- 5 hours ago
A political showdown has erupted in West Bengal ahead of counting day over allegations of electronic voting machine tampering and exit poll predictions.
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00:02Good evening, you're watching To The Point. I'm Preeti Chaudhary. Less than 72 hours to go on the fate of
00:08four states, one union territory over the course of the next one hour. We are going to focus on the
00:13state of West Bengal. Lots of anxiety amongst both the political parties at the back of the exit polls and
00:21not just that, not limited to anxiety. Lot of action happening on ground as well. We're going to break it
00:27down for you. First up, allow me to take you through the headlines.
00:33Amid surging crude oil prices, sources say government likely to hike fuel price by rupees 5 per litre soon. Domestic
00:40LPG rates may be hiked by 50 per cylinder. Final decision likely to be taken in the next seven days.
00:52Commercial LPG price hiked by rupees 993 for 19 kilos. Commercial LPG cylinder now at 3071. International jet fuel price
01:03hiked by 5 percent.
01:10Well, it promises to be a blockbuster battle on the cards in Tamil Nadu. Two pollsters predict Thalapati wave. Today's
01:17Chanakya gives 63 seats to TVK but projects DMK victory in Tamil Nadu, which are likely to visit Nanga Pathinam
01:25Church and Danda tomorrow.
01:33High drama in Kolkata late last night. Mamata Banuji visits EVM strongroom in Kolkata, alleging bid to tamper EVMs. BJP
01:42Hits Back says this shows Mamata Banuji's panic before loss. Poll body asserts voters that EVMs are safe.
01:56Punjab chief minister Bhagawan Tman accused of coming to the state assembly inaugurated.
02:02Dobe test demanded by opposition rejected by Punjab speaker.
02:07Mahan wins crucial trust vote after drama.
02:15First commercial flight from Noida International Airport to take off from June 15th. Indigo to operate first flight from newly
02:22inaugurated airport.
02:40All right, there were certain Boots viewers when West Bengal voted in the second phase that had reported certain irregularities.
02:48The Election Commission is now all set to hold repolling on the 2nd of May at 15 Boots, which is
02:55tomorrow.
02:56Repolling on 11 Boots in Mangrahat, Paschim. Four Boots in Diamond Harbour to also vote again.
03:03Reports in relation to complaints related to 144 Falta Assembly constituency is abated, if you remember.
03:10Falta, a controversy there where certain voters had alleged that tape was put on the BJP button.
03:18As per sources, the schedule of more than 30 Boots of the Falta Assembly constituency is abated.
03:23So those 30 Boots notwithstanding, the EC has ordered repolling that will take place on the 2nd of May, which
03:34is tomorrow at 15 Boots.
03:36Of course, these 15 Boots do not include the 30 Boots in Falta.
03:41I want to quickly cut across right now to my colleague Anirban, who is joining us for more.
03:46But before we cut across to him, let's listen in to all the reactions coming in.
03:52The following – the situation that happened in Mangrahat, West, is the welcome to the Diamond Harbour.
03:57The local authorities had been in the West.
03:57They had been in the 11th of May, which was only in the 4th of May.
04:00And the entire Falta segment had been in the 100th of May.
04:02At least, the 60th of May, should have been in the 50th of May.
04:04The Falta could not be able to get out of the order.
04:07The Falta should not have been in the 40th of May, but it seems that they have been in the
04:20order.
04:27So that's a quick reaction coming in from Shuvendu Adhikari from the Bharatiya Janata Party.
04:32But the latest is coming in from the Election Commission.
04:35Repolling has been ordered on 15 booths.
04:37These booths, viewers, do not include the 30-odd booths where a lot of voters had reported anomalies where the
04:47EVMs were concerned.
04:48And I want to cut across to my colleague Anirban Sinha Roy, who's joining us for more.
04:53Anirban, what's the latest? Any word coming in on the booths regarding Falta?
05:03Well, see, what we have seen so far is the notification given by the ECI,
05:07where it was stated that 15 booths will go on to repoll tomorrow, that is on 2nd of May.
05:13And another sources from the ECI as well as the CEO of West Bengal is telling us
05:18that more 30 booths could go to repoll on 2nd of May either or else 3rd of May
05:24because there is several irregularities being complained from the Falta booths
05:29because from the Falta Assembly constituency where labeling of the tapes in the EVM machines,
05:35buttons and also by allegations by the BJP, where BJP candidate had complaints
05:42against the Trinomol Congress and also labeling of the buttons that BJP lotus symbol.
05:49So that's why what we have learned so far is maybe in some time the ECI as well as the
05:55CEO of West Bengal
05:56will give a notification on another 30 booths that will go on.
05:59Fair enough. And we are awaiting that, Anirban, because repolling would need to take place
06:05at best by tomorrow, if not day after, because counting is on the 4th of May.
06:11Anirban, continue to stay with us, but I want to quickly take our viewers
06:14through dramatic developments that have taken place in the last 24 hours.
06:18You've had certain exit polls that have predicted a clean sweep of the Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal,
06:24some giving it to the TMC, most predicting dead heat between the TMC and the BJP.
06:31But in midst of all of that, there was a midnight face-off over EVMs
06:36and you had the incumbent Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee, get onto the streets,
06:41sit on a dharma, right in the middle of the night. Here's more.
06:48A political showdown has erupted in Bengal, even before the votes are counted.
06:54Allegations of EVM tampering, a midnight protest by TMC
06:58and a war of words between the TMC, BJP and the Election Commission.
07:03The TMC has alleged attempts to access strong rooms,
07:08claimed its representatives were blocked
07:10and accused the BJP and the Election Commission of collusion.
07:15Mamata Banerjee herself reached the Bhabanipur strong room,
07:18alleging manipulation and bowing a fight to the finish.
07:40The election commission has firmly rejected the charges,
07:43calling them baseless,
07:45insisting all strong rooms are sealed and secure.
08:14The BJP has hit back,
08:16with them saying the party will ensure the safety of EVMs
08:20and accused Mamata of creating drama to gain sympathy.
08:46This explosive face-off comes as exit poles paint a sharply divided picture.
08:51Some predict a tight contest,
08:54others give the BJP a clear edge and some even project a sweep.
08:59Today's Chanakya exit pole goes the furthest,
09:03predicting a massive 192 seats for the BJP.
09:06If that number holds,
09:08it signals nothing short of a political earthquake in Bengal.
09:12Because that would mean a perfect storm for the BJP.
09:20If exit polls are accurate even seat with less than 20% Muslim population swings to the BJP,
09:26across 19 states and 17 districts, pointing to an unprecedented consolidation.
09:32Factor 2 – Widespread voter deletion
09:35Maximum deletions have been observed in the TMC strongholds.
09:40North 24 Paraganas, a key battleground in Phase 2, saw the highest deletions of over 3.2 lakh voters.
09:48Across phases, lakhs of names were struck off.
09:51While 17.4 lakh names were deleted in Phase 1, 73.4 lakh deleted in 2nd phase, which was in
10:00TMC's turf.
10:01A factor the BJP's critics say could have influenced the outcome.
10:06Factor 3 – Women Voters Shift
10:09The BJP's promise of financial aid and focus on safety appears to have cut into the TMC's strongest base.
10:15Women Voters
10:17Long seen as Mamata's backbone
10:19Factor 4 – Anti-Incumbency
10:22After 15 years in power, signs of fatigue against Mamata Banerjee may have finally translated into votes.
10:29But the TMC is rejecting the narrative outright.
10:52As Bengal waits for counting day, the question is clear.
10:56Is this just noise before the verdict, or the signs of a historic political shift?
11:02Bureau Report, India Today.
11:06And all of that, viewers, only true if the numbers hold off at least today's Chanakya.
11:12That was the last to give out the exit polls yesterday, giving a clean sweep to the Bharatiya Janata Party
11:18in West Bengal.
11:19Many would suggest that even for the most celebrated sophologists, Bengal has proven to be their Waterloo.
11:25So, take it with a pinch of salt, if not a bag full of salt.
11:28With that, I want to quickly dip into the latest news break that is just coming in.
11:33Days after late-night drama in Kolkata by the TMC,
11:39Chawindu Adhikari also reaches Sakhawat Memorial School strongroom in Bhabani Pur.
11:46Chawindu Adhikari inspects the strongroom in South Kolkata,
11:50says that Mamata Banuji resorting to theatrics, TMC is about to lose, they are going out of power.
11:57It was not a land and not a concern for its little need.
12:03The EU has dropped my photos.
12:06The EU has taken so much information for making us so that we are not working.
12:11Now, we have found all the research on the social media in the morning,
12:34All right, let's continue to get reactions from the TMC as well.
12:38Right now, Srivendu Adhikari making his way to one of the strong rooms.
12:41So, optics, theatrics, whatever you might call it, continue from both sides.
12:46Till the time that last vote is counted, it is going to be a war of optics, both from the
12:51TMC and the BJP.
12:53I want to quickly cut across to Anirban, my colleague who is joining us.
12:56Anirban, why is Srivendu Adhikari now going to the same strong room?
13:05Well, Srivendu Adhikari has simply stated that he was there to assess the situation and how the things are going
13:13on inside.
13:14And also, he has clearly stated that right now Mamata Banerjee and her party is afraid of losing.
13:21That's why they are doing this kind of drama.
13:23This is the statement of Srivendu Adhikari as well.
13:26And right now, where I am standing here is the CEO West Bengal office, where...
13:38Okay, one second.
13:39We are going to quickly cut across to more news break, which Anirban was just taking us through.
13:44A high-pitched poll battle as is playing out in Bengal ahead of counting day.
13:50A three-member TMC delegation to meet the Bengal CEO.
13:53TMC had alleged EVM tampering in Kolkata.
13:56Bengal EC outrightly rejected the TMC's charge.
13:59The Bengal Election Commission says EVMs are safe, security top-notch.
14:03But now, you have a delegation, a three-member delegation of the TMC meeting the West Bengal CEO.
14:11Over to you, Anirban. What's the latest there?
14:17Well, right now, I am standing over here in the CEO West Bengal office, where we have seen a few
14:22minutes back,
14:23Firhad Hakim, who is the candidate of the Tribunal Congress from the Kolkata port,
14:28as well as Shashi Panja and another councillor, who is Ashim Bosu, who is coming here from Bhawanipur itself to
14:38have words with CEO West Bengal and to give their documentation to them.
14:42What we have learned so far is they are giving documentation and notice to CEO West Bengal regarding tomorrow's thing.
14:51And also, what we have learned is already that the repolling of the 15 booths, as well as more, are
14:58coming soon.
14:58So, however, right now, Trinamul Congress, as first stated by the BJP, as well, they are under pressure.
15:06And somehow, they are going to strong rooms, as well as now in CEO West Bengal.
15:12And what we have learned now is Shubhendu Adhikari also is going to come over here in CEO office to
15:20have awards with CEO and also to give their deputation as well.
15:24All right. Thank you for joining us, Anirban, my colleague, reporting right outside the CEO's office there, where you have
15:32both sides making a bayline.
15:34One alleging EVM tampering and the other one on around there, but pitched battle now on the streets of Kolkata.
15:41And you can clearly, you know, you can you you'll know that this is going to carry on at least
15:47till the 4th of May.
15:48I want to quickly cut across because lots going on in the last 24 hours, especially at the back of
15:53exit poll predictions.
15:54I'm joined right now by Rahul Verma, Fellow Center for Policy Research, Rajat Sethi, Political Analyst, Shikha Mukherjee, Political Commentator,
16:01Reju Datta and Spokesperson TMC.
16:04In the studio with me, Pradeep Bhandari, National Spokesperson BJP.
16:07Pradeep, let's begin with you.
16:09It's a war of optics, clearly, where West Bengal is concerned.
16:13You have grave allegations coming in from the TMC that has been alleging through and through that this is scientific
16:19rigging of the elections and now EVM tampering the latest charge.
16:23Well, I believe, Preeti, that the Trinamul Congress is looking for a losing narrative and they're exactly behaving like Rahul
16:31Gandhi has.
16:32Because yesterday, in fact, 48 hours back, the Trinamul Congress spokesperson who's on your panel said that the CRPF men
16:39had attacked an old man from Bengal and because of which he lost life.
16:44It was fact-checked. He had put an AI-generated video and later on the clarification was issued.
16:49So they lied. Historically, always they've lied.
16:52They went to the Calcutta High Court saying that certain central public PSU officials should not be deployed.
16:58Their petition was dismissed. Mamata Banerji went to the strong room.
17:02She did not find anything. They have not officially gone to the Calcutta High Court.
17:06Because if they believe that there is some amount of trampering taking place, the only authority which can direct the
17:12election commission is not a drama on the street, is not a dharna on the street.
17:16It is the Calcutta High Court.
17:18So my charge here is if the Trinamul Congress believes in the allegation of Trinamul Congress, why are they not
17:23going to the Calcutta High Court?
17:24Because they know this is only purely in order to motivate their cadre because even the TMC internal survey is
17:30suggesting they are losing Bengal.
17:32That is the only reality.
17:33And just another 10 seconds point.
17:35Please note what has happened.
17:3711 booths in Magrahat Paschim and 4 booths in Diamond Harbour.
17:42The complaints were filed with the Trinamul Congress candidate had put a tape so that the voter could not press
17:48the Bharati Janata Party button.
17:50That complaints were found out to be correct in certain booths and there is a repolling taking place.
17:54So the original rigors, the real rigors and the scientific rigors who try to keep the Bengal, people of Bengal
18:00in bhoi is the TMC.
18:02TMC is losing.
18:03Let me cut across to the TMC spokesperson, Riju Dutta joining me this evening.
18:08Riju, yesterday the charges that were made of EVM tampering, the EC said you were sent a mail.
18:15And then the TMC said why were calls not made?
18:19Why was it delivered on mail?
18:21But usually official information, Riju Dutta, is delivered on mail.
18:27First of all, let me say this.
18:29The entire country has witnessed for the last two months how the entire Indian state has acted against one woman,
18:36trying to somehow capture the state of West Bengal.
18:39But unfortunately, come 4th of May, the entire Indian state under this fascist regime of the BJP will lose.
18:46And post that, BJP will lose Delhi.
18:49Anyways, now what happened yesterday, if the election commission has given a mail and Trinamul Congress has said that, yes,
18:56there are people in the footage trying to sort out the postal ballots, that mail has gone to other political
19:02parties also.
19:04BJP also was not there.
19:05CPM was not there.
19:06Congress was not there.
19:08But there were people inside without the presence of any of the stakeholders and trying to sort out postal ballots.
19:16How is that possible?
19:17If Trinamul Congress is wrong, then other political parties who are also stakeholders in this election would have been present
19:25there.
19:25So this is the first lie.
19:27See, the election commission from deleting 91 lakh names of Bengalis have always peddled a narrative where they have tried
19:34to do a one-sided election.
19:35But at the end of the day, Bengal will speak for itself.
19:38You see the exit polls.
19:39You see the exit polls.
19:41Now, what is this exit polls are doing?
19:43The exit polls, see, I personally believe the pollsters also have a right to earn a living.
19:48There is no accountability, so they can just give numbers.
19:51And when a pollster's masquerading as political brokers become national spokespersons, then obviously you lose all kind of trust in
19:59exit polls and opinion polls.
20:00But coming to this also, this exit polls were done specifically for two reasons.
20:05Number one, so that the polling agents of the BJP go and go to the counting booths.
20:10And number two, keep the satta bhajar flowing.
20:13If every exit poll would have said at the moment soup, everybody would have taken the money out.
20:17Riju, Datta, on the exit polls in just about two minutes.
20:20But let's, you know, steer clear of making any personal jibes.
20:23No, no, no, personally, I did not take any names.
20:25I'm just, I've just stated the fact.
20:27Is it not a precedence?
20:28You have ten seconds, Pradeep, because I want to open up the panel.
20:30Well, if journalists become Rajya Sabha members from Trinamool Congress,
20:34if lawyers who are non-Bengalis are given Rajya Sabha from the Trinamool Congress who fought against the RG car
20:40rape and murder victims,
20:41the reality here is the TMC is anti-Bengali pro-Pancharwalas.
20:45Okay, okay, no.
20:47Okay, you know, once again, I would also, I would also, before we get on to it,
20:51I would, one second, Riju, Datta, number one, let me make two things very clear.
20:56Stay clear from all personal jibes, please, on my show, and B, at least on my show,
21:01please, stay clear of all communal slurs.
21:04I would not like it, and I would suggest even the viewers don't like it.
21:08So please, stay clear from both sides on this account.
21:12At least on my show, use it on other shows, I have no problem, it's your call.
21:14Having said that, I want to go across right now, and I want to bring in Shikha Mukherjee before that
21:18to maybe give us an understanding on what these numbers really suggest or don't suggest anything at all.
21:24Like I said, everything needs to be taken with a pinch, if not a fistful of salt.
21:30Shikha Mukherjee, I'm going to go to the poll of polls, and I will all in just about a minute,
21:33but I want you to take our viewers through on what it really suggests,
21:38because at one end, you have one poll which is predicting 192 for the BJP,
21:43that practically means, and I'll go to Rahul Verma the next,
21:47that the BJP has actually swept every seat which has a minority population less than 30%,
21:56which is astounding in terms of the Hindu consolidation that could have happened at the back of that.
22:02But what do these numbers really suggest to you, Shikha Mukherjee?
22:05Because you have one which came in yesterday, giving a sweep to the BJP,
22:09then you have another, which is Janmat, giving a sweep to the TMC,
22:13and then you have a bunch of a few right in the middle, which is practically predicting dead heat.
22:19You know, I think, Preeti, at this point, I'm very confused by how these pollsters have done their jobs,
22:30because for two reasons.
22:32One is that, you know, Pradeep Gupta, who's said that people were not speaking,
22:38people were not telling them how they had voted.
22:39So it kind of raises all kinds of questions on how these polls were done.
22:45The second thing is that there is rationality, and then there is absurdity.
22:54And if one is to believe these polls where 192 seats have gone to the BJP,
23:03one has to think that, and you look at the geography of these seats,
23:10then you look at the fact that all of us who have been here on the ground,
23:16looking at the situation over the months, have got it all wrong.
23:21We just don't know it.
23:23In other words, this is an SIR effect, which has delivered a verdict,
23:33which takes into account that not only is there a Hindu consolidation,
23:40but a Hindu consolidation on the back of a massive Muslim deletion.
23:48Muslim voters have been deleted in large numbers of,
23:52in very, very severe deletions in certain pockets, and elsewhere too.
23:58And then it ignores the fact that there have been about,
24:05in the first draft, about 60% of names that were deleted were also Hindus.
24:10I mean, and then there are all these women whose names have been deleted.
24:14It suggests that the Hindus have all voted without any exceptions for the BJP,
24:26that these deletions have been tailored in such a way that the BJP gets to win.
24:33And I'm making this illustration as a responsible journalist.
24:36How else can one predict this outcome?
24:39Okay. All right.
24:40So that's, you know, at the back of that.
24:42But stay with me.
24:42I want to quickly cut across to Rajat Sethi,
24:44and then I will bring in Rahul Verma.
24:46But Rajat, you know, you want to come in,
24:49because with what Shikha Mukherjee also said,
24:51our team has been number crunching.
24:53Now, in terms of the deletions bit,
24:55if out of 294 seats, Rajat, 158 seats have seen the maximum number of deletions of 150,
25:05sorry, 242 seats have seen maximum deletions,
25:08and out of which 158 were the ones which was won by Mamata Banerjee,
25:13as per at least with what we've been looking at in terms of just detailing and going through the data.
25:19Well, Preeti ji, Mamata Banerjee had won with a landslide.
25:23She almost had won three out of four seats during the previous election.
25:29So whichever way you want to beat the data,
25:31the data will speak whatever language you want it to speak.
25:34Also, with all respect to the journalists out there,
25:40the problem is when journalists start believing in anecdotes instead of statistics,
25:47they tend to fall for, you know, certain more vocal with certain constituents more,
25:54which are much more vocal getting over representation in their anecdotal data.
25:59They always miss out on the hard numbers, on those important one or two person swings,
26:06because there is no way anecdotes can capture that.
26:08And this is where over and over again,
26:10we have seen that statistics surveys is a science.
26:13It cannot be replaced by stories.
26:16And we fall for this.
26:18And election after election, I've sat with you, Preeti ji, for so many years.
26:22I mean, there is still a reason why you have exit polls
26:25and you have survey agencies go out and do surveys and not just go by stories.
26:29Therefore, my point is, it's an extremely close election,
26:32but even a 2% swing can actually result in much, much of a bigger swing
26:37in terms of the final vote share and the seat numbers and the BJP gains.
26:42My simple point is, one of the big sort of flags that you need to look for is the body
26:48language.
26:49The body language of the BJP versus the TMC workers will give you a solid hint as to where things
26:54are,
26:55just like how a body language in a cricket match gives you a lot of hints.
26:58Rajya, the irony of what you're saying, you yourself said,
27:01don't go by anecdotes, go by facts and figures, and then you're quoting body language.
27:06Again, I'm not, so what you're saying, see, let me qualify this.
27:11What was said is that we don't know why are these numbers getting reflected
27:15because we are hearing something else.
27:17I'm just trying to draw a contrast between that.
27:20At max, what you can do is you can just get a basic sense.
27:23Now the data is that, yes, the TMC workers, the leaders are looking a little tired,
27:27looking a little jaded.
27:28And, you know, you can put it, you can put it because they are fighting a way in battle.
27:34Rajya, I need to go into a break, but body language, and I'll come right back.
27:37And, you know, body language can be interpreted in multiple ways.
27:41I agree, I was just going to say that.
27:43Yeah, so I want to go into, okay, you know, what I'm going to do is,
27:48away from body language, away from anecdotal accounts,
27:51I'm going to go to a numbers man who is, Rahul is with us,
27:55and we're going to cut across to him.
27:57Just a little bit patience, you know, Rahul Verma.
28:01And let's take our viewers through the poll of polls in West Bengal
28:04that have caused quite a bit of flutter,
28:06where the BJP saying this is exactly what is going to happen,
28:09and when they say this is exactly what is going to happen,
28:12they say this is exactly what is going to happen, which is 192.
28:15You'll have a Reju Dutta who will say, look at Janmat, we are at 197,
28:19and you will have the BJP recording even lesser than what they did the last time,
28:23around of 77, coming down to 65.
28:26And then, you have pretty much dead heat predicted by some of the other pollsters,
28:32but most of them seemingly giving an edge to the BJP.
28:36Let's bring in, other than body language, other than anecdotal evidence,
28:40Rahul Verma, for a man who knows numbers better than all of us, I can say,
28:44or maybe Pradeep when he used to be a sophologist,
28:46but who, at least for now, what would you suggest?
28:51Because if 192 for the BJP is to go by Rahul Verma,
28:56if, you know, me and my team have been doing the math,
28:59it would suggest that every seat under 30% of minority population
29:04has been swept by the BJP,
29:06which is Hindu consolidation at a level which has been unprecedented
29:10for the BJP to achieve in West Bengal.
29:12On the other account, you have a Janmat, which is giving 197 to the TMC.
29:19Which number do you think is most plausible?
29:21Let me throw in another number in the fix,
29:23which is the lack of a number by Axis, my India,
29:26because they are saying nobody's speaking to us.
29:29That means they are saying 8 out of 10 are not speaking.
29:33Thank you, Vriti.
29:34Allow me a couple of minutes.
29:36I won't take more.
29:37The first point is, while I work with numbers,
29:41I am also appreciative of body language,
29:45anecdotes and ground reportage.
29:48I think all of them help in making sense of numbers.
29:51So I don't underestimate any other method of data collection.
29:55Two, what I want to clearly say,
29:58as someone who teaches election polling and voting behavior,
30:01I bow my head in shame about these poll numbers,
30:05not because of what they're projecting.
30:07And I think media should also be, including all channels,
30:13should be more introspective about what kind of polls
30:16they want to put on their channels.
30:18Any report that you put, right,
30:21you verify your sources, who's saying what.
30:24How do you not verify how these polls were done?
30:28How many samples were taken?
30:30Who they spoke to?
30:31I think that verification is very, very important.
30:35Rahul, I'm going to give you the time,
30:37but I just want to tell our viewers,
30:38for example, if you look at today's Chanakya,
30:40they haven't given their sample size.
30:42They have not given gender breakup.
30:44They haven't also given the districts.
30:46Over to you, Rahul.
30:47So those are very basic minimum things that are required, right?
30:52The third point, which is important,
30:55because we are interested in understanding these numbers,
30:59political earthquake in Bengal begins at 140, 145 seats for BJP.
31:05That's like 192 is something what you rightly said.
31:12BJP will have to win every seat at 30% under Muslim 30%.
31:19So that's a very, very tall order.
31:21I think even BJP getting 150, 160 is extremely difficult,
31:27but there is a narrow corridor which is available to them, right?
31:31And in some ways, what you were saying yesterday,
31:34that it would need a perfect storm,
31:36everything coming together for BJP to able to win 150, 160.
31:42And so that possibility remains, right?
31:45Can BJP climb up to 190?
31:47No one can rule this out,
31:48but that's a very, very less likely scenario, right?
31:52That's what I'm saying.
31:53And the perfect storm comes in some ways,
31:57I think Shikhaji pointing out about SIR,
31:59but let's not also exaggerate the effect of SIR.
32:02Each of these factors are contributing.
32:05SIR, heavy security measures,
32:08ensuring that BJP voters can go out and vote,
32:11ensuring that any ruling party in India,
32:14which dominates, uses sort of like means to get extra votes.
32:20This is not just about TMC.
32:21All parties in their strongholds do this.
32:23And denying that would not be knowing how elections happen in India.
32:28Then I think there is a level of anti-incumbency,
32:31and all of you reported on that.
32:33Even if that anti-incumbency is not against Mantab Energy,
32:38there is anti-incumbency against the Trinamul cadres on the ground,
32:41especially their district units and how they interfere in everyday life.
32:46So, and then finally,
32:47I think BJP ran a much, much better campaign compared to 2021.
32:51Now, this is not to say this was a perfect campaign,
32:53but they made lesser mistakes,
32:55which gave lesser chances to TMC to mount a challenge on them.
32:59All of this, if it clicks together,
33:02only then you will see BJP going above the majority mark.
33:06And that is what, like, a realistic hope for BJP is going to be.
33:11Of course, all political parties beat their chest that they will sweep, right?
33:15No one is going to say, oh, we will win somehow, right?
33:19And that's the job of political parties.
33:20That's how they are going to react till May 4th.
33:24And all of this, like,
33:26so the political posturing which is happening in Bengal,
33:30it's not started like yesterday, right?
33:33Especially in this round of election,
33:35there is a trust deficit between opposition parties
33:38and the Election Commission of India.
33:40And it has not helped the matters
33:42with how things have progressed on SIR.
33:44And then the war of words is actually just going to exceed.
33:49And my worry is basically how things will be on after May 4th.
33:55And do we have enough security mechanism in place to handle that?
33:59Because what one is really, you know, fearing, I would think,
34:04is that even though the political violence still now
34:07has been minimal to what has been in the past,
34:11but it is the post-poll political violence which one fears.
34:15I want to...
34:16Okay, just stay on with me.
34:18Lots of news break happening.
34:19The TMC has moved the Supreme Court.
34:21Why? We will just find out.
34:23TMC moves the Supreme Court,
34:25challenging the Election Commission of India's decision
34:27to appoint only central government PSU employees
34:31as counting supervisors in West Bengal elections.
34:34The plea has been filed.
34:36Yesterday's order of Calcutta High Court
34:39refusing to give them relief.
34:41So the TMC is going all out,
34:45has moved the Supreme Court,
34:47challenging the Election Commission of India's decision
34:50to appoint only central government PSU employees
34:53as counting supervisors in West Bengal elections.
34:57The EC will say it is our prerogative on who we appoint.
35:02The TMC has been taking on the Election Commission
35:05where they allege it's scientific rigging
35:08through changes of bureaucracy in West Bengal
35:10right before elections.
35:12Then observers that have been bought in largely
35:14from BJP-run states
35:16and now appointing counting supervisors
35:20in West Bengal elections
35:23only from central government and PSU employees.
35:26I want to go back, you know, to our panelists
35:28and all of you will get two minutes time
35:30to put your points forward this time around
35:32because all of you had a freeway before this.
35:35So I want to begin with the BJP spokesperson.
35:39The latest news coming in, Pradeep.
35:41The TMC has now approached
35:44the top court of the country.
35:45One thing, Pradeep, I would think
35:47and reckon you will give to the TMC.
35:50It's unlike any other party
35:52that you have dealt with
35:53where elections are concerned.
35:54They are not ceding an inch.
35:56They are taking you on
35:57day by day, hour by hour,
36:00optics by optics.
36:01Nothing, they're not taking us on.
36:03They're just trying to motivate their cadre.
36:05And I believe now the matter in the Supreme Court,
36:07the Supreme Court is wise enough to judge it.
36:09But let me just state certain data.
36:11Data number one,
36:1228 percentage swing was achieved
36:14by the Bharati Janata Party
36:15in a gap of five years.
36:17Unheard in the history of Bengal election.
36:19Not done by any political party in five years.
36:22We just need a four percentage swing
36:24in order to win this election.
36:25Easily possible with a massive ante-incumbency.
36:28Fact number two, data number two.
36:30Bengal elections, whenever it has voted
36:32with voting percentage
36:33more than four, four and a half percentage,
36:35it has always voted out the incumbent.
36:38This time the voting percentage
36:39has increased by eight percentage.
36:41If you remove the SIR base effects,
36:43still it's a four and a half,
36:44five percentage increase.
36:46So for 50 years,
36:47it has always voted out the incumbent.
36:49Fact number two, data number two.
36:50Data number three,
36:51which is a very important data.
36:53Even in constituencies
36:54which have 30 percentage Muslim population,
36:56even if there is a 70 percentage
36:58Bengali Hindu vote towards
36:59the Bharatiya Jantar Party
37:00with a base vote of 38.6 percentage,
37:03we are looking at a landslide
37:04in a clean majority.
37:06Data number four,
37:07historically analysts
37:08have always looked at
37:09quote unquote impossibles
37:10in elections
37:11which Prime Minister Narendra Modi
37:12has challenged and defeated.
37:14It was considered impossible
37:15for the BJP
37:16to come to power in 2014.
37:18Double the vote share
37:19what it was in 2009.
37:20We came with full majority.
37:21It was considered impossible
37:22for the BJP
37:23to touch a vote share
37:24of 50 percent in Uttar Pradesh.
37:25We did that earlier.
37:27We were not even a 30 percentage party.
37:29It was considered impossible
37:30for the Bharatiya Jantar Party
37:31in Tripura
37:32to reach a vote share
37:33of 45 percentage.
37:34We crossed 45 percentage
37:35from earlier being
37:36a single digit vote share.
37:38So this is possible.
37:39On the SIR part,
37:40it's just not the seats
37:41where the Trinamool Congress
37:42has won,
37:43but in fact,
37:44seats where the BJP
37:44also has won
37:45has seen proportionate deletion.
37:47For example,
37:48a seat like Gaigata,
37:49the BJP won
37:50with a margin of 9,603
37:51and the voter deletion
37:53was 19,638.
37:54So it's not to do with SIR.
37:56In an anti-incumbency election
37:57where there is wave
37:58against the incumbent,
38:00you will see
38:00you should stop
38:01looking at elections linearly.
38:03Look at it as a wave election
38:04like you are looking
38:05in Tamil Nadu.
38:06We believe it's
38:06a anti-incumbency
38:07against the PNC.
38:08Okay, your time is up.
38:09Just one correction,
38:10Pradeep,
38:11it's been an increase
38:12if you factor in the SIR,
38:13a 3.86% increase
38:15in voting turnout.
38:16That's the figure.
38:17That's what I'm saying.
38:17Not a 5%.
38:18It's all I'm saying.
38:19Depends.
38:19No, 40 lakh votes
38:20is the difference
38:21between the BJP and the PNC.
38:22I'm giving you the figure
38:22which is the proportional increase.
38:24Depends on how much
38:25you take the SIR impact test.
38:26It is subjective.
38:27You and I can differ on that.
38:27In terms of deletion,
38:28in terms of the voting percentage,
38:30okay, it's not an argument.
38:30Okay, fine.
38:31I'm just saying
38:31the basic effect is subjective.
38:32I want to bring in Riju Datta.
38:34Two minutes, Riju Datta.
38:35Your time starts now.
38:37The question, of course,
38:38is, Riju Datta,
38:39that you had the BJP
38:41from 2016
38:42jump to 2021
38:44by a 28%.
38:45The BJP achieved to do that.
38:48In 2006,
38:49the left had 50%
38:50of the vote share
38:51in West Bengal.
38:522011,
38:53it fell by 9%
38:54to 41%.
38:56The unachievable
38:57can also happen,
38:58Riju Datta.
38:59No, anything can happen,
39:00but fact number one,
39:02data number one,
39:03that BJP increased
39:04their vote share
39:05from 2016 to 2021
39:07by cutting into
39:08the vote share
39:08of the Congress
39:09and the CPM.
39:10If you see the data
39:11from 16, 21 and 26
39:13or 24,
39:14Trinomul Congress
39:15has always held
39:16their vote share
39:17percentage of
39:18hovering around 50%,
39:19which is 48% to 49%.
39:21Number one.
39:22Number two,
39:24Hindu consolidation
39:26can happen,
39:27but states like
39:28Bengal and Tamil Nadu,
39:30the Bengalis
39:31and the Hindus
39:32of Bengal and Tamil Nadu
39:33do not believe
39:34in the Hindutva
39:35of the BJP.
39:36We are secular
39:37and that is why
39:38BJP will never come
39:39in power in Bengal
39:40or Tamil Nadu
39:41because here
39:42we do not believe
39:43in the concept
39:43of Hindutva.
39:44Number two.
39:45Number three,
39:46body language experts,
39:48clairvines,
39:50psychics,
39:51reporters,
39:52journalists,
39:52people sitting
39:53in AC rooms
39:53in Latians,
39:54Delhi,
39:55coming for two days
39:56to roam around
39:56as political tourists
39:57with 10 people
39:58to do a survey
39:59do not know Bengal.
40:00The only four people
40:01who have got
40:02the actual survey
40:02of Bengal are
40:03Mahmouda Banerji,
40:04Abhishek Banerji,
40:05Shubendu,
40:05Odikari,
40:06Shomik Bhattachaj
40:06because they have
40:07the largest at stake here
40:09and they will not
40:10tell you their numbers
40:10because they are
40:11crunching those numbers.
40:13My bet is on the only person
40:15who knows the pulse
40:16of Bengal more than
40:17even the Prime Minister
40:18of India in terms of Bengal
40:19that is Mahmouda Banerji
40:20and she has given
40:21her number yesterday
40:22which is 226 plus
40:23and I believe her.
40:25Mr. Verma said
40:26a very important thing,
40:27Rahul Verma,
40:28that the anti-incumbency
40:29which is there
40:30on the ground
40:30is against the local leaders.
40:32There is no anti-incumbency
40:33against Mahmouda Banerji
40:34or Abhishek Banerji
40:34and yes,
40:35there are some local leaders
40:37who are responsible
40:37for this anti-incumbency
40:39at the very local level
40:40which will not reflect
40:43in the electoral rolls.
40:44Last but not the least,
40:47everybody is entitled
40:48to their own opinion
40:49and again I will say this,
40:51the only person
40:52who knows what is happening
40:53in Bengal
40:54or what will happen
40:55in Bengal is Mahmouda Banerji
40:56and Mahmouda Banerji
40:57will come with a majority
40:58and take oath
40:59as the fourth consecutive
41:00chief minister of West Bengal.
41:01Okay, your time is up.
41:02I have three more guests.
41:03Each of you will get
41:04two minutes each
41:05over to Rajat Sethi.
41:06Make your point, Rajat.
41:09See, again,
41:11you know,
41:11there is no space
41:12for any more political campaigning.
41:14The electoral rolls
41:15are locked
41:16and sealed
41:17by the election commission.
41:18Therefore,
41:19we should just take
41:19a sigh of relief
41:21that the heavily contested election
41:22has actually come to a pause.
41:24We can go back
41:25and try and analyze it
41:26in a dispassionate manner.
41:27There were certain
41:28very interesting
41:29sort of strategies
41:30that Mamata Banerji
41:32kept on deploying
41:33because there was
41:33a very good campaign
41:35that was unleashed
41:36by the BJP.
41:36BJP did a lot of
41:37interesting experiments
41:38as well.
41:39In 2021,
41:40you had like
41:40Kalash, Vijayavargia
41:41and those kind of
41:42Hindi-speaking people
41:43who were dominating
41:44the airwaves.
41:45This time,
41:45they went completely local.
41:46They empowered the workers.
41:48They empowered the intelligentsia
41:49within the BJP's bench strength.
41:52They exploited it
41:53to the hilt
41:53and therefore,
41:54I believe the election
41:55is going to be decided
41:56in the presidency seats
41:57if and if
41:58it is the middle class,
42:00the center of gravity
42:02of the Bengali politics.
42:03If that shifts,
42:05then you will see
42:06a lot of changes
42:07all around the rural belts
42:09in the hinterlands
42:10of West Bengal.
42:11All of that will come over
42:12and BJP will cross over.
42:13But if,
42:14you know,
42:15the middle class Bengali
42:16voters in and around
42:17this area,
42:18if they do not switch,
42:19they still believe
42:20that BJP is still not
42:21soaked into the Bengali cultures,
42:23then you will see
42:24a status quo
42:25sort of an approach
42:25with a reduced mandate
42:26from Amitabh Banerjee.
42:28That much I can say.
42:29But beyond that,
42:30it is just kite flying.
42:31Nobody has the data,
42:33even the exit polls,
42:34the kind of strategy
42:35that they deploy.
42:36Exit poll
42:36necessarily has to mean
42:37polls where you have
42:39actually voted.
42:40I mean,
42:40with this intense policing
42:42and central paramilitary policing,
42:44it is very hard
42:45to get voters
42:46out of the polling station
42:47and immediately ask
42:48those questions.
42:48So I will hold on
42:49to what exit polls have said
42:51and allow the verdict
42:52to open out
42:53unless on both the sides
42:54we should not take
42:54very passionate positions
42:55and allow the voters
42:57a breathing space
42:59over this weekend.
43:01Fair point.
43:01Two minutes.
43:02Shikha Mukherjee,
43:03over to you.
43:04And then to Rahul Verma.
43:11The polling percentages,
43:14the way in which
43:16people turned out,
43:17and then you have
43:18this 142 seats,
43:23Mamata Banerjee's stronghold.
43:25BJP strike rate there
43:27in 2021 was,
43:29what,
43:30out of 142,
43:31they won only 18 seats.
43:34And in my estimate,
43:36there is a vulnerability
43:37in about another eight seats.
43:39So this is where
43:42the BJP needs
43:43to make the breakthrough
43:44if it wants to reach
43:46190,
43:47even if it wants
43:49to reach the halfway.
43:50So am I seeing
43:52that in South Bengal,
43:54in all of these places,
43:56there is this
43:58massive
44:00groundswell
44:02of
44:03approval,
44:05faith,
44:10and
44:11a kind of
44:16support for the BJP,
44:18which
44:18will overwhelm
44:20the BJP,
44:21the Trinomal's
44:24roots,
44:25which will sort of
44:26sweep the Trinomal
44:27out of office.
44:28I really don't see it.
44:30And about the
44:31middle-class vote,
44:33as a middle-class
44:34person,
44:34I can tell you that
44:35the most astonishing
44:38conversations have
44:39happened between
44:40the 29th and now,
44:42when people I know
44:44with real rancor
44:46against the
44:47Trinomal Congress
44:48have actually
44:49turned around and said,
44:50this time we are not
44:51doing this.
44:52We don't like it.
44:53We don't like the BJP.
44:55I am amazed
44:57at how
44:57people are
44:59reacting to the
45:00fact that they
45:01don't,
45:01they're talking about
45:02how they don't
45:03like the BJP.
45:05Right.
45:05I want to just give
45:06quick time
45:07to Rahul as well.
45:09Rahul,
45:09over to you.
45:10Thank you,
45:11Preeti.
45:11So,
45:12couple of points.
45:13First,
45:14I think
45:14Bengal has been
45:15historically hard
45:17for pollsters.
45:18There has been
45:19high non-response
45:20rate.
45:22most of the
45:23polling agencies
45:23may still have
45:24been able to
45:25do surveys
45:26because most
45:26of them do
45:27telephonic surveys.
45:28The problem
45:29with telephonic
45:30surveys are that
45:31there is already
45:3170 to 80%
45:32non-response rate.
45:34That's why they
45:34are much more
45:35likely to be,
45:36like,
45:36they are informative,
45:37but getting
45:38precise estimates
45:39is always hard
45:40in telephonic
45:40surveys.
45:41The second
45:42point,
45:42which is like
45:44for BJP
45:44to be in
45:45contention,
45:46they have to
45:47basically win
45:48in phase one,
45:49which was their
45:50stronghold,
45:50get somewhere
45:5275 to 90
45:53seats.
45:54Last time,
45:54they had 59.
45:55They can't go
45:56beyond that
45:57because
45:57districts are
46:00not favorable
46:00to them.
46:01And in the
46:02second phase,
46:03they have to
46:03do somewhere
46:04around 55 to
46:0570 seats
46:06to be in
46:06contention.
46:07This is the
46:07arithmetic.
46:08Beyond that,
46:09it's basically
46:10bonus, right?
46:11The third
46:12thing is
46:13basically,
46:13which is very
46:15important for me,
46:1690% turnout
46:17rate is
46:18worrying for me.
46:19Worrying because
46:20this signals
46:21that society
46:22is highly
46:23politicized,
46:24hyper-polarized,
46:25and fully
46:26mobilized.
46:27Once you get
46:28this kind of
46:28turnout level,
46:2985, 87,
46:31I don't know
46:32that number,
46:33but the stakes
46:34become so much
46:35high that if
46:36I don't turn
46:37out for my
46:38own party,
46:39there could be
46:40repercussions of
46:41it, then there
46:42are sort of
46:43bad signals.
46:44and that's
46:44what I hope
46:46from both
46:46BJP and
46:47Trinamur,
46:48that once the
46:49results are
46:49out on 4th,
46:50they bow down
46:51to public
46:52verdict and
46:53remain calm.
46:54All right,
46:55let's all
46:55remain calm
46:56till then.
46:56Riju Dutta,
46:57I know you're
46:58shaking your
46:58finger, but I
46:59have no time.
46:59Let's all
47:00remain calm
47:00till the 4th
47:01and let the
47:02ballots speak.
47:04Thank you all
47:04for joining us.
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