- 6 weeks ago
As West Bengal prepares for phase two of the assembly elections on April 29, the political battle intensifies across 142 seats in South Bengal and Kolkata.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching NewsTrack with me, Maria Shaquille.
00:03After weeks of high-voltage campaigning, rallies, roadshows, temple runs,
00:08the curtains have come down, the loudspeakers have gone silent.
00:12Phase 2 voting in West Bengal is on April 29th and it is crucial.
00:17It covers key TMC strongholds where the BJP is pushing hard to make inroads.
00:24From urban centres to rural and minority-dominated belts,
00:28this phase tests anti-incumbency against Mamata Banerjee's welfare model.
00:34Women voters remain a decisive force,
00:37while identity politics could shape outcomes in some pockets.
00:42And having travelled across North and South 24 Parganas and Kolkata,
00:47one thing is clear, the fight is tight and it could swing either way.
00:51So why does Phase 2 matter so much?
00:55Who has the edge, Mamata Banerjee or the BJP?
00:59For Ibarthan or Prevalence, what will Bengal choose?
01:02Before I bring in the guests, here's a report.
01:20Phase 1 is done and now all eyes turn to the real battleground.
01:26Phase 2 of the West Bengal Assembly Elections
01:30Bengal's intense campaign trail has come to a close,
01:33marked by massive roadshows, packed rallies and temple runs.
01:40Ahead of the D-Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for a Vixit Bengal,
01:44urging voters to choose development over division.
01:47And as he put it, say yes to faith and no to fear.
02:17Voting now enters its most crucial stretch.
02:20With Phase 2 scheduled for April 29th, this round is being seen as a potential decider phase of the electoral
02:28battle.
02:29Covering 142 seats across South Bengal and Kolkata, it is both large and politically critical.
02:37These regions have historically shaped Bengal's power equations and once again, they stand at the centre of the contest.
02:46Out of the 142 seats, the Presidency Division, Kolkata, Havra, Nadia, North and South, 24 Parganas, account for 111 seats,
02:55making it the political heartland of the state.
02:58This belt has long been a TMC stronghold under CM Mamta, delivering a sweeping performance in 2021.
03:23Ahead of the D-Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for a Vixit Bengal,
03:35and the government, which is given as a 1.5 per km, which is provided to the prescription for 15
03:39rupees.
03:40It's available to be given in a 15 days.
03:43This is the same for the Vixit Bengal, which is available for the other people.
03:59We have to get an 18-year-old their husband.
04:00You will get an 18-year-old husband.
04:01Yes, you will get an 18-year-old husband.
04:01Yes, I will get an 18-year-old husband.
04:08At the core of this battle are North and South 24 Parganas, the twin districts that continue
04:13to define Bengal's political direction.
04:15With 33 seats in the North 24 Parganas and 31 in South, along with Kolkata's 11 and Havda's
04:2216, this region forms both the TMC's strongest base and the BJP's biggest strategic challenge.
04:34I've seen the Congress, I've seen the CPM and now I've seen the TNC.
04:38Now, if there are BJP, I can see them too.
04:41Which people are angry, are angry?
04:44No angry, they will die.
04:48They will die.
04:49They will end up.
04:50They didn't look at any of these.
04:51Everyone worked here?
04:53No.
04:55Just 4 days, now it's been closed.
04:59The other side of Kelvin has been caught in the middle of the building.
05:03so
05:03foreign
05:12foreign
05:13foreign
05:14foreign
05:28foreign
06:06As the second round of the ballot battle nears, the fight now slips out of the campaign arenas
06:12and into the People's Court. The question now is, who will Bengal finally hand the mandate to?
06:19Mamata or Modi? What next? Poribortun or Prevalence?
06:28With Maria Shakeel, Bureau Report, India Today.
06:36And joining me on the show tonight, Neerja Achwadri, senior journalist and columnist
06:41who has traveled in Bengal as well. She joins me live. Rahul Verma is the fellow of Center for Policy
06:50Research.
06:51We also have Sajjan Kumar, political analyst. Rahul, I'm going to begin with you.
06:55What's your assessment? What has happened so far? And what is your sense of phase two?
07:02Phase two is going to happen two days from now, right?
07:07So, the first phase, 152 seats, which went on April 23rd, the BJP has some presence there.
07:17Those are the areas of North Bengal and parts of Jungle Man.
07:21But it's the second phase where TMC dominates. It's in some ways TMC's fortress.
07:27Out of 142 seats, last time TMC had won 123 and BJP had 18.
07:33So, second phase comes into play only if BJP has overperformed in phase one.
07:41Because even in phase one, last time TMC has led, they had 192-odd seats there.
07:47So, unless BJP manages to sort of like get somewhere around 80-85 seats, there is no point, like, you
07:55know, you can have, like, there are going to be elections in phase two.
07:59But BJP can only be in competition if it overperforms in phase one and manages to make some decent inroads
08:07in phase two.
08:08Okay. So, that's your assessment, Neerja Chowdhury, as someone who was on the ground, this phase has South 24 Parganaz,
08:17which is Mamata Banerjee's bastion, against Havra, again, Huggly.
08:22These are considered to be her fortress.
08:30That's right. But, you know, I talked to a lot of women. I went to Canning, Pura, Pashtim, and that's
08:37in 24 Parganaz, South.
08:39And I heard even women's voices calling for change.
08:44There were a large number of voices of women and others who were for TMC continuing.
08:51But there were voices that called for change.
08:55And there were also voices of women, Muslim women, who were thinking of voting for the Indian Secular Front.
09:05They said, neither Mamata nor Modi.
09:08Now, that may not be a large number, but that also was an opinion.
09:11So, you know, this time, I mean, I didn't travel extensively, Calcutta and certain parts of the 24 Parganaz, South.
09:19But the sense I got was that at least I felt more of anti-incumbency being expressed than I had
09:30personally expected.
09:32And I felt that Mamata, the election is about Mamata.
09:38Mamata is standing there like a rock trying to stop what could have been a deluge.
09:44The extent to which she'll be able to stem this, that will determine the outcome.
09:49And somewhere, I think the women's vote also might get dented.
09:55It may be 10%, 15%, 20% or more, we don't know.
09:59But many women who are voting to TMC said,
10:03So, that also, it might get dented.
10:10So, whether Mamata's own personality, her fighting spirit, the Bengali card she's played,
10:16of Bengali nationalism, whether that'll work, remains to be seen.
10:22Yes, so, I tend to agree with you, Neerja Chowdhury, because I got a similar sentiment traveling in several parts
10:29of Bengal.
10:30So, Sajjan, I agree with Neerja that it is Mamata Banerjee which is standing between BJP and Nabanna,
10:37which is the seat of power in Bengal.
10:39And at the same time, when you speak to people, they speak about cut money, corruption, all that is problematic.
10:49But they speak in the context of Trinamul Congress, the party which has been founded by Mamata Banerjee.
10:55But when it is about the chief minister herself, many are of the opinion that she has done a decent
11:00job.
11:01But then if you reverse that logic or flip that logic,
11:04it is also about a significant population which say that it's about the local candidate.
11:09I think that's where the real challenge for the TMC is.
11:14Yes, precisely. And that is why you see TMC underwent a change of candidate almost on 35% of its
11:23seats.
11:23Either they changed the candidate or changed the constituency.
11:26So, that is a well-known strategy across India to neutralize the anti-incumbency at the local level.
11:33But nevertheless, compared to the 2020 election, the challenge is Herculean for Mamata.
11:38One, because her own popularity.
11:41Remember 2021, she played the son of the soil, you know, sentiment that Bengal needs its own daughter, Bahiragato.
11:48So, outsiders are trying to take over Bengal.
11:51That is completely missing this time.
11:53While TMC is trying to employ that.
11:55You do not see that sentiment working.
11:57And it will have it repercussions in the second round because Kolkata, Havra, Hooghly and lots many adjoining area of
12:04South 24 Pargana
12:06does have this, you know, what you call the Hindi speaker, Hindi Bhashi versus the Bengali Bhashi fault line, which
12:12Mamata played last time, right?
12:14This time you do not see that happening.
12:16So, that is why of the much-douted AAA, Mathwas signifying larger Dalit, not just the Mathwas, Muslims and Mahila.
12:24It is the Mahila which people are talking about, which way they would turn into.
12:28So, you find clearly that like analysts, it is the women who are hedging.
12:33So, while the urban and working women, you know, they seem to have lost the charm of Mamata magic, you
12:42know, in significant number.
12:43In the rural area, you find many of the women, you find split voices.
12:47While there are significant number who may consider Lucky Bandar because it is a continuing scheme.
12:53And that we found as a tangible factor to consider, despite not being very happy, there are many rural women
12:59also who are beneficiary of this scheme.
13:02And yet, they are considering voting for change.
13:06So, which means that even Mamata's own persona, right, has taken a dip.
13:13What is the extent of the dip?
13:15We cannot say.
13:16That remains a riddle.
13:17Why?
13:18Because in this round, last time, TMC got absolutely around 43 lakh more votes compared to BJP, which is huge,
13:29right?
13:30So, if, as Rahul said, if BJP has to win this round, they need to not be around 80, 85.
13:37They need to be around 9,500 because demography is a big factor in this round.
13:42South 24 Pergana out of 31, you have zero, you know?
13:46You may increase to a couple of, say, but you won't enter into double, not 24 Pergana, 4 Pergana out
13:52of 33.
13:53In the Matua Belt and some adjoining areas, you may get, add, say, 10 more seats.
13:59But there is a limit to which you can expand in the second phase.
14:02So, crucial factor would not be the second phase or the women in the second phase because there are a
14:10lot of demography.
14:11So, Muslim women, you know, they may also not be happy with many of the TMC candidates' performance, but nevertheless,
14:20there is a community pressure.
14:22There is a community insecurity which consolidates, despite, grudgingly, you vote for TMC.
14:27Similarly, there are many others.
14:28So, that way, ultimately, it is the women who are hedging, the rural women who are hedging, and that makes
14:36Bengal, second round, contingent to first round, a riddle for all of us.
14:41Yeah, so it's a riddle.
14:42I think that's a great acceptance that we are seeing from analysts and sophologists that we do not know which
14:48way Bengal is going.
14:49There is a large sentiment of anger, there is a sentiment of anti-incumbency, but to what extent?
14:57There is that sentiment of even rural women that I have spoken to, Neerja Chaudhary, who have told me on
15:02record, and we have put those soundbites also out,
15:05that instead of giving us 1,500 rupees, the chief minister should give us 15 days of work, chakri.
15:11They have spoken about it.
15:13They have spoken about insecurities.
15:14They have spoken about other concerns as well.
15:16But the point that has been made by both Rahul Verma and Abai Sajjan Kumar, if there has to be
15:24a significant gain for the BJP, you know, because they are standing at 77.
15:30If they have to make that huge leap, it is this phase where they can make that gains.
15:36The question is, did you sense that kind of massive surge?
15:46Well, no, I would not say this massive surge, because in this area, in fact, I found more voices for
15:56the TMC than for change.
15:59There were voices for change also, but more for the TMC than, say, in the Kolkata area.
16:06You know, I also met many women who talked about, give us a job, 1,500, we can't live on
16:12that, or my daughter is graduate today, but 1,500, what will we do with it, and so on.
16:18But those were, I found, much more middle class women.
16:23The more you climb the ladder economically, the more that kind of a sentiment was expressed.
16:30The poorer people who were in the slums or in the rural areas, a 120-year-old woman, her daughter,
16:41all sticking by Mamata Banerjee, and they feel, they may be dissatisfied, they said, but they feel a sense, you
16:49know, of comfort with her, having delivered, and said,
16:55Ultimately, this is the state, and one young woman, in her own constituency, said to me, you know, when we
17:03are in trouble, we go to Didi, tomorrow if BJP comes, will we go to Delhi?
17:09So that this BJP is equal to Delhi, and a rule from Delhi is the message, Mamata has been having
17:17home, and somewhere it has hit home.
17:20So, as you said, none of us really know, SIR is the other imponderable, that's the wild card.
17:27How is it going to, how are these deletions going to pan out politically?
17:32So there are too many imponderables in the Bengal situation today.
17:37But one thing is clear, BJP is pushing forward, and Mamata is pushing it back.
17:44That much is clear.
17:46Now, will she succeed?
17:47We don't know.
17:48Okay, okay.
17:49So, Rahul Orma, you know, women as a constituency, we have seen invariably, are becoming the deciding factor, election after
18:00election, state after state.
18:02But my question is, from phase one to now, what are you sensing, particularly among the women of Bengal?
18:10And is it different in urban pockets and rural women?
18:16Urban women, rural women?
18:17Will you be making that distinction?
18:21Maria, I don't do that kind of, like, thinking on different groups.
18:27But let me say, tell you what is my thinking on this.
18:30In last three elections, with every election, Mamata or PMC's vote share and seat share has increased.
18:37Every election.
18:38What we know now, that there are some cracks appearing, and that crack creates an opening for the BJP.
18:46There is a narrow possibility which BJP has to be able to reach closer to majority mark.
18:53That cannot happen without BJP being able to attract a large section of women voter.
19:00Because think of it, the way Bengal demography is arranged, BJP is not going to get any vote from 30
19:09to 33% of Muslim population.
19:11So their strike rate has to be really, really high among Hindu voters, and especially among women Hindu voters, because
19:19last time, Mantha Banerjee's lead among women voters was doubled.
19:24So if she led by six percentage point among women, the lead was almost 12 or 13 percentage point among
19:32women voters.
19:33And that lead was much more among poor and lower middle class women.
19:39And given that the kind of strike rate TMC had in sort of like presidency area, that area is much
19:52more urban than the phase one, which went on 23.
19:55So I think what everyone is saying, what Neerjaji said, Sajjan said, and what your sort of like clip showed
20:03in the beginning,
20:04I think there is a yearning or silent yearning for change among a small section.
20:11Whether that is big enough to be able to push now BJP close to majority mark, that is hard to
20:19find out.
20:21Why do you say it is hard to find out, Rahul?
20:24Because unless there is a ground swell, even if you met 100 voters, Maria, 40 of them are likely to
20:32be BJP voters.
20:3544 or 43 are likely to be TMC voters.
20:38So you have to see a swing of only five to six for this to happen.
20:43Think of it like when you met 100 voters, you need to know which are the four or five voters
20:49which are switching.
20:50That is why it is hard to find from the ground, unless you are meeting thousands of people, right?
20:58So that's what I'm saying.
20:59And given, like if you look at the constituency demographic, BJP's own strategy, to my mind, should be very clear.
21:08Forget about 90 to 100 seats out of 294.
21:12Focus on 170 or 180 odd seats.
21:15And in that 180 odd seats, BJP need a 80% strike rate.
21:21That's what the arithmetic of Bengal election is.
21:26Everything else is noise.
21:28The point that you made specifically about the strike rate, let's go back in time and bring in Sajjan now.
21:37Sajjan, 2021, the nature of strike rate, if you can tell our viewers.
21:42Yeah, last time, out of 294, BJP got 37.5% votes and 77 seats.
21:54TMC got around 48%, almost a 10% gap with 215 seats.
22:02So TMC's strike rate would be around 75%, right?
22:11That's a huge, huge sort of a thing.
22:13While that of BJP is around, if I'm correct, around 35 to something around that.
22:19Now, that's a huge gap.
22:21Now, here, let me add to what Rahul was saying more in a quantitative way, because Rahul takes data way
22:27more seriously.
22:29Let me add the quality of why it is difficult to, you know, understand or speculate or make an intelligent
22:35about the strike rate.
22:37Because while in rest of India, every political party wants to dominate the war of perception before actual elections, because
22:46war of perceptions helps you in rest of India to influence the fence eater, the undecided voter who go with
22:54the wind, right?
22:55So when you want to say that we are winning, your real target is there is a segment of voters
23:01who are undecided.
23:02You want to influence them because they go with the wind.
23:04That's the theory.
23:05In Bengal, war of perception is indispensable, even for your own voter to have the confidence to come out and
23:15vote that way you want to vote, particularly if you belong to opposition, right?
23:20So if in Bengal and many of us feel, you must have also seen, there is a subjective and objective
23:26gap.
23:27Subjectively, an overwhelming percentage of voters want to see change happening.
23:35But many of them, it is because they are not confident whether their desire, the party they want to see,
23:42that is BJP, will actually reach that finishing line.
23:46Yes.
23:47So the moment you are even, you have an aorta of doubt, even a couple of percentage of those voters
23:53will step back, not step, come out to vote or even come out to vote, will not be likely to
23:58be called out because there is a postal violence.
24:00That's why what we have seen, that's why, Sajjan, we have seen an extra push in this period from 23rd
24:07to now by Prime Minister Modi, by Home Minister Amit Shah and the entire BJP leadership because they know that
24:13that perception has to be generated that they are reaching the finishing line.
24:18That's why in the rallies, we have seen the BJP leadership say that they have already reached 116 out of
24:26152 seats.
24:27So I think that that is the effort and narrative building which has happened.
24:31Of course, today, the entire campaigning has ended.
24:35So Nija Chaudhuri, Rahul Verma and Sajjan Kumar, really appreciate your time.
24:37Thank you so much for joining us.
24:40On 29th, our special coverage begins early morning.
24:44So stay tuned.
24:45Lots more news and updates.
24:46Thanks so much for watching.
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