- 1 day ago
Campaigning for the second and final phase of West Bengal Assembly polls ended on Monday.
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00:00Namaskar from Kolkata, warm welcome.
00:02We come to you the entire might and team of the India Today group
00:05that have covered the West Bengal elections.
00:14We come to you from the stunning Princeph Ghar,
00:18the beautiful monument right behind us.
00:22We've travelled the length and breadth of this state.
00:25We've all culminated now to share anecdotes,
00:28to share what we saw on ground and actually give you a ringside view
00:33on how things are really shaping up in what is the mother of all battles.
00:37I want to quickly take you through my friends and colleagues,
00:41all of us who have been on the ground.
00:43Indro, my colleague Indrajit, who has been heading the West Bengal Bureau.
00:48He's been our nerve centre, all issues, problems.
00:51He's been troubleshooting right here in Kolkata.
00:55Welcome Indro, Namaskar.
00:56Namaskar, Namaskar. Welcome to Kolkata.
00:58Thank you. We have Maria, my friend and colleague,
01:03managing editor, India Today.
01:05She's been travelling a lot, Maria, over the last two weeks.
01:08And it's been...
01:10Very hot.
01:10Very hot. But really, you know, both of us are used to travelling.
01:14That's true. And we love election coverage.
01:16True.
01:16So for any journalist, the heat and thumb doesn't matter.
01:19It's a privilege.
01:20To be able to cover an election is a privilege.
01:23Anupamda.
01:24Yes.
01:25Kia dekha?
01:26Namaskar.
01:27Namushkar.
01:27Sorry, I've been trying to speak terrible Bengali.
01:29I've been castigated on the streets.
01:31Madam, chhod do na.
01:32Bangla nahi bolte.
01:33No, I've been to North Bengal.
01:35And I travelled Koojbeha, Jalpai Guri, Malda, and a lot of places.
01:41And the first phase of elections happened there.
01:43So you...
01:43So Anupam has been right up north where the BJP had made maximum,
01:47had maximised that, you know, the districts there.
01:49He's going to give us an insight.
01:51Anirban, where all have you been?
01:52I have been in Nyandigram as well as in Murshidabad.
01:55The high voltage stake, I must say,
01:58because Humayun Kabir and there is lots of violence and all.
02:02So it's an amazing experience.
02:04So a lot of the...
02:05And Tapash, Tapash, where all have you been?
02:07The last time I spoke to Tapash,
02:08he was in the middle of a mob in Murshidabad.
02:10Yes, I've been covering Murshidabad and Malda,
02:13which happens to be one of the most polarised districts.
02:17Few of the most polarised districts.
02:19And on 24th Pargana covering Mathuva as well.
02:21So I got that feeling of religious,
02:24how people think about getting religion into the politics
02:28and how it is beneficial to the politicians
02:30and how common people have started perceiving that
02:32what exactly how they are being used.
02:34You know, there are various facets of this election.
02:36What Tapash just said, religion.
02:38Till now, West Bengal has been subaltern regionalism.
02:42Has that mould been broken?
02:43Is religion now trumping that regionalism that we speak of?
02:47Many suggest, come what may,
02:49on the 4th of May,
02:50there will be a shade of saffron
02:52that will be introduced in the politics of West Bengal.
02:55How deep that shade is,
02:57come the 4th of May, we'll decide.
02:59But let me quickly toss it to my colleagues
03:01in terms of where they've been.
03:02What is that one report
03:04that they think gives us a basic insight
03:06on what really is happening on the ground barrier?
03:09I'm going to put out my report on Shingur
03:12because that's where the rise of Mahmouda Banerjee starts.
03:17A protest which led to Mahmouda Banerjee's rise
03:20and what has happened to that land,
03:231,000 acres of land which was acquired
03:25for the Tata Nano project.
03:26What happens to that?
03:28What has happened?
03:28Because people would be curious to know
03:29whether, you know, industries have come up.
03:32Here's that report.
04:02What?
04:03We want not to pay for 15 days, we need to pay for this, we need to change.
04:20What is the election this time?
04:23We don't support the election.
04:24You don't support the election?
04:26The election system is a corrupted system.
04:28How does it?
04:29Who does it? Who does it?
04:30The election commission.
04:31Who is the politician?
04:33Everyone is criminal.
04:34Who is the case in the name of the police?
04:36Those are politicians.
04:37We are educated.
04:40If we have to pay for the election, we will not pay for the election.
04:44But whoever is the politician, who is the judge?
04:47Everybody is the case in the name of the police.
04:48We don't do anything.
04:52We don't want to go anywhere.
04:54We don't give money.
04:55We don't give the vote.
04:56We don't give the vote.
04:57We are openly saying that we don't give the vote.
05:00We don't give the vote.
05:02Who is the country and the state?
05:04What is the qualification?
05:06One report, as she said, Singur.
05:08And this is the question that I had asked the minister in charge, the industry minister of West Bengal, Shoshi
05:13Panja.
05:14And I had an interaction, detailed interaction with her for our Bangla network, Bangla channel on the network, Achtaq Bangla.
05:20And there was some direct question as to what would the government want to show as its achievement in the
05:26past five years?
05:27I would want our audiences to listen to the answer first.
05:31I said, why did you have to have a perspective of that?
05:35What do you know if we take a perspective of a video about who you are doing that?
05:39Why are you struggling to get one of the people?
05:41Let's say land, land bank, all of them have been done.
05:44Now, 0 mandate is lost, no strikes, no load shedding.
05:48Good.
05:49I think the same thing is to be at the local level.
05:52We have to put a high level level at BJP level.
05:56But what do we think?
05:59The thing that we have to do as people are very studying great people.
06:02We have to tell them they are very serious and not that great people are in the industry for that
06:07long time.
06:09If you look like we have a great global base, we have to thank the beautiful people.
06:13We have to accept it.
06:15It's PHP!
06:17We have to talk about the image in the industry.
06:18That's how it is.
06:20Our industry minister says,
06:23we will complain and phone.
06:25We will attend.
06:26We will call the local level.
06:30We will call it.
06:31We will call it.
06:33We will call it.
06:35We will call it.
06:35We will call it.
06:36We will call it.
06:38We will call it.
06:44Okay, so that is what the defense,
06:46you just heard that, the defense
06:48of the government there. You know, I want to talk
06:50to both Anirban and Taupesh because
06:52one report and, you know,
06:54we will maybe put our reports together,
06:56which I thought in this political
06:58landscape important to
07:00tell that story is the story
07:02of the deletions. Because a lot of
07:04people have their paperwork packed down but
07:06yet haven't found their names and it's caused a fair
07:08amount of discontent on ground. Not just
07:10discontent, it's raised serious questions about
07:13disenfranchisement and questions
07:14where the election commission and possibly the
07:16Supreme Court is concerned. I have spent
07:18a full day outside the tribunal,
07:20you know, because the Supreme Court came back and
07:22said that, you know, 21st
07:24and 27th were two dates. Till
07:26then you could actually address your
07:28issues and if the tribunal clears, you can vote.
07:30And it's a flood of people desperate
07:32out there to get their names in.
07:34You are from Malda from Malda. How far?
07:38From Malda from Malda?
07:40It's about 400 km. 400 km.
07:42Because the judge is sitting here.
07:44So, the judge is sitting here.
07:45The hope is that I have everything right.
07:48So, let's go and see what happens.
07:51I have to go back to Malda.
07:52I have to go to the boat because I am a teacher.
07:54You are what? I am a teacher.
07:56You are a teacher.
07:57I have to take the boat two times.
07:59I have to take the election.
08:02After 5 a week, I have to take the election.
08:03This is my name.
08:05Since I was running in training,
08:06I am also training.
08:07Who is training?
08:10That means voting is not allowed.
08:15I have to take the election duty.
08:16Election duty.
08:17You have to take the election duty one time.
08:18Yes, two times, teacher.
08:20Yes, two times.
08:20I will take the election duty together.
08:23I mean, you have to take the election duty a few times.
08:27That means your action duty should not be done.
08:27So, you are election duty but you don't see yourself.
08:30In my house, I have 4 children. My mother, father and my sister.
08:36My father's name is okay, my mother's name is okay.
08:39But my sister's name is cut.
08:42I got a notice here in Bangla.
08:46It says that the daughter of Amun Agjoneer was a child.
08:51The daughter of Amun Agjoneer was a child.
08:52The daughter of Amun Agjoneer was a child.
08:58What does it mean?
08:59It means that the daughter of Amun Agjoneer was linked.
09:05There are 6 people who have been linked with him.
09:07There is a doubt.
09:10I have also told two people about how this is going.
09:12I have also called the daughter of Amun Agjoneer.
09:14The daughter of Amun Agjoneer is saying,
09:15I don't know how this is happening.
09:17I have come to the legal documents.
09:18I have come here.
09:20If you want to see the documents, you can see.
09:24Why is my name cut?
09:25There is no wrong spelling.
09:28I have given the word for 2009.
09:31What do you do, brother?
09:33We?
09:34Building contractor.
09:35We are building contractor.
09:37What's your job?
09:39What will I do?
09:40What will I do?
09:40There is a notice.
09:41You see, this is a notice.
09:42It was written in Bangla.
09:44What is written in Bangla?
09:45What is written in Bangla?
09:46My father's name is not Min.
09:47No.
09:48Because sheikh is sheikh?
09:50Sheikh was the first name, but now it was last month, 2 or 2 months.
09:54The first sheikh was the name, and now sheikh is the name, so she didn't get it?
09:58No, no.
09:59That's the case.
10:00Did someone listen to that?
10:02No.
10:03When the notice came, it was gone.
10:05All documents were collected.
10:07After all, it was deleted.
10:09Did you travel only 400 km in this summer?
10:12No.
10:12I don't have any involvement, so how did the notice come?
10:18How did he stay here?
10:20Who?
10:20He said, we're the minister.
10:22He'll take care of it.
10:23He'll take care of it.
10:27Imit Saji is saying.
10:29He'll take care of it.
10:30He'll take care of it.
10:35We're going to take care of it.
10:36Okay, the detect, delete or deport.
10:40You have to be scared of it.
10:42If you don't have a name in the voter list, then we'll deport.
10:47We'll take care of it.
10:48That's why it's hurt.
10:49We'll report it here?
10:51Yes.
10:51We'll report it here?
10:52What will we do?
10:56Our documents are all right.
10:59Priti, I just want to add.
11:00You know, you spoke about the tribunal.
11:02Yeah.
11:03There was so much of hope.
11:04Look at the amount of, you know, amount of suffrage as far as people are concerned.
11:09Because first, it was the election commission and the progeny mapping.
11:12Then it was the EROs and AEROs.
11:14That was the level.
11:15After you cleared that level, and if your name was not there, then it was the micro observers.
11:20Then it went to the judicial officers who were placed by the Supreme Court.
11:25Only 19.
11:26And imagine, no, not the judicial officers now.
11:28The judicial officers came in the beginning, before this phase.
11:32When the judicial officers cleared your name and your name was still not on the electoral rolls,
11:37then it has now gone to the 19 appellate judges.
11:41Imagine the layer through which one person, if your name was not there on the electoral roll,
11:46this is what that person had to go through in the past three months.
11:49And now the Supreme Court has said that if your name is cleared by these 19 appellate tribunals,
11:55by 21st of April and 27th of April, then they would be able to vote on 23rd, which is already
12:02done,
12:02and 29th, which is the final phase.
12:05How many people were cleared for the first?
12:07No idea.
12:08It was 139.
12:09There are more than 34 lakh cases pending before the appellate tribunal.
12:12Also in law, I just want to tell our viewers that there are over 34 lakh appeals.
12:17But that figure hasn't been made official.
12:19Nobody knows how many appeals.
12:20But that came up during the hearing in the Supreme Court.
12:24True.
12:24That figure was told before the Supreme Court.
12:28Imagine 19 judges, 34 lakh appeals, and only 139.
12:32And 139 cases.
12:33Let's quickly dip in to Tapash and Indro's report, and then we'll come back to them.
12:40Chinatown, part of Kolkata's rich cultural heritage, home to Indians of Chinese origin who have lived there for generations,
12:47is now under the shadow of the EC's special intensive revision of electoral rolls.
12:53There is panic in the locality as deletions have triggered deep anxiety over identity and citizenship,
12:59and not all are keen to speak to the media.
13:02At a house near the Chinese Kali Temple, a worried resident mustered courage and shared her anguish.
13:08We are proud to be Indians, to live over here, and we don't call ourselves as Chinese.
13:15We may be Chinese, but we don't, because we are born here and brought up here and everything, yeah, from
13:23small childhood only.
13:25My parents also from childhood also.
13:28So, we are proud to be in India, to call ourselves as Indians.
13:34For many, the deletions fail like a denial of belonging.
13:38My mother's name, my three-year-old daughter's name.
13:42We are the fourth generation.
13:44It's been a pain, right?
13:45Because the vote is gone.
13:47Among the lacks waiting for the decision by the tribunal is Manmata Nath Bhomik.
13:52The 87-year-old resident of Behala, who retired as a central government employee at the Port Trust,
14:00came from East Pakistan in the 50s.
14:02He had secured his citizenship certificate back then, which is now his most valued possession.
14:22In the Batrigaach village in Kuch, Bihar, Jajima Bibi herds goats to survive.
14:28After her husband's death, she has relied on her old age pension to afford basic medication.
14:34She fears the deletion from the voter list will end the pension as well.
14:38Many members from her family are struck off the list.
14:41Meditation has been put in a position.
14:44They must have been put in the country but in the last minute.
14:47They must be important for us and tell us the importance.
14:50They must have known.
14:51So, Tapish we saw that report that the both of you together filed but your biggest observation
14:57in this election, we've spoken about the SIR, I think that is the landscape.
15:03that's pretty much formed the landscape of this election.
15:06And then there are the sub-factors.
15:08But go ahead.
15:09Well, I remember a name called Azizur Rahman.
15:12This person resides in Debipur in Murshidabad.
15:16When I went to that village,
15:18basically Murshidabad and Malda is known to be a minority-dominated district.
15:21And when you talk of minority vote bank,
15:23it always goes like it's a consolidated vote bank of Trinamool Congress.
15:27What I felt like reaching there,
15:30these are the educated class students who just graduated.
15:35They were searching for jobs.
15:36And they took me to a mosque where they were holding a health test
15:40to facilitate for those people who are trying to apply in tribunal.
15:46When I asked him, is it for Muslims?
15:47He said, no, no, no, it's not for Muslims.
15:49It's for Muslim, Hindu.
15:50Even if you can come, I'll help you out as well.
15:53What he said that enough of playing communal politics.
15:57We have understood that our community being used as a vote bank.
16:05And we want people to come together.
16:09And since a lot of parties have made a lot of commitment,
16:11we'll do help desk, we'll help you out,
16:14how to apply to tribunals, all the political parties.
16:16He said that nobody came forward.
16:19Now some political party wants us to go and hit the street
16:22and do some vandalism and register a protest.
16:25When SIR happened, a lot of people said that they will not allow it to happen in Bengal.
16:30It happened.
16:30When it happened, a lot of people said we won't let any names to be deleted.
16:35Now, lakhs of names have been deleted.
16:36Now we have only election commission laid down guidelines
16:39that we can apply to tribunals.
16:41We don't have any other options right now.
16:42So this is high time that leaving apart this Hindu, Muslim, Sikh politics,
16:48we come together and we work together for a better cause for us as well as for the society.
16:53It's a big message.
16:54To the political class in general.
16:56Absolutely, absolutely.
16:57It's a very different kind of a message in a polarized election like this.
17:01When you talk of Madhuaj, Muslim.
17:02Mistrust for the entire political class.
17:03Mistrust for the entire political fraternity.
17:05So on that, what we have seen that 81% of women have voted on 2021.
17:12And this year, what happens, it's 92%.
17:14And whether it's having a reprecation of the SIR or not,
17:18because I went to Chinatown as well, as well, many places in the tribunals as well.
17:23The women are just howling because they are saying my surname was changed after my marriage.
17:28And after that, I was being subtracted from the voter list.
17:32And they were just like, they were losing hope.
17:35As they already had lost, as one of the women, Silesia, from the Chinatown.
17:42She said that, I am the fourth generation over here, staying here.
17:46But my name was deleted.
17:48And my father already died.
17:50My mother died.
17:50That's very interesting because when we talk about minority in West Bengal and in Calcutta,
17:55we only talk about the Muslim community.
17:56But it's a minuscule minority.
17:59You know, the Indian-Chinese community.
18:00But even the majority, like the Matua votes, they have been cut.
18:03So, that is one of the factors, which is the SIR factor.
18:06Nobody quite knows, Mariya, which side it will cut.
18:08So, we are going from one factor to the other.
18:10So, we don't know what will happen because a fair amount of votes have been deleted in the Matua community
18:15as well.
18:15That voted for the BJP in 2024 and 2021.
18:20That's right.
18:20So, Preeti, I traveled to North 24 Parganaz and I went straight to Thakur Badi, which is the Thakur Matua
18:26temple,
18:27which is almost like the nerve center from which the BJP's Matua politics begins.
18:32You have the House of Shantanu Thakur and another MLA of the BJP ride there as well.
18:37So, you speak to the Matua's there.
18:39That sentiment for the BJP is evident.
18:41But again, there are several pockets even among the Matua's,
18:46like because Matua's constitute close to 2 to 3 crores in the context of Bengal.
18:51They are spread in North 24 Parganaz, in Nadia district and also in South 24 Parganaz.
18:56So, in Nadia is where the significant percentage of Matua voters...
19:02Have gone to the BJP.
19:03Run-of-heart areas like that.
19:04Yes.
19:05So, in that district, it has been cut.
19:08When you speak to Matua's, the sentiment for the BJP is evident.
19:12You will sense that they will obviously speak of the BJP.
19:16They'll speak about Hindu rights.
19:17They speak about how things have changed for them in the last five years,
19:22say, ever since Citizenship Amendment Act came into court.
19:25So, you get that sentiment.
19:26But again, I am saying that, you know, we have been speaking about the SIR.
19:29There is a 64 lakh deletion which has happened of Hindu voters as well.
19:33Is it largely concentrated in Nadia district?
19:36Was there anger against the BJP and the central government where the Matua community is concerned?
19:41But not in North 24 Parganaz.
19:43Not in North 24.
19:43It may be in Nadia district where there has been deletion.
19:46I'll tell you what has happened with the Matua community is that over the past seven, eight years,
19:53or maybe I would say since 2019, the BJP has been able to organize support within the Matua community.
20:00Earlier, it was the left front.
20:02Then Mamata Banerjee barged into it and she promised a lot of, you know, things to the Matua community.
20:07And finally, it was the BJP which started wooing the Matua's with the CAA.
20:11Now, imagine what the Matua's are.
20:13When Prime Minister went to Thakur Bari and met Beena Pani Debi.
20:17Yeah, Beena Pani Debi was the matriarch of the Matua community, you know, and at Thakur Bari, at Thakur Nagar.
20:24And the BJP started its campaign and started wooing the Matua's because they sense that there is a possible, you
20:31know,
20:32a lot of partition trauma within the Matua community.
20:35They are scattered in certain districts, but as Maria said, mostly in North 24 Pargana and Nadia.
20:41And BJP sensed a chance there.
20:43It worked for them with the CAA promise.
20:45What has happened with the SIR, the problem with the SIR is that even though the CAA is now an
20:51act,
20:52most of the Matua's have not applied for CAA because you have to give a declaration that you are a
20:58foreigner,
20:59that you belong to Bangladesh or Afghanistan or Pakistan.
21:02So if they do that, their entire life is unsettled because they have all the cards.
21:07Right, they already have it.
21:08So their life would be unsettled if they do that.
21:10So you're saying there is a bit of anger in India?
21:12So there is a bit of anger because it's a paradox.
21:15They wanted citizenship.
21:17They did not apply for CAA.
21:19That has affected them in the SIR.
21:21And they don't find their names.
21:22And they don't find their names.
21:23Okay, so factor number one is SIR.
21:25And like we pointed out, it's a double-edged sword as well.
21:29At one end, there is the minority community where massive names have been cut out.
21:33And you heard that in our reports from Murshidabad, from Malda, Uttar Dinajpur,
21:37on the kind of deletions these districts have seen.
21:41And will that lead to anger and galvanization of the minority vote from Amta Banerjee, we'll discuss later.
21:46But then there is also the Hindu community.
21:49Some of them, like the Mutua community, in part still with the BJP, like Maria pointed out.
21:55But in part angry with the central government because the promise came in from the central government.
22:00And today they don't find their names deleted.
22:02So double-edged sword there.
22:03I just want to add, I went to a village in Jalpaipudi where several people have applied for CEA.
22:09And few people have also received the certificate of CEA.
22:13So they were from Bangladesh.
22:16Their ancestors came from Bangladesh.
22:18And they have a sense of fear that if we didn't get this CEA certificate,
22:23we might be removed from this part or we might be pushed to Bangladesh.
22:30Okay, now before we move to our second big factor, the second X factor in this election,
22:34a lot has also been made about the massive voter turnout.
22:37A lot of that turnout is also because of the SIR deletions,
22:41because 11% of the population of West Bengal has been cut.
22:44So if you actually do the math in terms of proportion, the percentage will rise.
22:48You know, it's almost like a political society.
22:50Politics plays such an inherent role, not perhaps in our lives in Calcutta,
22:55in the urban nerve centers, but those people who are in the rural belt,
23:00for them, the local panchayat is so, so important in delivery of, you know, the government schemes.
23:06And therefore, if they don't align themselves with the ruling party,
23:10and that's the unfortunate reality of West Bengal ground politics,
23:13they feel that they might lose out.
23:15And therefore, the urge to vote and therefore the sense of urgency with the SIR,
23:20it has been compounded.
23:22Because a lot of people feel that if, even though their names are there,
23:25they have come to know about somebody or the other in their periphery,
23:29in their neighborhood, whose names have been deleted.
23:30There's a sense of fear.
23:31And ultimately, if the deletions hadn't happened,
23:34then I would think the voting percentage would at best be 2% more than what it was
23:38the last time around.
23:39Okay, so that's factor number one.
23:40Let's now get on to the second big X factor.
23:43And that is huge.
23:44And that is 15 years of anti-incumbency.
23:46Right?
23:47I would think we all agree that anti-incumbency is a huge factor this election.
23:50Well, absolutely.
23:51It is, right?
23:51It is.
23:51It's 15 years.
23:5215 years.
23:53It has to happen.
23:54It's natural and it's absolutely obvious.
23:56How big is it?
23:57Is my question.
23:58And if you make a distinction here, Preeti,
23:59that if this anti-incumbency is against the TMC or Bengal Chief Minister,
24:04I would say that between BJP and the power, seat of power,
24:10that is Nobunna in Kolkata is Mahmata Banerji.
24:13When you speak to people, they speak about cut money, corruption.
24:17They speak about problems.
24:19They speak about everything.
24:20In fact, I've met women also, Preeti,
24:22who have said that, you know, I would rather get a chakri.
24:25Where is chakri?
24:26Or give me 15 days of jobs rather than giving me 15 days of, you know, 1,500 rupees.
24:33I have not heard 3,000 rupees.
24:35That is the promise that has been made by the BJP.
24:37But I would say that that factor of Mahmata Banerji,
24:42is there a Mahmata voter?
24:44May not be.
24:45But Trinamore Congress is Mahmata Banerji.
24:47Mahmata Banerji is Trinamore Congress.
24:49But if there is a distinction, because the BJP perhaps understood that.
24:52They have attacked TMC for all the cut money and corruption.
24:56They have not made a direct attack against Mahmata Banerji
24:58because they knew that in 2021 that backfired.
25:01True.
25:01Mahmata Banerji is holding up there.
25:04Anti-incumbency, a lot of noise,
25:06but Mahmata Banerji is a factor, perhaps the X factor of this election.
25:10What you say, I agree.
25:12It is an X factor, but you asked a very important question.
25:14Is there a Mahmata vote?
25:16In Bengal, I feel Mahmata Banerji does have a cult following
25:20amongst a section of women.
25:22And the anger is against the oppression of local leadership,
25:25which is rightly so.
25:26Because, yeah, the misuse of power by local leadership.
25:29And you ask them to make a,
25:30you don't even need to ask them to make a distinction
25:32because they'll end with Mahmata bhalo,
25:34but Paribartam because of these.
25:36And that confuses you.
25:37I would also like to make a point, Preeti.
25:39This time around, it's not only about Trinamul Congress
25:42because Mahmata have been off late projecting herself.
25:44You vote for me.
25:44You don't have to think about candidates.
25:46When I went to Furfura Sharif, I met Tauha Siddiqui.
25:49Tauha and Abbas, both are very, very influential Sufi saints.
25:54And they have been a religious leader over a period of time.
25:58What Tauha said that this time around, Mahmata Banerji is good.
26:00She might have some problem in taking decisions off late,
26:04but she is a good politician.
26:06But he named few TMC leaders in certain constituencies
26:11where they stated that we will cast our vote against the candidates.
26:16We are not against Trinamul Congress,
26:17but we'll cast our vote against the local level candidates.
26:20Local levels.
26:21This point.
26:21But Preeti, just to add to that,
26:23the point that was being made by Tapas.
26:25You know, so if you reverse that conversation,
26:27what we were starting with,
26:28TMC is bad, Mahmata is good.
26:31Mahmata is good, TMC is bad.
26:33And finally, it comes to the candidate.
26:34If the candidate is,
26:36if they are not happy with it,
26:38then the result is clear.
26:39I just want to add that I got a sense in rural areas
26:42that anti-incumbency is a major factor in urban areas,
26:45but not a very major factor in rural areas.
26:48You draw that distinction?
26:49Yes, yes.
26:50I am drawing the distinction
26:51because I have spoken with some Muslim doctors,
26:55women doctors.
26:56They said that the unemployment
26:58and these are the things which are affecting us.
27:01Anupam, you know, I really,
27:02I shouldn't ask this question,
27:04but this is also a narrative in this election
27:05which will come down to.
27:06You spoke to Muslim doctors in the rural belt.
27:08Did you speak to the Hindus as well in the rural belt?
27:10Yes, yes, yes.
27:11They also seem,
27:11you don't see the anti-incumbency as much?
27:14Hindus are making a distinction.
27:17They are somehow feeling that anti-incumbency is a factor,
27:21but for Muslims,
27:23especially the rural areas, rural belt,
27:26the SIR factor is the prominent factor.
27:29So anti-incumbency is what we've spoken of.
27:32Many would suggest,
27:33yes, you know, in pockets it's huge.
27:36Most of us have felt it.
27:37We've heard it 15 years down the line,
27:39but is it a negative vote
27:42or is it a positive vote?
27:44Some would suggest
27:45if there is anti-incumbency
27:47becomes a factor
27:47and I would think most of us would agree
27:49it's a negative vote for Mamata Banerjee
27:51where the BJP is becoming a default option
27:54because seemingly
27:55there is also an inherent distrust
27:57and that's where the paradox comes in
27:58against the BJP.
27:59Can I just add one thing?
28:02Just on 23rd,
28:03while we were wrapping up
28:05at the end of the election,
28:06I met a family,
28:07husband and wife.
28:08Wife says,
28:09Didi is good,
28:10we are getting Lokkit Vandaveri.
28:11Husband says,
28:12I'm staying in Giridhi
28:13for eight years.
28:15And I want to have been an industry
28:16I would have come back.
28:17I am going to take a break
28:20because I would think
28:22after this break
28:23we'll come to what I feel
28:24is the biggest factor
28:25in this election.
28:26Mahila, women.
28:27There are a lot of M's
28:28in this election,
28:29by the way.
28:29There's minority,
28:30there is Mahila,
28:32there is Modi.
28:33And there is Mamata.
28:34And there is Mahmata.
28:35So,
28:36four M's.
28:37And yeah,
28:37there is a fair amount of M's.
28:38So,
28:39factor number three,
28:39we've given you the first two factors.
28:41Factor number three
28:42is identity politics.
28:44Many would suggest
28:44Mamata Banerjee needs
28:46a majority of the minority vote
28:48and a minority of the majority vote
28:50where West Bengal is concerned.
28:51Let's talk now
28:52how the BJP is hoping to break
28:55what has been the traditional mold
28:56in which West Bengal is cast,
28:58which is identity politics,
29:00which is subaltern regionalism
29:02versus nationalism.
29:04Hindutva.
29:05How is it panning out?
29:06Indro, you want to go first?
29:072021,
29:08Mamata Banerjee
29:10was basically defeated
29:12the sense of Hindutva
29:14and nationalism
29:15with regional pride.
29:18Bengali Asmita.
29:19This time,
29:20do you see that mold breaking?
29:22You know,
29:23I feel in the past several years,
29:25they have crafted a campaign
29:28where they really feel
29:29that if it is about
29:31Hindutva nationalism,
29:33then the only way
29:34that they can counter it
29:34is with Bengali sub-nationalism.
29:37Therefore,
29:37Mamata Banerjee
29:38talks about Bengali pride.
29:39You see all their speeches
29:40and how it has been crafted.
29:422021,
29:42it was
29:42Bangla Niger Meke Chai.
29:44That was the campaign
29:45of Bengal wants its own daughter.
29:47And now,
29:47they are saying
29:50which means that
29:51one who is fighting
29:52for Bengal,
29:53or Bengal's pride.
29:56And of course,
29:58that.
29:58And so,
29:58they are talking about
29:59Bengal,
29:59Bengali pride,
30:00Bengal's mother,
30:01Bengal's daughter.
30:02So,
30:02it's about
30:03Mamata Banerjee
30:03represents Bengal.
30:04She is the real Bengali.
30:06And therefore,
30:07that Bohira Gautha card.
30:08And it's a paradox
30:09for the Trinamu.
30:10Because as soon as you
30:11say Bohira Gautha,
30:13then obviously,
30:13the question comes,
30:14what about Kirti Asad?
30:15What about Yusuf Padar?
30:16So,
30:16what they say is...
30:17Plus the icons of West Bengal,
30:22Rovind Nath Tagore
30:23and Nitae Subhastan.
30:24they nitpick on the BJP leaders
30:26when they say
30:26Bunkim Da,
30:27or when they misquote somebody.
30:29So,
30:29they will nitpick
30:29and they will amplify this.
30:31But what happens is,
30:32the question always comes back
30:34to the Trinambul Congress.
30:35What about Kirti Asad,
30:36Yusuf Padar?
30:36And then they say,
30:37we are talking about
30:39people in Bengal.
30:40So,
30:40it's irrespective of language.
30:42And there's an intervention
30:43on the other side
30:43that has been done
30:45by Home Minister Amit Shah
30:46repeatedly
30:46in the press conferences
30:48and also in rallies,
30:49Zaprithi,
30:50that
30:51Bengali medium mein padha hua,
30:53Bengali born,
30:55Bengal born,
30:56local person
30:58will become the BJP
30:59chief minister
31:00in case if they get the mandate.
31:01So,
31:01I think they understood
31:03that it was not just...
31:04The narrative that she was setting.
31:04Yes.
31:05The narrative that she was setting.
31:06She was setting
31:06that it was Mamta versus who
31:08they answered that.
31:09But again,
31:09about linguistic identity,
31:10I would say
31:11there has been that emphasis
31:13that even in the press conferences
31:14of the BJP
31:15that along with
31:16Home Minister Amit Shah
31:17are faces of who all?
31:19These are local leaders.
31:20Shuvendu Adhikari to...
31:22Shamik Bhattacharya.
31:23Shamik Bhattacharya
31:23has been given the seat
31:24as the BJP president
31:25precisely because of that.
31:27Because of...
31:27And look at Anurag Thakur
31:29coming here
31:30and having fish.
31:31Exactly, sir.
31:31What we have seen last time around
31:33there was a centralized control
31:34of the BJP leadership
31:36from Delhi.
31:37This time around
31:37you will see
31:38it was decentralized
31:39and all the powers
31:40to take decisions
31:41were given to
31:42the Bengali leadership
31:44here in West Bengal
31:45where we have seen
31:46Amit Shah, Anurag Thakur
31:47chipping in
31:47very late.
31:49But finally
31:49from the day one...
31:50Ensuring that
31:51Kailash BJ Vargyas
31:52of the world
31:52would become extremely
31:53unpopular in 2021
31:54are kept out of this election.
31:56I would disagree with Tapas
31:57on this.
31:57I would still say
31:58that the central BJP
31:59controls a lot of the decisions
32:00Anurag Thakur
32:01coming on that
32:02but the optics
32:03is a little different.
32:04There is more feedback
32:06that's coming from Bengal
32:07that the higher-ups
32:08are taking care of.
32:10But the sheer fact
32:10that at one end
32:11you have somebody
32:12who is as muscular
32:14Hindutva Wadi
32:15or seemingly
32:16like a Shuvendu Adhikari
32:17who begins his rallies
32:19with a Jai Shri Ram
32:20and then you balance it
32:21with a party president
32:22like Shamik Bhattacharya
32:24who is seen as this
32:24liberal intellectual face
32:26of West Bengal
32:28for the BJP.
32:30They have to align
32:31with Bengali identity
32:32and that is why
32:33first initially
32:34came Jai Makali
32:36and Madhurga
32:37because in 2021
32:39there was no
32:39Makali or Madhurga
32:41there was only
32:41Jai Shri Ram.
32:42So they started
32:43with Jai Makali
32:44and Jai Madhurga
32:45then they shifted
32:45their focus on
32:46fish eating
32:49BJP candidates
32:50BJP leaders
32:50who are coming here
32:51to Bengal
32:51and eating fish
32:53and aligning
32:54themselves
32:54with the Bengali
32:56identity.
32:56So that was
32:57a very integrated
32:59effort by BJP
33:00this time.
33:01They tried to
33:03align themselves
33:04with Bengali identity
33:06Bengali asmita
33:07Has it been accepted?
33:09What do you see on ground?
33:10It's found in those.
33:12Partly it has been accepted.
33:13Mamata Panerji
33:14understands that
33:15she has
33:15the Bengali asmita
33:17and linguistic identity
33:18ingrained in her
33:19so she is wearing
33:20it right there
33:21but when the BJP
33:22has been repeatedly
33:23questioning
33:23are you Hindu enough
33:24that's where
33:25she wants to say
33:26forget about that
33:27I'm going to talk
33:27about nationalism.
33:28The sheer fact
33:29Indro
33:30that in the last
33:31one year
33:31Mamata Banerji
33:32has opened
33:33three temples
33:34and the first
33:36chief minister
33:37to sit on
33:38the consecration
33:38ceremony
33:39of the Jagannath
33:39temple in Bengal.
33:40Mamata Banerji
33:40as a three time
33:42chief minister
33:43and so many
33:43decades of experience
33:44as an astute
33:45politician
33:46she has understood
33:46that the template
33:48is majoritarian
33:49Hindutwa
33:50across India
33:51right now
33:51and she can't
33:52flee that
33:53so she has
33:53understood that
33:54she has accepted
33:55that and she has
33:56responded to that
33:57with her Jagannath
33:58temple.
33:59A fourth big
34:00X factor
34:00and that is
34:01the personality
34:02cult
34:03you have Mamata
34:05Banerji
34:05versus Narendra
34:06Modi
34:06nobody else
34:07is on the ticket
34:07here
34:08it's these two
34:09people
34:09which is Didi
34:10and the minute
34:11you say
34:11Dada
34:11they know
34:12who Dada is
34:12Dada is not
34:13Shavindu Adhikari
34:13Dada is not
34:14Shamik Bhattacharya
34:15Dada is Modi
34:16and is it
34:17how are you
34:18perceiving this
34:19battle to be
34:19Indro very quickly
34:20encapsulated for us
34:21absolutely
34:21and that also
34:22is a paradox
34:23for the BJP
34:24because every time
34:25you say Modi
34:25is on the ticket
34:262024 Lok Sabah
34:28Modi was on the ticket
34:29and that the BJP
34:30lost out a few seats
34:31they got 12
34:34they couldn't retain 18
34:35so that remains a problem
34:37for the BJP
34:38because Mamata Banerji
34:39you know
34:39Trinambu Congress
34:40that's an advantage
34:41because she is the
34:42chief ministerial face
34:43and therefore
34:43as Maria said
34:44that the BJP
34:45had to come out
34:45with this response
34:46that yes
34:47whoever becomes
34:48our chief minister
34:48if we win
34:49is going to be
34:50a son of the soil
34:51it's going to be
34:51a Bengal
34:51but Takash the vote
34:52is being taken
34:53in Prime Minister Modi's name
34:54wherever you are going
34:55the BJP candidate
34:56is only putting forth
34:58the Prime Minister's picture
34:59and what he has done
35:00double injured
35:00he is at the centre
35:01absolutely
35:01there are two reasons
35:02post 1977
35:03we never had in Bengal
35:05a centre and a state
35:06same government
35:06so Bengal have been
35:08deprived in multiple locations
35:09even during
35:10the left regime
35:11and this time around also
35:13people want to have a feel
35:14that what if it happens
35:15if the centre and the state
35:16have a same government
35:17you see the development
35:18that's happening in Assam
35:19so people often travel
35:21from Calcutta
35:22to Assam, Guati
35:23they see the development
35:24if that can happen
35:25there in the north east
35:26why can't it happen
35:27in Kolkata
35:27or in West Bengal
35:28that's the question
35:29that again
35:30everyone is floating
35:30that is there
35:30okay Maria
35:31so look Bengal
35:33is BJP's unfinished project
35:36they have managed
35:37they understand fully well
35:39that in post 2014 BJP
35:42which is Prime Minister Modi
35:43and Home Minister
35:43Amit Shah's BJP
35:44the emphasis on Bengal
35:46has to be there
35:47because this is also
35:48the cultural capital
35:49in many ways
35:50so if nationalism
35:52and Hinduism
35:53is ingrained
35:53in that
35:54Shama Prasad Mukherjee's land
35:56so they have Anga
35:57and they have Kalinga
35:58and Bunga is left
35:59I want the Bengalis
36:00to come in on this
36:01right
36:01that Bengalis
36:02Maria have you noticed
36:03don't like weak leadership
36:05they like aggression
36:06they like their leader
36:07they put them up
36:08in a pedestrian
36:08they want the aggressiveness
36:10they don't like weak
36:11we are from the land
36:12of Subhas Chandra Bose
36:13what else do you want
36:14as well as more grounded
36:16because you have seen
36:17when we are comparing
36:18the personality of Modi
36:19and Mamata
36:20Mamata is more grounded
36:22and when she goes
36:24to any of the campaign
36:25she says
36:25that was more grounded
36:31means don't do that
36:32one thing different
36:33let him finish
36:34don't do that
36:36I will give you
36:37this kind of things
36:39those which connects
36:40people more
36:41as we see
36:43like Bengal ki beti
36:44the common man's leader
36:45and also
36:46what we have seen
36:47Modi is taking
36:48the same path
36:49going to
36:49Jhalmuri's shop
36:51and taking Jhalmuri
36:52and a boat ride
36:52or a boat ride
36:53right behind us
36:55Anupam quickly
36:56then we move to
36:57a final factor
36:58which I think
36:58is the biggest factor
36:59I wanted to say
36:59that he is eating
37:00Jhalmuri on his street
37:01and showing that
37:02I am a street fighter
37:03also like Mamata
37:03Banerji
37:04so this is the
37:05that was quite a hit
37:05actually
37:06that was a hit
37:07if phase 1
37:08the optics were Modi
37:10eating Jhalmuri
37:11phase 2 also
37:12was the Hooghli
37:13Hooghli boat ride
37:14okay let's get on
37:15to what we have all
37:16I think
37:17are on the same page
37:19on which is the
37:20biggest factor
37:20in this election
37:21and that is
37:22the woman factor
37:23you know
37:23woman has come
37:25to be a constituency
37:26that Mamata Banerji
37:27has nurtured
37:27over the last
37:2815 years
37:29or rather
37:29many would suggest
37:30even 5 years
37:31before that
37:31where she has spoken
37:32directly to the women
37:34of West Bengal
37:35will they still stick
37:36now if you look at
37:38post poll surveys
37:39Maria of 2021
37:40the percentage of women
37:42was I think
37:42close to 47%
37:43that voted for
37:44Mamata Banerji
37:45and it was about
37:4638% men
37:47so women
37:48had Mamata
37:50or Didi's back
37:51this time around
37:52how do you see
37:52things pan out
37:53are they still with her
37:54I am going to begin
37:55with the urban women
37:56and the rural women
37:57I will make that
37:57distinction clearly
37:58Preeti
37:59among urban women
38:00the issue of safety
38:02security is really
38:03palpable
38:03I was covering this
38:05constituency of
38:06Pani Hati
38:07from where
38:07Ratna Debnath
38:09who is the
38:09RG car victim's
38:11mother is contesting
38:12on a BJP ticket
38:13when you sense them
38:15people get really
38:16teary eyed
38:17when they greet
38:18Ratna Debnath
38:19they speak about it
38:20safety security
38:21is a very important
38:22issue in urban pockets
38:23multiple cities
38:24you travel to
38:26they will speak about it
38:27among the rural women
38:28it's also
38:29that sense
38:30of Mamata Banerji
38:32being a woman
38:32who is fighting
38:33and at the same time
38:35Mamata Banerji
38:35who has given them
38:361500 rupees
38:37but
38:38I've also
38:38I would say
38:39I have met
38:39women Preeti
38:40who have said
38:41that why give 1500 rupees
38:43instead give us
38:4415 days of job
38:45fair point
38:46now is that
38:46vote bank
38:47eroding
38:48that Mamata Banerji
38:49had
38:50because
38:50ultimately
38:51if you do the math
38:52if she has the woman vote
38:54some would think
38:55she's through again
38:55if she has the woman vote
38:57like she had in 2021
38:58Indra
38:59well Preeti
39:00I have a different
39:00take at this
39:01I still believe
39:02that the women vote
39:03sticks to Mamata Banerji
39:04one because
39:05of her social schemes
39:06aimed at women
39:07secondly
39:08her cult stature
39:09within the women
39:11community
39:11now
39:12if you have to
39:13dissociate
39:14that some of the
39:15anti-Trinamul congress
39:16votes
39:17which go to the BJP
39:18which once again
39:19will consolidate
39:20with the BJP
39:21in a highly polarized
39:22atmosphere
39:22it's gender
39:24it's not gender specific
39:25so it's men
39:26as well as women
39:27who are anti-TMC
39:29in those pockets
39:30who feel
39:31in West Bengal
39:32as I said
39:32in those villages
39:33which is
39:33which perhaps
39:35they have been
39:36you know
39:36they have had
39:37the bad experience
39:38from the ruling establishment
39:40you're saying net-net women
39:41are still sticking by
39:41Mamata Banerji
39:42net-net women
39:42are still sticking by
39:43but you know
39:44the general masses
39:45who will be voting
39:46for the BJP
39:47it comprises of
39:48men and women
39:49so the otherwise
39:51in general
39:51the women vote
39:52you know
39:53Mamata Banerji
39:53has been able to
39:54you know
39:55get her separately
39:56into her own
39:57that vote bank
39:58is still there
39:59that's what you say
40:00you know
40:00I have to say this
40:01and I'm going to bring you in
40:03Tapesh
40:03that
40:03and I think Maria
40:04will somewhere down the line
40:06echo the same fact
40:07when you go to rallies
40:08when you go to sabhas
40:09there is a sense of respect
40:11that Bengalis have for women
40:13and which is not there
40:14and I will say it
40:15I come from Haryana
40:16I come from the north
40:17but I don't see it
40:17I didn't see it in Bihar
40:18when you cover rallies
40:19in Uttar Pradesh
40:20in Haryana
40:21and I'm saying it
40:21I am from Haryana
40:22there is an inherent
40:24sense of respect
40:25which is ingrained
40:26in Bengalis
40:27where women are concerned
40:28I was actually covering
40:29Shaini Ghosh's rally
40:30and I won't say
40:31Maria that it was
40:32just Shaini Ghosh
40:33she could have been
40:34from the BJP
40:34she actually campaigns
40:36what you and I
40:36would typically
40:37see as a man
40:38very masculine energy
40:40she will taunt
40:41you know
40:41she will be aggressive
40:43in the north Indian belt
40:45she would be judged
40:46here
40:47she is applauded
40:48and that is I think
40:49Shakti being worshipped
40:50in West Bingo
40:52Preeti that you are talking about
40:53you know
40:53we are so used to
40:54covering rallies
40:55in several parts of India
40:56UP, Bihar
40:57women
40:58journalist or reporter
40:59on the ground
41:00will be seen
41:01with lot of interest
41:02and inquisitiveness
41:03I agree
41:04have you felt it?
41:06unnecessary gaze
41:07here
41:08you are part of the crowd
41:09they give you space
41:10that's right
41:10absolutely
41:11and that is
41:12alien to me though
41:13and that is liberating
41:14for a woman
41:14because we have never
41:15thought of another
41:16female folly
41:17as a female folly
41:19it's not normal
41:20in other states
41:22and one must say it
41:23I know
41:24I am going to get
41:24a lot of hate for it
41:25from all the other states
41:26Maria you are also
41:27bordering the same
41:28but you have to accept
41:29what there is
41:30Tapash
41:30is the woman
41:31sticking with
41:33Didi this time?
41:34well I think yes
41:36because as far as
41:37Mohata Banerjee is concerned
41:39women vote bank
41:40is a big big chunk
41:41of vote bank
41:41for Mohata Banerjee
41:42yes
41:43the social schemes
41:44have immensely benefited
41:45women of West Bengal
41:47but again
41:48there is an urban
41:49vote bank
41:50of female voters
41:51which have a lot
41:52of discontentment
41:53who talk about
41:54questions about
41:54employment
41:56education
41:56health
41:57but again
41:58this is unfortunately
41:59in Kolkata
42:00and other suburban
42:00areas in our state
42:02we see very less
42:03number of voting
42:04but these women
42:05who criticize
42:05barely goes out
42:06to vote
42:07I felt the same
42:08you feel the
42:09anti-incumbency
42:10even in women
42:10you see it
42:11different
42:12and that is
42:13even in the urban
42:14there is a class issue
42:15you go to the slums
42:16most women's face
42:18lights up the minute
42:18you say Didi
42:20but you go
42:20in the class divide
42:21you go to the
42:22upper class segment
42:24you will see
42:25the anti-incumbency
42:25for whom that 1500
42:26doesn't matter
42:26it's not an issue
42:28for them
42:28very quickly
42:28Anupam
42:29well I felt
42:30a bit different
42:30because one thing
42:32is clear
42:32this vote
42:33this election
42:34is extremely
42:35polarized election
42:36and in few pockets
42:37in some pockets
42:38where Hindu population
42:40is there
42:40a section of
42:42women voters
42:43are shifting
42:44towards BJP
42:45for this
42:46high polarized
42:48I agree
42:48same as Anupam
42:50and what I have seen
42:52I was in Nandikram
42:53and a few women
42:54were there
42:55those who are in
42:56Chopperdokan
42:57means that
42:58Pakura shop
42:59and where
42:59she said
43:00that Didi
43:02is helping us
43:02but
43:04we don't have
43:05the capability
43:05to read or write
43:07or be learned
43:07so that's why
43:08everyone is not learned
43:09so you're saying
43:10there is an erosion
43:11of the woman vote bank
43:12especially in the
43:13Hindu community
43:14so it's a
43:15I'm glad the
43:16different issues
43:16Preeti
43:17that 1500 rupees
43:19women have been
43:20getting it for so long
43:21they want more
43:22women are asking for more
43:23so yes
43:24okay so I think
43:24the Bengal bureau
43:25is divided
43:25to say that
43:27the woman vote
43:28is sticking
43:28to say that
43:29it's not sticking
43:30it's a democratic newsroom
43:32yeah yeah good one
43:32okay final comments
43:34who do you think
43:34is winning
43:35Tappash
43:35let me ask you
43:36off the bat
43:36Tappash is like
43:37why me
43:40well it's going to be
43:41a tough game
43:41for both the parties
43:42but either of the party
43:44BJP or Thredamul
43:44Congress
43:45either of them
43:45will win
43:46yes we know
43:47but it's not going
43:48to be a cakewalk
43:49there could be
43:50erosion
43:52in the Thredamul
43:53vote bank
43:53but I see
43:53but I don't believe
43:54who has the edge
43:55who has the edge
43:57TMC
43:57I would say
43:58he's sticking his neck out
43:59Tappash is saying
44:00TMC has the edge
44:01Indrajit Kundu
44:02West Bengal bureau chief
44:04you have a lot at stake
44:05and I had an answer ready
44:07I think whoever wins
44:08whichever political party wins
44:10I'll answer like a politician
44:12on the May 4th
44:13it is going to be
44:14the people of West Bengal
44:15who will win
44:1692%
44:17but you're not a politician
44:18I'm still going to ask you
44:19who has the edge
44:20I'm just putting up
44:21the act of a politician
44:22covering politicians
44:23like I said
44:24there's a lot of pressure
44:25on bureau chiefs
44:27but
44:27I'll still put my neck out
44:30you know
44:30it's an extremely
44:32fascinating election
44:33very difficult to predict
44:34as always Bengal
44:35and especially given that
44:36the SIR has happened
44:38there wasn't any dipstick
44:39for us
44:39to measure anything
44:40I believe
44:41that in Bengal
44:42if you see history
44:43if there is change
44:44that is coming
44:45there is a hint of it
44:47there is a political forewarning
44:49there is a political forewarning
44:492008, 2009
44:512024 elections
44:52the Trinamul congress
44:53being swept
44:54and now again
44:55we are seeing
44:55vocal anti-incumbency
44:56so we really can't predict
44:58but on ground
44:59given the kind of
45:00you know
45:01Sangatana
45:02and the strength
45:02that Trinamul has
45:03I would still give
45:04the Trinamul
45:05a slight edge
45:06over the BJP
45:06TMC
45:07okay
45:07so the
45:09just to say it again
45:10a West Bengal bureau chief
45:11Indrajit Kundu
45:12has also struck his neck out
45:13and he's saying
45:14TMC
45:14has a slight edge
45:17I will go with TMC
45:19because
45:19if I can
45:20if I
45:21if I
45:21see
45:22the North Bengal
45:23that is the edge
45:24for BJP
45:25and in South Bengal
45:26that is for TMC
45:28I'll tell about
45:29152 seats
45:30that BJP
45:31first phase
45:32yeah
45:3316 districts
45:34first phase
45:35out of
45:35294
45:37152 seats
45:38BJP
45:39I think
45:40because I have
45:40traveled to North Bengal
45:42most of the regions
45:43so I'm getting a feeling
45:45a sense
45:45that BJP
45:46has some edge
45:48over TMC
45:49in the first phase
45:50of elections
45:50but the second phase
45:52but they should have some edge
45:53this is where
45:53this is where the stronghold
45:54but the second phase
45:56142 seats
45:57the main challenge
45:59for BJP
45:59is for the second phase
46:01okay tell me Mariah
46:02what is the outsider's
46:03perspective in this
46:04so outsider's perspective
46:05would be
46:06I mean for me
46:07I sense
46:08a high percentage
46:08of also
46:09silent voters
46:10in certain pockets
46:11they are not revealing
46:13their choices
46:13but the sense
46:14of you know
46:15fear with the state
46:17government is gone
46:18or the local leadership
46:19which was largely there
46:21here is the party
46:23the BJP
46:23which has gone up
46:24from 3 in 2016
46:26to 77
46:26in 2021
46:28what will happen
46:29this time around
46:30I'm going to wait
46:30but
46:32whosoever wins
46:33it's going to be
46:34a decisive victory
46:35this is no election
46:37it's not going to be
46:38a close election
46:39whosoever is winning
46:40it's going to be
46:41either way
46:42Bengal has made up
46:43its mind
46:43and it's going to be
46:44going either way
46:45and it will be very clear
46:46it will not be
46:47this way or that way
46:48it will not be
46:49120
46:49140
46:50the other side
46:51what I feel is
46:52that the BJP
46:53needs to double
46:54what it had
46:54the last time around
46:55it stood at 77
46:56it's right now
46:57at 66
46:58if I'm not wrong
46:58correct
46:5964, 66
46:59is where they are
47:0065
47:01okay
47:01so they need to
47:02double where they are
47:03that would mean
47:04that this needs to be
47:05a wave election
47:05for the Bharatiya Janata
47:06party to do so
47:07I'm only looking at
47:08electoral math
47:09because
47:11traditional
47:12sophology
47:13in West Bengal
47:14would suggest
47:14that the minority
47:15vote will go with
47:16Mamata Banerji
47:17it's consolidated
47:18especially at the
47:19back of SI
47:19and the back of
47:20the bipolarity
47:21of this contest
47:22so if Mamata Banerji
47:23already has that
47:2427 to 30%
47:25you don't know
47:26how much she'll
47:26get out of that
47:27the last time around
47:28the BJP had about
47:2938%
47:30that if you do the math
47:31let's say they got
47:3240% of the vote
47:33now we can safely say
47:35that vote came out
47:35of the Hindu
47:36vote
47:3770% is Hindu
47:38that means they've
47:39already taken about
47:4055 to 57%
47:41of the Hindu vote
47:42on the left vote
47:43but is left in Congress
47:45even relevant
47:45I don't think it's relevant
47:46that's why we haven't
47:47spoken about that
47:48so they've already
47:48I feel they're at a stage
47:50where they already have
47:5055 to 57%
47:52of the Hindu vote
47:53they'll need to touch
47:54for a wave
47:55because you know
47:56I don't see them
47:57getting a big chunk
47:58of the minority vote
47:59the question is
47:59has it maxed out
48:00or is there
48:01the Hindu vote
48:02because they will then
48:03need to look at
48:03getting 70%
48:04of the Hindu vote
48:05can they do it
48:07Mamata Banerjee
48:08like I said earlier
48:09needs a majority
48:10of the minority vote
48:11minority of the majority vote
48:13now in the minority
48:13of the majority
48:14women will play a factor
48:15that's all I can say
48:16it is a tough election
48:17and then there is also
48:18SIR
48:18and for most
48:19sophologists
48:19there is SIR
48:20of course
48:21for most sophologists
48:23Bengal is a waterloo
48:25I agree it's a waterloo
48:26ask any one of them
48:27we take it with a fistful of salt
48:29thank you
48:30all of you
48:31for joining us
48:32we leave it at that
48:34Indrao do you want to end
48:34with
48:35something in Bengali
48:36which you can explain
48:38to Mariah and I
48:40you know
48:40I mean shabai ki ishu
48:42the acta hi katha
48:42bote chai
48:42I mean
48:43the 2 shok derke
48:44karon akhono potjom
48:45the acta phase baaki rohe chai
48:46there is still one phase
48:47to go
48:47so the only thing
48:48that I will say is
48:49apnana ashun
48:50baron
48:51baritike baron
48:52ebang
48:52beshi shankhai
48:53vote din
48:53acta record to
48:54prathom
48:55prathom
48:56phase
48:56hai hai hai
48:57dito phase
48:58aro boro
48:58record koro
48:59so what I said was
48:59first phase was a record
49:01second phase
49:02smashed the record
49:03in the first phase
49:03all right
49:04okay yeah
49:04let's hope
49:05that it is a record
49:07he's been speaking
49:08like a politician
49:09okay so this is the team
49:10we try to bring you
49:11an unbiased view
49:13of this election
49:14we've done our best
49:15to do that
49:16there's been a team
49:17behind as well
49:18let's all come together
49:19and we'll bring the crew
49:20who was with us
49:20so let's all of you
49:21just quickly come
49:22so we can end this show
49:24it's very hot
49:25like most of us
49:26know on ground
49:28just come there
49:29come come come
49:30quickly come in
49:30quickly come in
49:31so we've had our teams
49:32coming in
49:33now these are the people
49:34who are only coming
49:35from Delhi
49:36the West Bengal
49:37bureau has been
49:38working day and night
49:39to make sure
49:39you get the news
49:41from the state
49:42like I said
49:43unbiased
49:43unfiltered
49:44for you to decide
49:45where this election
49:46is going
49:46so that's all of us
49:47that's the camera team
49:48that's the producers
49:49that's us reporters
49:50thank you for watching
49:51say it in Bengali
49:53on a conic on a conic
49:54dhondabad
49:54on a conic
49:55dhondabad
49:56thank you
49:57as long as the
49:58but this may don't
49:58make sure
49:58they take
49:59and they
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