- 5 months ago
The big talking point of this episode of News Today is the final and second phase assembly poll in West Bengal.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today, your prime time destination news, newsmakers talking points Tuesday night.
00:07Let's tell you what our big talking point is. The five M's that will decide the Bengal election.
00:14The second phase goes to polls tomorrow. We'll tell you what those five M's are.
00:20Also, UAE walks out of OPEC. The world is facing a serious oil crisis.
00:26What next? How does India deal with it? That's going to be on the news today.
00:31But as always, there's plenty on the show tonight. So let's kick off with the nine headlines at nine.
00:41All eyes on the last phase of the Bengal elections tomorrow.
00:46Voting on 142 seats, verdict on the 4th of May.
00:50You can catch the big exit poll coverage on India today tomorrow from 5pm.
00:57A showdown ahead of voting day in Bengal.
01:01Top cop from UP warns a Trinamul Congress candidate against voter intimidation.
01:06TMC hits back, says you started, we'll end it.
01:09A complaint is filed against the IPS officer for allegedly barging into offices, houses and assaulting women.
01:20Government's big assurance amidst speculation over fuel price, says no plan to increase prices after Bengal polls.
01:28Meanwhile, Indian Airlines sends an SOS to the government over the surging jet fuel prices.
01:38Amidst the fragile peace in West Asia, UAE quits oil producers group OPEC and OPEC Plus claims decision after a
01:47careful look at their regional energy strategies.
01:52A clean sweep for the BJP in local body polls in Gujarat.
01:56They win all 15 municipal corporations.
02:00Congress and ARP failed to leave any impact.
02:05After Arvind Kejriwal, now his deputy Mani Sisodia also boycotts high court hearings in the Delhi excise policy case,
02:12says he does not expect justice from the judge who refused to recuse herself.
02:19ISIS-inspired attack near Mumbai.
02:22Security guards were asked about their religion, then stabbed.
02:26Entire incident caught on cam.
02:28Probe reveals attacker watched videos of ISIS online.
02:34Shocker from Odisha.
02:35Man carries skeletal remains of his sister to a bank in Odisha to withdraw her money under fire.
02:41The bank clarifies claims, asked for death certificate, not for physical remains.
02:49And after accusing the Wrestling Federation of India of deliberately blocking her participation from a wrestling competition,
02:56Vinesh Fogart clarifies, her registration is now done.
02:59She is ready for a comeback.
03:14The big story that we are breaking right at the very top of the news today.
03:18A police complaint has been filed against the senior IPS officer from Uttar Pradesh, Ajaypal Sharma,
03:24who is at the moment in Bengal and Central Forces for allegedly barging into houses at night and assaulting women
03:32in the Falta constituency.
03:34The complaint was filed by one woman at the Falta police station.
03:37The IPS officer was caught on video and is under fire for allegedly intimidating a Trinamun Congress candidate's family.
03:45In turn, while there were protests against the officer, the government or the security sources are saying they are only
03:52following instructions of the EC to ensure a free and fair poll.
03:57So, trouble for UP's Singham, as the BJP has called him, in West Bengal.
04:03Filed complaint, filed against IPS officer Ajay Sharma.
04:07Joining me now is Inderjeet Kundu.
04:09Joins me on that story.
04:11Inderjeet, clearly with less than 12 hours to go before that second phase, tempers are running high, allegations, counter-allegations
04:19being made.
04:20But presumably at the moment, the officer concerned finds himself in the eye of a major controversy.
04:31Well, absolutely.
04:33You know, multiple police observers have been deployed across West Bengal by the Election Commission.
04:38Most of these officers are from other states.
04:41But this one particular officer has hawked the limelight for all the long reasons.
04:46Because there is a huge political row that has now erupted with a police complaint being filed against a police
04:53observer in Falta.
04:55Falta, of course, comes under the Diamond Harbour Lok Sabha constituency.
04:59And that is known as the bastion of Trinamun Congress, second in command, Abhishek Banerjee.
05:04And security, of course, has been beefed up across West Bengal for these 142 seats.
05:09And specifically in Kolkata as well, 2.34 lakh central forces deployed for these 142 seats.
05:17And more than 27,000 central forces would be deployed alone in Kolkata itself.
05:23So it's just a wait for tonight.
05:25And tomorrow morning, 7 o'clock, polling will begin.
05:30Indraji, just to understand, this large security contingent presumably has a lot of officers heading it from outside Bengal.
05:38Am I correct that a number of the West Bengal officers have been transferred out in the last month?
05:47Well, that's right.
05:48And even as we bring this report, just a short while back, we've come to know from the Election Commission
05:54that two senior officials, ADM rank, additional district magistrates of South 24 Pargana,
06:00once again, the district where it is known as the TMC bastion, Diamond Harbour comes from the same district,
06:07Falta, Diamond Harbour, all these areas.
06:09Yes, Abhishek Banerjee's bastion, the ADM has been removed by the Election Commission.
06:14Another critical district, Bid Bhoom, the ADM has been removed from election-related duties.
06:19We've received this information just a short while back from the Election Commission.
06:24Okay, I'm going to leave it there.
06:25Indrajiit Kundu, clearly all eyes will be on those security forces.
06:28In fact, as we said, a top cop is at the center of this political storm over security forces,
06:34central security forces in West Bengal.
06:36The UP IPS officer, Ajay Pal Sharma, deployed by the Election Commission in South 24 Parganas,
06:42has been called by some as an encounter specialist.
06:45He's under fire after warning a TMC candidate Jahangir Khan's family over alleged voter intimidation.
06:52The TMC hit back and it triggered a full-blown war of word,
06:55just showing how fragile the situation is in West Bengal ahead of polling day tomorrow.
07:02India Today now reports from the ground.
07:19Ahead of the second phase of voting in Bengal,
07:22the spotlight is on Uttar Pradesh IPS officer, Ajay Pal Sharma,
07:26handpicked by Election Commission as the police observer for South 24 Parganas.
07:32While on duty, Sharma warned Falta TMC candidate Jahangir Khan's relatives,
07:38citing complaints of voter intimidation.
07:55Jahangir Khan hit back.
07:57At a public rally, Jahangir Khan wants picture,
08:00Abhi Bakki hai.
08:14The war of words has ignited a political storm.
08:31The TMC alleges Ajaypal Sharma has been parachuted to influence voters.
08:39The war of words has ignited a political storm.
09:30The war of words has ignited a political storm.
09:42Meanwhile, a police complaint has been filed against IPS officer Ajaypal Sharma and central forces were allegedly barging into houses
09:51at night and assaulting women in Falta.
09:55The EC, on the other hand, has removed the Falta BDO for allegedly not cooperating with Ajaypal Sharma.
10:03Bureau Report, India Today.
10:24In the areas in and around Kolkata and southern Bengal, 2021 Assembly polls, TMC was at 123, BJP 18, others
10:341.
10:35In the 2020 poll, Lok Sabha, the TMC was ahead in 115 of the constituencies, BJP in 27.
10:41So this is the fortress of the TMC that the BJP is hoping to breach this time.
10:46And if they can do so, then who knows, Bengal could throw a major surprise.
10:52But the questions I will raise are what I am calling the 5 M's that will decide Bengal in 2026.
10:59And I will tell you them in a moment.
11:01Joining me now are two people who track polling very closely, Rahul Verma, Centre for Policy Research,
11:07and Sandeep Shastri, election analyst and Vice President, Nitya University.
11:12Appreciate both of you joining me on the show tonight.
11:15And I am going to go one by one on the 5 M's that one believes will decide this critical
11:21phase that comes up tomorrow.
11:23The first one is Mamata Banerjee herself.
11:26Because at the end of the day, she is the critical factor as far as the Trinamul Congress is concerned.
11:32The election is fought around her.
11:34And I look at the numbers, 2019 Lok Sabha, TMC 22, BJP 18.
11:39BJP made a huge breakthrough in 2019 Lok Sabha.
11:42Assembly elections, TMC got 216, BJP 77.
11:46Lok Sabha, TMC 2024, TMC 29, BJP 12.
11:53So, the gap was narrowest in 2019.
11:56And that's the kind of election that the BJP will hope can turn it around for them in West Bengal.
12:02Am I right in saying that the first M factor, Sandeep Shastri, is Mamata Banerjee herself?
12:06This election is a referendum in a way on a leader who's been in power for 15 years and could
12:12be facing anti-incumbency.
12:15Rashideep, I don't know your other 4 M's, so I can't say whether it's the first M.
12:19But then it's an important M.
12:21Beyond a doubt, it's an important M.
12:24The TMC's entire campaign revolves around the persona of Mamata Banerjee.
12:32The BJP seems to have altered its strategy a bit this time in West Bengal.
12:37By focusing much more on the TMC, its government, 15 years of government, and incidentally, is talking of Mamata Banerjee.
12:47Because they realized that last time, an over-focus on Mamata Banerjee allowed her to make it a Bengal versus
12:55non-Bengal issue.
12:57So, no shadow of doubt that Mamata is critical for both the TMC and the type of hold that she
13:06has over the voters would be a critical factor in deciding and defining the direction of the result.
13:14Most critical M, I'm not sure I would wait for your other M's to come out.
13:19Okay, I'll come to each M one by one.
13:21But Rahul Verma, would I be right in saying it's difficult for a chief minister to win four successive terms?
13:26Very few have done it.
13:2815 years on, there are those who say fatigue, if not anger, has set in with Mamata Banerjee.
13:33There are others, though, who say that she remains, and most polls show that's still the first choice when it
13:38comes to chief minister and popularity.
13:40Is it there for Mamata versus Mamata, as some have put it?
13:44Absolutely.
13:45Because, as you rightly pointed out, among the larger states, if Mamata wins fourth time, she would be basically equal
13:54to two other chief ministers, Jyoti Basu and Naveen Patnaya.
13:58No other chief minister who controlled a large state, basically won four consecutive term.
14:03Second point, I think Sandeepji was absolutely right.
14:06There is a murmur or even a silent murmur of small change or ektu parivartan, what I have been hearing.
14:14But it's Mamata which stands between BJP's ambition to dislodge TMC.
14:20Mamata continues to remain very popular.
14:23And I think she is, like, if they come back, it would be Mamata who absorbs the local level anti
14:30-incumbency that has developed against her government, as well as her party cadres.
14:36So, in some ways, whatever anger is, without Mamata, TMC cannot win this election.
14:44Interesting.
14:45Okay, let's turn to my second M.
14:47Mamata is the first M, Mamata Banerjee.
14:49The second M is Narendra Modi, Prime Minister Modi.
14:52Now, one of the things that the Prime Minister has achieved, 11 years after coming to power, 12 years after
14:58coming to power,
14:58he's taken the BJP to form governments in states where they were often, at best, a secondary player.
15:05In fact, in Bengal, they were not even a second player when he took over.
15:08The left was in power.
15:09But look at the numbers.
15:10Formed a government in Maharashtra and Haryana for the first time, in Assam, in Manipur, in Tripura, in Odisha and
15:17Bihar.
15:18So, under Prime Minister Modi, there is little doubt that the BJP has had a remarkable expansion over these 12
15:25years.
15:26Is Narendra Modi, Sandeep Shastri, as much a factor in Bengal as he is in other states, particularly in a
15:34state election?
15:34I gave the difference between 2019 Lok Sabha, where the BJP was very close to Mamata Banerjee and 2021 Vidhan
15:43Sabha, where the gap widened between the two.
15:46Is Mr. Modi and the manner in which he has aggressively campaigned in Bengal a sign that is this election
15:52Mamata versus Modi or is that an oversimplification?
15:57Rajdeep, in states where the Bharatiya Janta party has been growing in the last decade plus, there is no doubt
16:07that the Modi factor is a major factor in the growth of the BJP in those states.
16:13If you look at those states, the popularity of the Prime Minister is much more than the popularity of the
16:22party.
16:23So, yes, in West Bengal, the Modi factor is critical.
16:28However, I'll add one caveat, Rajdeep, there.
16:31That the Modi factor becomes critical for the BJP in states where it is growing.
16:37The challenge is when the opposition has a local face, which is very powerful, which is very credible, and the
16:48BJP does not have a local face.
16:51There, there becomes a challenge.
16:53If there is a local face, then the Modi factor becomes a much more powerful factor to back that local
17:01face.
17:01But in West Bengal, I think the equations are a little different, and that's why the West Bengal election is
17:08different.
17:09The only exception I would take for this is Odisha, where even though there was no local face for the
17:15BJP, they were able to challenge the, able to challenge Naveen Patnaik.
17:23But I would also say that that was because there was a simultaneous Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha poll.
17:27When you have had an exclusive Vidhan Sabha poll, where BJP is trying to build its image, the Prime Minister's
17:37role is critical.
17:38But when there is an opposition leader at the local level who has a mass following, there is a challenge
17:45which the BJP faces.
17:47Let's turn to you on that, Rahul Verma.
17:49It's very interesting because Odisha is a good example, neighboring to Bengal.
17:54Naveen Patnaik was also in power for more than two decades.
17:57Mamata Banerjee in power for 15 years.
17:59Eventually, the BJP, which was a third player also in Odisha, till two decades ago, has actually become party number
18:06one.
18:06In Bengal, they've displaced the left five years ago and are now established as the challenger.
18:13Do you believe, therefore, that Prime Minister Modi in Bengal also allows the BJP to punch above its weight?
18:21Or does this also become about, do you have a credible Bengali face?
18:27So, I don't want to say that state leadership doesn't matter.
18:32But it seems in the last few years, the way elections are being conducted, and especially the way BJP has
18:40been changing its chief minister and still being able to win election, it seems that actually local face doesn't have,
18:49like, it's not the final trump card.
18:51So, I would add to, like, not just Odisha, think of Haryana.
18:56Congress had a much sort of, like, stronger face in Khoda.
19:00I don't think BJP had a strong face.
19:02They won the election.
19:03Nayaps and Saini, they had just changed.
19:05And they still came back to power.
19:07So, except a couple of states, UP and Maharashtra, I think in every other state, the state-level leadership of
19:17BJP is, in fact, weaker to the opposition face.
19:21Think of a state like even in Assam.
19:26When BJP rose in Assam, no one knew Sarvanand Sonawal in that way, like, he's an important leader.
19:33Or Himanta had just joined, right?
19:35So, I think state-level leadership, while it is important, given the way BJP campaigns around Prime Minister Modi, sort
19:46of like, but this is not to say it only depends on face.
19:49I think they have organization, cadre, they use all kinds of resources that is available to them.
19:57So, all instruments get mobilized and everything flows from this personality of Prime Minister Modi.
20:03And you would see a dramatic change that has happened in BJP's campaign in Bengal.
20:09Last time, Prime Minister Modi attacked Mamta from the front.
20:14This time, you haven't seen that kind of attack, right?
20:17And to my mind, BJP has run a much better campaign compared to 2026, 2021.
20:24Of course, this is still Mamta's election to win or lose.
20:28But there is some competitive energy that has been pulled in.
20:33And last point, a small point, which is that, think of it, Bengal.
20:36In some ways, not only BJP grew at the popularity of Prime Minister Modi, but it has now stabilized.
20:44It is now 37-38% vote.
20:47And so, it just needs, like, a small momentum to reach to 42-43% mark.
20:53Okay, let's therefore come to, how do you reach to 42-43%?
20:57And these are the three other M's I want to discuss.
21:00Third is Mahila vote.
21:02Many have believed that the Mahila of West Bengal is decisive.
21:062019 assembly, rather, 2019 Lok Sabha.
21:10TMC got 47% of the vote.
21:13BJP, 38%.
21:14This is as per post-poll findings.
21:172021 assembly, the gap was 13%.
21:20TMC, 50%, 37%.
21:22This is the Lokniti CSTS post-poll survey done by none other than our guest today, Sandeep Shastri.
21:32Sandeep, Mahila vote, does that become critical now?
21:36Because if Mamta Banerjee cannot retain that Mahila vote and the vast gap that there is,
21:41then she becomes even more vulnerable.
21:45That's a critical point, Rajdeep.
21:47Mahila vote has, in the past, in assembly elections, been with Mamta.
21:53This time, there are two factors which will have to be budgeted in that.
21:58Firstly, the deteriorating law and order situation in West Bengal, as perceived by a lot of people,
22:07and the fact that women have seen this deteriorating law and order situation as a huge challenge,
22:15and does that result in a sentiment against the chief minister,
22:21is a factor that would need to be budgeted into any analysis.
22:25And secondly, the BJP has tried its best to use the defeat of the recent legislation by saying that
22:35this was a vote by the non-BJP parties, the non-NDA parties, an anti-woman vote.
22:42Now, I think, how much do these two factors play a role, I think, would need to be seen.
22:48But I also would add, in conclusion on this point, that given the type of polarization that you see in
22:57West Bengal,
22:57the sharp polarization that you see in West Bengal,
23:01I sometimes wonder whether people begin by taking a position,
23:06women begin by taking a position on various factors,
23:10whether we are supporting this side or that side,
23:13and then justify the various arguments they would like to make,
23:17keeping in mind who they have decided to support.
23:21You know, put more simply, Rahul Verma, in a way,
23:25is there a gender vote at all?
23:27Do you believe gender can trump in Bengal caste, religion?
23:31Is gender, therefore, far more critical in a state like West Bengal?
23:34We've seen it in other states as well.
23:36Maharashtra, Ladki Bahin, worked for the BJP, Ladli Behna in Madhya Pradesh.
23:42Lokheer Bhandar, is that still 1,500 rupees to women still going to be the key factor in a way?
23:50So, BJP's road to power, if there is any in Bengal,
23:54then they have to break Mamta's stranglehold on,
23:58not stranglehold, but Mamta's ability to woo a large number of women voters.
24:02As the statistics you gave, like, 13% advantage among women voters,
24:07unless that basically comes down, BJP doesn't have a chance.
24:11Now, something you pointed out...
24:13BJP is promising 3,000 rupees.
24:14BJP is promising 3,000 rupees to women.
24:17So, I think, see, like, welfare matters,
24:21and there is a cycle to which this kind of welfare or freebies or cash transfers...
24:27So, they have already got this between 2016 and 2021,
24:31and they have rewarded for it.
24:33Now, this is a question for women.
24:35Is questions of security and safety trump over the welfare architecture?
24:41Or now they are going to demand more that,
24:43hey, we have been already getting this, but what about this?
24:46And I've seen some sort of, like, interviews on Maria's show yesterday,
24:51and some other things, where I think a woman said,
24:53we are getting 1,500, but I just don't want this.
24:57Why are there no jobs?
24:58Why are there no factories?
25:00We will be able to earn more.
25:02So, I think what I'm trying to say, at one election cycle,
25:06this sort of, like, you know, cash transfers work,
25:09because people think, okay, great, at least we are getting this.
25:12But once you go get this for a couple of years,
25:15then you start thinking, is it all that we deserve?
25:18Shouldn't we ask for more?
25:20And shouldn't we deserve more?
25:21And so, I think that is the crack through which,
25:26if BJP can sort of, like, convince a section of voters,
25:29then they are in the play.
25:30Otherwise, no.
25:32Okay.
25:33Critical factor there for Mahila.
25:34Two more factors.
25:35The last two M's.
25:37One is the Muslim factor.
25:39Now, this is the one factor, along with Mahila's,
25:42that has been the rock on which the TMC won three consecutive elections.
25:45Since 2011, they won, in percentage terms, 35%.
25:50This is, of course, Muslim vote, if you look at,
25:53they've steadily increased, in percentage terms, in West Bengal.
25:56You can see that that is proving to be a critical factor based on CSDS,
26:01the percentages there in Bengal.
26:04Among migrant workers, 36 lakh migrant workers from Bengal,
26:08according to a state government estimate.
26:1050 lakh migrant workers from Bengal, unofficial estimate.
26:13And over 30 lakh migrants have returned to vote,
26:17according to some estimates.
26:18And migrants, of course, will then come into the entire SIR.
26:22Have they actually got their names on the voter list or not?
26:27Reverse migration has boosted turnout among male voters in particular.
26:32Which brings me to that fifth X factor,
26:35and the final one, fourth and fifth together.
26:37The SIR exercise, does it become a boon or a bane?
26:42Does Mamta benefit from it?
26:44Or does the BJP benefit, according to you, Sandeep Shastri,
26:47given that overall 91 voters are struck off the list,
26:5127 lakh voters in adjudication?
26:56Rajdeep, the Muslim factor, the minority factor is crucial.
27:01It's important and has been important in West Bengal for long.
27:06And I think for that reason, you see a BJP strategy this time
27:10of a very, very strong, a very, very visible,
27:14a very, very direct majority consolidation attempt.
27:18This is seen in the campaign that local BJP leaders have led.
27:23So while you may speak of a minority consolidation,
27:27you are also seeing a majority consolidation happening.
27:31And whenever this happens,
27:33the majority consolidation many a time works to the advantage
27:36of the party it is in favor of.
27:40Also, when you talk of the minority vote,
27:43let's also remember that the SIR exercise did lead to a lot of deletions.
27:49And the fear is that the fear among the supporters of the TMC is
27:55that it may actually cause a challenge for them.
27:59But Rajdeep, as you said, these were the last two M's.
28:03I would like to emphasize two,
28:05which I would want you to please also add.
28:07One is the Matadar, who I think is the ultimate winner.
28:11And the Maha Dhruvi Karan that you see in West Bengal this time.
28:16For me, these are two very critical M's
28:19in deciding and defining what will happen tomorrow
28:22and what happened in the first round.
28:25You want to go into that, Rahul Verma?
28:27Do you believe SIR and its impact it's had on migrants,
28:30many of whom feared that they were off voting list?
28:33The other side is in a number of marginal seats.
28:35M, marginal seats are about 70, where the percentage were less than 5%.
28:41The number of people deleted from the lists are substantial
28:45and the BJP could get advantage.
28:47SIR, Boon or Bain, and for whom?
28:49So, two points.
28:51First, on the Muslim, I think this is not the right path for the TMC.
28:58And I'm not basically blaming them, but once you reach certain critical number
29:03in terms of, like, Muslim vote, 70-75,
29:09I think this is going to produce greater sort of, like,
29:12majority consolidation, as Sandeepji is pointing out,
29:15which is what will lead to more Maha Dhruvi Karan or polarization.
29:19So, while everyone is celebrating this 92% turnout,
29:24I'm actually worried.
29:26The reason I'm worried, because this is a sign of completely politicized society.
29:32A sign in which you cannot basically wait, like,
29:36even wait for someone else to win, right?
29:39If your side doesn't win, you think you are toast.
29:42And so, like, you know, some level of participation is great,
29:45and one should celebrate.
29:47But once a society is fully mobilized and fully politicized,
29:52the negative repercussions of those things are going to be greater.
29:56And this is large.
29:57So, SIR is one way looking at basically boosting the participation.
30:03But in some ways, SIR is also creating, inducing fear among those.
30:08So, you are seeing a large number of people returning
30:11because they think if they don't vote,
30:14they might not be on the electoral roll next time, right?
30:17And so, this is not a great sign.
30:20Okay.
30:21Either way, when I look at all these five M's,
30:24and we can keep adding more,
30:25it then portends to be a contest which could go either way.
30:31That seems to be the general belief.
30:32The BJP will hope to benefit from the polarization.
30:37On the other hand,
30:39Mamata Banerjee will do what Prashant Kishore would want to do,
30:42what Prashant Kishore told me,
30:43win a majority of the minority,
30:45in which case she then needs to win a minority of the majority.
30:49Whether that actually works as simply as that in 2026,
30:53both sides will hope that this phase,
30:55which goes to polls tomorrow,
30:57will decide the future.
30:58The BJP, can it break the citadel of Mamata Banerjee,
31:01or can Mamata Banerjee hold her own in southern Bengal,
31:05could well decide who wins the battle for Bengal.
31:08Rahul Verma and Sandeep Shastri,
31:10appreciate you joining me here on the news today.
31:13Let me turn from there to a shocker that's coming in from Maharashtra,
31:17where a stabbing incident near Thane has stunned the state.
31:20One person has been arrested after he stabbed two security guards.
31:24One of the victims has alleged that the assailant
31:26asked them their religious identities before attacking them.
31:30Chief Minister Devendra Fadnamis has described the incident
31:33as a lone wolf attack,
31:34but the suspect, Zayb Zubair Ansari,
31:37has been sent to ATS custody
31:38amidst reports that he had been influenced by ISIS videos.
31:42Take a look.
31:47A 31-year-old man identified as Zayb Zubair Ansari
31:51was arrested for allegedly stabbing two security guards
31:54in Meera Road near Mumbai.
31:56Reportedly, Ansari attacked two security guards,
31:58Rajeshwar Mishra and Subra Dosen,
32:00at an under-construction building around 4 a.m.
32:03on Sunday, the 26th of April.
32:05The duo were on duty at the time of the attack.
32:07Definitely, this is said to be a Pahlgaam-like attack,
32:11but right now the case has been transferred
32:14from Meera Bhayendra Vasai Virar police to the ATS
32:17and now the ATS is probing the case.
32:20Authorities have recovered
32:21that the accused was watching ISIS videos.
32:27He was inspired by ISIS videos.
32:31Rajeshwar Mishra suffered serious injuries,
32:33including damage to his intestines,
32:35while Subra Dosen sustained minor injuries to his back.
32:38In the FI Lodge by Subra Dosen,
32:41he alleges that Ansari attacked him with a knife
32:43after confirming his religion to be Hindu.
32:46Sen got stabbed in the back
32:47but managed to escape
32:48and rushed to his supervisor Rajeshwar Mishra's cabin.
32:52While he was reporting the incident,
32:54Zayb reached there and allegedly asked Mishra
32:56if he was a Hindu
32:56and then asked him to recite the Kalma.
32:59When Mishra failed to do so,
33:00he was stabbed by Zayb.
33:01Sen reported to have fled the scene
33:03as soon as Ansari started to attack Mishra.
33:06He hid in the backyard of the building
33:08and only emerged from there
33:09once he was sure that there was no more commotion.
33:11The police were informed.
33:13Using CCTV footage from the area,
33:15the slewets have identified Ansari.
33:17He was tracked to his rented residence
33:19in Nayanagar area.
33:20Police arrested Zayb Zubair Ansari
33:22within one and a half hours of the incident.
33:46A.T.S. and NIH
33:53According to sources, Ansari studied in the United States until 2019
33:57before returning to India and living alone in Meera Road on Trent.
34:24The ATS and NIA approving the case.
34:27Ansari was reminded to ATS custody until the 4th of May by the court.
34:31With Dipesh Tripathi in Mumbai, your report, India Today.
34:41Okay, let's turn to the big story that's coming in at the moment.
34:45A story that could send shockwaves across the world.
34:48Not just in India because a big blow now to the entire OPEC.
34:53The oil, petroleum exporters countries in the Gulf region.
34:57Amidst tensions in West Asia, UAE has decided to leave the global oil producer's body.
35:05UAE has announced that they will leave OPEC from the 1st of May.
35:09This comes, remember, amidst the West Asia conflict and the manner in which oil prices have gone out of control.
35:16Every country now looking for an energy strategy.
35:19Meanwhile, we are also getting reports.
35:22Gasoline prices in the United States have now reached $4.18 per gallon.
35:28Their highest level in four years.
35:31So UAE announcing that they are leaving OPEC.
35:34And America has now seen its highest oil price.
35:38Are we heading for an oil shock is what is being speculated across the world.
35:44And what does it mean for us in India, particularly when the government is claiming that they will not raise
35:49oil prices once elections are over tomorrow.
35:52How long can we hold on?
35:54What does this UAE exit from OPEC mean?
35:57How can the world tackle this prospective oil shock that's coming in?
36:01How long can the Indian government, the Modi government, cushion a fuel burden?
36:05Lots of questions to be answered.
36:07Joining me now, Narendra Taneja, global energy and geopolitical expert.
36:11He was, at one stage, a BJP spokesperson as well.
36:15Good to have you, Narendra, on your subject of expertise.
36:17Also, I earlier spoke to Pamela Munger.
36:20She's lead senior market analyst at Vortexa.
36:23And I want to come to you, Pamela, first.
36:25Because the big story that we've just heard, United Arab Emirates deciding to move out of OPEC starting the 1st
36:32of May.
36:32Which is suggesting that even the oil, petroleum exporting countries now facing the heat.
36:37And do not want to work within the existing system.
36:40Are we seeing the end game for OPEC and a serious energy crisis now?
36:45I mean, that was quite a big announcement.
36:48I agree.
36:48And I think we're still trying to digest that particular piece of information.
36:52But that's quite a big game changer.
36:57Is when you see these types of nations start to pull out of OPEC and say, we're going to handle
37:03this on our own.
37:05You know, it's seven days, Pamela.
37:07This is just the latest step taken.
37:10We are seeing a continuous surge in oil prices.
37:13They've crossed $110 a barrel today.
37:16We are seeing U.S. prices now reaching, gasoline prices reaching record highs.
37:21No signs of the conflict being resolved.
37:23How bad could this get?
37:25What is your biggest fear now when it comes to oil prices?
37:29Well, that's a great question.
37:31My biggest fear is that this continues on with no sign of opening up.
37:37And I think that's what everybody's biggest fear is, because that means it will capitulate into a very poor picture
37:47for the global economy.
37:49So, are we going to see these prices rise steadily if the state of Hormuz remains locked up and the
37:55U.S. continues with this blockade?
37:56Are we heading for an oil shock?
37:58Not too different from what we saw in the 1970s?
38:01Or am I being excessively alarmist?
38:05I think that for now what we've seen are kind of Band-Aid, if you will, type of reactions.
38:14And that's keeping supplies and prices somewhat limited in terms of what we're seeing in the oil markets.
38:22Also, you have to consider the strategic petroleum releases that we've seen and the consumption reaction, which is to conserve,
38:33especially in the Asian markets.
38:35But as this goes forward and continues on, yes, I think we could see, we're definitely going to see higher
38:43prices, which will eat into demand, which will cause demand destruction long term if this goes on five or six
38:50months.
38:51Because at the moment, what we are seeing, Ms. Munga, is a supply-side crisis.
38:55The reduced movement of oil through the state of Hormuz shipments have dropped to around, what, 567,000 barrels per
39:02day, down from an average of 1.85 million barrels.
39:06Iran is bearing the brunt of it, doesn't know what it can do with its oil because of this blockade.
39:10Its production is significantly lower.
39:13Do you see economies now coming under huge stress, including countries like India?
39:18Will we struggle to hold on to our oil prices?
39:22Absolutely.
39:23I think certainly we've seen India's approach has been a very good approach, increasing refinery runs mainly to cover LPG
39:33for cooking.
39:33So that's been quite positive.
39:36You've seen the Russian waiver, which has meant that India has taken a lot more Russian crude that was at
39:41sea.
39:42They're also looking at other locations like Venezuela and also taking a lot of those barrels that have been rerouted
39:51through the Red Sea into India.
39:54But India is still looking at far fewer barrels to run through its refineries.
40:02The Russian waiver makes Russian urals more expensive.
40:05So refineries now are making less on the barrel, essentially.
40:11So that's not a great picture.
40:14And overall, you know, it's going to keep economies such as India from possibly from growing as fast as they
40:24would want to.
40:25Now, I think as further this goes on, you're going to need to start to feel pain in places like
40:31in America,
40:32which is likely the last place to feel a large amount of pain in terms of prices.
40:39And that's probably a couple of months down the line.
40:42We're going to feel a lot of pain.
40:44That's a good point on which to bring in Narendra Taneja.
40:47You heard Miss Munga, who I spoke to earlier, saying that, look, sooner or later, we're going to feel pain.
40:53In India, the government has announced today, or certainly through sources, that prices will not be increased even after tomorrow
41:00when the election campaign is over.
41:02But how long can India hold on and how bad can it now get?
41:07Well, you see, we are already, Rajdeep, we are already into the biggest oil shock ever in the history of
41:14humankind.
41:16That's the situation now.
41:18The biggest oil shock ever?
41:20Absolutely.
41:21The biggest oil shock ever in the history.
41:24We are into it.
41:25Much bigger than 1970s that you referred to, Rajdeep.
41:29Now, the question is that an oil is the backbone of the global economy.
41:34It's not only about India or the US or Japan or China.
41:37It's about the whole world.
41:39And what's happening in the Persian Gulf area is basically shock the global oil industry and basically hit the very
41:47backbone of the world economy, including that of India.
41:50So we can't say that we are an exception.
41:52No country is an exception, including the United States, which is the biggest producer of oil in the world and
41:57also the biggest consumer.
41:58Since we happen to be the third largest consumer of oil in the world and the second largest importer, you
42:04know, that means that, you know, beyond a point, we will also be affected and impacted.
42:08Now, the question is that, you know, our companies have done a great job, public sector and the private sector,
42:14in terms of bringing oil from wherever they can.
42:17They bring oil from 41 different geographies.
42:19So they've done a great job, I think.
42:21However, that said, at the same time, how long you can really fight with the situation which is being now
42:27in a final term as the biggest, you know, oil crisis ever.
42:33So that's the challenge for the world economy, that's the challenge for American economy, for Chinese economy, Japanese economy, by
42:40the way, and also Indian economy.
42:42So no country is out of hand.
42:44So how does one, how does one hold on, how long can the government hold on to keeping oil prices
42:50at the level they are?
42:51Is it inevitable now, like we are seeing across the world, that oil prices will rise in this country in
42:57a few days' time?
42:58Well, it's a very important question, Razli.
43:01The question is, if you remember, in 2010, oil was decontrolled when the Manmoun Singh government was in power.
43:08In 2014, diesel was decontrolled.
43:11Decontrolled means the government had no role to play in the day-to-day prices of petroleum products, including petrol
43:17and diesel and so on.
43:18Now, the question is, that was a decision taken by the cabinet in 2010 and implemented in terms of diesel
43:24in 2014.
43:24However, at the same time, oil is a political commodity world over.
43:30World over.
43:31You see, it's 90% politics.
43:33But my own, you know, worry is that our companies, there is a mandate to our companies like Indian Oil,
43:39Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum, and also to private players, go out, reach out and bring oil from wherever you can.
43:46But for that, they need a strong balance sheet.
43:49They need a kind of, you know, an economic health that they can go and project and at the same
43:55time negotiate with.
43:56Say, all right, I want oil from you.
43:58I'm ready to pay.
43:59And you, you know, and you have to give me 10 days credit or 15 days credit and so forth.
44:04There is also shipping cost.
44:05There is insurance cost.
44:06So, it's multidimensional and extremely complex.
44:09So, I think to the best possible, what is important, these companies so far have insulated the Indian consumer to
44:16the extent possible.
44:17But if the war continue and oil prices go beyond $120 per barrel on the computer screen, however, the Indian
44:24basket prices have already exceeded $120 per barrel.
44:28That's the situation.
44:28But if oil prices keep rising and there is no kind of solution in terms of what's happening in the
44:34Gulf, then we are talking, looking at the picture where oil prices may actually go to $120, $125.
44:40In such a situation, I think our company, though they want to, but they may not be able to protect
44:45the only Indian consumer and also the Indian industrial consumer.
44:49So, it's a huge challenge for the Indian economy, huge challenge for the Indian government and also the state governments
44:55and also huge challenge for Indian companies, whether public sector or the private sector.
45:00Well, either way, what we are seeing, as you just said, possibly the biggest oil shock since the 1970s.
45:06We'll come back on another day and discuss this in even greater detail.
45:10For now, Narendra Taneja and Ms. Bunga, appreciate you joining me on the show tonight.
45:16Let's turn to tonight's Get Real India story.
45:18A shocker from Odisha's Kionjara.
45:20Daily wager dug up his sister's remains, carried them to a bank to get Rs. 9,000 in her account
45:26after officials asked him for proof of death.
45:29Bank officials have clarified they were only asking for documents.
45:33Take a look at Get Real India.
45:48In Odisha, a story that shocks the conscience and exposes the brutal edge of poverty and bureaucracy.
46:00In Kionjara district, a man dug up his sister's body two months after her death and carried her skeletal remains
46:08to a bank for just Rs. 19,000.
46:17Jitu Munda, a daily wager, had been trying to access the small savings his sister left behind, money earned from
46:25selling her cattle.
46:26Her last asset.
46:30But without paperwork, there was no access.
46:33No death certificate, no withdrawal.
46:38What followed was unthinkable.
46:42Munda exhumed her remains, walked nearly three kilometers and placed them outside the Odisha-Gramir Bank.
46:48A chilling protest against her system, he says, refused to believe him.
47:13After the video of his desperate protests went viral, the administration stepped in.
47:21Officials say, Munda has now been given Rs. 20,000 as immediate relief and the bank has released his sister's
47:28savings over Rs. 19,000 in full.
47:32But even as the money finally reaches him, the haunting image remains of a brother, forced to prove death, not
47:40with papers, but by carrying it on his shoulders.
47:44A story that moved the system, but only after it broke a man.
47:49With Ajay Nath in Kyonjhar, Bureau Report, India Today.
47:57Real shocker there.
47:59Let me turn, though, to a good news today's story.
48:02A 10-year-old from India making waves in the world of chess, Arit Kapil became the youngest Indian to
48:07achieve an international master norm.
48:09From being the youngest to defeat a grandmaster to holding the mighty Magnus Carlsen to a draw, he is the
48:15latest in India's chess revolution.
48:18Take a look.
48:24Arit Kapil is India's latest chess prodigy.
48:27At just 10 years of age, he achieved his international master norm at the Menorca International Chess Tournament held in
48:35Spain this month, becoming the youngest Indian to do so.
48:39He defeated the 2024 Junior World Champion Grandmaster, Kazbek Noberbek, in the championship.
49:04The glory comes after a series of successes for Kapil.
49:09At the age of nine, he became the youngest Indian to defeat a grandmaster.
49:14And in June last year, he held Magnus Carlsen to draw in the online title Tuesday Tournament.
49:21How did you make the match with Magnus Carlsen?
49:23How did you make the match with Magnus Carlsen?
49:26Actually, even Arit joined the tournament from the practice point of view.
49:32Luckily, the pairing with Magnus Carlsen in the second round was Magnus Carlsen.
49:47What initiated Kapil into chess was the boredom during the COVID pandemic lockdown.
49:52When Arit was five years old, it was the time of Corona, so at that time, I couldn't be able
49:57to send kids out.
49:58So basically, I was at the time of the Corona time, the moment of the tension, I was playing online
50:03games.
50:04So Arit came to me and asked me, what are you doing?
50:07I said, I'm playing games.
50:08So I told him about chess and I taught him a little bit about chess and I taught him a
50:16little bit about chess.
50:22I thought, I was playing games by flukes and I thought, I was playing games by flukes and I was
50:25playing games by flukes and I thought, I was playing games by flukes and I thought, I was playing chess
50:27for three games.
50:30Kapil plays chess for two to five hours every day.
50:33He dreams of beating his idol one day.
50:59With Manish Chaurasiya, Bureau Report, India Today.
51:05And may the young man go from strength to strength.
51:08Speaking of sport, while on a trip to Sikkim, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seen playing football with budding talents,
51:15describing the soccer session as energizing.
51:18Mr. Modi then playing football.
51:21Remember, it's a sport which is much loved in Sikkim across the Northeast, not to forget West Bengal, which goes
51:30to the polls tomorrow.
51:31Okay, speaking of polls tomorrow, the fact is that tomorrow is our exit poll day.
51:38Don't miss our special coverage.
51:39It starts at 5 p.m.
51:41There are four big states and the Union Territory of Puducherry going to the polls.
51:46Our reporters have been right there on the ground and they'll bring you all their insights.
51:51And of course, the big numbers with Pradeep Gupta and team as well.
51:55Thanks very much for joining us.
51:57You stay well, stay safe, good night, Shubhra 3, Jai Hind, Namaskar.
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