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The latest broadcast covers the high-stakes summit between the United States and China, where the Chinese leadership established strict boundaries regarding Taiwan, security, and economic rise.
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00:22Hello and welcome. You're watching StageCraft with me, Geeta Mohan.
00:25Now, two summits, two power plays and one question shaping global politics tonight.
00:30Who really controls the game?
00:32As President Trump arrives in China, Xi Jinping lays down hard red lines on Taiwan, security and China's rise,
00:39with Taiwan sitting right at the top.
00:42No soft diplomacy, just a blunt warning.
00:45Mishandle this and conflict follows.
00:47And with Washington sounding quieter than usual on Taiwan,
00:51fears are growing that the island could become part of a much bigger bargain.
00:56Meanwhile, in New Delhi, India is hosting both BRICS and the Quad,
01:00two rival strategic camps pulling in opposite directions.
01:03One story is about pressure, the other about balance.
01:07All that and more, but first up, the headlines.
01:11As India hosts the BRICS foreign minister's meeting,
01:14reports have emerged of a spat between Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi and the UAE representative.
01:20Araqchi accused the UAE of directly being involved in military operations against Iran.
01:25It comes a day after the UAE denied a statement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
01:30that he visited the Gulf country during the Iran war.
01:35As Trump and Xi meet in Beijing, a White House official said both leaders agreed
01:38that the Strait of Hormuz should remain open.
01:41President Xi called the U.S.-China relationship as the world's most consequential,
01:45adding, and I quote,
01:47We must make it work and never mess it up.
01:49The Chinese president also stated that Taiwan is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations
01:54and it could create a very dangerous situation if mishandled.
01:59Protests broke out across the Cuban capital of Havana
02:02as the city confronted its worst rolling blackouts in decades
02:07amid a U.S. blockade that has starved the island of fuel.
02:10Crowds of hundreds of angry Cubans poured into the streets in several outlying neighborhoods,
02:15blocking roads with burning piles of rubbish, banging pots and shouting slogans.
02:22Britain's Health Secretary West treating resigned,
02:24saying he has lost confidence in Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership
02:28and it would be dishonorable and unprincipled to remain in his government.
02:33Streeting was a major challenger to Starmer's leadership.
02:37U.S. has always led when it comes to sanctioning leaders of nations,
02:41entities and business ventures showing no signs of leniency.
02:44But they might like to take a lesson or two from the Chinese.
02:48Amid the high-profile visit of U.S. President Donald Trump to China,
02:51along with the delegation comprising his most trusted deputies
02:55and top U.S. business honchos,
02:57there is one man in the Trump team who has caught the attention with his presence.
03:02Yes, it's no other than U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
03:06Rubio has been under Chinese sanctions since the year 2019,
03:10up to his nomination to join Trump's administration.
03:13This is Rubio's first trip to China after Beijing made some diplomatic efforts
03:18and changed the transliteration of Rubio's name.
03:22The Chinese officials transliterated the first syllable of his surname
03:26with a different Chinese character for Lu.
03:28The name, therefore, was changed to Marco Lu,
03:32enabling Marco Rubio's entry into China since he is under sanctions
03:36and without lifting the sanctions, he has now entered China.
03:41But this change did not happen overnight.
03:43Shortly before Rubio took over as the Secretary of State in January 2025,
03:47the Chinese government and official media began transliterating Rubio's surname
03:52with a different Chinese character.
03:54Earlier, the Chinese ministry indicated that it was willing to relax the sanctions against Rubio
03:59if he were to travel with Trump for a summit in Beijing.
04:02Rubio was sanctioned twice in 2020 for speaking out against Beijing's crackdown in Hong Kong.
04:08He was also very critical of China's alleged abuse of the Muslim Uyghur minority in Xinjiang.
04:13As a senator, Rubio was also one of the proponents of the Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act of 2021,
04:20a congressional bill that required companies to prove that goods imported from China's Xinjiang region
04:27were not produced with forced labour.
04:30President Trump's visit to China might mean bad news for Taiwan
04:34because before Trump even properly settled into Beijing,
04:37Xi Jinping pulled out four hard red lines that crossed them and the floor collapses.
04:44Touch Taiwan, touch human rights, touch China's political system,
04:48touch China's rise and things go south fast.
04:52And make no mistake, Taiwan sat at the top of that list like the final boss in a video game.
04:58She did not whisper it.
05:00She put it front and centre, warned of conflict and handed Trump a touch this
05:05and we might have some problems memo.
05:08Meanwhile, Washington has gone noticeably softer on Taiwan since Trump returned to power.
05:14And Taiwan's own opposition party just took a cosy little trip to Beijing.
05:18So is Taiwan about to get sold out over a state banquet?
05:22Let's start with why China treats Taiwan like a hill it will die on.
05:26Three reasons, history, strategy and money.
05:31History first, in 1949, China's civil war ended with the communists on the mainland
05:37and the nationalists in Taiwan.
05:39Beijing never accepted that as a permanent split.
05:42For over 70 years, it called Taiwan a rogue province that must come home,
05:48by persuasion or by force.
05:50Strategy second, Taiwan sits on the first island chain,
05:54a string of islands that acts like a wall between China and the open Pacific.
05:59Control Taiwan and China punches through that wall.
06:03Loose Taiwan and China stays boxed in.
06:06This is not sentiment.
06:08It is geography with enormous military consequences.
06:12Money third, Taiwan makes the world's most advanced semiconductors.
06:17Whoever controls Taiwan controls a chokehold on the global economy.
06:21So when Beijing calls Taiwan its core interest, that is not a slogan.
06:26That is a threat wrapped in diplomatic language.
06:29What exactly did Xi say to Trump about Taiwan?
06:32He did not want to waste pleasantries.
06:34He called it most important issue and the biggest common denominator in US-China relations.
06:41Then he said, and this part deserves a slow read.
06:44If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict
06:49and push the entire relationship into a very dangerous place.
06:54That is diplomatic speak for back off or we fight.
06:58In his talks with US President Donald Trump,
07:02President Xi Jinping pointed out that the Taiwan question
07:04is the most important issue in China-US relations.
07:07If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability.
07:12Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts,
07:16putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.
07:20Taiwan independence and cross-straight peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water.
07:25Maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait
07:28represents the greatest common ground between China and the US.
07:32The US side must handle the Taiwan issue with the utmost prudence.
07:37Trump's response?
07:39There was none.
07:40When reporters asked how the Taiwan conversation went,
07:43Trump said nothing and walked away.
07:46Not exactly reassuring for 23 million people on an island.
07:50Why is China this adamant?
07:52Because for Xi, Taiwan is not just territory, it is legitimacy.
07:57The Communist Party built its entire founding myth on reunifying China
08:02after a century of foreign humiliation.
08:04If Taiwan stays out, that story has a gaping hole.
08:08Xi even invoked the Thucydides trap,
08:12the ancient Greek theory about what happens
08:14when a rising power challenges a ruling one.
08:18Spoiler, it rarely ends with a handshake.
08:21Taiwan also sits at China's doorstep militarily.
08:25US bases in Japan and the Philippines
08:27already form a strategic chain around China's coastline.
08:31Taiwan in that chain is a wall.
08:34Without Taiwan, China stays contained.
08:37With it, China breaks into the Pacific.
08:40Beijing understands this completely.
08:42Every military drill, every warning, every red line,
08:45all of it makes perfect strategic sense when you see the map.
08:50Now, is Trump washing his hands of Taiwan?
08:52Here's where it gets uncomfortable.
08:55Trump said he would discuss arms sales to Taiwan directly with Xi.
08:59sales that US law explicitly says Washington should not consult Beijing about.
09:05That alone set off alarms.
09:07A bipartisan group of eight senators fired off a letter to the White House before the summit.
09:13American support for Taiwan is not up for negotiation.
09:17Congress even codified that into law.
09:19But Trump is a transactional president at a very transactional table.
09:25Xi offered trade deals, tariff truces, and access to rare earths that cripple American industry.
09:31The fear among analysts is simple.
09:34Taiwan becomes the chip Trump trades away for something shinier.
09:38The State Department already quietly removed the line,
09:41we do not support Taiwan independence, from its official fact sheet earlier this year.
09:47Officials called it a routine update.
09:50Critics called it a signal.
09:52Both cannot be right.
09:53So does this visit spell bad news for Taiwan?
09:56Add the final piece.
09:58Taiwan's own opposition party, which favors closer ties with Beijing,
10:02sent its leader to meet Xi just before this summit.
10:06Beijing used that visit to push its preferred framing.
10:10Now Xi has Trump in the room, a softer Washington posture, a divided Taiwan,
10:15and four red lines that nobody on the American side has publicly rejected.
10:21Taiwan's government called China the sole source of instability in the region.
10:25But statements do not stop transactions.
10:28Full betrayal? Not yet.
10:30But the silence is loud.
10:32The softening is real.
10:34And when a transactional president sits across from a patient, strategic one,
10:39the smaller player caught between them rarely wins the negotiation.
10:43Taiwan did not get a seat at this table.
10:46It got put on the menu.
10:49At a time when wars are disrupting energy markets and global trade routes are under pressure,
10:54Prime Minister Narendra Modi is embarking on a crucial diplomatic tour across the UAE and Europe.
10:59From oil security to AI and defence ties,
11:02what does India hope to gain from this high-stakes visit?
11:06Here's a report by Jyoti Shukla.
11:19Five countries, six days, one mission.
11:24India wants a bigger seat at the global table.
11:27At a time when wars are shaking energy markets,
11:30supply chains are under pressure,
11:32and the world economy is being redrawn,
11:35Prime Minister Narendra Modi is heading on a major diplomatic tour across the UAE and Europe.
11:43From oil security in West Asia to AI and semiconductors in Europe,
11:47this is not just another foreign visit.
11:50It is India trying to secure its economic future in real time.
11:53From May 15 to 20, Prime Minister Modi is visiting the UAE,
11:59the Netherlands,
12:00Sweden,
12:02Norway,
12:02and Italy.
12:04And every single stop on this tour has a very specific purpose.
12:08Let's break it down.
12:10First stop, Abu Dhabi.
12:12The UAE supplies nearly 40% of India's LPG needs.
12:16It's also India's third largest trade partner.
12:18With tensions rising in West Asia and the state of Hormuz under threat,
12:22India needs to secure its energy lines fast.
12:26PM Modi will sit down with UAE's President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nayan.
12:31On the table,
12:32long-term oil deals,
12:34LPG agreements,
12:35and even alternative supply routes that bypass the state of Hormuz,
12:39through Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
12:42Two agreements are expected to be signed.
12:44Over 4.5 million Indians call the UAE home.
12:48Their safety and welfare will also be on the agenda.
12:52Then it's Europe.
12:53First up,
12:54The Netherlands.
12:55This is PM Modi's first visit there since 2017.
12:59The Netherlands is India's fourth largest investor,
13:01with over $55 billion in cumulative FDI.
13:05The focus this time is on semiconductors,
13:08green hydrogen,
13:10water technology,
13:11and defense.
13:13These aren't just buzzwords.
13:15They are the building blocks of India's next industrial leap.
13:18Next,
13:19Gothenburg, Sweden.
13:21Bilateral trade has crossed $7.75 billion.
13:25PM Modi will join Swedish PM Ulf Christensen
13:29and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
13:32at the European Roundtable for Industry,
13:34one of Europe's most influential business forums.
13:38The agenda,
13:39AI,
13:40clean energy,
13:41startups,
13:41and resilient supply chains.
13:43Then comes Oslo,
13:45Norway,
13:46a historic visit.
13:47First Indian Prime Minister to visit Norway in 43 years.
13:52And it's not just bilateral.
13:54Oslo hosts the third India-Nordic summit,
13:56bringing together the leaders of Norway,
13:58Denmark,
13:59Finland,
14:00Iceland,
14:00and Sweden.
14:01The focus spans renewable energy,
14:04blue economy,
14:05Arctic cooperation,
14:06and defense.
14:07Norway's government pension fund alone holds close to $28 billion invested in Indian markets.
14:13And final stop,
14:14Rome.
14:15PM Modi will meet President Sergio Matera,
14:18and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
14:21Bilateral trade hit $16.77 billion in 2025.
14:25Both sides are implementing a joint strategic action plan running through 2029,
14:30covering defense,
14:31clean energy,
14:32and innovation.
14:33The timing is sharp.
14:34India and the EU recently concluded a historic free trade agreement,
14:38dubbed as the mother of all trade deals,
14:40and Italy is a key gateway into that new market.
14:44This tour isn't tourism,
14:46it's strategy.
14:47The visit is not just about handshakes and photo ops.
14:50It is about securing oil,
14:52bringing investments,
14:54accessing technology,
14:55building supply chains,
14:56and positioning India as a major global power in an increasingly unstable world.
15:01With Jyoti Shukla,
15:03we will report India Today Global.
15:08New Delhi is hosting two diplomatic universes in the same month,
15:12and they are pulling India in opposite directions.
15:14On one side,
15:16the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting is already underway to show that there is going to be a possibility of a
15:22BRICS summit.
15:23Day one is complete,
15:24and the agenda is already tense.
15:26On the other side,
15:27India is preparing to host the Quad foreign ministers' meeting later this month for a Quad summit later this year.
15:33One grouping includes Iran, Russia and China.
15:37The other is anchored around the United States, Japan and Australia.
15:41And India is sitting at the centre of both tables at once.
15:46Let's start in New Delhi.
15:47The BRICS foreign ministers' meeting is in full swing.
15:50Day one has already exposed the fault lines.
15:53This is the expanded BRICS format.
15:55Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, plus new members, which include Iran and the UAE.
16:03Both have had spats within meetings today itself.
16:07Countries that do not just disagree on policy, they disagree on security, survival and regional alignment.
16:14And the Iran crisis is now the pressure point.
16:17The Iran is pushing hard inside the room.
16:19It wants a unified BRICS statement,
16:21a clear condemnation of the United States and Israel over recent Gulf escalations.
16:27For Iran, this is not about wording.
16:29It is about breaking isolation
16:31and turning BRICS into a diplomatic shield in a rapidly escalating regional confrontation.
16:37But that demand runs straight into resistance
16:39because within the same bloc sit Gulf partners who see the conflict very differently.
16:45The UAE is not aligned with Iran.
16:48It is positioned on the opposite side of the regional divide.
16:51That makes consensus extremely fragile.
16:54And every line of any draft statement becomes a battlefield of language.
17:00India's BRICS chair is trying to hold the centre together.
17:03The goal is a joint statement, something that signals unity.
17:07But the reality on day one is far more complicated.
17:11The more the language moves toward condemnation,
17:13the more divided the room becomes.
17:15And the more neutral it becomes, the less meaningful it looks.
17:19Behind closed doors, the structure of BRICS is being tested in real time.
17:24At the same time, Russia is pushing its own line.
17:27Moscow sees BRICS as a platform to counter Western influence
17:31and reduce dependence on dollar-centred systems.
17:35That agenda adds another layer of pressure on the wording.
17:38Because what some members call multipolarity,
17:42others quietly see as confrontation with the West.
17:45And then there is the economic undercurrent.
17:47Oil markets are already unstable.
17:49The Strait of Hormuz remains a strategic flashpoint.
17:52Every escalation in the Gulf translates into immediate pressure on energy prices.
17:58For India, Egypt, Indonesia and other major importers in the bloc,
18:03this is not abstract geopolitics.
18:06It is inflation risk, transport cost risk, food price risk.
18:12So even as political divisions widen,
18:14there is one shared fear in the room.
18:16Escalation.
18:17Because prolonged conflict in West Asia does not just reshape alliances,
18:22it hits domestic economies inside BRICS directly.
18:25That is why some members are still pushing for at least a diluted consensus.
18:30Not strong condemnation,
18:32but language around de-escalation and regional stability.
18:36And India is carefully positioning itself inside that narrow space.
18:40New Delhi does not want BRICS to turn into an openly anti-West platform.
18:45It also does not want the bloc to fracture under geopolitical pressure.
18:49So its strategy is controlled ambiguity.
18:52Focus on dialogue.
18:54Focus on stability.
18:55Avoid ideological alignment.
18:57Of course, India has deep ties across the Gulf.
19:00Energy dependence on Gulf producers.
19:02Strategic relations with Israel.
19:03Historic and infrastructure links with Iran.
19:06And millions of citizens working across Gulf economies.
19:10But India is not operating in just one arena.
19:14Because later this month,
19:15the Quad Foreign Minister's meeting is also set to take place in New Delhi.
19:19And that meeting pulls India in the opposite strategic direction.
19:23The Quad brings together India, the United States of America, Japan and Australia.
19:28Not as a formal military alliance, but as a coordinated response mechanism to regional security challenges,
19:35especially China's growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
19:39And that is where India's dual positioning becomes visible.
19:43Inside BRICS, India is working to keep the platform from becoming overtly anti-West.
19:49Inside the Quad, it is strengthening strategic coordination with Western partners without becoming formally aligned.
19:56Two forums, two directions, one foreign policy.
20:00But the global environment is making this balance harder to sustain.
20:05The United States and China are locked in sharper competition across trade, technology and security.
20:11Russia remains in confrontation with the West.
20:13Iran is escalating tensions across the Gulf.
20:15And the broader international system is shifting toward competing blocs,
20:20even if most countries still resist admitting it openly.
20:24For India, that creates both opportunity and risk.
20:29The opportunity is influence.
20:31The risk is perception.
20:33At some point, both sides begin to ask where real alignment lies.
20:38BRICS is testing whether a fractured global south can still produce common positions on active conflicts.
20:45The Quad is testing whether Indo-Pacific democracies can sustain coordinated pressure on China without formal alliance structures.
20:54You see, India is now operating at the intersection of both.
20:58Hosting BRICS as chair, hosting the Quad as strategic partner, engaging Russia and Iran on one side,
21:05engaging the US and its allies on the other.
21:08Not choosing between them, but trying to remain indispensable to both.
21:12Whether that strategy holds will depend on one thing, how far global politics moves toward rigid blocs.
21:20If the world hardens into clear camps, India's balancing act will come under severe strain.
21:26But if fragmentation continues, India's position may become one of the most influential in the system.
21:32For now, New Delhi is not choosing between tables.
21:35It is sitting at both.
21:36And as BRICS enters its second day of negotiations and the Quad meeting approaches,
21:42India's foreign policy is being tested in real time, not in theory, but in pressure.
21:47And in a world where every alignment is being watched, that may be the most difficult position of all.
21:55That's all in this edition of Statecraft.
21:57But before we go, France has issued what might be the most bizarre public safety warning ever.
22:02Police in the Burgundy region are telling drivers to beware of a drunk deer.
22:08Yes, actual intoxicated deer.
22:11Authorities say wild animals have been eating fermented fruits and rotten vegetables,
22:15then wandering about around fields with zero self-control.
22:19One deer even went viral after spinning in circles.
22:23Take a look, enjoy, goodbye and take care.
22:50That's come true.
22:51I'm sorry.
22:55I'm sorry.
23:02I'm sorry.
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