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The big talking point of this episode of Democratic Newsroom is the West Asia war. As the war escalates, US allies gave a cold shoulder to President Donald Trump's appeal to deploy their warships to the Strait of Hormuz to reopen the strategic oil route blocked by Iran.
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00:01A very good evening. You're joining me here on Democratic Newsroom.
00:06This after a major movement and escalation that we've seen with oil gas fields being hit.
00:14There are attacks and counter-attacks. Where does this leave America?
00:19Where President Donald Trump has come out and said he knew nothing about it.
00:23Is America isolated? That's the question we'll be debating this evening.
00:28Joining me are Raj Engappa. He's the editor, India Today Group Publishing.
00:34Sumit Chaudhary, a colleague from Architak. Sandeep Unitan, senior journalist.
00:38Gaurav Sawant, senior managing editor, India Today TV.
00:44And Siddharth Zarabi, he's the managing editor, Business Today.
00:49Let's begin with you, Siddharth. Bloodbath, mayhem in the markets?
00:54Well, this is clearly something that we should now call Trump's war on the world's energy matrix.
01:03I'm no longer now comfortable calling it the West Asia crisis or Gulf War 3.0.
01:08And certainly it's not still World War 3.
01:10But it is a nuclear bomb that has been thrown on the world's oil and gas sector.
01:18Mid-70s, we remember the crisis.
01:21But this is far beyond what we have ever imagined.
01:25Let me just give you some quick statistics to put in perspective.
01:28I have in front of me a report, which I bought for this show.
01:34Mid of December last year, which is just three months away,
01:40the projection for crude oil prices at a global level was just $51.
01:47Brent crude, which is one of the benchmarks, which is widely tracked globally,
01:51is more than double that now.
01:54Now, let's come to India.
01:57And because this is the democratic newsroom where we try and bust myths,
02:02people track Brent or WTI or other grades of crude oil.
02:07Don't track that.
02:08Track something called the Indian basket of crude,
02:10which is at $147 to the barrel.
02:13Now, you may ask why?
02:14Because the Indian basket of crude is an aggregate of multiple types of crude that we buy.
02:20And then that becomes the pricing that we aggregate.
02:23If the Indian basket is at $146, what did our budget,
02:27which was presented just on the 1st of February,
02:31have projected for the new fiscal year, which is beginning 1st April?
02:35Right.
02:35It was $60, $65 less as a projected price.
02:42So, the disruption in oil and gas is something that Gita and to all our eminent colleagues here
02:50has not been part of any projection for the longest.
02:56So, nobody knows what is going on.
02:58And one final word.
03:00If the conflict were to stop tomorrow…
03:04It will still not stabilize.
03:05It will not stabilize because the second order, third order and nth order effects are far beyond oil,
03:13including chemicals, including minerals and God forbid fertilizers.
03:18And that is why you see this sense of urgency in the government of India
03:24to now go beyond protecting just our energy security to our fertilizer and agriculture security.
03:30So, is Trump on his way to being completely isolated?
03:35I ask you this again.
03:36The United States is surplus in oil and gas.
03:41You know…
03:42They don't care.
03:43They don't care.
03:44They don't care.
03:44They simply don't care.
03:45Gaurav, isolated or not?
03:48So, US does have Israel with it or Israel, you know, they're actually joined at the hip right now
03:54as far as these operations are concerned.
03:56Mark Rutte just a short while back said, you know, other countries' allies,
04:01they're seeing how sea lanes of communication and especially the Strait of Hormuz can be kept open.
04:05Now, should that happen in some way?
04:08Is he only hedging because he's once called Trump Daddy?
04:11So, you know, Daddy's got Europe in trouble.
04:13Daddy's got NATO in trouble.
04:15And the world is in trouble.
04:16Can Daddy get the world out of trouble?
04:18I don't think so.
04:19We're really in trouble now.
04:21Okay.
04:22Sandeep?
04:22I see an intense battle in the Straits of Hormuz Gita.
04:26There is an amphibious ready group that's crossed the Straits of Malacca.
04:31It's entered the Indian Ocean region.
04:32There are thousands, over 2,000 Marines there.
04:35There are three warships capable of assaulting and capturing islands.
04:40My sense is that Trump is going to go for Khark Island, which is the most sensitive island possibly on
04:46the planet.
04:47That's where 90% of Iran's oil and gas is pumped out of.
04:50Trump wants to grab that to get leverage over Iran.
04:54He doesn't have that leverage now.
04:55Sandeep, that makes, Raj, that makes the entire GCC uncomfortable.
05:00This kind of escalation, where if Sandeep is saying that, you know, they're looking at Khark Island, that would make
05:05the entire GCC uncomfortable, because this is escalation.
05:09Are you looking at an isolated Trump or not?
05:11Of course, he's isolated diplomatically, but let's not forget he has cards.
05:16And as Sandeep was also mentioning, there's a boots-on-the-ground card that he has, which is America still
05:22has overwhelming military superiority, not just in the Gulf, but right across the world.
05:28So that's an option he has.
05:29What we are seeing is that the war has moved away from coalition, as we've seen when the moment NATO
05:35refused to participate in providing troops or bringing warships in there, to one of coerciveness.
05:44And so the coerciveness card is now being operated, a very dangerous card.
05:49You can see the war of the refineries, that's one, and we are seeing that happening now, where you could
05:54end up with really a disastrous position that Siddharth talked about, the nuclear, though I wouldn't call it a nuclear
06:00bomb, since I know the devastating effects of them.
06:04But, Raj, Trump has nuked global energy.
06:08Massive.
06:08In terms of the impact of it.
06:11So certainly that's something that we need to look at.
06:14Then there's going to be the war of the tankers, which is, in some senses, what Sandeep is talking about.
06:19You capture Kharg and you try and control, as a bargaining chip, you say, OK, I will, until you freeze
06:25the, I mean, free up the Hormuz, I'm not going to allow you to pump up oil.
06:31So these are all very dangerous options.
06:33These are no more in the realm of where you can calculate what is going to happen.
06:37We are getting into very dangerous waters, and any prognosis at the moment is not good.
06:43OK, we'll flip the question, but first we'll go to Sumit.
06:47Sumit, it's a coalition of two.
06:49Of course, Trump is a little isolated because nobody's joining this coalition.
06:53What's your reading?
06:54Well, you can call it that Trump is isolated with whom?
06:59From European countries.
07:00He doesn't care about the European countries.
07:02The only concern for him is the closeness of Middle East with the Iran, which is a major concern before
07:08this operation started.
07:09So he's, he, he always, he, he, observing all these incidents, and after that, when the, when these operations started,
07:17one more, one most important achievement, which America has achieved, is the isolation of Middle East from the Iranian supremacy,
07:25or the leadership.
07:26Now the GCC or the Middle East countries have been condemning Iran, their attacks, their military power, their influence in
07:34the other countries like Syria, like Iraq.
07:37So that is what America is looking for, that.
07:39And that is what they have achieved after this operation.
07:42They might not achieve all those things, but they have achieved that.
07:45So they are not taking any action.
07:46So yes, in a way, America is kind of isolated.
07:50But let's flip the question, Gaurav, and ask whether Iran is losing the war or not.
07:56What's your reading?
07:57Is Iran losing the war over here?
08:00More important.
08:01Not yet.
08:02Not yet.
08:03Iran continues to strike and strike hard, whether it's in the heart of Israel, whether it's vital assets and vital
08:10points in Qatar, in Saudi Arabia, in the United Arab Emirates.
08:14They can strike at will.
08:17The number of missiles may be down.
08:19Remember, now it's day 20.
08:21Now if the world's biggest superpower and the two best air forces, amongst the two best air forces in the
08:26world, the United States and Israel together, cannot bring Iran to its knees in 20 days, will they be able
08:33to do that in 30 days?
08:34Will they be able to?
08:35Maybe not.
08:36Sandeep, will they be able to?
08:37It doesn't look like it.
08:38Will they pull out with Iran still standing together?
08:44Let's define victory and defeat in this context.
08:47For Iran, victory would mean survival.
08:50If Iran survives, if the regime survives, they've won.
08:53For the United States to win, because they are the sole superpower, they have this overwhelming force, as Raj was
08:59mentioning, they have to comprehensively defeat the Iranian regime.
09:03Till, as to quote Trump, that they have to cry uncle, they have to beg for forgiveness, they have to
09:09plead and they have to surrender.
09:10I don't see either of these happening.
09:12The regime could just survive, but just barely so.
09:17The United States doesn't look like it can achieve this kind of victory from the air, and this is the
09:21scary part.
09:23There has been only one instance in history of the last hundred years where an air war has been won
09:30from the air, and that is Imperial Japan.
09:34The defeat of Japan in 1945 was possible from the air because they dropped atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
09:41And that is why I am so afraid of this conflict.
09:44I have been writing about this for the last two or three weeks.
09:46Is it going to go nuclear?
09:48This could go nuclear.
09:49The World Health Organization believes there is a fear of nuclear weapons being used here.
09:54They are preparing for contingencies.
09:57Raj Engappa has written an entire book on it.
10:00Raj, can it go nuclear?
10:01Let's look at the objectives of the war, which everyone says is so vague, but the fact is that one
10:07of the biggest objectives of this war was that the fear that Iran had begun to cross the Rubicon and
10:14become a nuclear power.
10:15And therefore, this whole business of, let us now nip it at the bud before it gets really out of
10:21hand.
10:22And the feeling was that these 400 cages of enriched uranium could have been easily converted into bomb material grade.
10:29So, if you see the moves that could happen after this, if Iran wants to demonstrate that it has the
10:35nuclear capability, it will do a nuclear test.
10:39Right?
10:39And if it does a nuclear test, that changes the whole perspective, as we have seen with North Korea.
10:44Then everybody is hands-off, right?
10:46Because you cannot tamper with the nuclear.
10:47Now, that could be a bluff in the sense, I have only that much.
10:50I have just done a crude test.
10:51And therefore, it might do another test.
10:53So, that's one aspect of the nuclear damage.
10:55I'm not very sure whether Trump would want to employ tactical nukes to do the kind of damage that he
11:02believes he tried to do in June, when he did hit some of the reactors.
11:08So, what would be the thing that they're most worried about?
11:11Is these 400 KDs being moved?
11:14And from what we know is that, though they have bombed these reactors, this material that can be taken in
11:20canisters or wherever, this enriched uranium, has been dispersed to various places.
11:24So, one of the things, apart from the Karg Island option, is that America flies in with its top guys.
11:3382nd Airborne.
11:3482nd Airborne.
11:35Stands in those places and pulls out all the…
11:38The moment you get all the nuclear material, Iran has nothing.
11:41But the moment you put boots on ground, you have the Basij, the IRGC, the Iranian forces.
11:48Boots on ground has never been a happy experience.
11:50I've seen Vietnam.
11:53And for America, it has never been a good experience.
11:55Sumit, what's your assessment?
11:57You've traveled to Tehran, you've seen Iran.
12:00Is there a possibility of defeating Iran without putting boots on the ground?
12:06So, well, this war is between the war of supremacy, one of the finest and the biggest military power in
12:12the world, and the war between the endurance.
12:16Iran has endurance to fight for a longer period.
12:18America has a power of a great power, like they have nuclear weapons, they have submarines, they have naval power.
12:24But when you go through both these statements from the American and the Iranian side, Iranian side always mention, we
12:30are ready for a long war.
12:32American side always say, we are only here for small operations.
12:35We will achieve all these operations very soon and we will come out from that.
12:39We are not going to repeat Iraq.
12:41So, this clearly mentioned that there is a conflict of objective and there is a conflict of the strategy to
12:47fight this war.
12:48America doesn't want to fight for a longer period.
12:51That's why they want to end this war at that particular place, at that particular point, from where they can
12:55prove we have achieved what we have to achieve for this operation.
12:58So, Geeta, just to add, you know, we focused on the energy map being redrawn.
13:06As a consequence, just to add on, it's very clear, regardless of the final outcomes, and Raj and Sandeep and
13:13all of you could come in on this,
13:15it is clear that West Asia's security map has also been redrawn.
13:19So far, the United States of America was the ultimate security provider, the umbrella for the entire West Asian region,
13:28including from Iran.
13:30And what has these 20 days shown us?
13:32That regardless of the pummeling that Iran has taken, any target, including refineries, including airports, including a storage terminal,
13:42even today is within reach of Iran, after having seen 20 days of sustained bombing.
13:49Very, very important point.
13:49Second point, those radars that were blown up within the first two, three days,
13:55American defense contractors who have had a complete run of West Asia, barring what the USSR and to some extent
14:03Russia had,
14:05will now no longer be seen as favored protectors and guarantors of regional security.
14:11That is a very important point.
14:13And the final point, Geetha, I think, you know, let's also look at an advantage from the Indian context.
14:20I am an eternal optimist.
14:22And I would believe that this is the time, once the dust settles down, for India to step up,
14:29to play a bigger role as a guarantor and provider, don't crucify me on those two words,
14:37of West Asian security, using our naval power, as well as our relationships across...
14:44The diplomacy bit.
14:45I just have...
14:47Not that I disagree.
14:48We need to...
14:49Fair enough, we can do all that.
14:50But let's...
14:51I mean, the realistic position is, and you mentioned it earlier,
14:55the fallout in India is going to be tremendous right now itself.
14:58You already talked of the energy crisis that is going to build.
15:02Oil, we might have a certain assurance.
15:05Certainly LPG, we don't.
15:06We depend a hell of a lot.
15:0740% of our imports come from there.
15:09And that's already hit badly.
15:11You can see the impact that's happening.
15:13Take a look at every sector that you're working on.
15:16And what I think is going to happen now is a crisis very similar to what happened during COVID.
15:22And while I must commend the government, at the moment they do have a sort of a whole-of-government
15:26approach
15:27in terms of bringing all these people to brief us every day,
15:30it has to move from firefighting to absolute crisis management.
15:34Because you now know that this war is not going to end very quickly.
15:37It is going to get worse.
15:38Can I just interject?
15:38And therefore, I'll just finish.
15:40Every single aspect of that impact that is going to happen,
15:43whether you're looking at the hospitality sector, which is really going to be in deep trouble,
15:47airlines, whether you're looking at fertilizers, which you mentioned,
15:50where agriculture is going to be a problem.
15:52Take a look at any of the other industries, ceramics,
15:55wherever you see problems where you need energy or in some senses supply.
16:00Okay, quick, Prabhatu, and then I need my last question.
16:02One quick point, Geeta.
16:05Very grandiosely, the United States said that we are giving a month-long waiver for Russian oil on the high
16:11seas.
16:12I agree.
16:12That is now a permanent state that will exist.
16:15And I am going out on a limb and saying here, gone are the days when the United States can
16:22leverage us,
16:23try and blackball us for purchasing Russian oil and gas.
16:26You're saying we will not succumb to American pressure on Russian oil?
16:30Trade deal.
16:31No trade deal.
16:32That is now the lifeline for this country.
16:36And I am going out on a limb to say this.
16:38America doesn't come out smelling of roses from this conflict at all.
16:42If there's a positive takeaway from this war, maybe it's just this.
16:46You know, that nobody will be blackmailed by America anymore.
16:49You know, there's no positives, Geeta, I'm sorry to say.
16:52I know, I know.
16:52I'm just saying that, you know, that the fact that America…
16:54This war is already creating the kind of disaster that we don't want to happen.
16:58Yes.
16:59We might cheer later Russian oil.
17:01This is all in the realm of speculation.
17:03The fact is, we don't know.
17:05I think Gaurav had speculated at some point.
17:08Trump has a lot of cards, let's not forget.
17:10He has oil also.
17:11It's not like America's oil is going to vanish.
17:14He actually has multiple objectives in this war.
17:17Yeah, which is right.
17:17He punctures China.
17:18I don't have a lot of time.
17:20So, we have to see the larger game plan.
17:21But, of course, yes, we can talk and talk about this.
17:24But in the larger perspective, let's just focus on one area and one area alone,
17:28because we are completely out of time over here.
17:32The Middle East countries, West Asian countries, had warned America against this war.
17:38He still went ahead with Israel.
17:41So, the question, and I start with Sumit and then we'll go around.
17:43The table is, will America be isolated once this war ends, at least from the West Asian perspective?
17:51Are the Arab world again going to question whether they should have bases, American bases on their soil?
17:58Which Siddharth had, I'm just extending what Siddharth said.
18:01Well, Gita, after this war is over, only one point is there.
18:05What is the sense of security after this war is over that Iran is not going to attack again on
18:11all these areas and they're not disrupting the state of Hormuz?
18:13The only sense of security is Hormuz Island, because America will take the charge of this island just to make
18:20everybody ensure that Iran is not going to attack us because we are in the control of this island.
18:26And there will be a negotiation between Iran and the American side on this particular issue.
18:31That's why they are moving their navy so fast in this particular area.
18:34And they are also assuring the Middle East countries that this is the sense of security we are going to
18:39provide you also, beside the air defense systems, that now Iran is not going to attack you.
18:44And this will be the last or the, I think, conclusion of this war when this is going to end.
18:49Okay, which is what they are also saying.
18:51But quickly, Raj.
18:52Well, I have a very optimistic view of things that are happening.
18:55But look, this is a war of choice.
18:57As we can see it now confirmed by his own national ex-counterterrorism expert and also by some of their
19:05top officials.
19:06And Oman has confirmed that there was an option which he didn't exercise.
19:09So this is a war of choice and this is a war where the, as it progresses, gets even more
19:15disastrous.
19:16Forget the isolation part.
19:18At every step, we will pay not just the U.S., not just the Gulf, but India will pay.
19:24Of course.
19:24This is the first war of the 21st century where American assets, personnel have been targeted relentlessly for 20 days.
19:32I cannot imagine any other war in the 21st century where American troops, infrastructure have been hammered this way.
19:39But that said, I am an optimist when it comes to American military power.
19:44America has the capability to bounce back.
19:47It is an enormously powerful regime and a government.
19:51It will bounce back.
19:52It will never leave the Middle East.
19:54It will never leave West Asia because it is too deeply invested in the region.
19:58It is what the British once called the West Asia was that these are the wells of power.
20:03And the British stayed there.
20:05They handed the baton over to the Americans.
20:07The Americans will continue to stay there, despite the hammering that the GCC countries have taken.
20:11Okay.
20:12They'd want to stay.
20:12Will they be allowed to stay?
20:14Gaurav?
20:14Yes, because Iran also would, none of the Sudanese Muslim countries would want a strong Iran,
20:19a Shia Muslim country in control of the Strait of Hormuz.
20:22Because then Iran would be the most powerful country and it will extract its pound of flesh
20:27from all these Sunni Muslim countries and they don't want that.
20:30But the Sunni world is okay with a very powerful Israel.
20:33No, they would rather have America to play that balancing role.
20:37Because you know what Ambassador John Bolton told me just yesterday in that interview?
20:40He said, nothing is more dangerous than a wounded regime in power.
20:45So they will not let a wounded regime in power.
20:48Gita, I'm trying not to laugh because I have breaking news in front of me.
20:53Reuters, the U.S. may now remove sanctions from Iranian oil that is stranded on tankers
20:59to help global prices.
21:00So where did this start and where is this ending?
21:04We'll end with that.
21:05The news of America removing sanctions on Iranian oil.
21:11Irony just died a million deaths over here.
21:14With that, we close this show of Democratic Newsroom.
21:17Thank you so much gentlemen for behaving yourselves and not having me use the gavel even once.
21:22Please do.
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