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In wenigen Tagen steht Ungarn vor der möglicherweise folgenreichsten Wahl seit Jahrzehnten. Hat die „illiberale Demokratie“ von Viktor Orbán ausgedient?
Ungarns Ministerpräsident Viktor Orbán ist seit den 1990er Jahren die wohl dominanteste politische Persönlichkeit in Österreichs südöstlichem Nachbarland. Mit dem Begriff der „illiberalen Demokratie“ hat er ein System geprägt, das zwar offiziell dem Willen des Volkes gehorcht, im Hintergrund aber ganz nach der Pfeife von Orbán selbst tanzt.
Doch was viele nicht wissen: Bevor er an der Macht kam, stand Orbán selbst für liberale Werte und Demokratie ein, die er als bessere Alternative zum damaligen, sowjetischen Einfluss beschrieb. Heute pflegt er ein freundschaftliches Verhältnis zum russischen Machthaber Wladimir Putin.
Wie also konnte dieser Mann eine solche 180-Grad-Wende hinlegen? Und wie wurde er zu einem der lautesten und effektivsten EU-Kritiker – innerhalb der Europäischen Union? Darum geht es in der ersten Folge unseres neuen Videoformats „DER STANDARD erklärt“. Kurz vor der wohl wichtigsten Wahl in Ungarns jüngerer Vergangenheit stellen wir die Frage: Steht Orbán vor dem politischen Aus, und wird er bald entthront von einem jungen Konkurrenten, den bis vor Kurzem international noch kaum jemand kannte?
In dieser Folge zu sehen: Melanie Raidl (Karriere-Redakteurin und Ungarn-Expertin); Redaktion, Kamera und Schnitt: Tobias Holub; Gestaltung: Yasaman Hasani; Sounddesign: Christoph Neuwirth; Head of Video: Zsolt Wilhelm; alle weiteren Quellen im Video
Thumbnail: IMAGO | Avalon | Giuseppe Lian
Mehr zum Thema und die neuesten Updates auf https://www.derstandard.at.
Ungarns Ministerpräsident Viktor Orbán ist seit den 1990er Jahren die wohl dominanteste politische Persönlichkeit in Österreichs südöstlichem Nachbarland. Mit dem Begriff der „illiberalen Demokratie“ hat er ein System geprägt, das zwar offiziell dem Willen des Volkes gehorcht, im Hintergrund aber ganz nach der Pfeife von Orbán selbst tanzt.
Doch was viele nicht wissen: Bevor er an der Macht kam, stand Orbán selbst für liberale Werte und Demokratie ein, die er als bessere Alternative zum damaligen, sowjetischen Einfluss beschrieb. Heute pflegt er ein freundschaftliches Verhältnis zum russischen Machthaber Wladimir Putin.
Wie also konnte dieser Mann eine solche 180-Grad-Wende hinlegen? Und wie wurde er zu einem der lautesten und effektivsten EU-Kritiker – innerhalb der Europäischen Union? Darum geht es in der ersten Folge unseres neuen Videoformats „DER STANDARD erklärt“. Kurz vor der wohl wichtigsten Wahl in Ungarns jüngerer Vergangenheit stellen wir die Frage: Steht Orbán vor dem politischen Aus, und wird er bald entthront von einem jungen Konkurrenten, den bis vor Kurzem international noch kaum jemand kannte?
In dieser Folge zu sehen: Melanie Raidl (Karriere-Redakteurin und Ungarn-Expertin); Redaktion, Kamera und Schnitt: Tobias Holub; Gestaltung: Yasaman Hasani; Sounddesign: Christoph Neuwirth; Head of Video: Zsolt Wilhelm; alle weiteren Quellen im Video
Thumbnail: IMAGO | Avalon | Giuseppe Lian
Mehr zum Thema und die neuesten Updates auf https://www.derstandard.at.
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00:00So let's say Orban actually wins the election again, then we can assume that...
00:05that his course would actually become even more radical. When he realized there was now very strong opposition,
00:11He will perhaps even more so portray himself as a strong national leader.
00:16What's exciting about this election, and it's really super exciting,
00:20For the first time in 16 years, he has a really strong opponent, Peter Maggiore.
00:32My name is Melanie Reidl, I work in the career section of the Standard newspaper, but I also regularly monitor the political situation in [location missing].
00:38Hungary.
00:39I am myself half Hungarian, half Austrian, and I have this connection to it.
00:43I know Hungary well; I know the people and the politics.
00:50Viktor Orban has been in power in Hungary continuously since 2010.
00:55If one also takes into account his previous term of office from 1998 to 2002,
01:00He has been Prime Minister of Hungary for over two decades.
01:03And he is actually a very special figure, because he really wasn't like he is today back then.
01:10Orban was a liberal political activist as a young student in the 80s.
01:17who actually wanted to bring Western values to Hungary.
01:20There is also a speech by Orban at Heroes' Square in Budapest.
01:28There, in front of tens of thousands of people, he declared that Soviet troops should leave Hungary.
01:35that Hungary should have free elections.
01:36He truly had liberal values and nothing to do with conservatism at all.
01:40That only came later, when Orban realized,
01:43that the liberals will join forces with the post-communists later
01:47and realized there is a political vacuum on the far right.
01:51That is to say, since he is a very power-political person and also a good strategist,
01:57He sensed his opportunities there.
01:59That's why he kept shifting further and further to the right.
02:03He also repeatedly uses the rhetoric of the right wing.
02:06This was seen, for example, in the refugee crisis.
02:08when he spoke about the population exchange.
02:10And he is very, very strongly opposed to the LGBTQ community, for example.
02:16and also in 2014 during a well-known speech he gave in Romania
02:21spoken of as so-called illiberal democracy.
02:24So it sounds like a contradiction in itself, and actually it is.
02:27But for him, that means illiberal democracy.
02:30So, a democracy where you can vote normally, as you know it.
02:34But he doesn't really want anything else.
02:36So, no free press; he wants to control which media outlets report and what they report.
02:41He doesn't actually want a separation of powers; he wants to put his people in the judiciary.
02:45and he doesn't want minority rights and so on.
02:47That is to say, he actually wants to hollow out liberal democracy from within.
02:52And he already did that, by taking office in 2010
02:56immediately afterwards amended the constitution and changed the electoral law accordingly,
03:00that he can achieve a two-thirds majority with Fidesz even with approximately 45 percent.
03:06That's why it's so much harder for the opposition to win against him.
03:10What perhaps distinguishes him from other right-wing populists or right-wing conservatives is,
03:14He is not, for example, an impulsive, loud, shouting populist like Trump.
03:20He is a cool strategist, someone who thinks very carefully about what he does.
03:25and calculated every step, including every blockage or veto,
03:30He thinks about what he puts in the tea beforehand.
03:32And it's about his own power, it's about money,
03:35His aim is not to impulsively make any crazy decisions.
03:44Orban keeps attracting attention in the EU with this,
03:47that he opposes it, especially where unanimity is important.
03:51The most recent example is very significant; he opposed the 90 billion euro package for Ukraine.
03:58that is supposed to provide a loan for them.
04:00So, Ukraine already damaged the so-called Trushpa pipeline in 2025.
04:05This is a pipeline through which Russian oil flows to Hungary.
04:10And that is extremely important for Hungary, for its energy balance.
04:13And now, since January, this pipeline is damaged again.
04:17and Orban accuses Ukraine of no longer wanting to repair this pipeline.
04:28Orban is therefore saying, first please protect our energy supply
04:32And we would like this Russian oil, this cheap oil, please.
04:35Then Ukraine will receive its aid.
04:37We agree that what happened today in the European Council,
04:42We cannot accept this, and there will be consequences.
04:46So, as you can see, Orban has repeatedly opposed EU decisions in the past.
04:51because he wanted to get something out of it for himself and only then did he essentially give in.
04:56The EU, in turn, is reacting by withholding important EU funds from Hungary.
05:01So it's a large multi-billion euro package, approximately 20 billion euros, that Hungary will not receive.
05:07During the refugee crisis, Hungary also refused to implement the right to asylum.
05:11as intended by the EU.
05:13And that's why Hungary was then fined 200 million euros, but it isn't paying it.
05:20So there are a lot of things coming together that make you realize,
05:24that Orban simply doesn't really want to cooperate with the EU
05:28and that he is actually against the idea of the EU.
05:32This means working together and making decisions together.
05:36He would prefer to protect his national interests,
05:39but not let outsiders interfere.
05:42That's the path he's taking.
05:47Orban has a unique position in Russia policy, just as he does in the EU.
05:52So he is definitely the most pro-Russian EU politician, one could actually say.
05:56He is not opposing Russia, he is simply positioning himself, especially now during his election campaign.
06:01against Ukraine and sees Ukraine as the enemy.
06:05As far as Russia is concerned, it is very, very dependent on Russian gas and oil.
06:10and, for example, simply traveled to see Putin during Hungary's EU Council Presidency in 2024.
06:17and negotiated with him, but then didn't actually tell his EU colleagues anything about it.
06:21and ultimately he also looks up to the Russian regime,
06:25because that's also the way he wants to govern.
06:29It simply suits him better.
06:30No free press, a very authoritarian elite, the oligarchs,
06:35This is something that can already be seen in Hungary in this form.
06:39The other thing is that Orban is now focusing his election campaign heavily on foreign policy issues.
06:44For example, he presents himself as a peace politician,
06:47He doesn't want to be drawn into the war with Ukraine at all.
06:51His narrative is that Brussels and Berlin want to drag us into the war.
06:56Zelenskyy wants to drag us into the war.
06:58He doesn't actually mention Russia as an aggressor at all.
07:00and he is already using AI-generated videos with his party Fidesz, for example.
07:06where very gruesome things are shown, such as execution scenes or crying children,
07:11whose fathers had to go to war, and so on and so forth.
07:14And that's how this narrative arises: Ukraine wants to drag us into it.
07:19It's a war that isn't ours, and we actually want peace.
07:22We want nothing to do with it, and so Ukraine simply remains his enemy image, so to speak.
07:30But you can see that with Orban too, has it always been seen that way?
07:33He always needs an opponent.
07:36In the past, he has viewed Brussels as an opponent, and has done so much.
07:39so again and again with his blockades and vetoes.
07:42Then it was the billionaire George Soros during the refugee crisis,
07:46whom he portrayed as fueling the refugee crisis.
07:50Orban always needs an opponent, and now it's Ukraine.
07:57So the exciting thing about the current election, and it really is super exciting,
08:01The thing is that there is a very large opposition this time.
08:04And for the first time in 16 years, he has a really strong opponent, Peter Magyar.
08:09Peter Magyar comes from within his own ranks; he comes from the Fidesz party himself.
08:13is the ex-husband of former Justice Minister Judith Varga,
08:16who was also Minister of Justice under Orban.
08:19and he knows the Fidesz system from the inside.
08:32He knows the people, he knows how the party works,
08:36However, in 2024 he also publicly distanced himself from the party.
08:41left the company and did his own thing.
08:43He then took over the TISA party, which was previously very small.
08:46Nobody really knew about it; he then made the party big himself.
08:50and has since presented himself as the perfect opponent for Orban.
08:54He presents himself as very EU-friendly and actually wants to cooperate with the EU.
08:58He has primarily hijacked the anti-corruption issue for himself,
09:02because he also realized that this is a huge issue in society.
09:07that there is a lot of corruption, that Orban is the great authoritarian ruler,
09:12to whom everything in the country belongs.
09:23And he simply takes advantage of the fact that the majority of people in the country are actually conservative,
09:29So they actually don't want a liberal left-wing liberator at all right now.
09:33but he himself is also conservative and actually rather right of center or more in the middle, so to speak.
09:41But he is not a left-wing, green politician who is completely different from Orban.
09:47He actually follows a similar path in many things.
09:50Therefore, he can actually win over the Weder of Fides for himself.
09:54and has therefore become very popular.
09:58So you can see it in the surveys now, depending of course on which surveys you look at.
10:03However, there are government-affiliated institutions that still see Fides in the lead with approximately 46 to 50 percent.
10:11But independent institutions, on the other hand, see TISA at around 40 to 50 percent, exactly the opposite, and Fides at 40 percent.
10:22That means they would no longer have a two-thirds majority.
10:25There is a high chance that Orban will actually lose this election.
10:29Although US Vice President Shady Vance had visited him beforehand.
10:33and also stirred up quite a bit of support for Orban and Fides.
10:36And there were also some reports beforehand that Russia was interfering in the election.
10:41But I don't assume that there is now a large-scale election fraud, where ballots are also being falsified.
10:46But it's still not easy for the opposition, because of course 90 percent of the media in the country still belong to Orban.
10:54But it is still true, especially in places where Orban had a lot of fans.
11:03That the people in the country are actually quite dissatisfied with him.
11:07The economic situation is very bad, especially since the coronavirus pandemic; inflation in Hungary has been really high.
11:13For a while, it was actually the highest in the EU.
11:16And they simply realize that none of what he's saying actually adds up anymore.
11:29They want a regime change, so to speak, and for them Peter Magyar is truly an alternative that didn't exist before.
11:38did not exist.
11:41So let's say Orban actually wins the election again.
11:45Then one can assume that his course will either become even more radical or simply remain just as radical.
11:52If he realized there was very strong opposition, he might become even more concerned than the strong
11:58somehow stage national leaders
12:00and want to take an even stronger stance against the EU.
12:03That's a safe assumption, and they will probably want to strengthen themselves even further.
12:07by simply wanting to control the judiciary and the media even more.
12:11Simply so that he can further strengthen his power.
12:15If Peter Magyar wins, one can assume that relations with the EU will improve.
12:23He also spoke out on issues such as education, health, and so on.
12:27So he also wants to create an improvement for society here, whether that will happen in this form or not.
12:32not.
12:33Because, as I said, he is still a right-wing conservative politician.
12:37He is not some liberal leftist who will suddenly do everything completely differently.
12:41He will do many things in a similar way to Orban.
12:44But above all, he wants to eliminate the corruption that is happening within the country.
12:50And that all contracts always go to Orban's friends, and that the universities are all owned by many people.
12:56So he wants to end that.
12:58But the fact that there is now a particularly liberal one, that Hungary is becoming particularly liberal, and that conservatism is coming to an end, that will
13:07probably won't happen.
13:08It is a very important election, especially for all of Europe, because it will decide what happens to the
13:14Aid to Ukraine continues.
13:16And what will happen to a very conservative country that has always been very opposed to the EU?
13:22So this is an election that will be very, very exciting for Hungary, but also for the entire EU.
13:27And of course also for Austria, because we are a very strong trading partner of Hungary.
13:34And we also have strong economic ties with our neighboring country.
13:38And of course, this also concerns what the situation is like at the borders, i.e., what the migration policy will be like.
13:44further looks.
13:45At the same time, Orban's Fidesz is also very strongly linked to the Austrian FPÖ and they are also together in this parliamentary group.
13:52EU group Patriots for Europe.
13:55So he will probably want the ties to become even stronger if he remains in power.
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