- 12 minutes ago
US President Donald Trump signals America may exit the Iran conflict, claiming objectives have been achieved and Tehran is ready for a ceasefire.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching NewsTrack with me, Maria Shaquille.
00:04Geopolitics is all about power, strategy and optics.
00:08And that's exactly what's unfolding even as we speak.
00:13And as tensions escalate and we are looking at war which has been going on for the last one month
00:19and is continuing with his own people beginning to feel the pinch now,
00:24Donald Trump, U.S. President, finds himself at a strategic crossroads.
00:30To fight this war or not is the question before him.
00:34He claims that America's objectives in the conflict have been achieved
00:38and signals that Tehran may be ready for a ceasefire.
00:42That's what he said just a few hours ago that Iranian president wants ceasefire.
00:50This statement of Donald Trump comes after he vowed to crush Tehran.
00:55His recent statements have been about multiple flip-flops.
00:59And there have been questions that have been asked repeatedly
01:03whether the U.S. is now looking for an exit route.
01:06All eyes are now on his big address to the nation which is going to take place a few hours
01:12from now.
01:12What will he decide?
01:15Will he fight or walk away?
01:17Will he leave this for just a battle which has to be fought by the Israelis?
01:25Will Donald Trump be ready to leave Iran even without a deal?
01:29And if he does leave Iran, will the world be left to clean up his mess?
01:35Before I bring in the guests, we'll be taking a look at the report.
01:40But let's be clear that this address to the nation is being watched over, world over.
01:45We'll have a special coverage here on India Today starting 6 a.m.
01:50What will be Donald Trump's exit option?
01:53Whether he will be exiting this war or whether he will say that his earlier strategy
02:00of ensuring that there are ground troops, that he wants to extract uranium,
02:05has been one of the goalposts that he, you know, placed before the public at large.
02:11Remember, he has been shifting his goalposts.
02:13The end objective of this war isn't clear.
02:16What is it that U.S. warns from Iran is not clear.
02:22There has been a massive trust deficit on both the sides.
02:26The Iranians are very clear that they will not be looking at any kind of a ceasefire.
02:32Even as Donald Trump said that Iranian president wants a ceasefire,
02:36a quick rebuttal had come in from the Iranian side where they said that there's no question of ceasefire.
02:42So what are we looking at in terms of the big address to the nation?
02:46What is Donald Trump likely to say?
02:48Is he likely to come up with an exit option perhaps or say that there will be ground troops,
02:57something that the U.S. will be sending now on the ground in U.S.?
03:03Remember, with the Strait of Hormuz now being choked for over a month now,
03:09it's very clear that it is the U.S. which is now looking at an exit option.
03:18Tehran, for all practical purposes, is setting the timeline now for this war.
03:22Reports are suggesting that Donald Trump, in fact, spoke on the phone on Wednesday
03:26with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as well.
03:30This is a report which has come in just a few seconds ago.
03:33What was the nature of the conversation?
03:35What was the need for this conversation?
03:38Is the big question.
03:39Why is Donald Trump speaking to Mohammed bin Salman?
03:43And is this call timed with his address to the nation where most observers are of the opinion
03:50that Donald Trump is looking for an exit option, that he would want to exit this war
03:56because of multiple protests happening across America?
04:00The overall numbers, the popularity rating of Donald Trump has taken a huge hit.
04:07It's an unpopular war back home in America, something that Donald Trump is now sensing.
04:13And with the oil actually hitting $4, so it's actually causing a lot of pinch to the Americans as well,
04:22something that we are seeing in several parts of Asia, too.
04:26So Donald Trump, having spoken to Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia,
04:30what is the nature of the conversation?
04:31We'll try and connect with one of our reporters to get more details on that.
04:36But first up, what are the options before Donald Trump?
04:40Take a look.
04:56When trouble hits home, even the mighty must bend.
05:01Americans were already battling inflation.
05:04Now soaring gas and fuel prices are burning deeper holes in their pockets.
05:10Courtesy, Donald Trump's war in West Asia.
05:13And the man who returned to power with the promise of make America great again
05:17cannot afford to disappoint his base, his own.
05:21So is he preparing to walk away?
05:24Trump now says America's goals in the war have been achieved.
05:28He also says Tehran is ready for a ceasefire.
05:31And that he could soon exit Iran.
05:34I had one goal.
05:35They will have no nuclear weapon.
05:37And that goal has been attained.
05:39They will not have nuclear weapons.
05:41But we're finishing the job.
05:43And I think within maybe two weeks, maybe a couple of days longer to do the job.
05:49But we want to knock out every single thing they have.
05:52Now it's possible that we'll make a deal before that.
05:55Because we'll hit bridges.
05:56And we've hit some.
05:57We'll hit some bridges.
05:59We've got a couple of nice bridges in mind.
06:01But if they come to the table, that'll be good.
06:05The timing of the statement is very critical.
06:08This comes as he clashes with NATO allies, many of whom refuse to join his war.
06:13An angry Trump has told them, fight your own battles, get your own oil.
06:19This right after reports suggested that U.S. administration can't promise to restore free navigation
06:25to the Strait of Hormuz before declaring mission accomplished.
06:29Trump and team have already made it clear.
06:32What happens in the Strait is not America's problem.
06:36This Strait of Hormuz issue, which we've set the conditions for success,
06:41and we will make sure Iran knows that very clearly,
06:44is not just a United States of America problem set.
06:47We've been willing to lead.
06:49President Trump's led the entire time.
06:50But it's not just us.
06:52So ultimately, I think other countries should pay attention when the president speaks.
06:55He's proven that when he speaks, he means something.
07:00But the question is, is it really?
07:03Not really.
07:05Having no say in the Strait fight and with limited control over the Strait of Hormuz,
07:10Trump is now reshaping their narrative,
07:12claiming the objective was regime change in Iran.
07:15But walking away won't be easy for Trump.
07:18If Iran retains control of the Strait,
07:20it will be seen globally as a strategic setback for the U.S.
07:24Tehran could claim victory and rebuild deterrence,
07:27and can eventually impose tolls on global oil shipments.
07:33Tehran, anyway, says it is ready to sustain the war for the coming six months.
07:44You never like to say too early you won, we won, we won the bet.
07:48In the first hour it was over.
07:51Well, it'll be a loss of faith for Donald Trump,
07:54who's skilled at spinning almost anything into a victory.
07:58But remember, staying comes with a cost.
08:01Any attempt to reopen this trade by force risks heavy U.S. casualties.
08:05And a prolonged war.
08:08So exit may be politically convenient, but economically dangerous.
08:13Trump may be able to create political spin to explain his exit,
08:17but the markets are unlikely to be as easy to convince.
08:20A prolonged disruption could trigger a global showdown,
08:24with the shockwaves hitting the U.S. just months before crucial midterm elections.
08:30This just leaves us with the real victims.
08:33Leaders in Europe, who will now have to invest more in their own militaries
08:37with the understanding that America's post-World War II security umbrella
08:40has become unreliable.
08:42High energy prices and rising inflation threaten to crush fragile economies.
08:48First, let me say once again,
08:52this is not our war.
08:54We will not be drawn into the conflict.
08:58That is not in our national interest.
09:03But we know Trump is also highly unreliable and unpredictable.
09:07Whatever it is, all eyes are now on Trump's big address.
09:10Will he stay and escalate, or will he just walk away?
09:14Will he leave Israel all alone in this fight?
09:17And if he walks away, will the rest of the world be left to pay the price?
09:22With broader inputs, ask Sabhardwaj, India Today.
09:27And joining me now, Daniel Fried.
09:29He's the former U.S. Ambassador and Wiser Family Distinguished Fellow
09:33at the Atlantic Council.
09:35He's joining me from Washington, D.C.
09:37We have Barzeen Wagmar, who's a Research Fellow,
09:40Center for Iranian Studies, joining me from London.
09:44I'm going to begin with you, Ambassador.
09:47The sense certainly is that Donald Trump is increasingly isolated.
09:52That the cost of war with which Mr. Trump went into it
09:55is something that he did not really estimate.
09:57He did not really estimate or have this figured out
10:02that the Iranians could choke the Strait of Hormuz
10:06and it would come to bite him back home.
10:10What are the options before Donald Trump right now?
10:17The variable that I don't know
10:21is how much damage really has been done
10:25to the Iranian military machine
10:28and how much the Iranians' leadership,
10:33if you can consider that it has a single leadership,
10:36how much that leadership wants to settle the war.
10:40I realize that President Trump has taken a lot of criticism
10:44for various number of aspects of this conflict,
10:49but it is still possible for the United States
10:54to emerge somewhat ahead.
10:57There are other possibilities, of course,
11:00that it could be a prolonged mess.
11:03But if the Iranians are willing to stop the fighting
11:09and if there is some agreement on the nuclear issue,
11:15if the Iranians will offer something meaningful and verifiable
11:20that will constrain their nuclear weapons ambitions,
11:25then the U.S. will have achieved something.
11:28That is the best-case scenario, I will acknowledge.
11:32But it is not to be dismissed.
11:36The issue of the Strait of Hormuz,
11:41both complicated,
11:43and if the United States makes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
11:48its principal objective,
11:50it's already behind.
11:51Because it was open,
11:54it's only closed now
11:55because the United States initiated the war.
11:59Yes.
12:00So Donald Trump,
12:01perhaps at this stage,
12:03has very limited options,
12:06Barzine Wagmar.
12:07Here is the U.S. president.
12:08Just an hour ago,
12:10he put out a statement
12:12in which it was seen as him saying
12:15that the Iranians,
12:18in fact, he said
12:19that Iran's president has asked for a ceasefire.
12:23Again,
12:24few minutes later,
12:26Tehran spokesperson said
12:28that there is no question of ceasefire.
12:30They are rather waiting
12:31for the U.S. and Israeli troops
12:34to come on ground.
12:36The question is,
12:38this is miscalculation on the part of U.S.
12:41Will the U.S. then walk away from this war,
12:45leaving it for the Israelis to fight?
12:48And if that happens,
12:49what are the options before Iran?
12:53There is no misinformation.
12:55Rather, there is a dearth of information
12:57due to the digital blackout from Iran.
12:59And what we are not given to understand
13:01and be privy to the fact
13:02is who does one talk to in Tehran
13:04because they are fighting amongst themselves.
13:07There are various factions.
13:09So Ghalibhaf, the speaker,
13:10Vaidhi, the IRGC commander.
13:12President Pazeshkian is just a walkover
13:14as an own mental figurehead
13:15who doesn't count for anything.
13:17And there are various groups within groups
13:19who are discussing among themselves
13:21whether we ought to take up the U.S. offer
13:25mediated now through Pakistan.
13:27And France.
13:28Yes.
13:29And Tehran itself has forwarded five points
13:31to the 15 points that D.C.
13:34forwarded through Islamabad.
13:35So the question is,
13:36there is confusion within themselves.
13:38They cannot even meet as a government
13:40because of airstrikes
13:42and the potential of being eliminated as such.
13:45There is no cabinet meeting even occurring as such.
13:48The ambassador rightly pointed out
13:50about the nuclear question being capped once and for all.
13:53But had the talks gone through,
13:55remember, Maria,
13:56Haqqan Fidan, the Turkish foreign minister,
13:58also mentioned on the eve of the war, ambassador,
14:01that we will all in the region,
14:03GCC and non-GCC states,
14:06have to sit out and thrash out with Tehran
14:08their ballistic missile program,
14:10which is a clear and present danger to all of us
14:12and which is now patently evident to one and all.
14:15The fact is that that itself
14:17was never part of the JCPOA agreement.
14:20And whatever one may say about Trump's personal access
14:23to grind with Obama and that 2015 treaty,
14:27even Secretary Kerry,
14:28Foreign Secretary Kerry back then conceded privately, Maria,
14:31that we were unable to tackle that
14:34as part of the JCPOA.
14:35It was never on the books.
14:36And it's come full circle
14:38with grim consequences for all in the region to see.
14:41And you brought up the China factor also.
14:44Maria, don't forget,
14:46the Arabs are not going to forget
14:47what has happened with China
14:48providing real-time intelligence data
14:50to Iran for striking assets.
14:53And you can be sure,
14:55the Saudis most particularly,
14:56given that China-Saudi trade stands at $107.5 million.
15:02Can the American diplomacy really be trusted?
15:05This war was forced upon Iran
15:08even as the talks were undergoing, underway.
15:12So why should Iran or any country
15:15really believe that if Donald Trump
15:17is talking about a peace deal,
15:19can there be peace in these times?
15:21So that brings me to my next question
15:23to Ambassador Frey.
15:24Ambassador, here it's very clear
15:27that things are going in an unexpected way.
15:31The trajectory is being decided
15:33by the Israelis.
15:35The direction of this war
15:36is being decided by the Israelis.
15:38You have a new front
15:39having been opened in southern Lebanon as well.
15:44What are the options before Donald Trump?
15:47And what do you expect
15:48to be announced in six to seven hours from now?
15:52Oh, that's a dangerous question.
15:57Donald Trump is famously unpredictable.
16:00So I won't venture to try to guess.
16:03I think it is possible
16:05that the U.S. will send ground troops
16:09into Iran, Karg Island perhaps,
16:12or some of the other islands.
16:13But I'm still not convinced
16:15that that will be Trump's decision.
16:18Because doing so escalates the war.
16:22It puts American troops
16:24at greater risk of being hit,
16:28being killed by the Iranians.
16:30And Trump is well aware
16:32that this war is not popular
16:34with the American population.
16:36So he's not made the case.
16:38So it is possible he will attack.
16:42But I find it more likely,
16:44somewhat more likely,
16:45that he will keep looking for a way out.
16:49You asked whether the U.S.
16:51can be trusted diplomatically.
16:53Well, the Iranians are not exactly
16:56an ideal partner either.
16:58And I think that it is at least plausible
17:01that something could be worked out.
17:04It will be messy, confused, rough.
17:08And that's at best.
17:10But I wouldn't rule out that possibility.
17:13I wish the United States
17:15would spend time trying to build
17:17a coalition for a better outcome.
17:21I think we're spending a lot of time
17:24attacking our European allies,
17:26which I don't see the point in that.
17:28Ambassador, one point that is being
17:30also discussed is that
17:31one of the possible points
17:33that could be part of this
17:35address to the nation is
17:36that the U.S. president will say
17:38that U.S. is pulling out of NATO,
17:41something that he has spoken about.
17:43So it may not be just about
17:45whether there'll be a pause on this war
17:47or whether it'll be like an endless war
17:50that's what we are staring as of now on.
17:54It could be about pulling out of NATO.
17:56If that happens, what will it really mean?
17:59Well, I am not convinced
18:01that Trump will actually do that.
18:02I am confident that he will express
18:05frustration with NATO.
18:07He will lash out at NATO.
18:08He has done that already.
18:09Yes.
18:10He's calling them paper tiger,
18:12cowards, everything possible.
18:14All of that.
18:14All of that, which makes very little sense.
18:17It is, there is very little good
18:22to come out of that.
18:23I think this will be part of it
18:25as a political, partly a political distraction
18:28and partly a gesture to that part of Trump's base
18:33that doesn't like NATO.
18:34But I don't think that that,
18:36I think that the political implications
18:40of doing that for him would not be good.
18:42The security implications would be bad.
18:44So I tend to think even now
18:47that he is less likely to do that.
18:50Again, Trump is famously unpredictable,
18:52so I could look pretty foolish in a few hours,
18:55I will acknowledge.
18:56But I think that Trump is likely to threaten,
19:00more likely to threaten for the purpose
19:02of gaining leverage than actually pull out.
19:06But, good point,
19:07I don't have a lot of confidence
19:09in my own judgment on this.
19:10Okay, so I will not put you in that spot
19:12where you have to second guess
19:14an unpredictable President Donald Trump.
19:17Let me bring in Barzine again.
19:19Barzine, you know,
19:22you may say that there are confusing messages
19:24or signals coming in from Tehran.
19:26Who is really in charge is the question
19:28that is being asked here.
19:29But Tehran has sent a message
19:32that by controlling the movement
19:34through the Strait of Hormuz,
19:36it decides the entire energy supply
19:41in the world
19:43and the energy crisis
19:45is the new battlefield.
19:48And who suffers the most?
19:50China,
19:51with 38% of its oil supply
19:53going through the Strait of Hormuz.
19:54India at 13%,
19:5611% for Japan,
19:5715% for South Korea,
19:59so on and so forth.
20:00So when Secretary Hexitt said,
20:02and he quite bluntly put it,
20:03that we don't have any skin in this game
20:05because we are not suffering,
20:06he was driving home a very ugly truth.
20:08Buy U.S. oil
20:10or suffer the consequences.
20:11And that is a direct message
20:12also to the European and other partners.
20:15And London has come in
20:17for quite a bit of hammering on that,
20:19particularly Prime Minister Starmer
20:20from the Cypriots,
20:22if you remember, Ambassador,
20:24when the intel chiefs
20:25had to fly into Larnaca
20:26just after the war began
20:28as to assuage the Cypriots
20:31as to what are we going to do
20:32and are we going to bolster our defences.
20:34And of course,
20:35the HMS Dragon has set sail
20:36and is birthed off there now.
20:38But we also are ransomable
20:40to our GCC allies
20:41with whom we have
20:41an intense security
20:43intelligence relationship.
20:44And they will be also looking
20:46to London to take more action,
20:48which indeed is happening, Maria,
20:49because now the bases
20:50are being used for
20:51what is called defensive purposes.
20:53So although we are not
20:55offensively out there,
20:56we are definitely defensively
20:58very much in the fray
20:59and the theatre of war.
21:01And so you may say,
21:03whatever optics you may on it,
21:05but the question is
21:06some kinetic action
21:07is going to take place.
21:08I don't just see Kharg taken,
21:11but also Kesham Island,
21:12which is a subterranean
21:14IRGC naval city
21:15and perhaps Larak islet as such.
21:17But then there is also
21:18the question of the UAE,
21:20which requires back
21:21and reclaim rightly
21:22its own territory
21:23of which it was divested
21:25in 1971,
21:26the Abu Musa and Tomb Islands
21:27on the eve of independence
21:29from London in 1971.
21:31Okay, Barzim,
21:31we'll continue this conversation
21:34because of course
21:35tomorrow will be
21:36the big address.
21:38Barzim and Ambassador Frye,
21:39really appreciate your time.
21:40Thank you for joining us.
21:42More details now emerging
21:43from the CCS,
21:44which was chaired
21:45by Prime Minister Modi here
21:46in India.
21:48The Prime Minister
21:49chaired the CCS
21:50and this was of course
21:51with regards to
21:52the review.
21:53This was a review meeting
21:55which has to do
21:55with the decision
21:57which is being taken
21:58by the government of India
21:59on the West Asia conflict.
22:02There are interventions
22:03across agriculture,
22:05fertilizers,
22:05shipping, aviation,
22:07logistics and MSMEs
22:08to mitigate emerging
22:10challenges discussed,
22:12supply diversification
22:13for LPG and LNG,
22:15fuel duty reduction
22:16and power sector
22:18measures reviewed,
22:19steps being taken
22:21to ensure stable prices
22:22of essential commodities
22:23and strict action
22:25against hoarding
22:26and black marketing.
22:27And important here
22:28is that the control rooms
22:30have been set up
22:31for constant monitoring
22:32and the Prime Minister
22:33has assessed availability
22:35of critical needs
22:36for the common man.
22:38This is important
22:39because keeping in mind
22:40that there is a Karif
22:42and Rabi seasons.
22:43Aishwarya is joining us.
22:45Aishwarya,
22:45give us the details.
22:49Well, Rabi,
22:50you know,
22:50this is one of the things
22:51that the government
22:52has been looking at
22:53since day one.
22:54Prime Minister Modi
22:55is very, very clear.
22:56What the government
22:57now needs to do
22:58is A, make sure
22:59that there are no rumors
23:00that are doing rounds.
23:01The government also
23:02is now making sure
23:03that all the ministries,
23:04they work in tandem
23:05because the focus
23:06and the focal point
23:08of the government
23:08is to make sure
23:09that no one suffers
23:11here in our country.
23:12And that's the reason
23:13why we saw,
23:14you know,
23:14all the top ministers,
23:15all of them in this meeting.
23:16Everything needs to be
23:18accounted for.
23:19The data analysis
23:20has already been done
23:21by the government.
23:22The government is very clear.
23:23A, there is no shortage.
23:24Also, how we need to make sure
23:26that the next six months
23:27they do not impact our economy,
23:29they do not impact
23:30the common man.
23:30That is the detailed analysis
23:32that took place
23:32in this very crucial meeting
23:33from fertilizers
23:34to making sure
23:35that we have petrol,
23:37diesel and LPG
23:38under control.
23:39All these other things
23:39that have now been looked at.
23:41One of the things
23:42that the government
23:42has often been speaking about
23:44is that the government
23:45understands the need
23:47of the people
23:48and those are the things
23:49that the government
23:49at the moment
23:50is working towards.
23:51All ministries have been asked
23:52that you need to have
23:53control rules
23:54and boomer mongering
23:55is something
23:56that the government
23:56at the moment
23:57is keeping the hawks' eye on.
23:58Ashwari,
23:59I really appreciate your time
24:00because remember
24:01there was also
24:02the meeting
24:03which was chaired
24:04by the Prime Minister
24:05of all the Chief Ministers.
24:06The message was
24:08that this is
24:09functioning
24:10which is needed
24:11of Team India
24:12that all the states
24:13and the centre
24:15must work
24:16in complete coordination
24:17to mitigate
24:18any crisis
24:19that emerges
24:20because of the shortage
24:21of LPG,
24:22LNG
24:23and also
24:23particularly keeping in mind
24:25the sowing season,
24:28Cardiff and Rabi seasons,
24:29availability of fertilizers
24:31is very crucial as well.
24:33That's all from me
24:34in this edition
24:34of the news track.
24:35I'll be seeing you tomorrow.
24:37Thanks for watching.
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