Raghav Chadha, 6 AAP Rajya Sabha MPs quit party; Decoding what drove Tamil Nadu's record voter turnout

India Today

Seven Aam Aadmi Party Rajya Sabha members, including Raghav Chadha, have officially merged with the Bharatiya Janata Party in New Delhi. This move represents a two-thirds majority of the party's strength in the Upper House, bypassing the anti-defection law.

Transcript

00:01Hello and welcome. Good evening. You're watching Super 6 here on India Today.

00:04I'm Akshita Nandakopal and yes, we're going to be getting you the biggest talking point of this hour.

00:09Raghav Chadha dropping a bomb on our Madhmi party.

00:13Not just quitting the party and joining the BJP, but taking along with him a handful of our Rajasabha MPs.

00:20What is the impact of this on the Madhmi party?

00:22What's been the political fight that's broken out? I'll get you all those details.

00:25But also coming up on this edition of Super 6, we're going to be talking about the water turnout of

00:31Tamil Nadu.

00:31Is it historic? Is it unprecedented? Or just a healthy water turnout?

00:37Are we reading too much into the data? We're going to be breaking that down for you with our panelists.

00:41We'll begin with the headlines as always.

00:47Biggest political quake in the national capital.

00:50Raghav Chadha leads exodus from AARP.

00:527 AARP Rajasabha MPs dumped Kejriwal.

00:55Raghav Chadha along with Ashok Mittal and Sandeep Patak joined BJP.

00:59AARP brands turncoats as traitors.

01:07Home Minister Amit Shah versus Mamta war awards in pole-bound Bengal.

01:11Mamta's big Delhi after Bengal war cry says,

01:14After winning Bengal, I'm coming for Delhi.

01:16Home Minister Amit Shah mocks says there's nothing left for her in Bengal.

01:21Home Minister Amit Shah mocks says there's nothing left for her in Bengal.

01:23Delhi will say there's nothing left for her in Bengal.

01:24I'll give you what I'm going to say first.

01:29Prime Minister Modi rallies for Abhaya's mother in North 24 Paragana's rally.

01:33Share stage with RG Kaur, victim's mother, who is the BJP candidate from Panihati's seat.

01:39Modi slams.

01:40Mamta says mother lost her baby under TMC, Jangaraj.

02:07Prime Minister Modi visits Ganga Ghat in pole-bound Kolkata.

02:11takes a boat ride across the Hooghly River, says the timeless spirit of civilisation in Ganga

02:17and says Ganga holds special place for Bengal.

02:25Explosive revelations in Delhi.

02:27Rape and murder.

02:28Probe shows killer is a psychopath.

02:31Probe reveals accused was violent, a gambling addict.

02:34Rahul Meena raped and murdered an IRS officer's daughter in the heart of Delhi.

02:44And in international headlines, amid havoc in the strait of Ormuz,

02:48U.S. Secretary of War criticizes non-participation of NATO allies.

02:51Hegseth says being an ally is a two-way street, and this should not be America's fight alone.

03:09We begin with the big breaking news that's coming from the national capital.

03:13Raghav Chadha has officially joined the BJP.

03:17Welcomed by the BJP president, Nitin Nabeel, at the BJP headquarters.

03:20He's now officially been saffronized.

03:24And it's not just Raghav Chadha, along with him was Sandeep Patak and Ashok Mittal,

03:28who, along with Raghav Chadha, reached the BJP headquarters and joined the BJP.

03:32In all, seven ARP Rajasabha MPs, that's two-thirds of ARP's Rajasabha strength, has joined over now.

03:40Many of them have quit the party, three of them officially joining the BJP.

03:45How has the Ahmad B party chosen to react?

03:47They're claiming that this is Operation Lotus.

03:50Manish Sisodia, in the latest, has also reacted, saying that they've bowed down,

03:55these Rajasabha leaders have bowed down before the BJP

03:58and betrayed the people of Punjab due to their personal compulsions.

04:03ARP has been suggesting that it's because of agency's pressure

04:06and Operation Lotus that has been successful in grabbing their leaders in the Rajasabha.

04:13Shivani Sharma is joining us with more details on the Shivani,

04:16officially inducted into the BJP now.

04:20You know, at this point, three ARP Rajasabha MPs,

04:24Raghav Chadha, Sandeep Patak and Mittal, have joined the BJP.

04:28What about the rest, Shivani?

04:29Are they expected to officially join the BJP as well?

04:35Akhita, what we understand from the press conference and the statement that was being made by Raghav Chadha

04:40while he was announcing his merger with the BJP,

04:43he was very clear that all the seven MPs,

04:46that happens to be the two-third of the majority of the ten MPs of the Ahmad B party,

04:51they are now leaving the Ahmad B party and merging themselves with the BJP.

04:55So if that technically means that all these seven will be a part of the BJP

04:59as they are already merging with the BJP,

05:01we are not saying they have joined the BJP,

05:04but they are merging themselves with the BJP.

05:07That automatically means that they will be a part of the BJP now.

05:11Three of them who were here when they were announcing this development,

05:16they are already in the BJP headquarters,

05:18they have already met Nitin Nabi, the president of the BJP,

05:21and the rest of them, they are sending their reactions.

05:25We have seen a reaction from Swati Malibal who says that she is returning to Delhi today

05:30because she is out on parliamentary board duty.

05:36So she also is now criticising Ahmad B party, calling the party of criminals,

05:42and though she has not clearly said that she is a part of the BJP,

05:46but what the experts believe, that when the merger takes place,

05:50automatically these seven MPs of the Ahmad B party will be a part of the BJP now.

05:54So we are still waiting for a formal announcement from the BJP side,

05:57though a press conference or a bite was expected a short while ago,

06:01but things are quite unexpected.

06:03Raghav Chhada did speak, Shivani,

06:04and so let's play out some of those highlights for our viewers as well,

06:07of when Raghav Chhada officially made the announcement

06:10that he was quitting the Ahmad B party and joining the BJP.

06:14Listen in to some of those highlights.

06:16Yes, Raja Sabha, Raja Sabha में आम आद्मी पार्टी के दस सांसद हैं,

06:23और दो तिहाई से ज्यादा सांसद इस मुहीम में हमारे साथ हैं,

06:29उन्होंने हस्ताक्षर भी कर दी हैं,

06:32और आज सुभा हमने चेर्मेन Raja Sabha को तमाम डॉक्युमेंटेशन,

06:38जो कागजी कारवाई होती है,

06:50मैं आपको इसकी पूरी सूची अभी उपलप्त करा देंगे,

06:53इसमें से तीन लोग तो आपके सामने बैठे हैं,

06:56इसकी अतिरीक्त,

06:59वर्ल्ड क्लास क्रिकेटर हरभजन सिंग है,

07:03राजेंदर गुपता जी है,

07:05विकरम सहनी जी है,

07:07स्वाती मालिवाल जी है,

07:08और हम तीन तो आपके सामने बैठे हैं,

07:11अशोग जी, संदीब जी और मैंको स्वायम,

07:13हमने ये डिसाइड किया,

07:15देट वी,

07:16देट टू थर्ड मेंबर्स ऑफ पार्लिमेंट ऑफ ती,

07:19बिलॉंगिंग तो दी आम आदमी पार्टी इन राज्यसभा,

07:23exercise the provisions of the constitution of India,

07:27and merge ourselves with the BJP,

07:29हम BJP में विलाय करते हैं,

07:31पिछले बारा सालों में भारती जन्ता पार्टी की केंदर की सरकार,

07:37मानिये प्रधान मंतरी नरेंदर मोदी जी के नितरित्व में जो सरकार चल रही है,

07:40उसने कई मजबूत ऐसे फैसले लिये,

07:43जो आज से पहले नेता फैसले लेने से शायद डरते थे,

07:46चाये वो आतंकवाद की जड़े उखार कर फेकना हो,

07:50या भारत को विश्व की top economies में लाना हो,

07:53और इस नितरित्व पे जन्ता ने एक बार नहीं, दो बार नहीं, तीन-तीन बार मोः लगाई है,

08:01हम सब अपने आपको स्वभागेशाली महसूस कर रहे हैं,

08:04कि हम मान्य प्रधान मंत्री नरेंदर मोदी जी की leadership में,

08:07और ग्रह मंत्री अमिच शाजी की संकल्ब शक्ती के साथ जुड़कर,

08:12बिना रुके और बिना ठके देश के लिए काम करेंगे,

08:16और जिन लोगों के मन में थोड़ी पीडा थी, दुख था,

08:20कि मैं बतौर एक सांसच जो ओडिनरी सिटिजन्स के ओडिनरी इशूस को पालिमें उठा रहा था,

08:28मैं शायद नहीं उठा पाऊंगा क्यूंकि मेरी अपनी पार्टी ने मेरी आवास बंद कर दी थी,

08:33मैं उन्हें भी कहना चाहता हूं कि आप चिंता मत करिये,

08:36मैं उसी कमिट्मेंट, उसी जोश और उसी एनरजी के साथ,

08:39आपके तमाम मुद्दे उठाता रहूंगा,

08:42Jai Hind.

09:07See, Akshita, we all know what was brewing inside the Amadmi Party when it comes to being unhappy

09:13and that discontent that was brewing inside the party,

09:19starting from Swati Malewal to Raghav Chadda when he was not seen in important events of the Amadmi Party,

09:25when he was removed from the post of deputy leader of the Rajya Sabha and he kept quiet,

09:31he justified that, he was not there when important events were happening,

09:37when Arvind Kejriwal was coming out of jail, he was not there to celebrate.

09:41So there were indications, certainly Akshita, but when it comes to the number of seven MPs,

09:45certainly it has been a plan well executed, well thought of,

09:51not only due to the discontent of these members of the Rajya Sabha of the Amadmi Party,

09:57but also looking ahead because, you know, we know that BJP plans ahead

10:01and next year is the time when Punjab will be witnessing the assembly elections

10:05and most of these MPs who have quit our Amadmi Party to join the BJP,

10:09to be a part of the BJP, come from Punjab,

10:13be it Raghav Chadda who was given the responsibility and then he worked there,

10:17be it Sandeep Pathak who comes from Punjab,

10:20be it the other leaders who have been a part of important roles they played in Punjab.

10:26So certainly this can be a well planned, a well thought of negotiation that took place

10:32between the Amadmi Party's discontented leaders and also the BJP leadership.

10:38So we still have to explore what happens to be in Chanakia.

10:41The likes of Raghav Chadda, of course, it was very, very clear,

10:44was discontent within the Amadmi Party,

10:46but there was always that question mark of how actually he'd switch over

10:50or for that matter leave the party without it attracting the anti-defection law.

10:55And let me break that down for our viewers as well.

10:57Shivani, just stay with us.

10:59How exactly has the Amadmi Party, or these MPs at least,

11:03by switching over in such large numbers ensured that they cannot be disqualified?

11:08We take you through the 1985 anti-defection law.

11:11Remember this was brought in after one leader, Gaya Lal from Haryana,

11:14back in 1967, switched three times within a single day from one party to another.

11:19And that's where the term Aya Ram, Gaya Ram comes from,

11:23the kind of politics of switching non-stop.

11:25And that's why the 1985 law came in.

11:28If you switch sides, you lose your seat under the anti-defection law.

11:31How do you ensure that doesn't happen?

11:33Is if two-thirds come together, and it's not just one person,

11:37two-thirds of the party's representation in parliament comes together and moves,

11:42then it's a legal merger, not defection.

11:45Which is why Raghav Chadha also in the press conference when he spoke,

11:48said we're merging with the BJP.

11:51That's not the party merging, but two-thirds of our Rajasabha MPs who are merging.

11:55So automatically, they then become representatives of the BJP in Rajasabha.

12:00So therefore, a boost for the BJP's numbers in Rajasabha as well.

12:03So if you have these two-third number moving,

12:07there's no disqualification and full protection.

12:10So what Raghav Chadha and gang have done is essentially ensured

12:13that the Armagbi party cannot challenge this move legally.

12:16They cannot go to the court and challenge this,

12:19because you've got two-thirds of them moving together.

12:22The Armagbi party has claimed that this has happened as a result

12:25of what they call as Operation Lotus,

12:27Hinting at the fact that some of these leaders also faced agency's heat,

12:32including Mr. Ashok Mittal, who was there at the BJP headquarters.

12:35He was raided just a couple of days ago.

12:36And that's what the Armagbi party is drawing a link to,

12:39suggesting that it is because of agency's pressure that they've switched over.

12:44The Armagbi party has done.

12:52I am operation Lotus I am ghatia Raja Niti का खेल

12:59और पज्जाब के भगवंत मान सरकार के अच्छे कामों को रोकने का शर्यंत

13:08कि बड़े पैमाने पर शुरू हो गया है

13:14अक्सर मैं पहले भी कहना होंदा सिगा कि एज़ी बीजेपी है

13:20इधी पंजाब नाल बिलकुल बंदी नी पंजाबीयन नाल बिलकुल बंदी नी कोई भी चीज हो जी जिदे पंजाबी खोश हो

13:28सकन

13:29ओव इमेजेटली उन्हों खराब करन दी कोशिश कर दें

13:33अग्जामपल दे मां ता जिदो आमादी पाटी सरकार बनी तैनने आडी अफ़ पैसा रोक्या

13:41उस्तों बाद इनने कोशिश कीती किसाड़े अमेलियानू कोई ग्रुप बनाके उन्हों मानता दे दिये उस्तों बाद किसानियन दोलन देविच जिदों

13:56मोदी जी नूँ यूटर्न मारना पै गया उस्तों बाद ये खार रखन लाग पंजाबना फिर बीबी एमबी ते हो

14:09अधा लग दा कि बीजेपी जडी है ओवो एथो जित्ता सक्दीनी पर पिक्रम बाजियां बहुत कर दे एक फोटोग्राफ नहीं

14:18नहीं फोटोग्राफ से हैं और मिस्टर सानी अन अधर MPs

14:23who have been hobnomming with the BJP leadership so issue is यह नहीं कि साथ MP चले गए दो इशु

14:31खड़े होई हैं कि बाकी के MLA कप जा रहे हैं

14:34Governor साहब should immediately ask the house in the house Bhagawanतमान to prove his majority because according to me he

14:43will not be able to prove his majority अपनी majority नहीं प्रूब कर सकेंगे

14:47और most probably Bhagawanतमान साहब ने भी अब हवा देखनी है क्योंकि वो भी संपर्क में अब तो वो कब

14:56जाते हैं यह देखने वाली बात है क्योंकि

14:58मसला तो सब्सक्राइब अब ऐसा क्यों बोल रहें कि भगवंतमान उनकी टच में हैं वो भी जा सकते हैं यह

15:03फैक्ट है जैसे यह फैक्ट था कि MP जाएंगे यह भी एक फैक्ट है आजा मेरे को फ्लीज इसमें नोट

15:10भी करो और कोट भी करो कि वो दिन दूर नहीं दिल्ली �

15:54जाके बचेगी

15:55And

15:55Well absolutely, look this has been in the case of Raghav Chadda in the making since February 2024.

16:06It was in February 2024 that Ragav Chadda you will recall had left the country and had gone to England

16:15and stayed there for several months.

16:16That is when he had got in contact with certain BJP leaders.

16:21And at that stage, it was becoming increasingly clear that Raghav Chadha, when he came back,

16:28his position within the Amatmi party was becoming increasingly distant from Arvind K. Jeeval.

16:35This was around the same time when Arvind K. Jeeval was arrested in the Delhi liquor scam.

16:40And there were reports that Raghav Chadha could also be interrogated, investigated by the enforcement director

16:46and other agencies.

16:48When Raghav Chadha was removed as the deputy leader of the Rajasava, it became very clear

16:55that matters were now reaching a point of no return.

16:59And that happened a few weeks ago.

17:01Interestingly, around the same time, a few days later, the person who replaced Raghav Chadha,

17:06Ashok Mittal, heads the lovely professional university, was raided by the ED along with

17:13some of his relatives.

17:14Today, when you saw Ashok Mittal, Raghav Chadha, and more surprisingly, Sandeep Pathak,

17:20who was seen to be even closer to Arvind K. Jeeval in recent times, it was clear that this

17:26operation was being planned for a while.

17:29We are told that among those involved in this was Captain Amrinder Singh, who, remember,

17:33was a congressman, switched to the BJP.

17:36Anil Baluni, who is the communications head and an MP of the BJP.

17:41And the aim was to first break the Aam Admi Party in Rajasava.

17:46The next step is likely to be to break the Aam Admi Party in Punjab.

17:50So this is a concerted attempt to, in a way, demoralize, diminish the Aam Admi Party and

17:57indeed the opposition.

17:58The Aam Admi Party in the context of Punjab, the opposition in general.

18:02We've seen it happen with the Shiv Sena, we've seen it happen with the NCP, now with the

18:06Aam Admi Party.

18:07So it's no surprise.

18:09Perhaps the speed with which it has happened might surprise a few, including me.

18:13But the belief is that this was in the making for quite a long while, Akshita.

18:18You've explained the strategy of how really the BJP had this going, Rajdeep.

18:23The question that will also come up, though, is why have so many members of parliament

18:28decided to ditch the Aam Admi Party?

18:30Raghav Chadda, yes.

18:32You know, many saw coming that he was going to very clearly leave the Aam Admi Party.

18:37You've mentioned Ashok Mittal as well.

18:39What about the rest, Rajdeep?

18:41Why have so many of them been disgruntled, chosen to ditch up?

18:45Look, there are two ways to look at it.

18:47One Akshita says that the Aam Admi Party, because it's become so centralized and revolves

18:52around Mr. Kejriwal's leadership, if you fall foul of Mr. Kejriwal's leadership, then

18:57it becomes very difficult for you to become part of his inner circle or have a voice within

19:01the party.

19:01Most parties are like that, Rajdeep.

19:04Yeah, but in the case of Armin Kejriwal, the fact is now he's been out of power in Delhi.

19:09Ever since he became out of power in Delhi and faces a tough election in Punjab, there's

19:14a belief that he is on a declining curve.

19:16Now, politics is about only one ism now.

19:19Like it or not, it's opportunism.

19:21I was just interviewing Yogendra Yadav, who said that Raghav Chhata was once his assistant,

19:25and he made an interesting point.

19:27Every individual has a right to leave a party if he or she doesn't like the way the party

19:31is functioning.

19:32But then when you go and merge with a party which you have consistently opposed, at least

19:38publicly, then there will be questions raised about the fact that are you simply a political

19:43opportunist with no morality at all?

19:45So I think what had happened within the Amatmi party, there was no ideological glue holding

19:50them together except for power.

19:52The fact was that many of these leaders had joined the Amatmi party or not Raghav, but

19:57some of the others, like the Ashok Mittals of the world, they were businessmen.

20:02These are businessmen who will join any political party who gives them a Rajya Sabha scene.

20:06I think the two names that stand out are Raghav himself, who was with Arvind Kejriwal right

20:12since the India Against Corruption days, and Sandeep Pathak, who was from IIT and had played

20:17an important role in the organizational build-up of the Amatmi party and therefore was seen

20:21to be very close to Arvind Kejriwal and even stood by Arvind Kejriwal when he had gone to

20:26jail.

20:26Why have these leaders left the Amatmi party?

20:29The only reason I can think is because of the way the Amatmi party is run, but also

20:34because of the way that there is the washing machine.

20:37Truth of the matter is, there were questions being raised over Raghav Chatta, particularly

20:40with the Delhi Jalboard alleged scam that had taken place when Raghav Chatta was vice chairman

20:46of the DJB.

20:48And there are questions also in the way elections during Punjab and Goa, there were apparently

20:54suggestions that there was a money trade, especially in Punjab.

20:58Now, you can call it, was the BJP therefore having something on some of these leaders, including

21:04some of the businessmen involved, or was it the fact that the way Arvind Kejriwal was accused

21:08of running it in a dictatorial manner?

21:10I think it's a bit of a mix of both.

21:13You know, the likes of Harbhajan Singh is what doesn't seem to completely add up here.

21:18Harbhajan Singh reportedly was very close to Bhagwat Maan, and not someone who seemed to

21:23be in the crosshairs of any political party, and yet here he is part of this two-third group,

21:28and so there are several other names like that, Rajdeep, that simply doesn't kind of

21:31add up.

21:32But overall, what do you think the impact of this is on the Amatmi party?

21:36Optics-wise, sure, you know, you had someone like Raghav Chatta, very vocal, very prominent

21:41face of the Amatmi party, no longer with the party or, you know, moving to the BJP, but

21:46overall, the fact that you've got two-thirds of ARP's Rajasabha MPs now out merging with

21:51the BJP, what's the political impact on the Amatmi party on Kejriwal?

21:55Look, I think the political impact will be considerable in terms of the fact that politics

22:00is about perception and optics, and the perception will be that the Amatmi party is imploding.

22:04The last time this happened was in 2014-15 to this extent.

22:08Since then, of course, from time to time, the Amatmi party has hemorrhaged.

22:12Many of its original leaders have left the party.

22:15So there will be question marks over the way the Amatmi party has been run.

22:19But there will also be question marks, Akshita, let's not forget.

22:22Has the Bharatiya Janata party become what's won?

22:25BJP leader himself told me, and I quoted it in my 2024 election book, the Bharati Janata party,

22:30the recruitment party.

22:32Are you willing to take anyone and everyone?

22:34In this context, because Punjab elections are eight months away, it might send out a

22:38very strong message that, look, the BJP is a party to be with ahead of those Punjab elections.

22:43And the Amatmi party is clearly on a very sticky wicket.

22:47So I think the messaging is designed at the moment, both nationally, to suggest that the

22:51opposition in general should be further demoralized.

22:54And we head towards what someone calls one nation, one party.

22:59And in the context of Punjab, to suggest that the Bhagawan Tman party is on the back foot

23:03and is going to lose.

23:04It will be interesting to see whether the BJP fights those elections in Punjab on their

23:08own, or do they go along with the Akhalis and form a formidable alliance in Punjab once

23:13again.

23:14So the picture is still.

23:16The next stage, the battle will shift from Delhi to Chandigarh.

23:19And we'll have to see how many of the Amatmi party MLAs now are ready to break away and

23:25join hands with the Raghav Chanda.

23:27And I think what's very, very clear is you're right, Rajdeep.

23:29It's all about opportunism in Indian politics.

23:32It's not the first time we've seen it and definitely not the last.

23:34But thank you very much, Rajdeep, for joining us with your analysis and perspective of what's

23:39playing out currently within the Amatmi party.

23:42Came as a huge surprise this afternoon when we were in the newsroom.

23:45Raghav Chanda seated there and started praising the BJP, the Bharatiya Janata party.

23:50And then that's when announced there's not just him, but two thirds of the AAP Rajasabha

23:55MPs who are switching over, merging essentially with the BJP.

24:00You're joining us here on Super 6 and I'm cutting straight across to an exclusive conversation

24:04with Home Minister Amit Shah.

24:06Thank you very much.

24:36Thank you very much.

25:06Thank you very much.

25:40foreign

26:08In this country, you have taken the infiltration, so you will deal with all the cars, so what kind of

26:13you will deal with Ghosped?

26:15I can deal with this in the jeep and not deal with it.

26:19After that, I will be quiet.

26:38right now about urban pockets of the fact that there's been a rise in chennai in the voting is

26:43that really the case now the percentage and this is why i keep saying the post sir you need to

26:48look

26:49at beyond just the percentage the numbers too what do i mean by that if you look at actually

26:53the vote percentage in chennai it went up but if you look at the number of voters that actually

26:59went down look at these numbers for instance of what happened in 2016 and then after that in 2016

27:05you had 39 uh lakh total voters the turnout was 24 lakh so that's about 61.2 percent this was

27:14chennai let me again reiterate that this is how chennai essentially voted now after that you had

27:20the vote percentage up in 2026 how much did it go up in 2026 you had it go up by

27:2623.5 percent

27:28and that's where everyone said that look chennai for the first time has come out in record numbers

27:32to vote but here's the catch the number of votes polled has actually decreased it's gone down to

27:3847,322 from 2021 in 2026 the percentage has gone up because of sir but actual number of votes polled

27:49this is the difference so 47,322 but let's also now look at the overall picture of tamirnadu

27:5885 percent when compared to 74 percent of 2021 is that actually reflecting in the numbers again i'm

28:05saying that percentage goes up because of sir what about the numbers of votes polled that's what

28:12actually tells you if you've seen a rise in the number of voting and if this is an unprecedented

28:16turnout or not so what we've done is we've broken it down 2006 to 2026 the number of voters what

28:22i want

28:23to show you is first that the electors kept going up it's come down to 5.73 crores post sir

28:29so from

28:306.29 in 2021 to 5.73 this is the sir impact of the electors what about the number of

28:37votes polled from

28:384.58 in 2021 it's gone up to 4.85 in 2026 if you look at the entire column here

28:45that's the highest number

28:46so far that's ever been registered does that mean this is a historic turnout in percentages yes because

28:52again you see 70 78 74 72 73 almost in 2021 it's reached 85 percent in 2026 it's that number

29:02that

29:02got everyone excited but if you look at the absolute change in the number of voters it's increased yes but

29:09it's increased by 27 lakh and is that normal you look at the column that we've pulled out for you

29:14from

29:142006 right up to 2021 you see that the numbers have always kind of increased every election in

29:20tamirnadu that number has gone up by 38 lakh by 61 lakh by 29 lakhs this time by 27 lakhs

29:27so if you look at

29:27it it's not really an unprecedented rise in every election in tamirnadu the number does go up and

29:33similarly it's gone up this time as well so yes it's a healthy voter turnout is it historic is it

29:41unprecedented unprecedented not really so is it indicative of a wave election again not really

29:47because even in the urban pockets like chennai as i showed you there has been a decrease in the number

29:53of votes pulled and ultimately you can only read so much into the water turnout it's about trends it's

29:59about who's chosen whom it doesn't necessarily mean that one side is gaining and one isn't but i want to

30:05take this across now to senior journalists joining us from chennai mr n ram is on this broadcast a

30:11veteran journalist who's tracked tamirnadu politics for decades mr ram thank you very much for joining

30:16us here on india today i think 24 hours on we have a clearer picture of what the water turnout

30:22actually

30:22looks like and so while i won't use words like unprecedented or historic it's very much a very

30:28healthy turnout and that's often interpreted as an anti-incumbency turnout what do you think sir

30:35yeah it is a healthy turnout and i'm pleased that people turned out in these numbers but as you say

30:42you've avoided the word historic i think that's correct because this is in line with increases

30:49over the over the period 2006 to now the hindu has calculated that if the electorate had remained

30:57as it was in september of 2025 before the special intensive review exercise was conducted tamirnadu would

31:07have recorded a turnout of 76.1 percent had there been no sir and that's i think broadly the the

31:15consensus

31:16in fact we have looked at it in some detail and just one minute sure sir the high turnout 85

31:28percent

31:28plus it could go even a bit higher in this state is because of the sir deletions which are 67

31:36lakhs 6.7

31:38million deletions net after accounting for the addition of new voters and that obviously has resulted in a

31:45lower denominator and since 2021 the numerator the that is the actual number of votes has gone up only

31:54modestly in fact it's in keeping with the expected increase of voters due to population growth so this

32:02is more or less the normal path it's a good turnout but then you should also remember that quite a

32:09large

32:09number of although the sir in tamirnadu was not very contentious there's no great discontent about

32:16it we find that several lakh voters genuine voters have not have been unable to vote these are reported

32:25in the newspapers and we are trying to calculate it it could be well over 30 lakhs maybe even 40

32:30lakhs

32:31we're trying to calculate that figure if you look at the projections of the adult population in the state

32:39about 40 30 to 40 lakh people who should be voters are not in the electoral rolls so that's another

32:45factor so it's not the the turnout is in a sense exaggerated but it's a good turnout i agree with

32:52you what you said secondly there's one one minute okay no secondly there is no empirical evidence to link

33:03high turnout with throwing the ruling party out in fact it works both ways in this in west bengal the

33:11turnout could be very high and i would predict that the tm the the the tmc is going to score

33:18a decisive

33:19win i i can see that coming already it's you know so there's no correlation i think poll analysts

33:26those who looked at data are very clear that there's no empirical uh uh connection or correlation

33:34between high turnout and anti uh so then you clearly believe sir that the dmk has an edge out it's

33:41happened in some couple of things that i want to highlight here one is uh urban and the fact that

33:47you know you've seen a healthy water turnout in places like chennai many are suggesting that that

33:51means advantage tvk and so that means dmk stronghold of urban seats could be cut into add that and

33:59anti-incumbency that you have more options obviously that goes away from the dmk minorities again tvk is

34:05denting that those are three factors coupled together together could be a big dent to own the dmk sir

34:16oh there's no doubt that this is a tripolar contest and that is a new factor vijay coming in

34:23the question is you know how many seats will he get and at whose expense let us assume that he'll

34:30take

34:30from both but it is clear to all of us political observers even those who look at data that the

34:38bulk

34:38of the loss will be for the aidmk and the alliance because let me explain why i've done it in

34:45earlier

34:45discussions sure that i don't believe in this term this lazy term anti-incumbency because if you look

34:52at some states like west bengal under when jyoti basu was the the chief minister there's no anti-incumbency

35:00of any kind you look at odyssa and naveen putnik election after election he wanted the last one

35:06so no anti-incumbency and likewise in west bengal under mamata banerji people talk about anti-incumbency

35:14but it's not reflected in the data but there are other states where for whatever reason which reasons

35:20which are to be deeply studied government they alternate the ruling party goes into the opposition

35:28and the opposition party comes to power kerala tamirnad used to be the case it's changed now kerala

35:34change last time with two terms for the ldf and so on but this is a different area but let

35:40me explain

35:41try to explain what could have happened in tamirnad there is a traditional anti-dmk vote in tamirnad which

35:49was developed and consolidated by chief minister mg ramachandran and chief minister jayal alita that vote

35:56remains whatever happens these people will not vote for the dmk now but to activate that vote you need

36:04what what what can be called a face mgr jayal alita and eps for whatever strength he has

36:13has not been able to provide that face no so then sir vijay has been able to provide some kind

36:20of face

36:20at this point is at a disadvantage because of a lack of face but having said that uh you know

36:26we're seeing

36:27that the tvk and there are many uh analysts who suggest that in rural pockets which is where the

36:32aiadmk is strong in their traditional strongholds it's harder for the tvk to break through and

36:38therefore the word cutter that we're referring to of vijay of tvk has more of a dent and impact to

36:43the

36:43dmk not so much on the aiadmk does that then translate to advantage aiadmk with the entry of a vijay

36:52so the no that's not true because the dmk has very deep roots in uh large regions of tamil nad

36:59for

36:59the delta region and then in the south with its allies and even in the north where pmk has suffered

37:06some reverses i think the it's it's it's certainly well entrenched in rural areas it began with dmk

37:14historically began with cities that is a fact it dominated cities and then gradually spread out

37:20but today its organizational strength is everywhere and the aiadmk also is fairly well entrenched

37:28in different parts of the state although there are also weaker areas for both

37:33so i think that that argument doesn't hold for me at all because the dmk is very strong in fact

37:41i

37:41would expect our ground report suggests that there will be some surprises in the western region which

37:48has been traditionally dominated by the aidmk i think the dmk is going to score some surprises in

37:55coimbatore and areas like that even though the aidmk is quite strong secondly historically the aidmk has

38:05had a stronghold among women voters in fact if only men were voters the dmk could

38:11never have been displaced but under mgr and particularly jayal alitha chief minister jayal alitha

38:17i think they had a much greater share of the women's vote than the dmk did with his allies

38:23i think that situation has changed with the various uh measures pro-women measures that this government

38:30has instituted over the last uh five five years they've learned from past experience and i think

38:36uh apart from free bus travel the various schemes uh has has won it a lot of support among women

38:44this

38:44is this is what we get from field reports therefore so the argument that uh in rural areas uh it'll

38:51be

38:51the dmk that will lose more doesn't carry any conviction with me so then mr ram considering we're

38:59seeing an unprecedented situation where you have a third party whose impact we don't really know let me

39:03throw up a scenario for you hung assembly do you see that happening

39:10zero chance i would say no so clear mandate

39:18a clear majority for the alliance and i think i would also expect

39:22a major single party majority for the dmk yes based on all right so whatever polling serious

39:29polling figures are available which have been leaked and also journalist observations on the ground

39:35this is what i think and virtually everyone except you know they do poll poll of polls which sort of

39:42mixes up good polls with lousy polls but even they show that barring the propaganda polls that the dmk is

39:50clearly ahead and will win a decisive majority as an alliance and a single party majority as well

39:57all right mr ram thank you for joining us always a pleasure to have you with us here on india

40:03today

40:03sir so we've got you one uh voice in mr n ram i also want to bring in on this

40:09broadcast now

40:09this is gurumurthy editor of tughla against someone who's tracked tamirnado politics for decades so we've

40:16got you the best voices here on india today to decode what we make of that turnout uh mr gurumurthy

40:21first of

40:22all your reaction to this kind of a turnout do you think it's historic unprecedented or like i termed

40:28it just a healthy turnout that we've seen in tamirnado sir see obviously the electoral roles have

40:36been cleaned up and that is one of the principal reasons for the rise in the voting percentage but

40:44even then even given given that there has been at least three four percent rise in the uh overall

40:50voting and urban and rural voting have been almost equal this time uh urban voters used to vote less

40:59than rural voters but now both are same and women votes have also picked up so there is a qualitative

41:07change in the voting pattern and given the fact that the dravidian idea is fatiguing and with the entry of

41:21two players significant players one is uh vijaya the other is seema the non-dravidian uh idea is gaining

41:34ground along with the bjp because these are the only three parties which are attracting youths in tamil

41:43okay the reverian parties have ceased to to attract youth this is not being noticed in the media i am

41:50really surprised because in 2018 itself stalin said youths are not taking to politics which actually

41:57meant youths are not taking to the dmk so youths are attracted only to three parties in what proportion

42:07uh and in which area is very difficult to say or with the bjp uh simon that is the um

42:18the tamil party

42:21and vijay so this election is going to be a very significant election in the sense

42:30that the loosening of the grip of the dravidian idea will come out that loosening of grip sir that

42:36loosening of grip of the dravidian parties do you think it's just that they're loosening their grip or

42:41more in the sense do you think a vijay can have such a big impact that the dravidian parties are

42:46no longer

42:48giants well it much more it is of course it is not going to be that the dravidian parties are

42:54going

42:54to be wiped out in this election that's not my case i have been seeing this trend from 2019-20

43:02now i feel that the radiant parties still hold the main ground the battle is between them it is not

43:10that

43:11uh vijay has been able to shift to the battle as he has been saying between the dmk and uh

43:16himself

43:17it's not true but in the northern districts of tamil nadu that is above trichi right up to chennai

43:26it is true that the uh vijay effect is considerable but it is not the same in the southern districts

43:35or even

43:40uniform challenge from vijay even given that i feel that even the anti-incumbency feelings which have

43:53been generated by vijay and simon very powerfully one is based on popularity and another is based on

44:00sheer logic uh will ultimately uh mean advantage to the admk and vjp because only the admk and vjp are

44:13capable of defeating the dmk but it is neither the anti-incumbency you know the anti-incumbency vote

44:19that would otherwise go to the aia dmk gets cut with more alternatives like vijay like a simon as you

44:26should and the aia dmk with the numbers that you see at least of 2021 cannot afford a dent can

44:31they

44:34see this uh this doesn't uh because it requires an in-depth understanding of tamilnadu politics

44:41tamilnadu politics is partly the old bank of the respective parties the dmk or the admk

44:49the very a very substantial part of the tamilnadu politics the shifter in favor of the admk has is

45:00rightly as you say anti-dmk votes what we call uh these anti-incumbency votes but these anti-incumbency

45:09votes are not absolute votes they are votes with a purpose so if it is not that anti-establishment

45:18people blindly will vote for vijay or simon they will also vote with a question whether these guys

45:26can win that is where i think vijay's strategy to fight alone declaring himself as the chief minister

45:35has been a bad strategy he should have cut deals with a couple of parties i mean there many parties

45:43were available i don't know why i i think he he lacked a proper political advice if he had added

45:50maybe two three parties many parties were willing to shift from both admk and the dmk congress was

45:57actually very keen of course congress had other problems if he had been able to add partners then

46:04vijay would have forced forced a very major challenge to the admk now i think he's contesting alone is his

46:12biggest the weakest point because everyone knew knows that he cannot defeat the dmk on his own

46:20so the anti-dmk votes which would uh which he had cultivated through his popularity or whatever

46:29will get divided between him and the admk in this election but sir you keep referring to simon and

46:34vijay in the same sentence is your analysis then that they have the same level of impact that

46:40if simon in 2021 was the third largest party with a single digit vote share that's what vijay is going

46:45to get vijay has created anti-establishment feeling through his popularity yeah and simon through his

46:55logic so simon is a long-term player how long he will carry on i don't know but he is

47:02the

47:02only man who has mounted ideological challenge against the dravidian parties in a sense uh vijay

47:12is a pseudo dravidian party like the dmk admk is not dravidian but it still has this dravidian shadow

47:20in the same way vijay also has accepted all the symbolisms of dravidian parties but he is anti-dmk

47:28so these are the nuances which you have to see in tamilnadu politics there is a huge amount of

47:35anti-dmk or anti-dravidian uh ground that is swelling up in tamilnadu in this election this

47:43will go against the dmk no so so finally sir finally to you what will be the result of this

47:51election you

47:52know there's talk of vijay wave there's talk about ai dmk dmk which one will get cut which will benefit

47:57what do you think ultimately mr guvimuthi yes because vijay also cuts the pro dmk votes

48:05sure the minorities the schedule cause uh minorities means particularly christian

48:12minorities are heavily divided this time between the dmk and and vijay that's what i understand

48:17because all the attempts by the church to give a direction to uh the church members to vote for dmk

48:26has been resisted in the church itself and that resistance comes mainly because of vijay being a

48:32christian himself dmk may lose a certain i don't know how much it can be 30 or 40 or 50

48:40christian

48:41votes so the pro dmk part of the christian votes and the schedule cause particularly because the

48:50schedule costs have been the biggest users during the dmk regime and has not been able to protect

48:57their interests and so that works may also shift this is another the qualitatively different it's

49:03not anti-dmk it is the pro dmk votes the dmk votes of course will get divided in my view

49:10between

49:11the admk bjp on the one hand which will be the substantial gainers of this and partly vijay and

49:19sim okay uh interesting interesting analysis as always a pleasure to have you with us here thank

49:24you very much mr gurumurthy for taking the time out and joining us here on india today we've got you

49:29two

49:29views from mr enram and mr gurumurthy ultimately with the water turnout that we've seen very healthy

49:34water turnout to tamirnadu who does that benefit who gets to uh claim advantage over this you'll

49:40hear a lot of rhetoric may 4th we'll get the answers thanks for tuning in

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