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As West Bengal gears up for Phase 2 elections tomorrow, panellists discuss the five Ms that will decide who will win the election in the state.
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00:00Okay, all eyes then, folks, on phase two of the West Bengal elections.
00:04Remember, this is the make-or-break phase for both Mamata Banerjee and the BJP.
00:11Total seats, 142 at stake in the areas in and around Kolkata and southern Bengal.
00:172021 Assembly polls, TMC was at 123, BJP 18, others 1.
00:23In the 2024 Lok Sabha, the TMC was ahead in 115 of the constituencies, BJP in 27.
00:31So this is the fortress of the TMC that the BJP is hoping to breach this time.
00:35And if they can do so, then who knows, Bengal could throw a major surprise.
00:41But the questions I will raise are what I am calling the 5Ms that will decide Bengal in 2026.
00:48And I'll tell you them in a moment.
00:50Joining me now are two people who track polling very closely, Rahul Verma, Centre for Policy Research,
00:56and Sandeep Shastri, election analyst and Vice President, NITI University.
01:01Appreciate both of you joining me on the show tonight.
01:04And I'm going to go one by one on the 5Ms that one believes will decide this critical phase that
01:10comes up tomorrow.
01:12The first one is Mamata Banerjee herself.
01:15Because at the end of the day, she is the critical factor as far as the Trinamul Congress is concerned.
01:21The election is fought around her.
01:22And I look at the numbers, 2019 Lok Sabha, TMC 22, BJP 18.
01:28BJP made a huge breakthrough in 2019 Lok Sabha.
01:31Assembly elections, TMC got 216, BJP 77.
01:36Lok Sabha, TMC 2024, TMC 29, BJP 12.
01:41So, the gap was narrowest in 2019.
01:45And that's the kind of election that the BJP will hope can turn it around for them in West Bengal.
01:51Am I right in saying that the first M factor, Sandeep Shastri, is Mamata Banerjee herself?
01:55This election is a referendum in a way on a leader who's been in power for 15 years and could
02:00be facing anti-incumbency.
02:04Rajdeep, I don't know your other four M's, so I can't say whether it's the first M.
02:08But then it's an important M.
02:10Beyond a doubt, it's an important M.
02:13The TMC's entire campaign revolves around the persona of Mamata Banerjee.
02:21The BJP seems to have altered its strategy a bit, this time in West Bengal, by focusing much more on
02:28the TMC, its government, 15 years of government, and incidentally, is talking of Mamata Banerjee.
02:36Because they realized that last time, an over-focus on Mamata Banerjee allowed her to make it a Bengal versus
02:44non-Bengal issue.
02:45So, no shadow of doubt that Mamata is critical for both the TMC and the type of hold that she
02:55has over the voters would be a critical factor in deciding and defining the direction of the result.
03:03Most critical M, I'm not sure I would wait for your other M's to come out.
03:08Okay, I'll come to each M one by one.
03:10But Rahul Verma, would I be right in saying, it's difficult for a chief minister to win four successive terms.
03:15Very few have done it.
03:1715 years on, there are those who say fatigue, if not anger, has set in with Mamata Banerjee.
03:22There are others, though, who say that she remains.
03:24And most polls show that's still the first choice when it comes to chief minister and popularity.
03:29Is it there for Mamata versus Mamata, as some have put it?
03:33Absolutely.
03:34Because, as you rightly pointed out, among the larger states, if Mamata wins fourth time, she would be basically equal
03:43to two other chief ministers, Jyoti Basu and Naveen Patnaya.
03:47No other chief minister who controlled a large state, basically won four consecutive term.
03:52Second point, I think Sandeepji was absolutely right.
03:55There is a murmur or even a silent murmur of small change or ektu parivartan, what I have been hearing.
04:03But it's Mamata which stands between BJP's ambition to dislodge TMC.
04:10Mamata continues to remain very popular.
04:12And I think she is, like, if they come back, it would be Mamata who absorbs the local level anti
04:19-incumbency that has developed against her government,
04:22as well as her party cadres.
04:25So, in some ways, whatever anger is, without Mamata, TMC cannot win this election.
04:33Interesting.
04:34Okay, let's turn to my second M.
04:36Mamata is the first M, Mamata Banerjee.
04:38The second M is Narendra Modi, Prime Minister Modi.
04:41Now, one of the things that the Prime Minister has achieved, 11 years after coming to power, 12 years after
04:47coming to power,
04:47he's taken the BJP to form governments in states where they were often, at best, a secondary player.
04:54In fact, in Bengal, they were not even a second player when he took over.
04:57The left was in power.
04:58But look at the numbers.
04:59Formed a government in Maharashtra and Haryana for the first time, in Assam, in Manipur, in Tripura, in Odisha and
05:06Bihar.
05:07So, under Prime Minister Modi, there is little doubt that the BJP has had a remarkable expansion over these 12
05:14years.
05:15Is Narendra Modi, Sandeep Shastri, as much a factor in Bengal as he is in other states, particularly in a
05:23state election?
05:23I gave the difference between 2019 Lok Sabha, where the BJP was very close to Mamata Banerjee and 2021 Vidhan
05:32Sabha, where the gap widened between the two.
05:35Is Mr. Modi and the manner in which he has aggressively campaigned in Bengal a sign that is this election
05:41Mamata versus Modi or is that an oversimplification?
05:46Rajdeep, in states where the Bharatiya Janta party has been growing in the last decade plus, there is no doubt
05:56that the Modi factor is a major factor in the growth of the BJP in those states.
06:02If you look at those states, the popularity of the chief minister, of the prime minister is much more than
06:10the popularity of the party.
06:12So, yes, in West Bengal, the Modi factor is critical.
06:17However, I'll add one caveat, Rajdeep, there.
06:20That the Modi factor becomes critical for the BJP in states where it is growing.
06:26The challenge is when the opposition has a local face which is very powerful, which is very credible, and the
06:37BJP does not have a local face.
06:39There, there becomes a challenge.
06:42If there is a local face, then the Modi factor becomes a much more powerful factor to back that local
06:49face.
06:50But in West Bengal, I think the equations are a little different, and that's why the West Bengal election is
06:57different.
06:57The only exception I would take for this is Odisha, where even though there was no local face for the
07:04BJP, they were able to challenge Naveen Patnaik.
07:12But I would also say that that was because there was a simultaneous Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha poll.
07:16When you have had an exclusive Vidhan Sabha poll, where BJP is trying to build its image, the prime minister's
07:26role is critical.
07:27But when there is an opposition leader at the local level who has a mass following, there is a challenge
07:34which the BJP faces.
07:36Let's turn to you on that, Rahul Verma.
07:38It's very interesting because Odisha is a good example, neighbouring to Bengal.
07:43Naveen Patnaik was also in power for more than two decades.
07:46Mamata Banerjee in power for 15 years.
07:48Eventually, the BJP, which was a third player also in Odisha, till two decades ago, has actually become party number
07:55one.
07:55In Bengal, they've displaced the left five years ago and are now established as the challenger.
08:02Do you believe, therefore, that Prime Minister Modi in Bengal also allows the BJP to punch above its weight?
08:09Or does this also become about do you have a credible Bengali face?
08:16So, I don't want to say that state leadership doesn't matter.
08:21But it seems in last few years, the way elections are being conducted and especially the way BJP has been
08:29changing its chief minister
08:31and still being able to win election, it seems that actually local face doesn't have, like, it's not the final
08:39trump card.
08:40So, I would add to, like, not just Odisha, think of Haryana.
08:45Congress had a much sort of, like, stronger face in Huda.
08:49I don't think BJP had a strong face.
08:51They won the election.
08:52Nayab Singh Sani, they had just changed.
08:54And they still came back to power, right?
08:57So, except a couple of states, UP and Maharashtra, I think in every other state, the state-level leadership of
09:06BJP is, in fact, weaker to the opposition face.
09:10Think of a state like even in Assam.
09:15When BJP rose in Assam, no one knew Sarvanand Sonawal in that way, like, he's an important leader.
09:22Or Himanta had just joined, right?
09:24So, I think state-level leadership, while it is important, given the way BJP campaigns around Prime Minister Modi, sort
09:35of like, but this is not to say it only depends on face.
09:38I think they have organization, cadre.
09:41They use all kinds of resources that is available to them.
09:46So, all instruments get mobilized, and everything flows from this personality of Prime Minister Modi.
09:52And you would see a dramatic change that has happened in BJP's campaign in Bengal.
09:58Last time, Prime Minister Modi attacked Mahanta from the front.
10:03This time, you haven't seen that kind of attack, right?
10:06And to my mind, BJP has run a much better campaign compared to 2026, 2021.
10:13Of course, this is still Mahanta's election to win or lose.
10:17But there is some competitive energy that has been pulled in.
10:22And last point, a small point, which is that, think of it, Bengal.
10:26In some ways, not only BJP grew at the popularity of Prime Minister Modi, but it has now stabilized.
10:33It is now 37-38% vote.
10:36And so, it just needs, like, a small momentum to reach to 42-43% mark.
10:43Okay, let's therefore come to, how do you reach to 42-43%?
10:46And these are the three other M's I want to discuss.
10:49Third is Mahila vote.
10:51Many have believed that the Mahila of West Bengal is decisive.
10:552019 assembly, rather, 2019 Lok Sabha.
10:59TMC got 47% of the vote.
11:02BJP, 38%.
11:03This is as per post-poll findings.
11:062021 assembly, the gap was 13%.
11:08TMC, 50%, 37%.
11:11This is the Lokriti CSTS post-poll survey done by none other than our guest today, Sandeep Shastri.
11:21Sandeep, Mahila vote.
11:22Does that become critical now?
11:25Because if Mamta Banerjee cannot retain that Mahila vote and the vast gap that there is,
11:30then she becomes even more vulnerable.
11:34That's a critical point, Rajdeep.
11:37Mahila vote has, in the past, in assembly elections, been with Mamta.
11:41This time, there are two factors which will have to be budgeted in that.
11:47Firstly, the deteriorating law and order situation in West Bengal, as perceived by a lot of people,
11:56and the fact that women have seen this deteriorating law and order situation as a huge challenge,
12:04and does that result in a sentiment against the chief minister is a factor that would need to be budgeted
12:13into any analysis.
12:14And secondly, the BJP has tried its best to use the defeat of the recent legislation by saying that this
12:25was a vote by the non-BJP parties,
12:28the non-NDA parties, an anti-woman vote.
12:31Now, I think, how much do these two factors play a role, I think, would need to be seen.
12:37But I also would add, in conclusion on this point, that given the type of polarization that you see in
12:45West Bengal,
12:46the sharp polarization that you see in West Bengal,
12:50I sometimes wonder whether people begin by taking a position,
12:55women begin by taking a position on various factors,
12:59whether we are supporting this side or that side,
13:02and then justify the various arguments they would like to make,
13:06keeping in mind who they have decided to support.
13:10You know, put more simply, Rahul Verma, in a way,
13:14is there a gender vote at all?
13:16Do you believe gender can trump in Bengal caste, religion?
13:20Is gender, therefore, far more critical in a state like West Bengal?
13:23We've seen it in other states as well.
13:25Maharashtra, Ladki Bahin worked for the BJP, Ladli Behna in Madhya Pradesh.
13:31Lokhir Bhandar, is that still 1,500 rupees to women still going to be the key factor in a way?
13:39So, BJP's road to power, if there is any in Bengal,
13:43then they have to break Mamta's stranglehold on,
13:47not stranglehold, but Mamta's ability to woo a large number of women voters.
13:51As the statistics you gave, like, 13% advantage among women voters,
13:56unless that basically comes down, BJP doesn't have a chance.
14:00Now, some people pointed out...
14:02BJP is promising 3,000 rupees.
14:03BJP is promising 3,000 rupees to women.
14:06So, I think, see, like, welfare matters,
14:10and there is a cycle to which this kind of welfare or freebies or cash transfers...
14:16So, they have already got this between 2016 and 2021,
14:20and they have rewarded for it.
14:22Now, this is a question for women.
14:24Is questions of security and safety trump over the welfare architecture?
14:30Or now they are going to demand more that,
14:32hey, we have been already getting this, but what about this?
14:35And I've seen some sort of, like, interviews on Mariah's show yesterday,
14:40and some other things, where I think a woman said,
14:42we are getting 1,500, but I just don't want this.
14:46Why are there no jobs?
14:47Why are there no factories?
14:49We will be able to earn more.
14:51So, I think what I'm trying to say, at one election cycle,
14:55this sort of, like, you know, cash transfers work,
14:58because people think, okay, great, at least we are getting this.
15:01But once you go get this for a couple of years,
15:04then you start thinking, is it all that we deserve?
15:07Shouldn't we ask for more?
15:09And shouldn't we deserve more?
15:10And so, I think that is the crack through which,
15:14if BJP can sort of, like, convince a section of voters,
15:18then they are in the play.
15:19Otherwise, no.
15:21Okay.
15:22Critical factor there for Mahila.
15:23Two more factors.
15:24The last two M's.
15:26One is the Muslim factor.
15:28Now, this is the one factor, along with Mahila's,
15:30that has been the rock on which the TMC won three consecutive elections.
15:342011, they won in percentage terms.
15:3835%, this is, of course, Muslim vote.
15:41If you look at, they've steadily increased in percentage terms in West Bengal.
15:45You can see that that is proving to be a critical factor based on CSDS.
15:50The percentage is there in Bengal.
15:53Among migrant workers, 36 lakh migrant workers from Bengal,
15:57according to a state government estimate.
15:5950 lakh migrant workers from Bengal, unofficial estimate.
16:02And over 30 lakh migrants have returned to vote,
16:06according to some estimates.
16:07And migrants, of course, will then come into the entire SIR.
16:11Have they actually got their names on the voter list or not?
16:16Reverse migration has boosted turnout among male voters in particular.
16:21Which brings me to that fifth X factor and the final one,
16:24fourth and fifth together.
16:25The SIR exercise, does it become a boon or a bane?
16:31Does Mamta benefit from it or does the BJP benefit,
16:35according to you, Sandeep Shastri,
16:36given that overall 91 voters are struck off the list,
16:4027 lakh voters in adjudication?
16:45Rajdeep, the Muslim factor, the minority factor is crucial.
16:50It's important and has been important in West Bengal for long.
16:55And I think for that reason, you see a BJP strategy this time
16:59of a very, very strong, a very, very visible,
17:03a very, very direct majority consolidation attempt.
17:07This is seen in the campaign that local BJP leaders have led.
17:11So while you may speak of a minority consolidation,
17:16you are also seeing a majority consolidation happening.
17:19And whenever this happens, the majority consolidation
17:23many a time works to the advantage of the party it is in favor of.
17:29Also, when you talk of the minority vote,
17:32let's also remember that the SIR exercise did lead to a lot of deletions.
17:38And the fear is that the fear among the supporters of the TMC is
17:44that it may actually cause a challenge for them.
17:48But Rajdeep, as you said, these were the last two M's.
17:52I would like to emphasize two, which I would want you to please also add.
17:57One is the Matadar, who I think is the ultimate winner,
18:00and the Maha Dhruvi Karan that you see in West Bengal all this time.
18:05For me, these are two very critical M's
18:08in deciding and defining what will happen tomorrow
18:11and what happened in the first round.
18:14You want to go into that, Rahul Verma?
18:16Do you believe SIR and its impact it's had on migrants,
18:19many of whom feared that they were off voting lists?
18:21The other side is in a number of marginal seats.
18:26Marginal seats are about 70, where the percentage were less than 5%.
18:30The number of people deleted from the lists are substantial,
18:34and the BJP could get advantage.
18:36SIR, boon or bain, and for whom?
18:38So, two points.
18:40First, on the Muslim, I think this is not the right path for the TMC.
18:47And I'm not basically blaming them, but once you reach certain critical number
18:52in terms of, like, a Muslim vote, 70-75,
18:58I think this is going to produce greater sort of, like,
19:01majority consolidation, as Sandeepji is pointing out,
19:04which is what will lead to more Maha Dhruvi Karan or polarization.
19:09So, while everyone is celebrating this 92% turnout,
19:13I'm actually worried.
19:14The reason I'm worried, because this is a sign of completely politicized society.
19:21A sign in which you cannot basically wait, like,
19:25even wait for someone else to win, right?
19:28If your side doesn't win, you think you are toast.
19:31And so, like, you know, some level of participation is great,
19:34and one should celebrate.
19:36But once a society is fully mobilized and fully politicized,
19:40the negative repercussions of those things are going to be greater.
19:45And this is large.
19:46So, SIR is one way looking at basically boosting the participation.
19:52But in some ways, SIR is also creating, inducing fear among those.
19:57So, you are seeing a large number of people returning
20:00because they think if they don't vote,
20:03they might not be on the electoral roll next time, right?
20:05And so, this is not a great sign.
20:09Okay.
20:09Either way, when I look at all these 5Ms,
20:12and we can keep adding more,
20:14it then portends to be a contest which could go either way.
20:19That seems to be the general belief.
20:21The BJP will hope to benefit from the polarization.
20:26On the other hand,
20:28Mamata Banerjee will do what Prashant Kishore would want to do,
20:31what Prashant Kishore told me,
20:32win a majority of the minority,
20:34in which case she then needs to win a minority of the majority.
20:38Whether that actually works as simply as that in 2026,
20:42both sides will hope that this phase,
20:44which goes to polls tomorrow,
20:46will decide the future.
20:47The BJP, can it break the citadel of Mamata Banerjee,
20:50or can Mamata Banerjee hold her own in southern Bengal,
20:54could well decide who wins the battle for Bengal.
20:57Rahul Verma and Sandeep Shastri,
20:59appreciate you joining me here on the news today.
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