00:00There's a question out there that's beginning to build, Chop.
00:02Yeah.
00:03Which is, do the Cowboys say, let's roll the dice and let's go up?
00:09Which, there's a thought process here.
00:14You do not have a second round pick.
00:16Okay?
00:17You've added a third finally, but you don't have a second round pick.
00:20You've got your two firsts.
00:23In a weaker draft, do you say,
00:27well, then I think the pressure is on to trade up even more
00:31because you've got to make sure you get one of the guys?
00:35Or do you say in a weaker draft,
00:37no, you need to bail out of there then
00:40so that you don't get stuck with bad value at 12
00:42and you just try to pick up as much capital as you can
00:44to try and spend to get you as many pieces as you can
00:48so that you can get a decent class from all the picks you've spent?
00:51I've always been of the mindset of trading.
00:56I mean, I'm a seller.
00:58I want to sell.
01:00I want to sell at the trade deadline.
01:02ABS?
01:03Yeah.
01:04Or ABC.
01:05Always be closing.
01:06Always be closing.
01:08You know, to me, if you were to go back and look historically,
01:11sellers win, buyers lose.
01:13Yes, typically in draft trades they do.
01:16Yeah, so I always want to be the one selling.
01:19So that would be you would want to bail out of both picks or one?
01:22I would like to bail out of both.
01:23I would like to go for 12 to 16 and 20 to, you know,
01:28probably not to the second round.
01:29But if I go back to, you know, 29 and pick up an extra whatever,
01:34yeah, I think that's how you really build your roster.
01:36So there have been some suggestions out there in recent days that...
01:39And by the way, if I stayed at 20, I'm fine with that too.
01:41There have been some reports that maybe the Cowboys could be interested
01:46in going up a little bit.
01:47Todd McShay even went as far as suggesting, did not report,
01:50but suggested maybe three.
01:53Maybe the Cowboys go up to three for David Bailey.
01:55Arizona, right?
01:56Mm-hmm.
01:56And the Cowboys, there have been reports out there that they have had visits
01:59with Arvel Reese and visits with David Bailey.
02:02So to go from 12 to three, you're going to have to give up 12, 20,
02:06and next year's...
02:08I don't know.
02:08Let's take a look at that and see what it is.
02:10So here's the thing.
02:12The 30 visits that teams get, these are like really strong indications
02:17of guys they want to get answers about or guys that they're interested in
02:20or whatever it may be.
02:21The fact that they're interviewing Arvel Reese and David Bailey,
02:25as reported by Ian Rappaport on Friday,
02:28those are two guys not supposed to get out of the top three.
02:31Right.
02:31That sounds like a team that's wanting to go up.
02:33And there's rumors that the Cowboys could go up to three,
02:36could go up to six, could go up to nine.
02:39So what exactly would that cost?
02:41Because we've all heard about the trade value chart.
02:44The very famous Jimmy Johnson trade value chart.
02:46Which has been changed a lot.
02:48Now it's more based off of position and not number.
02:50Well, it's still used sort of, like, I mean, it's applied in the same sort of way,
02:56which is every single pick, for those of you that don't know,
02:59every single pick has a point value on it.
03:01Right.
03:01All the way down through, from pick one, all the way down to pick, you know, 251.
03:07And pick one, for instance, is worth 3,000.
03:11Pick two is worth 2,600.
03:13Pick three is worth 2,200.
03:14And you keep on going down.
03:16And then you start at top of the second round.
03:18Top of the second round, pick 33 is worth 580.
03:20Then 560.
03:21And by the time you get into the fourth round, you're under 100 for a point value.
03:25By the time you get into the seventh round, everything's under five.
03:28So, that's the way that point values have generally worked.
03:31And it's something that people reference all the time.
03:32When a trade goes down with draft capital, they go, okay, let's take a look.
03:35Let's see if, did the points match up?
03:36Who won?
03:37Who got a good value there?
03:38And I was curious over the weekend, how much teams have followed that?
03:44Like, how much is there actually a commitment to this point value?
03:47And if it's not a commitment to the trade value chart consistently,
03:52what do we need to adjust?
03:54And what do we need to change our expectation for?
03:56Well, no, just because the point values match up there,
03:59that does not mean you can go up and get that.
04:00Right.
04:01Like, to me, if I was looking at this, my interpretation of it is if I was a team,
04:06let's say I was Arizona.
04:08And let's say, for example, this was a draft where there was multiple quarterbacks in the draft.
04:12And you're wanting to go from 10 to 3.
04:16I know you're going for a quarterback.
04:20Right?
04:21I'm going to charge you more to go from 10 to 3 to get a quarterback
04:25than I would charge a team going from 10 to 3 that is just going to take an edge rusher.
04:28Maybe.
04:29If I was the team that was at the third spot, I was like, oh, look, I know you're getting
04:33a quarterback.
04:34This is worth, you know, a top-flight quarterback is worth three edge rushers.
04:39So I'm going to charge you more for this.
04:40So I took a look at teams in the last five years.
04:44I've got data from further back.
04:46But I really sorted and organized everything from the last five years.
04:50And I only did trades that involved, that were first-rounders.
04:54And I only did trades that involved picks.
04:56So I did not include, for instance, the Bears trade with the Panthers
05:01because the point values don't match up.
05:04But DJ Moore was also thrown in there.
05:06So I don't know how much they would have valued DJ.
05:09We could speculate, but then we're inserting speculation instead of just looking at the value numbers.
05:13You're taking away trades with players.
05:15Yes, which is not a ton of them, but there have been, you know, three or four of them that
05:19have existed.
05:20And then what I've got is the value return.
05:23So the value return is going to be you take the total number of points.
05:28Let me try to explain this in as simple terms as I can.
05:30If you're Dallas at pick 12 and you're trying to go up to pick six, pick six would be worth
05:391,600 points.
05:41So we would take the 1,600 points you have coming in and then the total points from your picks
05:47that you gave up.
05:49And whatever the difference is, if you gave up 1,800 points, for instance, and you ended up receiving 1
05:55,600, that's a 200-point difference.
05:58So the difference in the points there is then a percentage of the team's outgoing value.
06:05So basically 200 divided by 1,800, what is that percentage?
06:10And then if it's minus 200 by 1,800.
06:13So you then get an idea of percentage-wise how far.
06:16By the way, I said, yeah, but that math went right over my head.
06:18I know, but what I'm saying is basically you don't want a negative number.
06:21A negative number here means you overpaid by a percentage.
06:24A positive number means you got good value back.
06:29And then what I did was I eliminated from this anything that was between 3%.
06:34Okay?
06:35So if, for instance, you spent, if you acquired something that cost 1,000 points,
06:41if you were either in the positive or the negative within 30% of that 1,000,
06:50then I just went ahead and said that you were following the trade chart.
06:53Because you're not going to match up points exactly.
06:55So 3% there, if you're 30 points for every 1,000,
06:59I'm going to say that you're playing within the chart.
07:01And so that's just a zero value difference.
07:03That's you followed the trade chart.
07:04So all that to say, in the last five years,
07:08the most expensive trade-up,
07:10the one that cost the absolute most by a ridiculous margin,
07:15was not for a quarterback.
07:17It was actually last year when somebody valued a certain Tennessee volunteer
07:21a great deal.
07:23James Pierce?
07:24The James Pierce trade-up from the Falcons is the most expensive trade-up
07:27in the last five years by far.
07:29And they went, what was that, 30, 29?
07:31They went up 20 spots.
07:33They went from 46 to 26.
07:37And what they offered up was, let me see what the exact,
07:41because they traded their first rounder this year.
07:42They don't have one.
07:44So they traded a first for a future trade-up.
07:46I'm trying to think,
07:46the only other one that I can think of in recent history that's happened with
07:49for an edge rusher was Sean Payton did that for Marcus Davenport,
07:53where he traded up and dealt away a first rounder.
07:57But they gave up a ton of capital there.
07:59The second biggest trade-value trade-up,
08:01where they lost the most points on it.
08:03And this, by the way, for Atlanta to the Rams,
08:05the biggest trade-value, minus 22% for Atlanta on this trade-value return.
08:10The second highest one is actually Chicago to the Giants,
08:18which is Justin Fields.
08:20That's the Justin Fields trade-up,
08:22so we had a quarterback involved there.
08:23But the third highest one is Detroit going up to Dallas last year.
08:29When Dallas traded back for Tyler,
08:31or two years ago, when Dallas traded back for Tyler Guyton.
08:34Oh, wow.
08:35And Detroit had moved up for,
08:36I can't remember who they went up and got,
08:37but it was not a quarterback.
08:39It was, I don't know who it was.
08:40It was, uh...
08:43No, I thought I was going to say it was Jack Campbell.
08:45I think that was Terry on Arnold.
08:46Maybe.
08:47That is who that was.
08:48And then the third biggest trade-up,
08:50or the fourth biggest trade-up,
08:51Miami to Philly going 12-6 in 2021 to take Jalen Waddell.
08:56And they gave up 10.9% on the deal.
08:59So three of the biggest four trades don't even involve quarterbacks.
09:03Which is...
09:04That's surprising to me.
09:05That's surprising to me.
09:06Now, out of these 28 first-round trades that I've looked at,
09:1016 of them were either zero on the trade value chart,
09:15like they matched up the trade values,
09:17or they were actually the team that traded up one points on it,
09:21and actually one value in trading up.
09:24Oh, wow.
09:25Which just sounds like somebody screwed up.
09:27But those instances, that's only happened three times.
09:2913 have been done.
09:30But that means 12 out of the 28 times,
09:32you're overpaying by some amount to go up.
09:35Yeah, I suppose when they trade up and they get...
09:37The people who trade up actually win the deal,
09:39I think part of that is that team that was trading back
09:42didn't have a whole lot of takers.
09:43They were like, look, I'll just take 75 cents on the dollar.
09:46Because I've seen that spot.
09:48If I was a team that didn't want...
09:49If I was picking third, and I'm Arizona,
09:52and I don't want to pay a super high-priced lotto ticket,
09:57right, because that's what it is,
09:58it doesn't matter who it is, right?
09:59That person's going to be a high-priced lottery ticket.
10:03Yeah, I'd be like, yeah, I'll trade down,
10:04and you don't want to give me...
10:05And it's worth 1,000 points.
10:07And you want to give me 900 points?
10:09I'm like, all right, fine.
10:10That's close enough.
10:12History has told us, basically, so let's take a look.
10:13The Stouts does not have the capital to trade up to 3,
10:16based on this history.
10:17If the league is telling you this is what market value is...
10:19You mean in this year's draft?
10:20They don't have the capital to go to control.
10:22They have to give up 20, and then next year's 1.
10:24Probably.
10:25And that's just a no for me.
10:27Because then, like, you trade Micah for just two players.
10:33In fact, next year's 1 doesn't even...
10:35No, next year's 1 gets you close.
10:37Probably about that, yeah.
10:39It'd be 20 and next year's 1 to get 3.
10:41It's a lot.
10:42It's a lot, man.
10:43And I wouldn't want to do that.
10:45So, Cleveland at 6 is a really popular one.
10:47And we had talked about 12 and 20 for 6 and 39.
10:51If you trade your 12th pick and your 20th pick for the Browns' 6 in the first round,
10:56and then they're 39 in the second, that's even trade value.
10:59So, you're like, okay, perfect.
11:00I can go make that swap.
11:02History tells us you're paying about a 10% tax to go up that high
11:06and to make that sort of a deal.
11:08So, that means what's actually likely, Chop,
11:11is that Dallas would more likely have to go 12 and 20 for pick 6 and then 70.
11:18So, you would not be getting that second rounder in all likelihood.
11:22You would be going up to 6 with 12 and 20,
11:24and then what you'd be getting back to kind of even the count would be their third rounder.
11:28And is that nearly as attractive to go up there and lose that extra first?
11:32Again, I don't think so.
11:34And then Kansas City, if you were to do 12 to 9,
11:39and you were to let Kansas City come up from 29 to 20.
11:42So, you basically just trade your firsts.
11:4412 and 20 for 9 and 29.
11:47That trade right there gives Kansas City about 50 points on you.
11:52Like, they get the value by about 50 points.
11:55Is it sort of a fifth?
11:56No, that's about what it costs.
11:58To go up even three spots would be just a small,
12:00basically you've got to eat a small cost.
12:02That says, all right, you've got to eat a little bit of that.
12:04So, Dallas in all likelihood is not just going to get even trade value.
12:07From the 401, I don't know where that is.
12:10In my opinion, you have to go up.
12:11You have no difference makers on defense.
12:13Downs would change a lot.
12:14Sounds stupid trading up for safety, but he's going to be vital.
12:17I don't think it does sound stupid 401.
12:19I think that he is a difference maker.
12:21And in today's NFL and in Christian Parker's defense,
12:23since those safeties, those hybrid nickel players are massive pieces.
12:27I love them.
12:28I don't know that I'd trade up to five or six for them.
12:30That's a lot.
12:31Because like you said.
12:32I do think nine makes some sense.
12:34If it takes just a you swap your firsts with Kansas City,
12:37I think going up three spots to ensure you get one of the
12:41Monsoor, Delaney, Sonny Stiles, Caleb Downs,
12:43because there's probably one of them left there.
12:45Yeah.
12:45I think that's worth it.
12:46All right.
12:46Well, that's good stuff, Bobby Bell.
12:48Good stuff.
12:49A little trade value rumors swirling.
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