- 17 minutes ago
As the West Asia conflict intensifies, US President Donald Trump signals a conditional ceasefire with Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz while simultaneously issuing threats.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today, your primetime destination.
00:04News, newsmakers, talking points. Wednesday night, we'll tell you what's making the news without the noise.
00:12First, of course, our big talking point. Is Donald Trump now exploring an exit option out of Iran?
00:20Big statement expected from the US President tomorrow morning.
00:24We'll have top analysts telling us what could happen.
00:27Also among my special guests, Chief Economic Advisor, former Chief Economic Advisor, Arvind Subramaniam, on the costs of war.
00:35What will the war cost India and the world economy?
00:39And why are Indian bloc allies at war in Kerala?
00:43Among my guests, of course, is the Kerala Chief Minister, Pindrai Vijayan.
00:48So we've got plenty on the show as always.
00:52But first, let's take you to the nine headlines.
00:57In a market's softening of stand, Donald Trump says ready for ceasefire even if some demands are met, including reopening
01:08of the Strait of Hormuz.
01:10The Iranian Foreign Minister, Araqchi, makes it clear only Iran and Oman will decide on Hormuz.
01:19NATO on the brink of collapse amidst the West Asia war.
01:24Donald Trump now says seriously considering pulling the US out of the Western alliance.
01:30UK Prime Minister Starmer asserts this is not our war and strong ties with EU more important.
01:37In a blowback from the war, government hikes commercial LPG prices by Rs. 195 per 19kg cylinder amidst energy crisis.
01:47Jet fuel prices raised by about 8.5% for domestic airlines amidst the ongoing West Asia conflict.
01:55A grenade blast outside the Punjab BJP office in Chandigarh video shows man hurling a blue grenade.
02:03Sources say blue grenades mostly come from Pakistan via drones.
02:07A Khalistani terrorist claims responsibility for the blast.
02:12Prime Minister Modi campaigns in poll-bound Assam vows to bring a uniform civil code in the state, accuses Congress
02:18of shielding infiltrators.
02:20The Congress hits back, claims Prime Minister polarizing once again to divert from real issues.
02:28Amidst the heated poll campaign in Tamil Nadu, Deputy Chief Minister Uday Nidhi Stalin speaks to India today,
02:34says this is a direct battle this time between Delhi and Tamil Nadu.
02:42Amidst political controversy, government drops the new FCRA bill that was proving to be contentious.
02:49Opposition parties and Christian organizations strongly objected to the bill.
02:54A bishop had even written to the Prime Minister.
03:00Lok Sabha passes a key bill declaring Amravati as the sole capital of Andhra Pradesh.
03:05YSRCP rains fire, calls it a hopeless move by the government.
03:13And more than half a century after mankind's last visit to the moon,
03:17four astronauts are set to begin their lunar mission.
03:20NASA's Artemis mission set to blast off early on Thursday morning.
03:37But let's turn to the big breaking story at the moment.
03:40Donald Trump once again making all the news and sending out mixed messages yet again on the war in West
03:47Asia.
03:47In a seeming softening of stand, Donald Trump has said,
03:51I am ready for a ceasefire if Hormuz is reopened.
03:55At the same time, he has warned that if Hormuz is not reopened,
03:59Iran will be obliterated and sent back to the Stone Ages.
04:03Sources now saying that Vance, his deputy, the vice president,
04:09has been asked to convey this message to intermediaries that the U.S. is ready for a ceasefire.
04:17But, with a big but, only if Iran agrees to open the Strait of Hormuz
04:21amongst other demands that are being made.
04:25All eyes now will be on Donald Trump's speech.
04:28That's going to be at 6.30 a.m. tomorrow.
04:32Araqchi, the Iranian foreign minister, saying only Iran and Oman will be allowed to decide
04:41on the key question of opening up of the Strait of Hormuz.
04:47Big questions right at the very top.
04:49Is Donald Trump now looking to explore an exit option when he says the war could end in two to
04:54three weeks?
04:55What will it really take now to end the war?
04:57Will Israel agree to a truce?
05:00And what happens to NATO, which is now again in Donald Trump's crosshairs?
05:04My special guest joining me now at the very top of the show is Steve Erlinger.
05:09He's the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe, the New York Times.
05:13Appreciate, Steve, you joining us on the show tonight.
05:16Thank you very much.
05:17I want to ask you, how do you read these mixed messages coming from the White House?
05:22At one level, Donald Trump is saying I'm open to a ceasefire,
05:25at the same time threatening to obliterate Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.
05:31What do you make out of it?
05:33Well, this is typical Trump, I have to say.
05:35It depends on how he's feeling, but he likes to negotiate with a lot of threats
05:41and then looks for a deal.
05:44So he's the sort of person who will throw a grenade into a pool of water and see what happens
05:50and then work from what results.
05:53So my sense, my reporting is that Trump really wants to get out of this war.
05:59He's had enough of it.
06:00It's costing too much money.
06:02It's costing too much in terms of energy prices, oil markets, allied confidence.
06:08So he's looking for a ceasefire.
06:10I'm not sure Iran wants to give him a ceasefire.
06:13I think Iran feels that in some weird way it has the upper hand with the Strait of Hormuz.
06:20Now, if they can negotiate somehow a deal on Hormuz,
06:26sort of the way Turkey did on the Dardanelles,
06:31that would allow Iran to make some money from transiting,
06:36then maybe Iran would agree to a ceasefire.
06:39But I'm not sure that it will.
06:45So you're making an important point.
06:47You seem to suggest that you get a sense that Donald Trump wants an early ceasefire.
06:52Am I correct?
06:53That's your sense that he now wants a way out.
06:57But the Iranians, maybe the ones digging their heels in,
07:01is that what you're getting a sense of?
07:05Yes.
07:06Yes, very, very much so.
07:07Because the Iranians have found a pressure point that hurts for Trump.
07:13They think they can get some concessions out of the Americans too.
07:18And of course, the one crucial issue we haven't discussed,
07:21of course, I'm sure you and your listeners know what it is.
07:26It's the nuclear issue.
07:28It's the 440 kilos of near-weapons-grade uranium that Iran still has.
07:37And this war so far has done nothing to secure that uranium
07:43or to do a deal to take it out of Iran.
07:47And this was supposed to be one of the prime strategic aims of the American side of this war.
07:55So it feels a bit like Trump has gotten himself into a position
08:00where he is limiting his strategic aims now and shortening them
08:07so he can somehow declare that he's done the job sufficiently.
08:15You know, Stephen, you wrote an article,
08:18No Good Way Out, in the New York Times,
08:20where you outlined four main options available to the president
08:23one month into the war.
08:25Sending in ground forces,
08:27seizing Khark Island as a bargaining chip as part of that,
08:31declaring victory and withdrawing,
08:33negotiating a deal with what remains of the Iranian regime,
08:36or continuing sustained bombing until Iran capitulates or collapses.
08:40Based on what's happened in the last 48 hours,
08:44which of these four options is appearing more likely?
08:47The president is also going to address the American nation at 6.30 a.m. India time.
08:53So which of these four options is he more likely to look at?
08:56Well, it is very hard to know what Trump is actually going to say.
09:02But my sense is he is looking for a way out.
09:06If there is some way that he can negotiate an opening of the Strait of Hormuz,
09:12which of course was open before the war started,
09:15and some agreement on Iran's part to at least restore international inspection
09:22of all its nuclear program,
09:25then I think he would say,
09:27we've destroyed their navy,
09:30we've destroyed a lot of their ballistic missile production,
09:33we've knocked them back.
09:34If the nuclear thing is in control and the Hormuz is open,
09:39then we've done our job.
09:42And if we have to go back and bomb Iran again,
09:45we can do it later.
09:47I think that's where he's ending up.
09:49But again, with Donald Trump,
09:51it's very hard to know.
09:56What we are also seeing in the last 24 hours
09:59is a further rupturing of that alliance, Steve,
10:01between the European allies in NATO and the American president.
10:07Donald Trump even threatening that he could walk out of NATO after the war
10:11because the European allies haven't cooperated with him.
10:14Do you believe he's serious?
10:15Do we take Donald Trump seriously when he makes these comments?
10:20Well, I do take him seriously.
10:22I mean, this has been something he's talked about for decades, frankly.
10:26John Bolton, who was his national security advisor in his first term,
10:30said if Trump is re-elected,
10:33he would pull out of the NATO alliance.
10:36That hasn't happened yet.
10:40Rutta, the head of the alliance,
10:43the secretary general,
10:43has worked hard to keep Trump on side.
10:46The Europeans are spending more money.
10:47There are reasons why Trump should be happy with NATO.
10:53But what he doesn't understand is
10:55NATO is a transatlantic alliance.
10:58It has nothing to do with the Middle East.
11:00It has refused the countries of NATO.
11:03It's not about NATO.
11:04The countries of NATO have refused to enter
11:07a war that they consider a war of choice,
11:12not a defensive war,
11:13a war that many in Europe consider illegal,
11:17and they don't want to get involved with it.
11:21Now, they have been useful,
11:23all these bases in Europe,
11:26useful in refueling American planes,
11:28and they've tried to draw a distinction
11:31between helping with the defense
11:34of the Strait of Hormuz
11:37and offensive capabilities.
11:40And this has frustrated Trump no end.
11:43He thinks they're just not there for him.
11:46He says they should open the Strait of Hormuz.
11:48I don't know how,
11:49even though the U.S. Navy isn't doing it.
11:52So he lives in his own world, frankly,
11:57and it's very frustrating for his allies
12:00who really try to keep him sweet.
12:02And sometimes he just,
12:04I think he's taking out his frustrations
12:06about the war on European allies.
12:09So it is possible.
12:11I don't think he will pull out of NATO.
12:14He's threatened to do it many, many times.
12:16And if he even says he will,
12:20it would take an act of Congress.
12:22And I don't think Congress would support it.
12:24And it would take another year.
12:26But the big question is,
12:29does Trump's words make Article 5,
12:33the commitment to collective defense, hollow?
12:37And I think people have felt
12:39it's been pretty hollow for a long time now.
12:47My final question and a quick answer there, Steve,
12:50to this one.
12:51Put on your forecaster's hat
12:53as someone who's tracked diplomacy over the years.
12:56Do you see an early end to the war now?
12:59Has anything happened in the last 48, 72 hours
13:01to suggest we could be seeing
13:03an earlier end to the war
13:05than predicted by many others?
13:08Yes, I do.
13:09I would give it another week.
13:11Now, I may be wrong,
13:12but I think Trump really wants to get out
13:15and will find some good reason
13:17to stop the American side of the war.
13:21And if he stops,
13:22I think Israel will have to stop also.
13:28Okay.
13:29I'm going to leave it there.
13:30Of course, as you said,
13:31predicting what Donald Trump does
13:32or does not do is extremely hazardous.
13:35But for joining me there
13:36and giving some sense of
13:37what those mixed messages
13:39that Donald Trump is sending out today
13:41really mean,
13:42appreciate your joining us.
13:43Steve A. Lunger of the New York Times,
13:45their chief diplomatic correspondent for Europe.
13:47Thank you very much
13:48for joining me on the show tonight.
13:50Now, remember,
13:51all of this is happening
13:53even as global oil prices are rising.
13:56And that's where the real focus
13:58may now shift
13:59because the world is experiencing a blowback.
14:02There are fears of recession.
14:03Inflation has set in
14:05in several parts of the world.
14:06Today, jet fuel prices
14:08briefly surged past
14:10rupees two lakhs,
14:11sparking fears
14:12of a wider economic ripple.
14:14The government has
14:15tried to intervene,
14:17bring some relief,
14:18but commercial LPG prices
14:20have also been hiked.
14:22The question, of course,
14:23is for how long
14:24can domestic flyers be shielded
14:26and what impact
14:27is this rising oil prices
14:29going to have
14:29on inflation and growth?
14:32That's what I'm going to discuss
14:33in a moment
14:33with the country's
14:34former chief economic advisor
14:36and one of the world's
14:37best economists,
14:38Arvind Subramaniam.
14:39But first,
14:40take a look at this report.
14:47The stage was set
14:48a month ago.
14:50But when the script
14:51rolled this morning,
14:53many hoped
14:53it was an April Fool's joke.
14:56A post on the Indian oil website
14:58at around quarter past seven
15:00left the country shocked.
15:03Jet fuel prices
15:04which had been held steady
15:05for the entire March
15:07despite crude oil prices
15:08shooting up
15:09had been jacked up
15:10by 115%
15:12to over the 2 lakh rupee level
15:14for the first time.
15:16There had been talk
15:17of a fuel shock
15:18for airlines
15:19with analysts
15:19emphasising
15:20the huge differential
15:21between global jet fuel prices
15:23and that in India,
15:25but only a few believed
15:27the government
15:27would take the plunge.
15:30Just a couple of hours later,
15:32there was a new post
15:33with prices slashed
15:34by more than a lakh rupees.
15:36There was also a clarification.
15:38While the new jet fuel prices
15:39were over 2 lakh rupees
15:41per kiloliter,
15:42domestic airlines
15:43would be charged
15:44a subsidised rate
15:45to ensure
15:45the air travellers
15:46were cushioned.
15:48The hiked rates
15:49would only be applicable
15:50on overseas flights
15:51as well as
15:52chartered,
15:53non-scheduled
15:53and ad-hoc
15:54domestic flights.
15:57Domestic airlines
15:59scheduled
15:59there was a partial increase
16:02but the non-scheduled
16:05flights
16:06airlines
16:06or international airlines
16:09there was a complete
16:11cost
16:12has been passed
16:13to the consumers.
16:15It is about 21
16:15or 20
16:16or 98
16:17per litre
16:19increase
16:19and if you
16:20look at the non-scheduled
16:23this is more than
16:25110 rupees.
16:27According to the ministry,
16:29the companies are losing
16:30more than 24 rupees
16:31a litre
16:32on patrol
16:33and a whopping
16:34105 rupees
16:35a litre
16:36on diesel.
16:37The only burden
16:39passed on to the
16:39aamadmi for now
16:40a fuel surcharge
16:42in flights,
16:43hiking commercial
16:44LPG cylinders
16:44and an increase
16:46in the prices
16:46of premium fuels.
16:47But this absorption
16:49capability of the
16:50government
16:50will be tested
16:51if the hostilities
16:52in West Asia
16:53do not end soon.
16:55Bureau Report
16:56Business Today TV
16:59Okay, let's tell you
17:01what the latest
17:02Oxford Economics
17:04Advisory Firm
17:05forecast is saying
17:06and this is really
17:07the critical question.
17:08If the Strait of Hormuz
17:10remains closed
17:11for six months,
17:12global oil supplies
17:14could drop
17:15by as much
17:15as 20 million
17:17barrels per day.
17:18Brent's crude
17:19will surge
17:20to around $190
17:22per barrel
17:23by August.
17:24Global inflation
17:25will hit 7.7%
17:27close to the
17:282022 peak
17:30and the global
17:31growth rate
17:32for 2026
17:33will slow down
17:34to 1.4%.
17:36US and most
17:38advanced economies
17:39will slide
17:39into recession.
17:41China's growth
17:42will fall
17:42to 3.4%.
17:44Gulf states
17:45GDP down
17:46over 8%
17:47and India
17:48too of course
17:49will face
17:50a tough
17:51economic situation.
17:53Just how tough?
17:54What should we be
17:55bracing for
17:56if this war
17:57actually lasts
17:58longer
17:58or the
17:59Strait of Hormuz
18:00remains shut?
18:01Joining me now
18:02very special guest
18:03former Chief
18:03Economic Advisor
18:04Dr. Arvind Subramaniam
18:06Senior Fellow
18:07at the Peterson
18:07Institute
18:08for International
18:09Economics
18:09is joining me.
18:11Appreciate
18:11Dr. Subramaniam
18:12you joining us.
18:13One month
18:14into this
18:15US-Iran war
18:16Strait of Hormuz
18:17disruption
18:17already pushing
18:19crude oil
18:19beyond $112
18:21per barrel.
18:22India imports
18:23about 85%
18:24of its oil.
18:26Your estimate
18:27of the total
18:28direct and
18:28indirect economic
18:29cost that India
18:31may have to face
18:32as a result
18:32of this conflict?
18:35Hi Razip
18:36thanks for having me.
18:38Razip
18:38I think those
18:40are actually
18:40quite difficult
18:41to estimate
18:42because there's
18:43a lot of
18:44uncertainty
18:45around how
18:46long it's
18:47going to last
18:47how high
18:49the oil price
18:49is going to
18:50go and so
18:51on.
18:52But I think
18:53remember for
18:53India it is
18:55as much
18:56natural gas
18:57and fertilizer
18:58that are going
19:00to be key
19:01determinants of
19:02what happens
19:03as oil
19:04itself.
19:05What is
19:06clear is that
19:07like in the
19:08rest of the
19:09world
19:10this is a
19:11stagflationary
19:12shock.
19:13Prices will
19:14go higher
19:15and GDP
19:17will come
19:17down.
19:18The only
19:19question is
19:19what are
19:20the magnitudes
19:20and that's
19:21going to depend
19:22upon how
19:22long this
19:23happens.
19:24I wouldn't
19:25be surprised
19:26if on
19:28certain
19:28reasonable
19:29assumptions
19:29our GDP
19:30growth is
19:31shaved by
19:32more than
19:33one percentage
19:33point
19:34maybe more
19:35and prices
19:36also rise
19:37we could
19:38see inflation
19:39higher by
19:39one to
19:40one and a
19:41half percentage
19:41points quite
19:42easily.
19:46So you're
19:47saying the
19:48threat of
19:49stagflation is
19:50real?
19:50The possibility
19:51of stagflation
19:54sooner rather
19:55than later?
19:57Exactly.
19:58This is a
19:58stagflationary
19:59shock of
20:00pretty large
20:02magnitude.
20:03I mean and
20:04remember it's
20:05not only oil
20:06but for
20:07India natural
20:08gas and
20:09fertilizer as
20:12well.
20:12Already you can
20:13see in India
20:14you know
20:14restaurants are
20:15closing down.
20:16If anything
20:17the natural
20:18gas shortage
20:19is being felt
20:20more acutely
20:21and more broadly
20:22than even the
20:23oil price shock.
20:25So you know
20:25in that sense
20:27you know you
20:27can already see
20:28the GDP or
20:30the you know
20:30the stag part
20:32of the
20:32stagflationary
20:33term the
20:34stagnation part
20:35is already
20:36being felt
20:37in terms of
20:39restaurants
20:39closing down
20:40you know
20:40households having
20:41less natural
20:42gas and that's
20:44already being
20:44felt.
20:45So the only
20:46thing is how
20:46much and how
20:47do we respond
20:48to the shock.
20:53I'll come
20:54back to the
20:54India question
20:55Dr. Subramanam
20:57again but let's
20:58for a moment
20:58look at the
20:59world itself.
21:00There's now
21:01the possibility
21:02of the US
21:02entering recession
21:03China slowing
21:05down.
21:05Do you
21:06therefore believe
21:06that we are
21:07it's not just
21:08about India at
21:09the moment
21:09global economy
21:10is much more
21:11interlinked.
21:11We really
21:12are in a
21:14sense part
21:15of a ever
21:16widening arc
21:18of uncertainty
21:18and possibly
21:20even the
21:21R word
21:21recession in
21:23several parts
21:23of the world.
21:24Would that be
21:24right?
21:26Absolutely
21:26right.
21:27I think
21:28Rajdeep the
21:29one way to
21:30think about
21:30this is that
21:31yes you
21:33know globally
21:34we are much
21:35more interdependent.
21:36This is a
21:37global
21:37statflationary
21:38shock and
21:40of course how
21:41big it depends
21:42upon the
21:43duration and
21:44so on.
21:45But remember
21:45the big
21:46difference now
21:47compared to
21:48before is
21:50that at the
21:51global level
21:52if you look at
21:52the major
21:53economies the
21:54United States
21:55Europe
21:55China they
21:57also have
21:58less policy
22:00firepower
22:01compared to
22:02the past.
22:04So for
22:04example you
22:05know in a
22:05situation like
22:06this you may
22:07want to inject
22:08more fiscal
22:09policy impetus
22:12for example
22:12right but then
22:13debt levels are
22:14so high that
22:15you know those
22:16are no longer
22:17as feasible
22:18options as
22:19they used to
22:20be in the
22:21past so it's
22:22not just that
22:23the shock is
22:24very significant
22:24but also the
22:27ability of policy
22:28to respond
22:29globally is
22:30much more
22:31limited and
22:32that's very
22:33important.
22:37You know you
22:38made an important
22:39point at the
22:40very outset that
22:41it's not just
22:41about oil prices
22:42there is the
22:43danger of food
22:44inflation which
22:45always hits the
22:46poorest the most
22:47there is
22:47fertilizer prices
22:49set to possibly
22:50rise further so
22:51that could
22:52affect farmers
22:54we've already
22:55seen jet fuel
22:56prices on the
22:56rise airline
22:58prices also now
22:59expected to surge
23:00so there's no
23:01segment of economy
23:02in a way that's
23:03going to be
23:03insulated if
23:05this war carries
23:06on for a month
23:07and longer am I
23:10that's the fear
23:11isn't it there
23:11are even those
23:12who are saying
23:12are equating it
23:14to what happened
23:14during COVID
23:15that that was a
23:17lockdown that
23:18was a and now
23:19we've got this
23:20major supply side
23:21disruption which
23:22could affect every
23:23sector of the
23:24economy.
23:26Yeah in the
23:28short run what
23:28has happened of
23:29course is that
23:30the government
23:31has limited some
23:33of the price
23:34increases right
23:35it's cut excise
23:36taxes so for
23:37example on
23:38petroleum it
23:39has not allowed
23:40these to go
23:41through to
23:41consumers for
23:42example and
23:44similarly it
23:45might do that
23:46for a
23:47fertilizer as
23:47well you know
23:48fertilizer prices
23:49remember are
23:51subsidized quite
23:52heavily so in
23:53the short run I
23:55think the
23:56government is
23:56trying to absorb
23:57the shock on
23:58its own balance
23:59sheet and
24:01limiting these
24:01price increases
24:02but remember
24:04there are no
24:05good options in
24:06this they're just
24:07less bad and
24:08more bad
24:09options so in
24:10the short run
24:10the government is
24:11taking the hit on
24:12the budget and
24:13that's getting
24:14reflected in
24:15government yields
24:16going up which
24:17is going to be
24:17problematic but I
24:19think over the
24:19longer run if
24:20these shocks
24:21persist the
24:23government will
24:23have no option
24:24but to pass on
24:26some of these
24:27price increases
24:28even in
24:29petroleum which
24:30are now fixed
24:31and in other
24:32commodities you
24:33know I think
24:34the broad
24:35attitude is that
24:36you know jet
24:37fuel because
24:38consumers are
24:39richer you allow
24:40them to go
24:41through but
24:42wherever there
24:42are poorer
24:43and vulnerable
24:43sections you
24:44want to limit
24:45the price
24:45increase and
24:46the government
24:47takes the hit
24:47on its budget
24:48but that I
24:50think equation
24:50cannot is not
24:52sustainable for
24:53too long at
24:54some point these
24:55price increases
24:55will have to be
24:56passed through
24:57at least to
24:58some extent
25:02because if I
25:03put to our
25:04viewers five
25:04major impacts
25:05on India after
25:06one month of
25:07this West Asia
25:08war on the
25:08economy LPG
25:09shortages some
25:11artificial but
25:12others real on
25:12the ground
25:13rupee at record
25:14lows there's been
25:15a major stock
25:16market correction
25:17there's a
25:18manufacturing slow
25:20down in specific
25:21sectors and
25:22that the GDP
25:23growth forecasts
25:24are also declining
25:24all of which
25:25leads to a very
25:26bleak picture are
25:28we looking at
25:29the glass half
25:30empty is there
25:31any ray of
25:31hope amidst
25:32all these dire
25:34forecasts that
25:35are being put in
25:35there Dr.
25:36Subramaniam
25:37yes
25:39Rajni before I
25:41answer that
25:41question can we
25:43talk about the
25:44rupee for a
25:45second you know
25:45it's important
25:46point right the
25:47rupee has
25:48declined and
25:49it's you know
25:49creating some
25:50turmoil in
25:51foreign exchange
25:52markets but I
25:54think I think
25:55viewers should
25:56know
25:56that since the
25:58war began the
26:00rupee is not
26:01the worst
26:02performing currency
26:03amongst peers
26:04you know because
26:06all countries have
26:06been affected
26:07Philippines
26:08Bangladesh
26:08Vietnam
26:09you know Korea
26:11Taiwan Japan
26:12they've all been
26:13affected and
26:14India has been
26:15somewhat middle of
26:16the pack in
26:16terms of how
26:17much the rupee
26:18has gone down
26:19but what is
26:21important and
26:22it's really a
26:23lesson for
26:24policy makers in
26:25India is the
26:27rupee was the
26:28worst performing
26:29currency in the
26:30one year before
26:32the war began
26:33so the question
26:34is why why did
26:36that happen and
26:38what does it say
26:39about what
26:40policy makers do
26:41now so if I
26:42would say there's
26:43a ray of hope
26:44in this it is a
26:46wake-up call to
26:48build up the
26:49resilience of the
26:50economy and to
26:52undertake the
26:53reforms that
26:54will give us
26:55long-term
26:56resilience remember
26:57it's a bit like
26:58the Trump shock
26:59you know when
27:00Trump hit us with
27:01tariffs I think
27:02the government to
27:03its credit did
27:04galvanize and
27:05undertake reforms
27:06so I think this
27:07should be viewed as
27:08a real wake-up call
27:10to build up long-term
27:11resilience and to
27:13do the things that
27:13will contribute to
27:14that
27:18give me an example
27:19give me an example
27:20that you believe that
27:21should be done right
27:22at once if you were
27:23advising the government
27:24what would you advise
27:26them to do right
27:27away
27:28no I
27:30Rajiv remember in all
27:31these things there are
27:32things you need to do
27:33right away and there
27:34are things that are
27:35arguably more important
27:37that you do need to
27:38do over the medium
27:39term right I mean
27:41right away I think
27:42what the government
27:44needs to do is try
27:45and find globally
27:47every possible
27:48source of supply
27:49for fertilizer oil
27:51and natural gas
27:52you know I think
27:54you know we should
27:55go all out hunting
27:56everywhere to secure
27:58these supplies as
28:00quickly and as
28:01cheaply as possible
28:02so that's one I
28:05think that you know
28:06the question arises
28:08is also why did
28:10China have a bigger
28:12stockpile of petroleum
28:13than we did so I
28:15think in the you
28:16know short to medium
28:17term we also need to
28:19focus on do we need
28:21to build up buffers
28:22of these very
28:24important commodities
28:25like gas fertilizer
28:27and oil now the
28:30last thing I will say
28:33Rajiv which is
28:34probably see the most
28:36important is long-term
28:38resilience what do we
28:39need to do that's I
28:41think the key point and
28:42I think we need to
28:44reduce our dependence on
28:46fossil fuels in the long
28:48run which means building
28:50up our electricity and
28:52renewable sector in the
28:54long run that is the way to
28:56go for the medium term
29:01can I though ask you are
29:04India's current foreign
29:05exchange reserve dr
29:06superman sufficient to
29:08ensure economic stability
29:09help achieve projected
29:11growth rate target should
29:12that again be a cause of
29:14concern if this war gets
29:15prolonged I think no at
29:18this stage not really
29:19because I think foreign
29:22reserves are there just to
29:25limit excessive volatility
29:26and very sharp and
29:28precipitous declines I
29:30mean a combination of
29:32allowing the rupee to find
29:34its true level and you
29:36know intervening only to
29:37control volatility is the
29:39way forward and for that
29:40we have ample reserves I
29:42think reserve shortage today
29:44is not a major issue
29:50but do you do you fear that
29:52if the US goes into
29:54recession as there is some
29:56as some observers suggest
29:58India will also suffer a
30:00blowback that if the US
30:02goes through a recession
30:03China slows down
30:05invariably our economy is
30:07also going to slow down and
30:08therefore those projections
30:10for 25 26 could go very
30:12or I or 26 27 could go very
30:14or I yeah absolutely I I
30:17think that if the world
30:18economy goes into recession I
30:20think we will be affected
30:21you know to quote John
30:22Dunn no man is an island
30:24entire of itself in this
30:26interdependent global
30:27economy and that's you know
30:28true in spades for India
30:30and increasingly so however
30:32Rati thinking about the
30:36the light you know the some
30:38of the light at the end of
30:39the tunnel I mean remember
30:40if the exchange rate goes
30:42down our exports will become
30:45more competitive so there
30:46are you know there are kind
30:48of responses that can help
30:50us adjust to this and we
30:52need to make the right
30:53policy choices so that we
30:55can respond to what is
30:57inevitably going to be a
30:59difficult situation not just
31:01for India but for all
31:02countries around the world
31:07just as a final question
31:09because I I was struck by
31:11when you said stagflation the
31:13possibility of a slowing
31:14growth and inflation picking
31:16up one of the successes of
31:17the Modi government is seen
31:19that they've been able to
31:20control inflation over the
31:21last decade could this be a
31:23situation which is an
31:24uncontrollable if this war
31:27persists the government will
31:29invariably be facing a
31:31challenge that they haven't so
31:32far which is inflation and
31:34which is you know in a
31:35country like India can also
31:37be politically very very
31:39difficult to manage so is
31:41that going to be managing
31:42inflation the first target
31:44let's say there's an RBI
31:45monetary policy coming next
31:47week as well that managing
31:48inflation now will be at the
31:50top of the mind
31:54all central bankers in the
31:55world are struggling with
31:57this because you know you
31:59raise interest rates to
32:00contain inflation that's
32:01going to take a toll on
32:03economic activity this is
32:05just a reality of
32:06stagflation but so that's
32:09why I think policymakers
32:10will see so for example if
32:13we limit price increases and
32:15take the hit on government
32:17budgets in the short run the
32:19inflationary shock will be
32:20muted so I think the
32:22government and the central
32:23bank will have to work
32:24together to you know cope
32:27with this problem I think
32:28in the short run a few
32:30interest rate increases are
32:32probably inevitable given
32:34the size of the shock but a
32:37lot will depend upon how the
32:38how New Delhi and Mumbai
32:41coordinate policy together
32:48Dr. Subramaniam we're going to
32:49leave it there for now you've
32:51given us a sense of some of the
32:52warnings some of the
32:53challenges and possibly as you
32:55said some of the opportunities
32:57that might lie ahead in this
33:00period of grave shock and the
33:02uncertainty of course of when the
33:04war will end but for joining me
33:06today thank you very much Dr.
33:08Arvind Subramaniam
33:09thanks Rajiv I want to turn from
33:15there to of course the war once
33:17again because to give you updates
33:19the top five developments let's get
33:21you up to speed in a war where
33:23every day is bringing new twists
33:25and turns the Iranian army now
33:27claims that there are fresh drone
33:29and missile strikes near the US
33:31fresh fifth fleet base in Bahrain
33:33under what they're calling operation
33:35troop promise for targeting American
33:37troops at the same time Iran's army
33:40says it has hit US aerial assets
33:43including AWACS and refueling
33:45aircraft and struck radar and
33:48electronic warfare sites in the UAE
33:50using long-range drones the US is
33:54reinforcing its military postures
33:56deploying the aircraft carrier USS
33:58George H.W. Bush along with
34:00multiple destroyers with over 6,000
34:02personnel aboard this signals
34:04readiness for a sustained or
34:06escalated operation in the region the
34:08conflict is also spilt across
34:10borders tankers near Doha have been
34:12struck fuel tanks in Kuwait hit by
34:15drones fires reported in Bahrain
34:17multi-country incidents pointing to
34:19the widening theater of the conflict
34:22Donald Trump meanwhile has shifted
34:24pressure onto global allies saying
34:26it's up to them to secure the state of
34:28Hormuz Trump Trump saying as we said
34:29earlier US considering exiting NATO
34:32calling the alliance a paper tiger
34:35United Kingdom's Prime Minister
34:37Keir Starmer making it clear and
34:39saying I quote this is not our war
34:41France Italy and Spain have denied
34:44military support even airspace access
34:47NATO unity appearing strained with
34:50many allies prioritizing national
34:52interests over collective action one of
34:55the big questions of course what is
34:57happening within Iran very little
34:59actually comes out given the various
35:02censorship rules that are in place and
35:04the internet access bans and how are
35:07Iranians living outside Iran looking at
35:10the situation there my special guest at
35:12the moment is Azadeh Moavini she's
35:15associate professor New York University
35:17director global journalism there thank you
35:20very much Azadeh for joining us there from
35:24New York you are an Iranian American but I
35:29want to understand from you how are you
35:30from your point in New York looking at
35:34what's happening within your country
35:36most Iranian Americans or Iranians
35:38outside are seen to be anti-regime but do
35:41you see this regime collapsing as a
35:43result of these constant bombardment or
35:46actually only becoming stronger given the
35:48statements that are coming out of Tehran it's
35:52such an important question and thank you
35:54for having me the regime certainly looks
35:57like it is being very adept at playing a
36:01weak hand well it has maintained its
36:04institutional cohesiveness it has arrived
36:08at a strategy an asymmetric strategy to
36:10prosecute this war that it has followed
36:12consistently from the beginning it has
36:15managed more or less to maintain internal
36:17order inside the country so the regime
36:20itself doesn't look like it is in any
36:22danger of of being toppled or seriously
36:25destabilized from within it has found
36:28leverage through being able to to shot down
36:31the Strait of Hormuz but the question of
36:33whether it is strong I think is is a longer
36:36term question when this war ends and one day
36:39it will end through a ceasefire or through
36:41some sort of mechanism you know the Iranian
36:44regime faces serious serious problems it faces a
36:48society and a population that it is that it has
36:51ruptured with that it massacred in January it
36:53faces a collapse currency a crisis of
36:57legitimacy so so strong in the moment in
37:00the battleground of war and in the theater of
37:02war yes but in the day after perhaps not so
37:06strong at all
37:10but you know when you say that in the long
37:13term the Iranian regime faces a threat but in
37:17the short term becomes stronger today Donald
37:21Trump interestingly said there's a new regime in
37:23place in in Iran which is more sensible more
37:27accommodating is he again bluffing in your
37:30view actually what we are seeing is the rise rise
37:34of more hardline possibly radical elements who
37:37are determined in a way to prosecute this war
37:39against the United States and sort of create a
37:42new form of Iranian nationalism well we're
37:46certainly seeing the country run right now on
37:48a war footing the military leaders the IRGC I
37:52mean it is ostensibly run by the supreme national
37:55security council but the military heavyweights
37:58certainly have the upper hand in prosecuting the
38:01war and in transitioning us into the phase that
38:03comes that comes later whether or not there is a
38:07sort of hardline resurgence in the country after
38:10the death of Ayatollah Khamenei I think determines to
38:14be seen and may partly be determined by how the war
38:17ends and what happens after I mean certainly the regime
38:20now has greater incentive than ever to build a nuclear
38:24weapon it's capacity to do that without being
38:27detected is is of course very very limited
38:30uh but the but the voices inside the system that we're
38:34pushing for that under the the long years of the rule
38:37of Ayatollah Khamenei as a strategic deterrent for Iran that
38:41would have prevented exactly a war like this will
38:44certainly have much more weight and reason to put that
38:48forth so I think that is something that we will be will be
38:51looking at Iran to reconsider its its its nuclear
38:55security posture
38:59and and and presumably of course there's always the threat
39:02uh if the longer this war persists of civil war uh breaking out within the
39:07country particularly also because there seems to be a political vacuum
39:11uh the the Shah of Iran and the royalists seem to have
39:14very little support or or the putative Shah who would love to uh take over who makes
39:21comments sitting in America uh it almost seems as as if within Iran
39:26uh do you believe public opinion is strongly divided on on on what would
39:31replace this regime if at all if Donald Trump
39:34originally or Netanyahu were pushing for regime change
39:37where is that regime change if at all
39:41it's a very very important question um it is certainly true that Reza Pahlavi the
39:46son of the last Shah does not is is the most popular opposition leader both
39:52abroad and inside Iran at the moment uh that is a reflection of of how events
39:58unfolded in January and of course a much longer story of how
40:01the the system inside Iran has shut down uh any dissent
40:05any room for progress thereby making the diaspora opposition much more
40:09prominent um is the country uh so though uh to backtrack
40:14although he doesn't have an organized and serious network Reza Pahlavi inside
40:19the country I think we shouldn't discount the number of Iranians who have
40:24been prepared to get behind him as someone who can be a transitional figure
40:28that may be able to lead at some point Iran out of its current impasse that
40:33doesn't mean that those Iranians are monarchists or that they want to
40:37replace this system with a constitutional monarchy or a parliamentary one
40:41it is that they see him as a representative of
40:44secularism social freedoms democracy openness to the world
40:48and believe that in the absence of any other leading figure
40:52he may perhaps be able to lead that transition at which point then
40:55Iranians can be able to consider what sort of system they really want and I
41:00think the vast majority of Iranians although divided about the war itself
41:04and divided about what should come next are certainly in agreement that they want
41:08this system to be changed entirely and that is how Reza Pahlavi despite his
41:14lack of ground game has developed the importance and the
41:17salience that he has in this moment
41:22just a quick answer Azadeh Mohamini to my final question
41:26what explains the resilience that Iran is showing where is that coming from
41:33it is years and years of long preparation for exactly this day we see that the
41:39Islamic Republic built a deep state there are layers within each institution and
41:45there are so many institutions within the military judiciary security armed
41:50forces revolutionary guards it is a deeply decentralized deeply layered regime
41:55that has prepared for this day with a deep state that can take over that is
42:00why we are seeing it cohesive and able to manage as I said a very poor hand
42:10Azadeh Mohamini for giving us a sense of what is what are the why Iran has proven to be such
42:17a tough
42:18nut or tough adversary to the United States in this war appreciate you joining me here on the news today
42:26uh remember the costs of war is a series that we've been running and I want to turn
42:31to a story that's coming from Madhya Pradesh today where farmers are stuck with piles of harvested wheat
42:38as procurement delays are deepening triggered not by local failures alone but by this global supply shock
42:45as a result an entire system has come to a halt because of a shortage of polypropylene storage bags raising
42:54costs
42:54delaying payments putting livelihoods at risk this is the face of the costs of war take a look
43:03wow
43:04whoa
43:12harvested grain piling up
43:17these images are from sahur and madhya pradesh known for its prized sharbati wheat
43:23farmers here have been kept waiting by the government which has delayed procurement
43:30Wheat procurement at minimum support price was set for March 16th, which got pushed to April 1st and is now
43:36further postponed to the 10th of April.
43:39The reason, shortage of high-density polypropylene or HDPP bags.
44:06The shortage is acute. The war in West Asia has disrupted the production of polypropylene bags.
44:19The government needs 15.6 crore polypropylene bags but currently has only 5.6 crore.
44:27The government sources have said that at present around 50 lakh PP bags are available in the state.
44:34But the amount of wheat the MP government may procure, it will require more than 2 crore bags.
44:41But because of the US-Israel and Iran war, the manufacturing of these PP bags has stopped and it created
44:49a shortage in Madhya Pradesh.
44:51And because of this shortage, now government is looking for an alternative as jute bags.
45:00The shortage has triggered a ripple effect across the wheat supply chain.
45:22This year, nearly 19 lakh farmers in Madhya Pradesh have registered to sell over 78 lakh metric tons of wheat
45:29at an MSP of 2,585 rupees per quintal, along with a 40 rupee bonus.
45:35But the shadow of West Asia's war looms large, delaying procurement and threatening livelihoods.
45:41With Ravish Pal Singh, Bureau Report, India Today.
45:49Let's turn to today's election special, which comes from Kerala, once known as Kerala.
45:54That's where I am at the moment.
45:56We've been travelling the state for elections on my plate.
45:59And we've spotted one battle within a battle.
46:02Congress versus left may be allies of the India Alliance in Delhi, but they are at loggerheads here in Kerala.
46:09And Rahul Gandhi is taking on the Chief Minister, Pindrai Vijayan, who's now hitting back.
46:15I spoke to all the principal players.
46:17Listen in to what they have to say.
46:19Each of them claims the other is the B-team of the BJP.
46:25Watch.
46:42Donald Trump controls Mr. Modi.
46:44Mr. Modi controls the Chief Minister of Kerala.
46:47I want to ask you a simple question.
46:50In every single speech, Narendra Modi talks about religion, talks about temples, talks about Hinduism.
47:00He sells himself as a protector of Hinduism.
47:04The LDF government, LDF leaders stole gold from Sabrimala.
47:11How come the protector of Hinduism comes to Kerala and does not say this?
47:15How come Narendra Modi did not say the LDF has stolen from the Sabrimala temple, from Ayappa?
47:23Because Narendra Modi wants a LDF government in Kerala.
47:26Everybody knows anybody who stands up against Narendra Modi is attacked.
47:36Why is the Chief Minister of Kerala not being attacked?
47:41Why has he been not interrogated?
47:45Why are there no cases against him?
47:49Why are his children not questioned?
47:52Because they are partners.
47:57You ask any, you ask any LDF worker and he will tell you that the LDF is not a left
48:03government.
48:03It is a corporate government.
48:05It is a Adani government.
48:07It is a Ambani government.
48:08And the BJP knows that the left can never challenge them in India.
48:13Mr. Venugopal, Rahul Gandhi has launched a stinging attack on both the left and the BJP.
48:18He is saying that there is collusion between left and BJP.
48:21He is saying that the left and BJP are colluding with each other.
48:26That is why yesterday the Prime Minister did not mention anything about the temple theft.
48:32You are saying Prime Minister is coming to Kerala and not attacking the BJP.
48:35CPM.
48:36And not attacking the CPM.
48:38But the point is, CPM is your ally, India ally in the center.
48:41No, no, Kerala actually, Kerala's CPM is entirely different.
48:44Kerala's CPM, you can see that.
48:46This is not a Labour Party.
48:47This is not a Socialist Party.
48:49This is not a Communist Party.
48:50This is now become the Corporate Party.
48:52Basically, complete interest of the corporates.
48:54They are protecting.
48:55So who is the one, in your view, who is the real fight against in Kerala?
49:02Is it the left?
49:03Or are you saying that the left and the BJP have come together?
49:06Because Pindrae...
49:06The fight is against the left.
49:08Congress and the left are fighting each other.
49:10QDF and LDF are fighting each other.
49:12Sir, Pindrae Vijayan says Congress is the B-team of the left.
49:16He's went public and said that.
49:18India, people of Kerala is joking by hearing that statement.
49:21People know about that, how Rahul Gandhi is fighting against Modi.
49:24Every Keralist know about it.
49:26Then Pindrae Vijayan is telling Congress and Rahul Gandhi is the agent of BJP.
49:30Who is going to believe, Rajivji?
49:32Who is going to believe?
49:56Very interestingly, Congress is going around Kerala.
49:59Particularly Rahul Gandhi is saying that you are the B-team of the BJP.
50:04That Pindrae Vijayan has some deal with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
50:08What will you tell Rahul Gandhi when he says Pindrae Vijayan has a deal with Narendra Modi?
50:12That's what Rahul Gandhi is saying.
50:16Rahul Gandhi is doing a lot.
50:18Rahul Gandhi has man's seat.
50:20Now they have a congress in Delhi.
50:24They have money.
50:26They have money.
50:28They have money when he gets to Kajariwal.
50:31They have money.
50:33They have money when he comes to Kajariwal.
50:35He has a Najan.
50:55Because you are in alliance, India Alliance in Delhi is together, left-end Congress, but in Kerala you are fighting
51:03with each other.
51:04I mean, voters will be wondering what kind of politics this is.
51:08That is not a problem.
51:11At the beginning of the day, there is no reason for BJP.
51:16That BJP is not going to be in Congress.
51:20The Congress is very complicated.
51:22That is why it is in Haryani, Delhi, Bihar, and other issues.
51:28It is a very important thing to do with BJP.
51:30It is a very important thing to do in Congress.
51:33It is a very serious charge that Congress leaders or your opponents make is of corruption, Sabri Mala gold theft
51:48case.
51:51Saying Pinrai Vijayan's government allowed the Sabri Mala gold theft case to take place during his term in power.
52:19Kerala is the least corrupt state.
52:38As you saw, we will have all the lead players in this battle for Kerala in our elections on my
52:45plate special.
52:46we are back again with that friday night 8 55 pm don't miss that there's plenty to watch as always
52:54on the show the south signs sounds and flavors of kerala in election season let me leave you there
53:04we're on our special show thanks for watching stay well stay safe jahin namaskaram as they
53:11would say in this part of the world bye for now
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