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US President Donald Trump has extended the pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure by ten days, until April 6, following what he claims was a request from Tehran.
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00:02Good evening, you're watching India First. I'm Gaurav Savant. It is day 28 of the conflict in
00:08West Asia and the apprehension is that this conflict is all set to intensify. The United
00:14States is talking about putting more boots on ground. Iran now is recruiting 12-year-old boys
00:22as boy soldiers to defend their country. By all accounts, this war is set to intensify
00:30and the repercussions are being felt almost across the world. The impact on India is something
00:37we'll talk about right now and there's a very important meeting that's currently on between
00:41Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Ministers of States and Union territories that's currently
00:46underway. Now this meeting is discussing the fallout of the war in West Asia and how this
00:53war is impacting the country, the states and the people. So discussions are being held on
01:00fuel supply, on inflation, on availability of gas, on logistics. So energy security is a
01:08very critical aspect but energy security is not the only issue that is being discussed.
01:13Security itself has massive ramifications right now. The Chief Ministers are actually giving
01:19details to the Prime Minister about the situation in their state, the preparations that they are
01:25making and the assistance the states require from the centre. It is extremely significant to note
01:30that the government has issued a statement saying as of now they have 74 days of reserve capacity.
01:37That's the reserve capacity. The stocks available as on date is about 60 days. So nearly two months of steady
01:45supply of crude is available regardless of what happens in the world. Next two months crude procurement
01:53has also been secured. This is the government saying so in a statement. India is secured for the next
02:00several months when it comes to quantity of strategic storage. That's point one. Point two,
02:06when it comes to LPG. The government says and there is this LPG control order issued by the government
02:13that says domestic refinery production has been ramped up by 40%. What does this mean? Daily LPG output
02:21within the country is 50 TMT. Now that's about 60% of our requirement against a total requirement of
02:3080 TMT. So 50 TMT is being produced in India itself. The net daily import requirement is about 30 TMT
02:40per day.
02:41India right now is already a short of 800 TMT, a short inbound LPG cargo. Now that's been secured from
02:51countries
02:52like the United States, Russia, Australia, among others. So as far as 22 LPG import terminals are there in the
03:02country
03:03right now. In 2014, the government says there were 11. Now they're up to 22. So even when it comes
03:09to LPG, the next 30 days
03:11supply is firmly arranged. There is no need to panic. Oil companies are delivering according to the government in a
03:19statement
03:19about 50 lakh cylinders every day. The cylinder demand that had gone up to 89 lakh cylinders a day and
03:25that was because
03:26of panic. Consumers are now gradually coming out of that panic situation. That's the information that's coming out.
03:33The images that you see, the Prime Minister is listening to various Chief Ministers, what's happening in various states.
03:39So commercial allocation has also been erased to 50% in consultation with state governments. Of course, the Prime Minister
03:47is
03:47telling Chief Ministers to ensure there is no black marketing, there's no hoarding. I quickly want to cut across to
03:52India today's
03:52Piyush Mishra, who joins us with the latest on this. Piyush, give us details of what the apprehensions are, because
04:00states must be
04:00very worried. And what is the Prime Minister telling the states?
04:05Well, Gaurav, in a way, it is not only, you know, a meeting with Chief Ministers, but also a
04:11preparation and review meeting of how the states are prepared and how the centre can assist them if
04:17the situation further works. Though the government has made it very, very clear, central government has said
04:23it very, very clear that no need to panic, no need to worry. We are equipped with all kinds of
04:29resources. There's no shortage of LPG,
04:32petrol, diesel. In fact, we also saw as to how today the government slacked the excise duty from
04:36petrol and diesel. So right now, as you're speaking, the meeting is underway. It's been more than an hour this
04:41meeting is going on. And sources have confirmed to India today that this meeting is basically discussing the
04:48ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the situation which is there in these states. This meeting is also
04:54focusing as to what is the condition there following the global tensions on Iran war. The discussions are
05:02basically focusing on fuel supply, inflation, and how the state governments are ready as far as logistics
05:08arrangements are concerned. Sources have also told Gaurav that Chief Ministers are providing information on state
05:15situation and the preparations which they have done so far. You would remember that our Prime Minister in his
05:21speeches in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha has given out the message of Team India. He has also said that
05:28we fought
05:29unitedly during the COVID times and it's the time of again showing the spirit of Team India and that's why
05:37in the
05:37same spirit we are seeing this meeting taking place. You know, that's a very significant point the Prime Minister
05:41made, Piyush, and I want you to tell us more details. When the Prime Minister drew parallels with the
05:48situation around the COVID time, was he trying to say that supply chains were adversely impacted,
05:57supplies were impacted, so everyone came together and they worked towards it. Is there an apprehension?
06:03because there are many reports that seem to indicate should this war intensify in West Asia,
06:09supplies may be impacted and that is why everyone needs to come together and the Prime Minister also
06:14insisted as our other central ministers about need to check black marketing and hoarding.
06:21What more can you add? Well, there's no doubt that we strongly and we unitedly fought what happened
06:29during the COVID times. We also overcome from that. In fact, India also, you know, produced a lot of vaccines
06:36which was then given to various other countries to fight COVID. And looking at that, the manner in which
06:46all state governments stood unitedly and ensured that the situation can be controlled. On the same
06:52pattern, Prime Minister has been requesting state governments not to panic, no need to worry. We have already fought a
06:58pandemic-like situation. We can overcome this situation too. But yes, the situation could worsen in coming days if this
07:04war
07:04further continues. The government has been maintaining that we have enough stock. We have made arrangements for the next two
07:12months. No need to worry till then. But imagine if this situation further deteriorates, how can we fight? And that's
07:18why we are
07:19seeing more of this meeting taking place. The Prime Minister is trying to understand the concerns of state government. How
07:24prepared
07:25are they? What needs to be done? The Prime Minister is also seeking reports on the logistic arrangements that are
07:32there with the state
07:32government. And that's how the meeting is being held. What is more important here?
07:36I will come back to you for more on this as the story develops. The Prime Minister wants all the
07:45states and the centre to work together as a team to ensure that there are whatever problems that may arise
07:53are effectively addressed.
07:55Now, exactly a month ago, on the 27th of February, just before the conflict began, Brent, the crude was hovering
08:03around $72 to $73 a barrel. Today, it surged to $111 a barrel.
08:09So, there's been a sharp spike in weeks. India has largely been shielded. And despite this global surge in prices,
08:18petrol and diesel prices in India remain unchanged.
08:21The government has stepped in to absorb the shock. The government said so in a statement. They've cut excise duties
08:27significantly. For petrol, it's been reduced from 13 rupees to 3 rupees per litre. For diesel, from 10 rupees.
08:34Effectively, there is no excise on diesel. The aim is clear to support oil companies so that consumers are not
08:41burdened with higher prices. But this doesn't mean fuel prices will fall at the pump. What this does do is
08:47effectively prevent the oil firms from increasing fuel prices.
08:51At the same time, the government has firmly dismissed any fears of fuel shortage.
08:57The government, in a statement, has said India is the world's fourth largest refiner and the fifth largest exporter of
09:07petroleum products.
09:08And this means effective availability of both petrol and diesel is assured at all times. All 1 lakh plus petrol
09:19and diesel outlets across the country are open, dispensing fuel without interruption, and no single outlet has been asked to
09:29ration supplies.
09:30On crude, the government says there is no supply gap despite Strait of Hormuz effectively being closed, though some Indian
09:38ships have been able to come through.
09:40But India is now sourcing crude from 41 countries. Refineries, they're operating at 100% capacity.
09:48The government statement says India has effective 74 days reserve capacity. The actual stock is 60 days.
09:58So, about two months of steady supply for every citizen is insured regardless of what happens globally. That's the message
10:05the government is giving out.
10:06The government also asserts when it comes to LPG supply, it is stable.
10:10Domestic production has been ramped up significantly. Imports have been secured. Deliveries are being normalized.
10:18There was brief panic buying. That brief panic buying, according to the government, it's come down from 89 lakh cylinders
10:27now to about 50 lakh cylinders.
10:29Fuel supplies are steady. Stocks are adequate. Listen in to the finance minister, Nirmala Sitaraman. I'll get you more on
10:37this story.
10:40So, I'll tell you, Mr. Vishaita Pradhan Mantriji's mind, that people don't have diesel or petrol.
10:51The other thing, we should be able to supply in our country.
10:57The other thing, we should be able to supply in our country.
11:22So, we've told you the situation in the country, but what's happening in our neighborhood and what's happening in different
11:29parts of the world, let me get you a bigger picture.
11:32Petrol prices in India, they haven't gone up since the start of this conflict except, of course, premium petrol.
11:39Compare this to what's happening in the world. The United States, for example, fuel prices have shot up by 30%.
11:47Australia has seen a sharper spike and that's over 40%.
11:52And we're putting those numbers out for you, for you to assess what's happening across the world.
11:58In India's neighborhood, for example, Sri Lanka, petrol prices went up nearly 34%.
12:03Pakistan's recorded a jump of about 24%.
12:06They also have a shortage of fuel. They're resorting to rationing.
12:10China and Japan are seeing significant increases in prices, about 20% each.
12:16Look at what's happening in Europe, for example.
12:19Countries like France, countries like Germany, they've witnessed double-digit hike.
12:23The United Kingdom, it's up nearly 10%.
12:26In West Asia itself, prices have risen in countries like the United Arab Emirates.
12:32We'll also get you a picture of what's happening in Israel.
12:36What's the bottom line?
12:37Much of the world is grappling with a sharp fuel price shock.
12:42India, for now, is managing to absorb it.
12:46How long is the big question? We'll get you more in this report.
13:00With the West Asia war showing no signs of ending, the world is on the edge.
13:05And for good reason.
13:07Global crude oil prices have surged, forcing countries to scramble to meet rising demand.
13:13The United States, which along with Israel initiated the conflict, is among the worst hit.
13:20Fuel prices have jumped by nearly 30% since the war began.
13:23And it's the common man who's bearing the brunt.
13:27Ever since the war started in the Middle East, we have been facing increased prices and freight costs, as well
13:39as costs for international or global supply chain.
13:43In Australia, diesel prices have climbed to nearly $3 a litre.
13:49Panic buying has gripped fuel stations, with nearly 600 outlets reportedly running dry and fears that more could follow.
13:55Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promised to shield citizens from the global oil shock.
14:00We continue to act to prepare and shield Australians from the worst of it.
14:05Working with industry, working with different levels of government to make a difference for small businesses, for farmers, for the
14:16Australian public,
14:17dealing with these cost of living pressures, which are very real as a result of the inflationary impacts here and
14:25around the world.
14:27In the Philippines, a national energy emergency has been declared amid dwindling fuel supplies.
14:33There are growing concerns that other Southeast Asian nations could soon face similar disruptions.
14:41Every single day the homeless trade is closed, we will still accumulate the impact of losing a significant share of
14:48the oil flow,
14:49which means that the longer the crisis goes, the deeper the problem will be for each of these governments and
14:55countries.
14:56So until the conflict is resolved, unfortunately there's really not much of a way out for many countries across the
15:03board.
15:05Back then, when diesel wasn't that expensive, we fill up 900 pesos worth of diesel.
15:11Good enough for the whole day up until evening.
15:13Now we have to spend at least 2,000 pesos.
15:17Instead of being able to bring home the earnings, it goes to pay for diesel.
15:21What's left for us is very little.
15:24Around 300 to 200, it's what we have to endure.
15:30In Chile, rising fuel prices have left stations running empty, pushing citizens into distress.
15:37This is hitting us very hard.
15:39We depend on fuel, and we are going to do our best to make sure this price hike does not
15:44get passed on to the parents,
15:46because things are already tough enough as it is.
15:50Even Russia, one of the world's largest energy exporters, is feeling the strain of the global oil shock.
15:56President Vladimir Putin has likened the current crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic.
16:02It's dealing a great damage to the global logistic supply chains, production chains, and entire industries of the fuel production,
16:18fuel refinery.
16:18Our industries are getting these heavy blows, and it's difficult to predict what happens next.
16:26There are some estimates that you can compare this situation with the coronavirus pandemic.
16:30The oil shock triggered by the West Asia conflict is rippling across the globe.
16:34But compared to many other nations, India remains in a relatively stronger position.
16:39In fact, the government in a statement has said that India is an oasis of energy security right now in
16:52a world that's seeing a lot of changes.
16:54And I want to just read out to you.
16:55The government says India is an oasis of energy security.
16:59India is the world's fourth largest refiner, fifth largest exporter of petroleum product, supplying refined fuel to over 150 countries.
17:08And because India is a net exporter to the world, domestic petrol and diesel availability is structurally assured.
17:17But what's happening right now in West Asia?
17:20The eye of a storm.
17:22US President Donald Trump, he has announced an extension of 10 days on that five-day pause on strikes at
17:30Iran's energy infrastructure.
17:33Now, why is this happening?
17:34President Trump insists Iran is desperate.
17:37Iran is begging that America should have a deal.
17:42Tehran maintains that they haven't sought any dialogue at all.
17:46They're not pleased with this US proposal, that 15-point plan given by the United States.
17:52They don't accept it at all.
17:53So, very clearly, if there is some kind of a dialogue happening, both sides on the face of it are
18:01not agreeing with each other's points of view.
18:03So, is this pause on strikes, on energy infrastructure, a smokescreen?
18:09Is US President Donald Trump planning a much bigger ground operation in Iran?
18:16We get you more in this report.
18:25US forces continue to eliminate threats by the Iranian regime, striking over 10,000 targets since the start of Operation
18:34Epic Fury.
18:34However, in a move that could reshape the trajectory of US-Iran tensions, Trump has extended the pause on any
18:42offensive action against Iran's key energy assets by a further 10 days.
18:47A decision that comes amid heightened fears of conflict in West Asia.
18:51The announcement came in a post on Truth Social, where Trump said the extension followed a request from Tehran and
18:59confirmed the pause would run until April 6th.
19:05The announcement follows weeks of aggressive rhetoric and rising military posturing, with both sides signalling readiness while avoiding direct confrontation.
19:24Iran's energy infrastructure remains at heart of this standoff, from vast oil fields to critical export terminals.
19:30The sector fuels Iran's economy and serves as a strategic lever in global geopolitics.
19:37Any disruption here could send shockwaves far beyond the region.
19:40You know, speculate on what it would take.
19:43You know, speculate on what it would take.
19:43It can be open tomorrow if Iran stops threatening global shipping, which is an outrage and a violation of international
19:48law for all the penalties that care about international law.
19:51They should be doing something about it.
19:54Trump also insisted that Iran was pushing for a deal to bring the war to an end, stressing that previous
20:00Iranian leaders lost their lives for failing to reach an agreement with him.
20:06But they say, oh, we're not talking to anybody would know that.
20:10And only a total.
20:12And they're not fools.
20:13They're very smart, actually, in a certain way.
20:15And they're great negotiators.
20:17I say they're lousy fighters, but they're great negotiators.
20:22And they are begging to work out a deal.
20:27Trump further claimed that Iran gifted oil tankers to U.S.
20:31by allowing 10 Pakistani flagged oil tankers to pass through Hormuz Strait as a goodwill gesture during ongoing backchannel talks,
20:40a statement that has raised eyebrows.
20:44We're going to let you have eight boats of oil, eight boats, eight big boats of oil.
20:49This was two days ago.
20:50And they'll sail up tomorrow.
20:52That was three days ago.
20:55And I didn't think much about it.
20:59Trump also said that taking control of Iran's oil was an option, but said that he would not talk about
21:06it.
21:06Are you thinking of taking control of Iran's oil?
21:12It's an option.
21:13I mean, I wouldn't talk about it, but it's an option.
21:18For Iran, its oil network is not just economic.
21:21It's strategic.
21:23Any attack could provoke retaliation, potential escalating into a border regional conflict involving multiple actors.
21:30The pause offers a narrow window for negotiations, but also keeps the threat of action alive.
21:37As the day 10 clock ticks, uncertainty dominates the global stage.
21:42Whether this pause leads to diplomacy or simple delays confrontation remains to be seen.
21:48Bureau Report, India Today.
21:54So after 28 days of intense bombing, is there now a window of opportunity for peace, for an off ramp?
22:02Or are there apprehensions that there will be massive escalation after these 10 days?
22:08Joining me on India First is Professor Hushang Amirah Mahdi.
22:13Professor Amirah Mahdi is president of the American Iranian Council and a professor at the Rutgers University.
22:19Professor, welcome.
22:21President Trump has announced a 10-day extension of ceasefire on targeting Iran's energy infrastructure.
22:28Sir, do you see this as a window to de-escalate, initiate dialogue?
22:34Or do you fear that the United States is preparing for a much bigger strike ahead like in the past?
22:45Well, obviously, I don't believe that Iran will accept a ceasefire.
22:51I think because this is not really an average war.
22:56Americans, you know, invaded, I mean, they attacked Iran.
23:02And if they believe the war has to end, they just have to simply withdraw its forces and stop attacking
23:14Iran.
23:15That will be the ceasefire.
23:17But if Mr. Trump is thinking of Iran going to somewhere and sit with it and negotiate a ceasefire while
23:30the war is going on, that will not work.
23:36There is nobody on Iran's side that will dare to participate in any such negotiation.
23:46I think the best way for the war to end is for President Trump to declare victory, as he always
23:55does, and just pull out, stop attacking Iran, take the troops out, and then offer Iran a comprehensive negotiation.
24:09Okay.
24:10But with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in one of the initial strikes of the war, has that vertical power structure
24:18of the Islamic Republic of Iran collapsed?
24:20Is there now a more horizontal structure, you know, perhaps IRGC or the hardliners in IRGC, the younger leaders, the
24:29second or the third-rung leaders now at the helm?
24:32And does this make Iran more unpredictable and harder to negotiate with?
24:41Certainly that is the case.
24:43Certainly that is the case.
24:43That's a very good take you just explained.
24:46The biggest mistake of this war on the US and Israeli side was to eliminate Mr. Khamenei.
24:55Mr. Khamenei was actually a break on the military, on the revolutionaries, on the radicals.
25:04He kept the balance, and if Mr. Khamenei, for example, was still in power in Iran, there will not be
25:14a single missile hitting the Arab world.
25:17The Strait of Hormuz would have not been closed.
25:21And he would do the same thing as he did in the first war.
25:24None of these happened.
25:26In the second war, Khamenei wasn't there.
25:29And therefore, the IRGC and others felt liberated and they took the affairs in their hands.
25:40And now they are in the field fighting.
25:46And this revolution, yeah, and this revolutionary forces are very decentralized.
25:51For example, IRGC is decentralized into 31 provinces.
26:00That is to say, there are 31 provinces in Iran with 31 IRGC structures.
26:08Each of them are the king of their castle.
26:12So that makes that makes negotiation all the more difficult.
26:17Is there an opportunity for an off ramp?
26:20What is your assessment of President Trump saying Iran wants peace?
26:25They are very keen to have a ceasefire.
26:28And that's why they sent, for example, 10 ships laden with oil as a gesture of goodwill for peace.
26:38First, Iranian people are peaceful people.
26:42They did not invade anybody.
26:44They have been attacked and they are defending.
26:49Obviously, Iranian people want peace.
26:52No question about it.
26:53But in this particular case, it is not the Iranian people.
26:58It's the military that has been attacked and they are defending.
27:02As I said, Mr. Trump's best option is to pull out.
27:09Again, Mr. Trump is contradicting himself.
27:12In the one hand, he sends thousands of more troops to the region.
27:18And at the same time, he says, I have won the war and that they are trying to negotiate and
27:24I wanted to negotiate.
27:25In fact, what Mr. Trump is trying to do is to balance between the market and the warmongers.
27:33The market dislikes this war.
27:37The stock market and everything is really in extremely terrible shape.
27:42The price is going up and then at the same time, the warmongers are making money from this war.
27:51Just recently, billions of dollars were given in projects to the American military industrial complexes.
28:00It's just amazing how the market and this military industrial complex have come to confront each other.
28:11Okay.
28:12So are there powers in Iran who may want dialogue, who may want peace?
28:19What do people on the street want?
28:21And you're in touch with a number of people in Iran.
28:27First, Iranian people obviously want dialogue and peace.
28:31But they are not pressuring the regime or the military to end the war or to accept ceasefire and so
28:39on.
28:40Because they know that they are defending.
28:43They are not offending force.
28:46They are defending force.
28:48So there is no pressure from the Iran side.
28:51But at the same time, I am talking to Iranians, family members and a lot in the country.
28:58The life is going on.
28:59Okay.
29:00Believe me, it's not normal.
29:02But it isn't like a miserable life that many people think.
29:06People are going their own way.
29:08Shops are all open.
29:09Okay.
29:10And, you know, the offices are all open.
29:13The bureaucracy is working.
29:14And so therefore, this is a war that largely is being waged between the military and the radicals and the
29:24volunteers.
29:25And there are millions.
29:27And then, and the U.S. and others.
29:29And then Americans have, of course, and the Israelis have air power and priority.
29:35And they are hitting Iran from the, from the skies.
29:41And they are, so at times they are hitting the wrong places.
29:44Do you see the Americans?
29:45And so on.
29:46Do you see the Americans put boots on ground next?
29:49Do you see the Americans put boots on ground next?
29:52Because like you pointed out, the American superior air power, their military power.
29:56If they try and take control, take, for example, the Khark Island, or if they want to dominate the state
30:02of Hormuz, what would that lead to?
30:08Yes, that would be a huge, huge mistake.
30:11The first mistake I said was elimination of Khamenei.
30:16The second mistake, even larger and bigger, would be for the U.S. to send any military people to the,
30:25on the Iranian soil.
30:27Being an island in the, in the Persian Gulf or the mainland doesn't matter.
30:34Anywhere that Iran's owns is Iran's land.
30:38And that would be an occupation force.
30:41And American will be in terrible shape.
30:44Americans are very good in, in short term and local wars, but they are nearly, are not good for the
30:53long term or even medium term and, and middle wars.
30:58For example, they go and take over Iraq, they go take over, you know, Afghanistan, but then they lose and
31:08fly out, escape.
31:10In Iran is even a worst case relative to others for the U.S.
31:17And I mean, I can't believe anybody in the U.S. can think of sending troops in Iran, thinking, look,
31:25these are islands.
31:26And so therefore they are isolated from the mainland.
31:30And that could be different.
31:32No, it could not be different.
31:34It would be the same.
31:35And that would be a big mistake.
31:37I think I will ask my American colleagues, my American friends, stop sending any soldier, any force inside Iranian lands,
31:50anywhere, in the Persian Gulf or the mainland.
31:56Sir, before I let you go, I just want to ask you if the Americans want to have a dialogue,
32:01who do they have a dialogue with?
32:02That's a question that's repeatedly been asked.
32:04Can there be dialogue with President Pazishkian?
32:07Can there be dialogue with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, with the Speaker of the Parliament, Velibov?
32:13Anyone else you think, in the hardliners, who the country would listen to?
32:20But let me remind your listeners that this war started in the midst of negotiations between U.S. and Iran.
32:32Americans were negotiating with Iranians in both wars that they attacked the country.
32:39And the people who were negotiating are the people that you just named.
32:44So I don't believe what that would really mean for the negotiation for later on.
32:52No.
32:53I think the Americans have just to pull out.
32:57They can't be negotiated.
32:58They don't believe anymore in negotiation, Iranians.
33:01In both cases, they just simply negotiated to get war.
33:10Interesting.
33:11You should point that out, that there is no faith in negotiations.
33:14For joining me here, Professor, many thanks.
33:17I now want to quickly cut across and bring into this conversation Brian Clark, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute,
33:24an expert on naval warfare, naval operations, electronic warfare and autonomous systems.
33:31Sir, welcome.
33:32I want to understand from you, now that America is talking about the two marine expeditionary units being sent here,
33:42the 82nd airborne being sent here.
33:45What is it that you're looking at, 10 days of not targeting any energy infrastructure?
33:51And then what?
33:53Brian Clark, how do you look at this, sir?
33:56I think what the president is trying to do is create a lot of options to pressure the Iranian government
34:02to come to some kind of negotiated settlement.
34:04So they'll have 8,000 troops at sea and ashore in the region between those three units you mentioned.
34:10And on top of that, they have the ability to continue these airstrikes, which they could
34:15escalate to go after civilian infrastructure and take out some of the energy grid.
34:21The idea might be that those pressure points would be enough to bring the Iranian leadership
34:26to the bargaining table.
34:28But as the professor just talked about, there aren't very many incentives for Iran to come
34:33to the negotiating table at this point because negotiations didn't work out before.
34:38They still had war.
34:40And who's to say the Trump administration wouldn't back away from any agreements that they do make?
34:48So what is the assessment, you know, academically?
34:52Do the Americans want an off ramp?
34:56Do they want negotiations?
34:57Or are they looking at with the kind of forces that are being mobilized?
35:02Is there another game plan?
35:03Is there another end game in mind?
35:05Yeah, the U.S. definitely wants a negotiated settlement at this point because they need
35:10to get the straight open.
35:12And really, the only way to get the straight open is to either get Iran to agree to open
35:16it up for vessel traffic or to put boots on the ground along the coastline and mount a sustained
35:24effort to eradicate threats along the coast, coupled with airstrikes, coupled with naval escorts.
35:31So you're talking about the deployment of these thousands of troops, plus a dozen or more ships,
35:37plus continued air operations over the region, which will involve, you're talking tens of thousands
35:43of troops continuing to be deployed for what would be months.
35:46So one option is months-long deployment of tens of thousands of troops to keep the straight open
35:52forcibly or to reach a negotiated settlement.
35:55And I think the U.S. would prefer the latter, but the Trump administration doesn't want to back down.
36:01So the professor was just saying they could stop and seek a settlement with the Iranians after they stop
36:07the attacks.
36:08And I think the administration is worried about appearing weak and doesn't want to stop the attacks.
36:12So therefore, they need to keep up this maximum pressure campaign on the Iranians and hope that they back down.
36:20So Brian Clark, then is this then that escalation trap that you keep escalating, hoping the other side would then
36:28back down?
36:29Is there any indication whatsoever, despite this intense bombing in the past 28 days, that Iran wants to back down
36:37and the kind of resources?
36:38And you study naval warfare, you study autonomous weapons.
36:43Iran has a sizable quantity, and especially in and around the Strait of Hormuz, their undersea drones, their Shahid drones.
36:52Any indication that there would be a solution?
36:55This could only turn out to be bloodier and make Vietnam, could end up being another Vietnam, as some argue.
37:03I don't think it would end up being another Vietnam, because I think the U.S. would back down at
37:07some point.
37:08And the number of troops involved is obviously not as high.
37:11But it could become a kind of a quagmire, like we saw, for example, in Iraq and Afghanistan for a
37:18time.
37:19So it could turn that direction if the U.S. does not eventually find an off ramp.
37:23But I agree with you.
37:24I think the the Iranians clearly have hundreds of drones, dozens or hundreds of missiles still available to them.
37:31And they've hidden and kept hidden so that they've not been reduced by the tens of thousands of strikes they've
37:36received.
37:36So they could continue to mount these attacks for an indefinite period.
37:40So really, the only way for the U.S. to stop it is to do a large operation that they
37:45sustain over months to eradicate these threats as they emerge or negotiate a settlement with the Iranians.
37:51And to your point about escalation, the problem is the U.S. did the most escalatory thing they could do
37:56right away by killing the leadership of Iran that normally you'd work up to that.
38:01Normally, you would have done these smaller scale operations, the strikes, maybe even moving ground troops into the region.
38:08That would have been part of your escalation ladder on the lower rungs.
38:11And then the upper rungs would be attacking the leadership.
38:14But by attacking the leadership, they've basically taken out the tools they have to threaten escalation further.
38:19So now there's no incentives for the Iranians to negotiate because the U.S. has already done the most damaging
38:26thing it can do.
38:29So what can be an off ramp or is there no off ramp?
38:33You know, we will suffer.
38:35And remember, Iran's not just talking about the Strait of Hormuz.
38:39And I want to show that map they're also threatening to block the Bab al-Mandeb.
38:44So, you know, then it will be a double whammy for the world.
38:47It could be.
38:48And so the interesting thing is that the Houthis haven't done anything during this whole confrontation.
38:53And I think that was because the Iranian leadership was hoping to keep them as a reserve tool if they
38:59needed to further intensify the pressure on the rest of the world to stop the attack.
39:04So they could unleash the Houthis who could close off or attempt to close off the Bab al-Mandeb, maybe
39:10even with mining, because one thing that the Houthis didn't use in the previous campaign they mounted over the last
39:15two years was mining, which would be very difficult to eliminate through the Bab al-Mandeb.
39:20So you could end up with a combination of drones and mines that now cut the Red Sea off from
39:25the rest of the world and then add, obviously, pressure to the international economy.
39:30So that's something that the Iranians still have tools for escalation in their toolbox.
39:35The U.S. really doesn't have tools for escalation.
39:38They just have tools for widening the conflict and making it more damaging for the U.S.
39:43So I think that really drives us into a world where the only way of getting an off ramp is
39:47through a negotiated settlement.
39:49And the U.S. will probably need to back down on what it's doing rather than intensify it, because intensifying
39:56it is only going to drive the Iranians to be further insulated and seek their own escalatory options.
40:05Will the U.S. back down?
40:07You know President Trump.
40:10There are some who argue that, you know, it's Tacko Trump.
40:14Trump always chickens out.
40:16But in this case, would it be very, very serious in terms of, you know, the American might in West
40:23Asia, other GCC countries taking America seriously as a net security provider?
40:28Would that change global equations if America were to back out of this situation?
40:33I mean, that would be damaging to U.S. reputation if it were to back down, you know, unilaterally.
40:39I think what the U.S. is likely to do is continue the strike campaign because that's something that the
40:44GCC allies want and that's something that Israel wants.
40:47They'll continue to come up with reasons to not go after power infrastructure, but they'll continue to mount these strikes
40:54in an attempt to degrade Iran's military capability even further.
40:57And then at some point, the U.S. will probably declare victory and go start to withdraw, which will provide
41:05some room for a negotiated settlement.
41:07But I think they're going to continue the strike campaign for a while longer because there's a hope that they
41:12will be able to eliminate more of the capacity that Iran has to mount future attacks, because that's something the
41:17GCC allies want, because now their neighborhood has become more dangerous and they would like their neighbor, Iran, to be
41:24as degraded as possible before we reach a peace agreement.
41:30Is there a threat to the petrodollar here? Amit reports that Iran may want to deal with some other currency
41:37and may want to take money in times to come for every ship that crosses the Strait of Hormuz.
41:43Does that challenge global sea lanes of communication, open communications and the strength of the petrodollar?
41:50Definitely. It's a possibility. It may be that Iran wants that in compensation for stopping the campaign.
41:56They may want to establish some kind of scheme where you have to basically pay a toll to go through
42:02the Strait of Hormuz.
42:04Russia does a similar toll when shipping companies want to use the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic.
42:10So there's precedent for establishing these kinds of fees.
42:14But it is a bad precedent because now you have the potential for other countries to decide they're going to
42:20charge a toll to go through the local strait in their neighborhood.
42:24So that that but that would be a potential avenue.
42:30So every which way it does appear this this this may just intensify and since you're a naval warfare, you
42:37know, expert, I want to understand from you, you know, President Trump is talking about deploying or the Americans have
42:43already deployed, you know, the uncrewed drone boats, the GARC global autonomous reconnaissance craft.
42:49Is that the changing face of warfare now, the drones and this autonomous reconnaissance craft?
42:57That is the future. It is a big element of the future of warfare.
43:01Those GARC autonomous boats are probably going to be used primarily by the U.S. for reconnaissance and monitoring the
43:08coastline, because one of the challenges with monitoring the Iranian coastlines is very rough.
43:12There's a lot of terrain. It's very difficult from the air to really understand exactly what's happening at the water
43:18level.
43:18So this gives you the ability to surveil the coastline continuously and at really low cost.
43:26And so then they give the ability to then mount airstrikes when they do find threats emerging from caves or
43:31storage storage locations.
43:35Brian Clark, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. Many thanks for joining me here as this war progresses.
43:42For the first time, you have in this active conflict, the U.S. confirming it's deployed the uncrewed drone boat,
43:51making Iran against Iran, marking a very significant shift in the naval strategy in this war.
43:58What is the GARC? A GARC, the Global Autonomous Reconnaissance Craft.
44:06Now, these are about five meter long, very high speed, unmanned surface boats designed primarily, as you can see, for
44:17surveillance.
44:18So they have radars, they have cameras, they have sensors, but there is a potential that they can be weaponized
44:25if and when required.
44:27So according to the Pentagon, the forces have actively used the GARC sea drones as part of Operation Epic Fury.
44:36These boats, the one that you see on your screen, has already logged about 450 hours at sea.
44:43They've covered more than 2,200 nautical miles during patrolling missions.
44:48So for now, the role remains limited to maritime surveillance and reconnaissance.
44:53But in times to come, there is a possibility they could be used as suicide drones or kamikaze-style boat
45:02attacks.
45:02It's capable.
45:03This marks a very new phase in this naval warfare.
45:08Incidentally, Ukraine has already demonstrated the effectiveness of sea drones against Russia's Black Sea fleet.
45:15Even Iran has deployed similar tactics, targeting oil tankers using unmanned water systems.
45:22Now, the U.S. is adapting and scaling that model.
45:26But there is a clear strategic logic behind this.
45:29These drone boats, they're much cheaper.
45:32They're much faster to deploy, faster to build and scale up and significantly less risky compared to traditional warships or
45:40even submarines.
45:41You're not risking your crew.
45:42You're not risking your soldiers or sailors.
45:44However, this program as of now, according to reports from the United States, are far from perfect.
45:49The U.S. Navy has faced multiple challenges.
45:52There are technical glitches.
45:53There are, of course, in the United States some cost concerns and technical failures.
45:57According to a report in the recent test in West Asia, one of the GARC drones, it just became completely
46:04inoperable.
46:05And that raised questions about reliability in real conflict conditions.
46:10So, right now, you have the U.S. Navy's 5th fleet.
46:14The 5th fleet is operating these drone boats.
46:17They're studying them in real-time maritime awareness and particularly near that very critical choke point, the Strait of Hormuz.
46:27I now want to cut across and bring in our guests for what's happening on the other front, that is
46:33the Israel-Lebanon front, and on the wider conflict and the role that Israel is part of these operations.
46:41Israel continues to launch strikes against Iran and against Lebanon.
46:46How is Benjamin Netanyahu looking at this conflict and the road ahead?
46:51Joining me is Gideon Levy, an internationally acclaimed journalist, author, award-winning columnist, joins us from Israel.
47:00Gideon Levy, welcome.
47:02I want to understand from you, sir, President Trump has made multiple claims in this ongoing conflict, but where do
47:10you see this conflict headed now?
47:15I'm not a prophet, and both scenarios are quite probable right now.
47:22We are on a very dangerous point, very explosive.
47:27It can turn into, and it is already a regional war, which many countries are involved.
47:34It can get much worse than this.
47:36And many things depend now on one person, namely President Donald Trump.
47:42He can put an end to it, together with some kind of Iranian flexibility, which I don't see until now.
47:51So, the way Israel is pursuing this war, how is this war proceeding on multiple fronts?
47:59You have the Lebanon front, you have the Iran front.
48:02If America says, let's not target energy infrastructure, how does Israel look at it?
48:09There is a fantasy, namely to change the regime in Iran, which is just a fantasy, and I don't see
48:19it happening.
48:20For sure, no, by bombing and destruction and killings, this will not work.
48:27And except of this, there is no endgame.
48:31But in this war, Israel is not the main actor.
48:37The United States is the actor.
48:39Israel will have to follow the United States.
48:43If the United States continues the war, Israel will join the United States.
48:48If the United States wants to put an end to it tomorrow, Israel has no other choice how to stop
48:54it.
48:54So, we are now a secondary actor in this war.
49:01Oh, so you're saying it's the U.S. that's leading this war and not Israel, because the impression by and
49:08large is that this is Israel's war and the Americans are just following the intelligence inputs, the information that comes
49:17from Israel.
49:18But does this war also indicate that just having sheer military superiority in terms of air power or weapons, that
49:26does not guarantee success?
49:2828 days of pounding, Iran remains in the battle.
49:34Sure, and I wish Israel would have learned this lesson, drawn this lesson many years ago.
49:40After 20 and a half years of destructing Gaza and killing tens of thousands of people, 1,000 babies, Israel
49:49did achieve nothing in Gaza.
49:51And now it gets to the same language of force, of military power, of ruthless attacks, which, in any case,
50:01I put aside the moral and the legal question.
50:04They are not effective.
50:05You cannot solve everything by military steps.
50:11But Israel didn't learn this lesson yet.
50:13And here we are again trying to achieve all kinds of imaginative goals by force.
50:21It will not work.
50:22It didn't work in the past and it will not work this time.
50:27And when you look at this conflict on day 28, Iran isn't just blocking the Strait of Hormuz, except for
50:35friendly countries, including India and Russia.
50:38But it's also, it's blocking it for other countries, opening it only for friendly countries.
50:43But it's also now threatening to block another Strait, that's Bab al-Mandab.
50:47Do you see this as escalation in this war with massive consequences, not just for the region, but for the
50:54world?
50:58Look, if the war stops now, Iran is the winner.
51:03Make no mistake.
51:07Iran survived an attack by the two strongest armies in the world.
51:12The regime is life and kicking.
51:16But the price was heavy for Iran.
51:19And if the war will continue, the price will be even heavier.
51:22I don't know what price is Iran or, let me be more precise, the leadership of Iran is ready to
51:29pay.
51:30But the price will be very heavy.
51:32But they are now, right now, the one who didn't blink.
51:37The one who are standing quite strong against those attacks.
51:43Now, if it will go further, like you mentioned, Israel's steps are now all depending on the United States.
51:52I mean, nothing Israel can do without cooperating, collaborating, coordinating with the United States.
52:01So it comes back to point one.
52:04Many or most of the questions are now in the hands of the President of the United States.
52:09He will have to decide.
52:11Does he continue this war?
52:12Is he ready to be flexible?
52:14Or is he ready to get to any kind of compromise?
52:44I hope this will not happen because this will complicate this war.
52:47Because once there will be boots on the ground, there will be also killed American soldiers.
52:55And then it gets more complicated because if American soldiers will start, until now, there were very few, relative to
53:03this war, very few American soldiers being killed.
53:07But if there will be boots on the ground, obviously, this will change.
53:11And then what?
53:12And then the United States will retaliate.
53:15Right now, they seem to send troops to the places you mentioned.
53:21Definitely.
53:22I hope it is just a way to put pressure on the Iranian leadership and not a real intention to
53:30do so, because this will change the whole world.
53:35You know, there are some analysts who say, had Ayatollah Ali Khamenei still been there, a solution could have been
53:43found.
53:44Right now, what is a way that a solution may be found?
53:50Who can mediate?
53:51How can a solution be found in your view?
53:54What needs to be done?
53:57The mediator is less important.
53:59And what is important is that, as far as I can judge, for both parties, this war was enough.
54:07And the interest of both parties is to stop it now, because the damages might increase both to Iran and
54:16to the United States, and specifically to Donald Trump, because his country does not like this.
54:24His fans, his supporters, his fans, his supporters, are not happy with this war.
54:29If he will continue with it, he will pay a political price.
54:34Also, the world will pay an economical price, which the world is not ready to pay.
54:40So, there is a common interest to stop it now, because for the Iranians also, it will not be easy
54:47to rehabilitate themselves if there will be more destruction in Iran.
54:53Let's say the Americans are bombing the power stations and Iran has no electricity.
55:00This is not a small thing.
55:01This can take decades until they will get back to their capabilities.
55:06So, it's exactly the point in time in which both should express their wish to stop it and be ready
55:15to go one to the other with finding a compromise.
55:21Both parties will have to give up some of their goals and put an end to it.
55:28If this will not happen, we are all in big troubles.
55:34Well, say in words, but will that sanity prevail, given the current situation?
55:40Gideon Levy, for joining me from Tel Aviv, Israel, many thanks.
55:45That's a very interesting perspective.
55:47You say that now it's the American president who's calling the shots and Israel is following whatever the American president
55:55says.
55:55We'll be tracking that story very, very closely.
55:58That is all I have for you on India First this evening.
56:01Many thanks for watching.
56:02News and updates continue on India Today.
56:04Stay with us.
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