00:00and here's matt miller espn draft guru joining us now here on the fan and a good afternoon sir
00:05how the heck are you doing great guys appreciate you having me well thanks for joining us obviously
00:10very exciting with the draft uh eight days away now how realistic is the cowboys uh browns trade
00:16rumor do you think that's going to happen man everyone's hearing it it seems like i think i
00:21saw three mock drafts came out today that all had that trade so i think where there's smoke there's
00:26usually fire it was about this time last year we started to hear about the browns maybe trading
00:31out of that number two pick and maybe the jaguars trying to come up and that ultimately did happen
00:35and so i think you have to at least run through the scenarios of okay we've been talking about what
00:40these teams should do what dallas should do at 12 and 20 we've been talking about that for months
00:44but you know so now you shake it up and you run through that experiment of okay well what if
00:48what if they move to six what does that now look like for both dallas and cleveland matt what do
00:53you make it all these teams ahead of dallas wanting to get out of that spot it seems like
00:58everybody you know albert breer was talking about that it seemed like there were five six teams that
01:04were willing to move out of that uh out of the top 10 yeah i think it speaks to the
01:09talent at the top
01:10of this year's class you know i mean and it's not to be disparaging about any player in this class
01:14or
01:14to you know dash anyone's hopes and dreams but the top of this class doesn't compare with the top of
01:20last year's class certainly doesn't compare at the top of 2024 and so i think you do have a lot
01:24of teams that are sitting there looking at the grades on their board and saying gosh carnell tate
01:29okay if we're at five overall where would he have ranked with last year's wide receiver class where
01:33would he have ranked with the year before that and so i think the reason we're seeing teams be at
01:37least willing to trade out a little bit is that right there is is teams looking at it saying yeah
01:42where would we have placed this player historically and saying maybe we could move down a little bit i think
01:47also the money positions in this draft you know offensive tackle wide receiver edge rusher
01:53there's pretty good depth so i think a lot of these teams look at it in a mindset of hey
01:58we could
01:58probably move back a little bit and still get a really good player the issue is maybe um you know
02:04other than dallas i don't know if there's a team that has a heavy incentive to move up so do
02:08you feel
02:08like though that these teams will sell their picks cheap or are you going to have to pay premium to
02:16get
02:17but here's what's interesting no one wants to give up 20 27 draft picks and so if you're the cowboys
02:22and you call and you're trying to move up and cleveland says all right we want you know we want
02:2612 and next year's first hang up there's no way like you're not trading next year's first because
02:31it's such a talent rich draft and i think we've even seen you know some teams like the jets uh
02:37try to go
02:38ahead and load up on next year's first round picks because of how good it's supposed to be so i
02:43don't know
02:44that you're playing premium this year usually you're paying premium for quarterbacks right that's
02:47the only reason you're expected to pay a little bit above asking price i don't think that'll be
02:52the case this year matt as you're projecting ahead and looking at that 27 class did the cowboys maybe
02:57make a mistake in having the two ones this year versus maybe giving up this year's one to the jets
03:04to keep both ones for next year yeah you'd like to have two ones next year as opposed to this
03:09year but
03:09i think you have to put every team in a vacuum and evaluate the cowboys genuinely feel like they're
03:15a super bowl contender they feel like they have a super bowl offense and so i think you look at
03:19the
03:19logic there and saying okay you want to strike while the iron's hot if we can add a couple impact
03:23defenders this year maybe we can make that run in 26 you know while you still have this offense
03:28that's put together while guys are still playing at a super high rate you know you've got
03:33coover baby on a rookie deal tyler booker on a rookie deal terrence steel's making a million dollars a
03:37year uh so you've got tyler guyton's on a rookie deal it's like right now that offensive line's so
03:42cheap you're able to pay two receivers a ton of money right you're able to pay dac a ton of
03:46money
03:46and then i think now you're looking at it as okay can we get those young impact guys on defense
03:51where
03:51we can match what what our offense has basically so you put out a tweet that you uh did a
03:56quick round
03:56one mock on the what you're hearing mock now i can't spoil it for the entirety of the 32 teams
04:02but
04:02can you spoil it a little bit for what you did for our cowboys you know that honestly it was
04:07hard so i
04:07went and i did this with the idea that dallas does trade up right so like if everyone's hearing
04:12it let's run with it let's see what happens so i i mocked this out with dallas moving up to
04:16six to
04:17get sunny styles uh interestingly enough you know i think that's there's enough smoke there right to
04:22where that would be the move but if you have to give up 12 and 20 to do it you're
04:27probably getting
04:28back 39 i think maybe that's that's not even really equal for cleveland they'd probably want a
04:34little bit more than that but then at 39 i think if you're dallas you are looking for an edge
04:38rusher
04:38you know you're you're hoping that someone like a tj parker is there or cassius howell from a and m
04:43is
04:43there you know as this team moves to a more of a three four defense you're going to need some
04:47speed
04:47on the edge howell would be pretty interesting to me malachi lawrence from central florida would be
04:52pretty interesting to me but um you know you're moving from 20 to 39 to try to find that edge
04:57rusher
04:57instead of sitting at at six or excuse me at 12 and 20 uh it's matt miller here with you
05:02espn draft
05:03guber what are you hearing about cj allen uh and you know he ran a 40 a decent time uh
05:09high four fours
05:10i i think is there any concern about his knee is it all all performance or is there like a
05:15medical
05:15flag going in into the draft on him i haven't heard a medical flag on him and you know as
05:22you guys know
05:22because dallas does this better than anyone i think every team's going to have their own
05:27evaluation medically right they're going to look at things differently and say hey you know this
05:30guy's off our board in fact you know the year that dallas took jalen smith they i think they're the
05:34only team in the nfl that had them had him on their board so every team does things a little
05:38bit
05:38differently um i haven't heard any any teams that have that medical flag on him and i think him being
05:44able to get out and run is a pretty good sign at times it sounds like high four fours maybe
05:49some four
05:49five oh that's a really good time for him hopefully it's not too late in the process for teams to
05:54you know kind of evaluate that and see where it plays with him but i would i would expect him
05:58to
05:58be a round two pick that's kind of it seems like styles will be the only true linebacker in round
06:03one and then alan and anthony hill you know josiah trotter kyle lewis jacob rodriguez those guys will
06:09be all round two players what are you thinking about the the teams that are talking about all the
06:14positional value stuff in this draft is you do you have to kind of throw that out the window
06:19when you're talking about downs and players like that when where there's not the talent at the top
06:24of the board i think you have to throw it out a little bit and you i kind of sum
06:29it up this way
06:30if you're going to take a non-premium position that has to be a premium player you know so if
06:34you're
06:34going to take a safety an off-ball linebacker a running back you got to make sure that they have
06:39all probability and i think for the three guys we're talking about this year they are premium
06:43players you know i i think jeremiah love is one of the best running back prospects the last
06:4710 years uh caleb downs is certainly one of the smartest most instinctive most versatile safeties
06:52in a long time and then sonny styles who has just incredible you know height weight speed
06:58and incredible production you know this isn't like when isaiah simmons was coming out of clemson
07:03you're like oh man this guy's a great athlete what are we going to do with him styles led the
07:06team
07:06in tackles in 2025 in 2024 he had six sacks while playing linebacker so you know his ability is very
07:13very well documented so i think it goes to that if you're going to look at the money positions left
07:19tackle defensive end wide receiver and say gosh we don't love the left tackles in this class maybe
07:25we do go with a non-premium position you got to make sure that's a blue chip player are you
07:30looking
07:31at oh sorry go ahead we'll check ruben bain jr uh seems to be a pretty polarizing player matt what
07:36is he a
07:37guy that you could see really taking a big fall if this arm length thing is a big deal to
07:40teams
07:41yeah you know and i i jumped on this in january it was like gosh i loved the college football
07:47tape
07:47but the more you talk to teams they were like i had one general manager tell me we will let
07:51someone
07:52else be smarter than us meaning you have 30 years of data that says the sub 31 inch arms doesn't
07:58work
07:58in the nfl a player in the last 30 years with sub 31 inch arms has not had a 10
08:03plus sacks season
08:04right and bain is going to break the record he'll have the shortest arms for a pass rusher drafted in
08:08the first round and since 1999 at least so he's already going to break that record so are you
08:13going to bet that he's going to break you know 30 years of data that says not to draft these
08:18or that
08:19these guys drafted around one aren't going to have that production or drafted simple anywhere aren't
08:23going to have production with sub 31 inch arms so i love ruben bain's tape i mean i think you
08:27can
08:28make the argument he was the best player in college football down the stretch last year uh but i think
08:32you would be arrogant to ignore data right that's why we have it and it's your job is to try
08:38to marry
08:38film with analytics and i think you look at the film and say are there times the short arms pop
08:43up yep
08:43it does it shows up at times thankfully you know he has great leverage he has great strength he has
08:49you know a good lower body base and able to drive guys and he can lock out on the edge
08:54but
08:54if you're if you're drafting him expecting a 12 stack guy that's just not who he is that's not
08:58the data says he's not going to be that in the nfl it's matt miller espn with you here
09:03on the fan how do you look at this running back class after javante williams the cowboys don't have
09:10a lot of proven uh production in in that running back room if they wanted to do something in the
09:15fourth or fifth round who would be the players that you'd like there yeah this running back class
09:20is weak uh at the top i mean love is going to go very early his teammate jaderia price is
09:25going to go
09:25fairly early maybe even i know kuyper had him going 32 overall today to seattle i think mike
09:30washington jr from arkansas is probably the next guy off the board and likely goes somewhere in that
09:34late two early three range around three guys this is where the drop-off happens you know maybe jonah
09:41coleman from washington and that johnson from nebraska who didn't have a great 40 time but he's still
09:46elusive nick singleton from penn state but but these are role players right these aren't these aren't
09:52lead characters these are bit part guys and so if you wanted to piece together a backfield i think
09:56you could add one of those guys i would throw katron allen from penn state in there so you could
10:00add
10:00one of those guys to be a role player but i don't think the expectation is that any of them
10:05have the
10:05total package to become a number one back well thank you matt uh terrific work uh as always enjoy
10:11the draft and we'll look forward to chatting with you next time appreciate you guys thanks so much
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