- 5 weeks ago
The first phase of polling for the assembly election in West Bengal and for the single phase in Tamil Nadu has concluded with recording voter participation.
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00:00Hello and welcome. Good evening. You're joining us live here on India today on our rolling coverage of polling in
00:05Tamil Nadu and Bengal.
00:07In just about four minutes from now, it'll be curtains down on polling in Tamil Nadu and phase one of
00:12Bengal.
00:13We're going to be tracking the latest on the voter turnout.
00:15But before that, we're cutting across live to Howda in West Bengal, where Prime Minister Modi is currently holding a
00:21massive roadshow.
00:23This comes after back-to-back rallies by the Prime Minister and now in Howda in what is clearly a
00:29mega show of strength by the BJP, Prime Minister Modi,
00:33taking part in this roadshow, where you see hundreds of people lined up along the road to catch a glimpse
00:40of the Prime Minister.
00:42Remember, Howda goes to polls in the second phase.
00:45The BJP and Prime Minister Modi, in his speech earlier today, highlighted that he believes that people have come out
00:52in large numbers to cast their vote
00:53because it's a resounding message against the Trinamore Congress.
00:56The winds of change are sweeping through Bengal.
01:00But already you can see the aggressive push by the Bhartia Janata Party in phase two districts.
01:06These are districts that are considered to be TMC strongholds.
01:09Urban pockets of West Bengal, like that, of Kolkata, is in fact considered to be a stronghold of the TMC.
01:17And now you've got the BJP saying, irrespective of that, we will go all out in our campaign in each
01:25of these seats.
01:26And that's why Prime Minister Modi, too, on the campaign trail, holding back-to-back rallies
01:31and now taking part in this mega roadshow in Howda as well.
01:36We'll connect with our reporters on the ground who are there, getting us a sense of really the people who've
01:42gathered there.
01:43Maria Shaquille is live from where the roadshow is taking place in Howda.
01:47Maria, it's over to you.
01:48We can see the huge crowds that have gathered there.
01:51A BJP show of strength by the Prime Minister.
01:58Absolutely, certainly.
01:59This is a show of strength by the Prime Minister.
02:01The Prime Minister is leading from the front, and we have seen him hold similar rallies and roadshows in most
02:09pole-bound states.
02:10I'm coming to live from Howda.
02:12What are the significance?
02:13But first up, let me give you a sense of where I am.
02:16If the camera could pan and show, just look at the presence of children, their BJP flags.
02:22This is Belur Mat, which is one of India's most important spiritual and cultural institutions.
02:28It is the headquarters of the Ramakrishna Mutt and the Ramakrishna Mission, which was founded by Swami Vivekananda.
02:35So from here, a worldwide network of schools, hospitals, and relief work is in fact run.
02:41The temple's architecture, from where the Prime Minister actually began his roadshow,
02:46is a blend of Hindu motifs, which is reflecting the traditions and the teachings of Ramakrishna Parmanahans,
02:54about the unity of faith.
02:57So, talking about Howda, where I am, it is, of course, an important constituency.
03:01It's a district very close to Kolkata, just 30 minutes to Park Street,
03:06which is almost like the epicenter or the heart of Kolkata.
03:10So, Prime Minister holding a roadshow as news coming in from the Election Commission
03:16that the voter turnout in those 152 constituencies, which are spread across 16 districts, Akshita,
03:24is over 90 percent, an unprecedented voter turnout.
03:28That is also coming at a time when overall news of poll violence is significantly low
03:33that Bengal has not seen in decades.
03:36So, certainly good news of a free and fair election which has happened in Bengal.
03:41But Prime Minister Modi, if you look at those visuals,
03:43you can see him waving at the crowd which has gathered on both the sides of the road.
03:47There are BJP flags, people on both the sides as barricades have been put in place,
03:52and, of course, deployment of police.
03:54And I'll ask the camera person to pan again and show.
03:57The significance of Kolkata, of course, you know, Havra would be that it is far more than Kolkata's twin,
04:04as it is often said.
04:06It is a strategic, industrial, and a political heavyweight,
04:08and it has the iconic Havra Bridge.
04:12And, of course, the Havra Railway Station is among India's oldest and perhaps busiest stations.
04:18But overall, if you look at the political significance of this entire region,
04:24look, it is about the South 24 Parganas that I've been travelling,
04:28be it North 24 Parganas, where matuas are an important constituency.
04:34Akshita, all these constituencies go to polls in the second phase.
04:38So, as we have been saying that, you know, Bengal is voting in pockets, it's voting in regions.
04:43So, the sentiments change from one region to another.
04:46In South 24 Parganas, which is almost like a bastion of Mahmouda Banerjee,
04:50is different from North 24 Parganas, where the BJP did very, very well in 2021 elections,
04:58particularly keeping in mind its outreach to the matua voters
05:01at the Citizenship Amendment Act came into force.
05:05So, we have seen the BJP also revisit its strategy from region to region
05:09because they understand that in certain regions, the issue of job security is an important issue.
05:14On certain regions, particularly the urban pocket, Sakshita,
05:17the issue of women's safety and security is something very, very important.
05:21If you speak to the women, they do speak about the RG car issue,
05:25and they speak about how it changed the entire language of women's safety
05:30and how women look at the city and their governance,
05:34the challenges that they look at it from the point of view of accountability from a woman chief minister.
05:40Very close to where I am is Pani Hathi, from where RG car's victim's mother, Ratna Devnaath, is contesting.
05:48She is contesting on a BJP ticket.
05:51This is an entire, you know, Kolkata, Havda, all these are not really the strength of the BJP.
05:58They understand that their strength is in these 150 constituencies, 52 constituencies to be specific,
06:05which has polled today, which is spread across 16 districts.
06:08And it's in these constituencies, Akshita, that we, that the BJP has been confident because it is North Bengal.
06:16BJP's growth in Bengal, if you were to look at it, Akshita,
06:19if you look at it from that point that it starts in 2016, where the party had won just three
06:24seats,
06:24it goes up to 77 seats and 38 percent of votes in 2021.
06:31That came two years after the party won 18 MPs from Big Wall in 2019 elections.
06:38But after that, the party did see a significant dip,
06:41although it went down in the numbers to 12 MPs in 2024 elections.
06:46But its voter percentage, the vote that it polled, remained at 38 percent.
06:51So the challenge for the BJP is to go up from 38 to perhaps 44, 45 percent.
06:57That's where the tables could turn in Bengal.
07:00But aggressive positioning, aggressive campaigning by the prime minister,
07:05by the entire top leadership of the party.
07:07And what we have also seen is the BJP election juggernaut on display here,
07:12as is the case in most poll-bound states where they go all out.
07:18So the kind of micromanagement which is being done here,
07:22which involves, you know, party leaders, Bhupendra Yadav, RSS involvement,
07:27several leaders being called from neighbouring states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh,
07:33to manage small constituencies, because that is how the BJP wins elections.
07:39They want to go all out.
07:40And this has been almost like a dream project, Akshita.
07:42For 10 years, Home Minister Amit Shah has been very, very involved in Bengal.
07:49If you remember, it was almost like a project which began during his tenure as the BJP president.
07:54So soon after the BJP won Uttar Pradesh in 2017,
07:59their first national executive was held in Bhuvaneswar in Urissa,
08:04where the party started speaking about aggressively,
08:06saying that eastern part of India has to be won if the BJP were to look at new catchment areas.
08:14They understood that the Hindi belt has always been the strength for the party,
08:17but it is about the newer catchment areas.
08:20It is about newer terrains, be it the northeast, be it the eastern part of India,
08:24that the BJP has to form its government.
08:26And for 10 years, that project has been in the making.
08:30Then comes this election.
08:32If you speak to the leadership of the party, and I've been in touch with top leaders,
08:36they are speaking about the issues, and they are confident that women's safety and security
08:40is one of those issues which will ensure that the women of Bengal,
08:44who have been almost like a captive constituency behind a woman chief minister,
08:49will move away from Mahmata Banerjee and look at them favorably.
08:53So, of course, that's the calculation of the BJP.
08:56The Trinamool feels that the Lakshmi Bhandar scheme,
09:02which gives 1,500 rupees in account of all those women,
09:06will ensure that they will continue to back Mahmata Banerjee.
09:11It's an emotive issue.
09:12It's a sentimental election, extremely polarized election at the same time,
09:17which is being fought rather very, very intensely, fiercely by both the sides.
09:25Can I just highlight here, Ammaria,
09:26before we continue talking about the images on our screens of the Prime Minister's Roadshow,
09:31I just want your view also on the water turnout that's been reported in Bengal.
09:34It's the biggest talking point that we've seen till 5 p.m., 90 percent.
09:39So, which means when the final water turnout actually emerges,
09:41it's going to be more than that, at least a 4-5 percent increase.
09:45That's unprecedented.
09:47It blows your mind to think that we could see a 95 percent water turnout in phase 1 alone.
09:52And phase 1, as you tell us, is where the BJP is really counting on making their presence being felt.
09:58So, they'll be very happy looking at that water turnout.
10:04Yes, so I would say that phase 1 is the areas or the regions where, which is a mix of
10:12BJP and TMC,
10:14which has parts of North Bengal, where the BJP did very well in 2021,
10:20but it also has parts of Murshidabad and other belts, which are significant minority population.
10:27I think the noise here certainly means that the Prime Minister's movement can be seen, perhaps.
10:34Any movement, any movement, the Prime Minister's...
10:37Okay, so we can see, perhaps, the Prime Minister now.
10:41He will be coming here any moment.
10:43But talking about the water turnout, there is mixed reading.
10:47Of course, the BJP and its supporters are of the opinion that this high water turnout is a vote of
10:53change.
10:54On the other hand, there is this reading that could it be because of the SIR exercise,
10:59which led to deletion of the dead voters or all those who had moved out of Bengal.
11:04So, that remains a contentious issue.
11:07But any moment, the Prime Minister's cavalcade will be moving from where I am, Akshita,
11:13but this is what the BJP's election-winning machine looks like.
11:17Prime Minister on ground zero, Home Minister Amit Shah on ground zero,
11:20top ministers on ground zero in Bengal going all out to woo the people.
11:25It's not just about assembly elections.
11:27You see them fight as aggressively also in local bodies' elections.
11:32For them, every election has to be fought to be won.
11:34They don't believe in leaving anything to chance, and that's what we are seeing even today here.
11:40And it's interesting to note that, because, you know, phase two is where the TMC is strongest,
11:45which means that the BJP isn't holding back or shying away from taking on the TMC in their strongholds.
11:52You know, the BJP would have, in different situations or circumstances,
11:56or if a different party were in their shoes, focused on phase one,
12:00and then said phase two is the tougher challenge, so we'll exclude that.
12:03Here you've got the Prime Minister and the BJP doing everything they can
12:08to ensure that even the TMC strongholds are challenged here,
12:11which is why we understand Home Minister Amit Shah's camping in Kolkata for the last few days,
12:16and will continue to do so.
12:18Prime Minister Modi is on the roadshow in Hauda, where you are, Maria.
12:21And as we speak, live images also of Mamata Banerjee campaigning.
12:25But this is the BJP strategy.
12:26They're saying we'll take the fight to the TMC even in their strongholds.
12:32Yes, absolutely.
12:34Look, we'll be making that distinction of strongholds in just a bit, Achita.
12:37But let's not forget that in 2021, the elections were held in eight phases.
12:42This time around, the elections are held in only two phases.
12:45So in both these phases,
12:47there are strong pockets of the BJP and the strong pockets of the TMC,
12:52and pockets where the voters are silent.
12:54So in phase two, where I am at present, which will go to polls on 29th,
12:59there is also 24 North Parganas,
13:02where the Madhuas are in important constituency,
13:05and Madhuas voted favorably in high percentage for the BJP in 2021 elections.
13:10So, and it also has South 24 Parganas, which is seen as Mamata Banerjee's bastion.
13:16So, you know, as far as the definition of which phase is stronger
13:19may not be fitting in that very, you know,
13:22hackneyed way of explaining that one phase is good for the one party,
13:26the other phase is good for the challenger.
13:28No, it's not going to be that way.
13:29It is that in both these phases,
13:31there are enough and more pockets which are good for both the parties.
13:34So that's why the challenge for the BJP is to take this fight right here.
13:38In those pockets, as the Prime Minister is doing in Havra,
13:43and in those pockets, like urban centers, as they are called,
13:46densely populated, and the margins of Kolkata,
13:50these are the urban centers which are seen as the Bhadralok Center,
13:55where the intelligentsia or the intellectuals of Bengal live.
13:59And these are places where you'll hear a lot about linguistic identity, Akshita.
14:05So linguistic identity along with cultural fusion is what is at play here.
14:10Linguistic identity is something that people of Tamil Nadu,
14:13people like me are very, very, you know, known for.
14:16And it's something that we are very, very aware of as well.
14:19Thanks very much, Maria.
14:20We're going to connect with you once again in just a bit
14:22as we continue to get those live images from Havra,
14:25of the Prime Minister campaigning.
14:27Huge, huge turnout there of crowds in Havra,
14:31just about 30 minutes away from Kolkata.
14:32Interestingly, in Kolkata is where Mamta Banerjee is also currently campaigning.
14:36So political temperature is soaring in Havra in Bengal.
14:39But I want to put the focus right now on the big headline that's emerged
14:42from Tamil Nadu, from Bengal as well.
14:44What a day it's been.
14:46Yes, people have come out in massive numbers.
14:48You know, we've constantly appealed for people to come out and cast their vote.
14:52And the people of Bengal, the people of Tamil Nadu have showed up.
14:55And how bumper vote out, a turnout that's been reported in Tamil Nadu
15:01and Phase 1 of Bengal.
15:03Polling has come to an end officially at 6pm.
15:06The election commission closes the gates and says no more people
15:09will be allowed inside in these polling venues.
15:1290% is the voter turnout in Bengal.
15:15I'll highlight that that 90% figure is still 5pm.
15:18So the last one hour of turnout is yet to be added in.
15:22So easily, it's going to be above 92%.
15:25As far as Tamil Nadu is concerned, 82.24% voter turnout reported in Tamil Nadu.
15:31Again, much like Bengal, till 5pm.
15:34So that one last hour of data is yet to be scrutinized.
15:38We're expecting in about one hour from now that final data will be out
15:41from the election commission.
15:43This is huge.
15:44Just to speak about Tamil Nadu for a moment, this is unprecedented.
15:48Because in Tamil Nadu, if you look at the last election, it was 74%.
15:51Now, it's at 82%.
15:53It could go up to about 86%.
15:55And yes, everyone's talking about the SIR impact.
15:58There's no doubt that the SIR does have an impact.
16:01What it's done is it's cleaned up the voter rolls.
16:03Obviously, your percentage is tighter.
16:05But beyond that, you look at the number of votes polled as well.
16:09It's definitely increased.
16:11Now, if the number of votes polled in Tamil Nadu goes above 5 crores
16:15or even touches 5 crores, that right there is unprecedented.
16:19So we're going to wait for that data.
16:21We're going to understand what really the numbers look like beyond the percentage as well
16:26to really get a sense about whether this is truly, truly a historic voter turnout in Tamil Nadu.
16:32Just quickly also to break down in Tamil Nadu, in Chennai itself, it's 81.34%.
16:37Usually, it's the urban pockets that kind of lag behind.
16:40What we're seeing is, yes, the districts are doing well.
16:42But it's good to see that Chennai, too, is kind of ensuring that they lift their weight
16:47and show up in large numbers to cast their vote.
16:50Extremely promising numbers, these.
16:51And whichever way you want to read it, as winds of change, winds of constant,
16:55at the end of the day, the people of Tamil Nadu have shown up to cast their vote,
16:59which is very, very promising to see.
17:00I want to bring in Pramod Madhav.
17:02He's joining us live.
17:03We'll also have with us Anagar Keshav and Nagarjun Dwarkanath in just a bit,
17:08but Pramod, huge voter turnout.
17:10Did you see this on the ground as well?
17:12A lot more enthusiasm among people to cast their vote.
17:15Longer queues on the ground.
17:20It absolutely is, Akshita.
17:22In fact, like right now, we are inside of one of the conferences that is Atina God.
17:25And at 6 p.m., and everything has been closed right now.
17:27But just like you mentioned, 82.24% is a massive number when it comes to Tamil Nadu.
17:32Because even last time, it went up to 68% by 6 p.m.,
17:35and it went up to 72% by 7 p.m., the final count.
17:38But here, as we speak, the place has been closed,
17:41and all the work, everything, the equipments have been handed over to the presiding officer.
17:46And as we speak, the final check is also being done.
17:48And these officials over here are taking over the VVPAT machine and the EVM machine.
17:53So for Tamil Nadu, this is quite surprising, actually.
17:56But you saw the kind of, like, enthusiasms.
17:59There was a lot of enthusiasm on the ground, Aspen,
18:02which we very clearly could see that the people wanted to go ahead and cast their vote.
18:06Unlike in 2021, where we also saw kind of the same kind of enthusiasm,
18:09this time, 2026, a lot of factors are playing a very important role.
18:13We can call SIR, we can call the newcomers, the new players and such,
18:16and the promises made by various parties,
18:19and the kind of, like, you know, the welfare schemes promises and such.
18:22So we are going to just keep it that way,
18:23that each and every party has made, like, top promises.
18:26They actually, and they have, like, no, they have also said
18:28that once they come to power, they will definitely make sure they implement them.
18:32And also, you can see right now, everything has been done,
18:35and the counting is on 4th of May.
18:37So the fate of Tamil Nadu will be decided for the next five years on 4th of May.
18:41But however, everything has come to an end for the day, Akshita.
18:46Okay, thanks very much, Pramod, for that report.
18:48I'll bring in on this panel right now, we've got Sandeep Shastri, election analyst,
18:53we have Sumansi Raman, political analyst, and our Rajagopalan, senior journalist as well.
18:58Dr. Sumansi Raman, I'd like to come across to you,
19:00before we take a look at the water turnout and what has been historically versus now,
19:05you know, I want to understand from you, what do you make of this?
19:08Is this truly unprecedented? Is this truly historic?
19:12Or do you think, ultimately, this is only the impact of SIR?
19:16No, now that we've crossed 81.5%, the SIR part is out of the picture.
19:22Whatever we get above 81.5% is pure and simple increased votes
19:28which are coming in this election versus 2021.
19:32It now looks likely that the overall voter turnout may end up around 86%.
19:3887%, which means 6% to 7% higher than SIR adjusted voter turnout, right?
19:48So, last time, 73.2%, approximately 81.5% means that we've equaled the effect of SIR
19:56from 81.5% up to perhaps 86%, 87%, that's about 6% would probably be the increased voter turnout.
20:06The last time we saw a 6% to 7% increase, it was in 2011.
20:13That was a mammoth anti-incumbency wave.
20:16So, just a note of caution there.
20:18So, you may want to look at anti-incumbency as a factor in this election.
20:24Anti-incumbency as a factor, but does that mean benefit or advantage for the AIADMQ or advantage for the TVK?
20:32Sandeep Shastri, you know, this is always something that comes up.
20:35Do you read, over-read?
20:37Do we over-analyze the voter turnout to kind of indicate what it means?
20:41Or is that data valid, that if you see a high voter turnout, automatically it means people are frustrated,
20:48people want to come out, cast their vote, and it means, obviously, a bigger chance for the AIADMQ or the
20:53TVK?
20:53Do you believe in that reading of the voter turnout?
20:56Akshita, three points on what you have said.
20:58Number one, there is no empirical data that I know of, which indicates that a higher voter turnout supports the
21:08incumbent or the challenger.
21:10There have been examples of higher voter turnout leading to the victory of an incumbent.
21:15There have been higher voter turnout which have led to the victory of the challenger.
21:19So, rather than whims of change, I would say these are whims of assertion.
21:24The voter of Tamil Nadu, she is asserting herself.
21:30He is saying that, yes, I want my voice to be heard.
21:34So, for me, it is a wind of assertion.
21:39Point number three.
21:40Just on that point, quickly, Mr. Sandeep Shastri, there has to be a push for that point of assertion, right?
21:47Every five years, they have a chance to go ahead and assert.
21:49What triggers that push?
21:51Ultimately, there is an emotion attached to the vote.
21:53And that emotion very often is that we want our voice to be heard and it's inevitably an emotion of
21:59anger.
22:01I would beg to defer, Akshita.
22:04For me, that's the third point.
22:06Given the intensity of polarization that you have in this Tamil Nadu election,
22:12this polarization has resulted in the people who support either camp or all the three camps here feeling that we
22:22need to come out and defend the position that we support.
22:27So, I think the intensity of the polarization of the voters for me is the reason for this assertion and
22:37is the factor which accounts for the higher voter turnout this time around.
22:42Okay, so let me just highlight here and we'll bring it across to our election intelligence dashboard right now to
22:47give you a sense of what the water turnout looks like before I bring in Mr. Rajagopalan on his viewer
22:52as well.
22:52If I were to look at Tamil Nadu, why are we constantly saying that this is historic, that Tamil Nadu
22:58has never really recorded these kind of figures?
23:00I'll just show you what really the water turnout history in Tamil Nadu has actually looked like in the last
23:06many, many decades.
23:08We're comparing it and I will highlight here that this is data until 5pm.
23:13So, this is not even the overall voter turnout and yet look at those figures.
23:162011, 75%.
23:182016, you had 74%.
23:20I'll highlight that 2011 actually saw what was considered to be a record voter turnout because that's when anti-incumbency
23:27hit and Jail Alita came to power.
23:30Came back to power in 2016 which is when you saw a slight dip of voter turnout by 1%.
23:34It remained more or less on the same track despite the change in government from 2016 to 2021 which means
23:40anti-incumbency did hit.
23:41Voter turnout didn't change.
23:4374%, 74%, 73 point something percent overall we've rounded it up to 74%.
23:502026 now, imagine that.
23:52All through you've been in the 70s in Tamil Nadu and now it's gone up to 82%.
23:56And again, I will highlight that this is still 5pm.
23:59So, expect that number to go up.
24:01As Dr. Sumansi Raman also said, there is an SIR impact.
24:04You can't deny that.
24:05But that SIR impact has gone well beyond that.
24:08And now the fact that you're going to see somewhere along at 86, 87%, maybe even higher than that, who
24:13knows.
24:14If that happens, that is truly historic.
24:17That is truly unprecedented.
24:19I'm still holding off from calling it that because we've got data only till 5pm.
24:23And Mr. Rajagopalan, what I'll be looking at, beyond the percentage, beyond these numbers, because of SIR, is the number
24:31of votes polled.
24:32And perhaps that will give us a sense of whether this is truly a historic voter turnout that we're witnessing
24:385 crore plus.
24:39And then if it's 5 crore plus, what is the sentiment that we can gauge from that?
24:44It is primarily due to, you know, if you compare what Mr. Vijay and Yadapadi Pani Swami attracted a huge
24:52crowd.
24:52If you compare that with the vote percentage of 85, 86, whatever you may term, which is also included from
24:59Puduchari's wave.
25:01I could say Puduchari also got 90%, not one or two.
25:05Yeah, I agree.
25:06Puduchari, you know, everywhere, the sister states, for example, Madhya Pradesh, Chathisgari will have a reflection.
25:12For Jharkhand, you know, Bihar will be a reflection.
25:15For Chennai, for Puduchari will be a reflection.
25:17Second thing, my high percentage of turnout at Mr. Yadapadi Pani Swami's rally was immense one.
25:23Even then, 82% is a massive one.
25:26In my, you know, 40, 45 years of Tamil, I've never seen that.
25:30Second, voters did not believe negative campaign official M.K. Stalin.
25:35You can't be accusing the center.
25:37You can't be accusing the center.
25:39Second thing, the DMK allies like MDMK, like DMDK, like Congress, like CPM, they brought down the chances of DMK.
25:49They also brought negative impact on this.
25:52Very important, as I have understood the Tamil Nadu politics, it is direct fight between Vijay and Udainil Stalin.
26:00Otherwise, you know, it would not have gone to that jump.
26:03Second, most important thing is, Prime Minister's rally.
26:07And actually, Shastri was the example, giving that, these are all certain important things, which DMK ignored it.
26:15The ADMK and BJP, you know, ignited it more.
26:19Therefore, these are all certain points added to that.
26:22The recent visit of Mr. CP Radha to Colombo, it may not have any impact on the voters.
26:27But psychologically, at the same time, like Dinesh Tirvedi being appointed as India's high commissioner in Bangladesh.
26:33So if you compare these things, even one percentage of vote is also, you know, that is what I could
26:38make it out.
26:38No, just, Mr. Rajagopalan, just on the point that you made about how Stalin's campaign really was against the central
26:46government and it didn't really echo.
26:47I will say this, that on the ground of Tamil Nadu, the constant talk is, and when I was there
26:53in the last one month,
26:53you don't see that anti-incumbency on the ground, Mr. Rajagopalan.
26:57There's no anger against Stalin per se.
27:00In fact, everyone says that, you know, there is a certain amount of goodwill for the chief minister,
27:03for the work he's done, for the development that he's done, the infrastructure projects that he's done.
27:08But at the same time, after Prime Minister's three or four visits, the impact changed, Ashita.
27:14My understanding is...
27:14No, but does that work in Tamil Nadu?
27:16Does that work in Tamil Nadu, especially for the NDA, for the AIA-DMK, for the NDA, which is under
27:20the AIA-DMK, sir?
27:22The BJP is more the face, they play second fiddle.
27:25The voters, or, you know, you can't be...
27:28Voters understood the importance of Narendra Modi because for the last 10 years,
27:32monkey bath, law parties, and moreover, whatever the good schemes,
27:37they also embed certain qualities of Mr. Narendra Modi.
27:40That's why I say negative campaign of DMK against Prime Minister brought some sympathy for the BJP
27:47and also for the other party primary summit.
27:49And moreover, the alliance partnership of Mr. Amishas also done wonders.
27:54Otherwise, we would not have expected 85 or 86, never.
27:58In my life, I never saw this type of heavy wood that shows people's waters angry.
28:04Okay.
28:05So, that's your view.
28:06Yes, Mr. Raman, go ahead.
28:07Akshita, I'm completely surprised how you didn't see any anti-incumbency.
28:11No, I'll tell you why.
28:13No, no, one minute.
28:14Let me explain it then.
28:15Let me finish.
28:16No, you've asked me a question, sir.
28:17Let me answer it.
28:18Okay, answer, answer.
28:19So, to me, I've seen the anti-incumbency only on two factors.
28:23One, on the issue of women's safety.
28:25That was raised.
28:26And second, among farmers.
28:27Nowhere else, sir.
28:28And all of that largely is questions asked against the government.
28:31You did not see the number of videos of ruling party candidates not being allowed to campaign in villages?
28:40No, I did.
28:41Of course I did.
28:42There are more than 25, 30 videos in different constituencies.
28:46That is against the MLA, Mr. Suman Sri Raman.
28:48That is against the MLA.
28:49I agree.
28:50What I was talking about is the goodwill for Stalin, his image itself.
28:54No, no, that is what I agree entirely with you.
28:57Mr. Stalin is far more popular than his party.
28:59But at the end of the day, when there is anger at the local MLA, when there is anger with
29:04the local minister,
29:05definitely that tends to come out at the election.
29:08And clearly, I cannot think of any other reason.
29:14Obviously, there is SIR.
29:15That's up to 81.5%.
29:17Obviously, there is a Vijay factor, a little bit of enthusiasm.
29:20But to come to 86, 87% turnout in an election, in a state of the size of Tamil Nadu,
29:28to say that there is no anti-incumbency, I will be completely gobsmacked.
29:32Mr. Sandeep Shastri, you know, both your co-panelists believe that this is a clear-cut indication of anti-incumbency.
29:40Do you see at 82% that largely that is a vote for the DMK, for the incumbent?
29:47You know, when it's these kind of numbers?
29:50Especially because in 2021, when Stalin came to power, the voter turned out to 74%, sir.
29:56Akshita, while I respect and value the inputs of my co-panelists,
30:03I would also argue that no vote is always on a negative glue.
30:10A vote simply against, I think the voter in India today and the voter in Tamil Nadu today
30:18is much more intelligent who does not look at voting against, but voting for.
30:23There are issues which he or she votes in favour of.
30:27There are issues which he or she believes is something that they would like to stake their political trust on.
30:36So while I concede that anti-incumbency may be a factor,
30:41my past surveys over the last 30 years I have done show that anti-incumbency by itself does not produce
30:49a result.
30:50Anti-incumbency sets out or unleashes a range of emotions which then need to be positively channelized.
31:01And the last point, Akshita, even if we assume there is anti-incumbency,
31:06there are two buckets in which this anti-incumbency could have gone.
31:10The Vijay bucket or the NDA bucket.
31:12And it will be interesting to see who was able to benefit from it more
31:17if this 82% is largely a by-product of anti-incumbency by itself.
31:24But I would believe there is a much deeper story which will unfold on the 4th or 5th of May.
31:334th of May, hopefully we will have those answers.
31:35Mr. Shastri, let's not jinx it and say that it's going to take over 24 hours for those answers to
31:40come in.
31:41Mr. Raji Kopalan, just one question.
31:43And I'm going to put on our screens the images that came in overnight of these bus stations across Tamil
31:49Nadu,
31:49packed, you know, there are people coming across it.
31:51So many people who highlighted that these are largely youngsters.
31:54And so they went ahead and jumped to the conclusion that this is a TVEK movement.
32:00That this is support, overwhelming support for Vijay that's turned up in Tamil Nadu.
32:05What do you make of that?
32:06That this 82% can be attributed to Vijay, to support for Vijay?
32:11The antipathy of the MK by Vijay, that also definitely a mark.
32:17That also increased.
32:18What you said is absolutely correct, Achita.
32:20But one thing is very certain, Rahul Gandhi's absence, politically speaking,
32:25that is more important because he was dilly-dallying.
32:28Rahul Gandhi adopted a big R style, strangest Vyadha style on MK Stalin.
32:32And moreover, you would have also heard Mr. Vijay saying,
32:36I have that original conqueror's support to me.
32:39That means, what is that?
32:40That confused the voters.
32:42That also confused the DMK allies.
32:45Because Rahul Gandhi did not campaign with the MK Stalin.
32:49That's a major negative point DMK attracted.
32:52Honestly, I tend to ask this, Mr. Rajagopalan,
32:55of how much relevance national parties actually have in an election in Tamil Nadu.
32:59Whether it's the BJP or whether it's the Congress, sir.
33:02It has started.
33:03In Tamil Nadu, it has started.
33:05Congress and the BJP, they have started to realize it.
33:08That is also one input.
33:10That's why that 82% hype.
33:12Otherwise, the 78% result due to Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah combined.
33:18I would also say that national parties' importance is growing in Tamil Nadu.
33:23Because of the anti-center stance,
33:26cessation is removing,
33:27and moreover, tukra-tukra gang like that,
33:29what Narendra Modi has been saying in five rallies.
33:31That also had an impact.
33:33No, but of 234 seats,
33:35of 234 seats in Tamil Nadu, sir,
33:37between the BJP and the Congress,
33:3927, 28 respectively.
33:41So that's just about 55 seats that we're essentially seeing
33:44that they are fighting themselves in a 234 strong assembly.
33:48So that's why I question the relevance of national parties.
33:50Just to again bring the focus to those images that I spoke of.
33:53And before I bring in Dr. Sumansi Raman and Sandeep Shastri on that,
33:56here's a report of the political fight that played out today in Tamil Nadu
34:01over images that came in of people gathered in large numbers at bus stations
34:05and struggling to get to their natives in time to vote.
34:08TVK chief Vijay, right after he cast his vote,
34:11shot off a letter to the election commission,
34:12urging for voting hours to be extended for two hours.
34:16That didn't happen.
34:17The EC has shut the gates off at 6 p.m.
34:19He also urged for extra transport facilities to be provided
34:22because according to him, this was a conspiracy.
34:25Take a look at this report.
34:45A massive political face-off is brewing in Tamil Nadu.
34:51The spotlight is on thousands of voters,
34:54unable to reach home to cast their votes.
35:00Long queues of passengers were witnessed at several bus stops
35:03in multiple districts due to shortage of buses.
35:12It gave fresh ammunition to TVK to corner the DMK government.
35:18TVK chief Vijay wrote to election commission highlighting fears of voters losing their date with ballot.
35:26Vijay also urged election commission to extend the voting for two hours till 8 p.m.
35:32Last 24 hours, there is no proper plan and execution in Tamil Nadu Transport Department.
35:37M.K. Stalin is still controlling some IAS officers.
35:42He pressured all the officials, actually.
35:45So that's why we want to suspend these three IAS officers.
35:49We need an inquiry, department inquiry.
35:51The IAS officers should go to the bus stand, actually.
35:53You have to understand what is the issue, where is the planning and execution.
35:58Meanwhile, DMK rubbished all the charges and branded it propaganda by opposition parties.
36:06DMK MP Kani Moe clarified that all arrangements were in places to ensure that voters could exercise their franchise.
36:15Any government will make sure that there are enough facilities for voters to come and vote.
36:24If you want to make false accusations again and again,
36:29and especially on a day when people come to vote, that is politics.
36:33Ma'am, TVK's Vijay has returned to election commission asking for additional two hours of extension for voting.
36:41I don't have anything to comment about it. I don't know why.
36:45Kiosk and ruckus were reported in several districts across Tamil Nadu, but voter turnout was still high.
36:56What message are the voters of Tamil Nadu sending with this mammoth turnout?
37:04Bureau Report, India Today.
37:09So that controversy playing out on polling day, but those images is what sparked all this curiosity
37:16about whether the 82% voter turnout that we're seeing today is a result of people overwhelmingly wanting to vote
37:22for Vijay.
37:23Mr. Sumansi Raman, what do you think?
37:25Do you think that those images are something that we see every single time during election season
37:28or truly unprecedented as many are deeming it?
37:32Actually, you know, people do go out in large numbers to their native places to cast their vote.
37:38This happens before every election.
37:39I think there was a problem, if I remember right, in 2021 also, where there was an accusation then made
37:46by the DMK,
37:47who were in the opposition then, saying that adequate buses were not provided.
37:50So, clearly, adequate buses have not been provided.
37:54The ruling state government has put the blame on the election commission, saying the election commission should have organized this.
37:59Having said that, I think by this morning, generally by 10, 10.30 in the morning, most of these issues
38:05had sort of been resolved.
38:08Obviously, it is possible that some people just sort of abandoned their decision to travel and went back home and
38:14their votes may not have been cast.
38:17But from the turnout, I think it seems pretty clear that most people who intended to go and vote did
38:25manage to go and vote
38:26because we are normally, Akshita, after the 6 p.m., when the polling ends, the number which is given after
38:356 p.m. is usually X.
38:37That usually goes up by another 2 or 2.5 percent, you know, as some votes may be voting up
38:44to 7, 7.30.
38:45So, the key part is we could end up with close to 87, 88 percent overall.
38:53No, at what point, Mr. Sumansi Raman, at what point of the voter turnout would you say that, look, this
38:59could be a wave election?
39:01Look, it's very simple, Akshita.
39:04There are 154 rural seats.
39:06If Vijay takes close to 20 percent or more in those seats, he helps the DMK.
39:12If Vijay polls less than 15 percent in those seats, the AIA DMK comfortably wins.
39:17So, this is the bottom line which is going to decide this election.
39:21My gut feel is, I think, there are certain parts of the state, particularly West, where these turnouts of 90
39:27percent has been crossed in some places, 88, 87 percent in Salem district and so on.
39:32Like Tirupur.
39:32Tirupur and so on.
39:33Those are going to be swept by the AIA DMK.
39:35I have no doubt about that.
39:37The question is…
39:37Swept by the AIA DMK.
39:38Because, you know, when I was in Tirupur, when I was in Tirupur, the support for Vijay, for TVK stunned
39:45me.
39:45And I had no idea that, you know, there was this much momentum for him there.
39:52Akshita, with all due respect, you probably went to on the day that the Vijay actually came to Tirupur.
39:57No, I didn't.
39:57No, I didn't.
39:58I didn't.
39:59I had visited the Trichy rally and then this was a separate…
40:02I don't know where this entire story has come that Vijay…
40:07Because we've also been on the ground.
40:09We have seen Vijay's impact in urban areas, yes.
40:13But in the villages, we've hardly seen the Vijay factor at all.
40:17Whoever we talk to says, yes, they will do well in big cities, big towns, but they are not having
40:23much of a presence in the villages.
40:25And, you know, the classic example they said was, they may get about 100, 150 votes in each booth.
40:30You know, that was the talk and mostly from the youngsters in the villages.
40:34Obviously, it's going to be different in Chennai.
40:36And how much ever vote Vijay takes in Chennai and surrounding, that hardly does damage the AIDMK.
40:42That's why I said…
40:42I agree.
40:43Urban, the dent very clearly…
40:45The result is in 154 seats.
40:46The urban dent will be on the DMK.
40:49There's no doubt about that.
40:50You're right in highlighting that it depends on how much Vijay can really pull off in these rural pockets as
40:55well.
40:55One more point, Akshila.
40:56Sure, quickly, sir.
40:57Akshila, one more point.
40:59The Karur incident brought how much of crushing you can do by the DMK on TVK that has been exhibited
41:05by Sangeetha's issue and also the Janana icon.
41:09And now, the extended issue of bus being stalled because DMK definitely has a hand in crushing Mr. Vijay's popularity.
41:21That is why I say…
41:23He's definitely faced challenges, but I will highlight this.
41:26As I thank all the gentlemen for joining me on this broadcast, Mr. Sandeep Shastri, Mr. Raji Gopal and Mr.
41:31Sumansi Raman, thank you for joining us.
41:33We'll know ultimately what this turnout has meant on May 4th.
41:36I will say this, that when I was on ground, a couple of things that I noticed is that, yes,
41:40there is anti-incumbency against the DMK, but not sizable, not this kind of a water turnout triggering anti-incumbency.
41:47Not to that level at all.
41:48The AIA-DMK for them, the regional, their traditional strongholds matter the most for them to stand a chance in
41:55this election.
41:55And yes, in those traditional regional strongholds, I very much visited them.
41:59I very much saw the TVK seeping into the traditional, you know, rural pockets as well.
42:05So, no, he's no longer just an urban phenomenon.
42:08The question is, how much of that impact will be on the DMK, AIA-DMK, how much can they actually
42:12swallow that?
42:14We'll know on May 4th what that 82% plus water turnout actually means.
42:19Unbelievable numbers to all people of Tamil Nadu, congratulations.
42:23You've lived up to expectations.
42:2582% plus water turnout is an extremely healthy, positive number.
42:30So, away from the politics, congratulations to every citizen of Tamil Nadu.
42:40Amid a record water turnout, Phase 1 of Bengal, Home Minister Amit Shah has now taken a sunset jibe at
42:48Mamta Banerjee.
42:49Posting a video of a sunset over the skies of Bengal, Home Minister Amit Shah has taken a taunted Mamta
42:58Banerjee,
42:58saying that the sun of TMZ's corruption and hooliganism has set that it's a new dawn essentially for Bengal.
43:06The BJP are expressing confidence repeatedly that this is their election to win in Bengal.
43:13And so, as Phase 1 of voting has come to an end in Bengal, Amit Shah has taken to social
43:19media, to Instagram,
43:20to post that video of the sun setting with a message that the sun of the TMZ's corruption and hooliganism
43:28is setting over Bengal.
43:30Ultimately, with one more phase to go, it's on May 4th that we'll have the answers as to really whose
43:36sun is setting and which dawn is rising in Bengal.
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