragile peace.
04:09And in terms of what side I'm on, I'm on the side of peace.
04:12And so I think it's a very good thing that we have this two-week truce.
04:16I do hope that there will be some negotiation toward a final peace.
04:21But, you know, for the reasons you note, because it's going to be very difficult to get there,
04:25and there have already been reports of violations of the truce.
04:30And also, you know, setting aside the issue of Israel, if you look at the U.S. and Iran, there
04:34is still so much mistrust.
04:36The trust gap between the mistrust gap, should I say, when it comes to the U.S. and Iran is
04:41so deep that if somehow Pakistan manages to get American and Iranian officials to Islamabad
04:47to sit at a table together and try to reach a formal peace, that would be very difficult.
04:55It's going to be a very heavy lift.
04:58My sense is that the two sides are still quite far apart on a lot of issues, even though the
05:03space has been reduced since each side first came out with its 15-point proposal.
05:07But, yeah, to answer your question, it's going to be a very difficult – it's going to be very difficult
05:11to keep this truce in place
05:13and get it to be something more – something more permanent than this two weeks we're going to have over
05:18– that's coming now.
05:19So what, according to you, Michael Kugelman, could lead to a breakdown?
05:23What is that sticking point?
05:24Is it nuclear enrichment?
05:26What is the sticking point, in your view, that could once again get the two sides back to warring, in
05:33a way?
05:34Well, I mean, it's the fact that each side, the American side and the Iranian side, continue to be far
05:40apart on so much,
05:42particularly when it comes to the U.S. desire for Iran's nuclear program to be disassembled.
05:50And when it comes to issues related to the Strait of Hormuz, there's still a lot of – I'd say
05:54a lot of open space there in terms of coming together on that.
05:58So, you know, it's hard to identify any one issue.
06:02It's more so, I think, not just an issue with specific negotiating points, but also perceptions and how each side
06:10feels about the other.
06:11I mean, as you know, the U.S.-Iran relationship, despite some interesting periods of cooperation,
06:17such as some counterterrorism cooperation after 9-11 when it came to al-Qaeda,
06:21al-Qaeda, this has been a very hostile relationship for so long.
06:25So, again, if the Pakistanis manage to bring the two sides together with the deal, that will be quite a
06:31shocker, in my view.
06:32But let's hope it happens for the sake of peace.
06:34So you still will be astounded if actually the deal happens.
06:38Abbas Jafri, has Iran – is Iran very clear as to where it stands on this peace plan?
06:48Or is Iran also buying time?
06:50There is so much of trust deficit, as Michael Kugelman puts it.
06:54Is Iran willing to talk across the table with the Americans in Islamabad?
07:01Thank you very much, Mr. Sardesai, for having me on the show.
07:05To start with, Iran has – the Security Council has released the statement.
07:10They clearly mentioned that America had sent many proposals and we rejected all of them.
07:18And then, finally, we sent a 10-point proposal to America and America finally accepted it.
07:24This was three days ago when there was an explanation that we have sent a 10-point proposal.
07:30And Donald Trump, in his tweet, he clearly – or in his post, he clearly said that the 10-point
07:36proposal from Iran is workable and we can discuss on that particular topic.
07:41So, are you saying Iranians are ready to sit across a table with Americans irrespective of Israel pounding Hezbollah?
07:50Because now, Iran is claiming that if the pounding of – if Israel continues to target Hezbollah in Lebanon, they
07:58will once again close the Strait of Hormuz?
08:04Amongst those 10-point, one of those points is a complete halt to the war in the region and especially
08:12in Lebanon.
08:12This is one of the points in those 10-point which Iran has clearly sent to –
08:19Lebanon is included.
08:20And Donald Trump himself has posted.
08:22The word – whether Lebanon is –
08:24Yes, definitely. It is one of those.
08:25You're claiming Lebanon is one of the 10-points?
08:30Yes, it is in the – it is written – this is about the Security Council of Iran, which has
08:35released an official statement in which they have said the proposal,
08:3910-point proposal that we have sent states that the entire war in the region needs to stop, especially Lebanon.
08:48This is what is mentioned in the 10-point plan.
08:50And what Israel is doing right now, it's playing – it's playing the dirty game and trying to end the
08:57ceasefire and trying to ensure that this war doesn't end and the peace doesn't exist,
09:02which Israel is always used to creating wars and creating problems within this region.
09:07So that is – that is what is very clear to everyone.
09:10Okay.
09:11So you're claiming that the peace talks are being derailed by Israel.
09:15I'll come to my Israeli guests in a moment again.
09:17But Casey Singh, how are you seeing it?
09:19You're already seeing even on this program conflicting views being expressed.
09:24Do you believe this fragile peace will actually hold or are the two sides simply buying time?
09:32No, they're not buying time.
09:34I think there is a degree of exhaustion on the American side.
09:38Public opinion has shifted.
09:40President Trump's MAGA base is divided.
09:44Midterms are approaching.
09:46So he can see his popularity levels have fallen.
09:49This is not a popular war in the U.S.
09:52So he knows it and he can't beyond a stage sustain it.
09:56There's a lot of political damage at home.
09:59His relationship with Europe is affected.
10:01Many European countries said, we'll not let American military planes land in their countries.
10:08Italy was one of them.
10:09Spain was another one.
10:10So it's dividing NATO.
10:12So there's a division, strategic division, which has taken place all over.
10:16And it's also divided the GCC.
10:19Now you see today, even though Pakistan has the support of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey,
10:25but you find UAE is isolated.
10:28UAE is today, their bombers were bombing an island, Iranian island, and the Iranians then
10:33struck back.
10:34So GCC itself is divided.
10:37Qatar has said it's asked the Americans to remove their base.
10:40We don't want any soldiers there.
10:42Now that is one of the points which has not been mentioned, which Iran was insisting on,
10:47that America should remove all their military bases from the region.
10:51But essentially, it's three or four points.
10:54Civil nuclear deal, I think Iran would insist, like it was in the JCPO, Joint Comprehensive
11:00Program of Action, which was negotiated by President Obama, from which Americans withdrew.
11:06President Trump withdrew in 2018.
11:09That allowed IAEA supervision and civil nuclear program in Iran, which Iran has allowed under
11:16the non-proliferation treaty.
11:17What they're not allowed is what they had done was A.Q. Khan from Pakistan going and conducting
11:23and starting a clandestine program in Iran.
11:27So all that is now behind.
11:29They were always willing to hand over the enriched uranium.
11:33That is not buried.
11:34And President Trump says that we'll jointly take it out.
11:37That won't be an issue.
11:38The other one is proxies.
11:39I think what U.S. wants is to delink Iran from its proxies.
11:44And that is why even today, President Trump has said that Lebanon is not covered, which
11:49means they would allow Israel to control Hezbollah and therefore get security in its immediate
11:55neighborhood.
11:56And there is talk of Israel also going after Gaza again.
12:00So I think something the Americans will have to allow Israel to remain on board, because
12:05otherwise they will not accept the...
12:08So there will have to be, as you're saying, an element of give and take.
12:12You're importantly saying there's an exhaustion point that has been reached.
12:15Of course, there is one factor.
12:17And I want to bring that in at a moment, the Pakistan factor.
12:20You've suddenly got Pakistan trying to play a more visible role.
12:24Shahbaz Sharif is the one who tweeted, among others, about the ceasefire.
12:29And I spoke to Pakistani senior journalist, Hamid Mir, and asked him about the China factor.
12:34Actually, that's what he revealed, that China had a very important role to play in this
12:40ceasefire by putting pressure on Iran.
12:42Just listen in for a moment to what Hamid Mir said, and I'll come back to my panelists.
12:52You're telling me China, Pakistan, Iran were working in tandem, and you wanted to say something
13:00about Field Marshal Asim Munir.
13:02He had a special relationship with whom?
13:05He had...
13:06Asim Munir and Shahbaz Sharif had a very special relationship, not only with Trump, they also
13:12had a very special relationship with the Iranian president, Masood Pazishkian, and I am a witness.
13:19I am a witness to that special relationship.
13:22And last year, when I saw them talking to each other, I was, you see, surprised.
13:29I was standing just a few yards away from them.
13:35And the way the Iranian president was talking to the prime minister of Pakistan and the army
13:41chief of Pakistan, it was a great surprise for me.
13:43And then both of them, both prime minister of Pakistan and Field Marshal Asim Munir have
13:49a very special relationship with the Chinese leadership.
13:52So, you see, this is a unique relationship.
13:57This is a unique quality that they have special relationship, good relationship with Trump,
14:03with the Iranian leadership and then the Chinese leadership.
14:06And last night, when Trump made a very nasty statement, and he said that he will wipe out
14:17a whole civilization in one night, so everyone was very disturbed.
14:21So, after that, after that statement, it was China which helped Pakistan to convince Iran
14:29for agreeing on the ceasefire.
14:32So, the Pakistan and China, they were playing a role of a facilitator in coordination.
14:41And now, on 10th of April, which is Friday, I hope that this facilitation role will turn
14:50into a mediation role.
14:53Michael Gugelman, that's an interesting dimension.
14:55You track South Asia very closely, China being brought in there by the Pakistanis.
14:59Do you believe that, that it was China and Pakistan that played this facilitation role?
15:05Or is Pakistan exaggerating its role in trying to play the mediator?
15:12Well, I mean, if you go back a few weeks, there were a number of facilitators, Pakistan
15:15being one of them, along with Turkey and Egypt and several other countries in the Middle East.
15:21But I do agree with Hamid Mir, that if you look at the last few days, I think that during
15:26these final hours, China did step up its role.
15:29Last week, the Pakistani foreign minister made a very notable trip to Beijing.
15:34And after that trip, China and Pakistan jointly released a five-point initiative to restore
15:39peace in the Middle East.
15:41And my sense is that Pakistan recognizes that it does not have nearly as much leverage over
15:46Iran as China does.
15:48So it was natural for Pakistan to go to its iron brother, China, and to essentially seek
15:54that buy-in from China for this peace process.
15:58And so I would not be surprised if over the last few days, that China very quietly engaged
16:03very closely with the Iranians to try to get them to accept this proposal that Pakistan
16:09publicly put out there.
16:10It's very interesting then, Ron Malka, you've got China putting pressure on Iran to come to
16:15the negotiating table.
16:16Casey Singh says Donald Trump has reached exhaustion point.
16:20Where does this leave Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israelis?
16:23Is he still determined to effect some kind of regime change or decapitation of the regime?
16:30Or will he be now willing to step back and do whatever Donald Trump tells him to do?
16:38It's in this war, as I said before, is defending ourselves and not letting Iran have any weapon
16:45that might put Israel in risk, jeopardize Israel.
16:48This is what we mainly wanted and this is what we mainly got.
16:53So now Iran is far from reaching a nuclear weapon and, of course, this long-range missiles.
17:02So you believe Israel has achieved its objectives?
17:05You believe, Ambassador, Israel has achieved its objectives?
17:09Yes, yes.
17:10I don't know how much it will take, but it will take much, much time for Iran to regain
17:15this capability which they had until now.
17:17So, and hopefully, these new leaders, even if there's no regime change, the new leaders,
17:24hopefully, they will be more realistic and will put their own people in more priority
17:30and provide for them instead of building all those missiles and putting so much money
17:35in policies.
17:36Hopefully, hopefully, we still have the hope.
17:38So you're living in hope there.
17:40Syed, Zameer, Abbas, Jafri, what is the mood in Iran?
17:43Is it of triumph or is it of hope that this peace will last?
17:47Because Iran has taken a hammering in terms of militarily in this entire war so far.
17:59Mr. Desai, let's start with this thing, the hammering thing.
18:03So officially, more than 100,000 civilian locations have been hit by Israel or Israel and America
18:11together.
18:13So if the hammering is killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure, definitely
18:18they have achieved, but they have achieved none of the military objectives that they
18:23clearly stated to start the war.
18:25First of all, the start of the war was an illegal war, according to all international standards.
18:30Secondly, the claim that, I'll just give you an example.
18:34In Tehran, more than 37,000 houses were destroyed by Israel and American aggression.
18:40Out of them, 13,000 houses have been remade by the government and handed over to the people
18:46who are living there.
18:47So in Iran, the assumption, Iran is 1.6 million square kilometers.
18:55Iran is a huge country.
18:57And assumption that Iran is not working, being hammered, and Iran is being cornered.
19:02Every night, millions of people come across Iran to show to the world that this war is an
19:09aggression against their own country.
19:11And the people are united with their government and their military against the illegal aggression
19:17of America and Israel.
19:19So you're saying Iran is holding together.
19:23I take your point.
19:24And I just want a final word very quickly from you, Casey Singh.
19:27Therefore, let's circle back.
19:29Where are we at this stage?
19:32Iran now controls the state of Hormuz.
19:35In fact, they have weaponized it in a way.
19:37We don't know the state of their nuclear enrichment program.
19:40That remains uncertain.
19:42Yes, there is a new leadership.
19:44But do you really sense that Iran has emerged stronger in a way?
19:49Because in a war like this, survival, in a way, is a sign of a victory.
19:55Absolutely correct.
19:56So what Iran has put on the table now is much more aggressive than what they were willing
20:01to settle for when they were negotiating in Oman, before they were attacked.
20:06So, and also the strait was not part of the discussion at that stage.
20:11U.S. realizes that they cannot push Iran on the strait because otherwise they were asking
20:17for reparations.
20:18Who will give money to Iran for all the damage caused by the bombings?
20:23President Trump came out with a very strange thing, which is there in social media, saying
20:28the U.S. will also join Iran in controlling the strait.
20:33Now, I don't know what he has in mind.
20:35He wants a part of the cut of the money there.
20:38There's always a financial angle.
20:40But there is another thing which has come up.
20:42U.S. is insisting that any country that supplies weapons to Iran will face 50% tariffs.
20:51Now, that is aimed at China because there's no other country which is supplying those kinds
20:56of weapons or to which the tariffs matter.
20:59So, they want to delink Iran from the countries which have supported it, from its proxies in the region, and
21:08then see if they can settle with a weakened Iran, although it would appear
21:15that they would lift the sanctions, which would be good for Iran, and it's good for India.
21:21But India has this dilemma.
21:23We are very happy for normalization.
21:24We have 10 million people in the GCC countries.
21:28But you don't want an assertive Pakistan.
21:31That's the last thing you want.
21:32Because then it'll start its agenda of putting Kashmir on the table, taking it to OIC, internationalizing.
21:39And as Ahmed Meir said, you know, they'll go and present it to President Trump.
21:44So, that's the last thing India wants.
21:46So, that's the challenge presented to India and the gain that Pakistan is getting from this particular mediating.
21:55And don't forget, Pakistan had done the same thing by mediating between China and the U.S. in 1970-71,
22:02when Kissinger went to China, and the normalization began between them.
22:07This was the eve of the 71 war.
22:09So, at that point, also, Pakistan played the go-between.
22:12So, Pakistan is a good attack.
22:14But it strengthens them, revives them diplomatically, increases their role in the region.
22:19And I think that becomes a challenge for India, though India won't normalcy very quickly for trade and because of
22:27the people there and energy.
22:29Okay, I'm going to leave it there.
22:30Clearly, we don't know whether there are any winners or losers in the war.
22:34In a war like this, a war without strategy, you'd think no one really has won.
22:39And hopefully, peace will return sooner rather than later, and good sense will prevail.
22:46That's the prayer that each and every one of us should have when a war like this breaks out.
22:53An entirely avoidable war, many would suggest.
22:56Thank you to my guests for joining me on the show tonight.
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