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The West Asia conflict has intensified after an Israeli strike on Iran's South Pars gas field, a critical energy resource.
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00:02Good evening, Big Story coming in at 8 as we speak of a massive escalation on day 20 of the
00:08conflict in West Asia.
00:10U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has said that the United States may ease sanctions on Iranian oil.
00:18But this statement comes with a caveat. The United States may ease restrictions on Iranian oil.
00:25As of now, that's already at sea. This is a step that is being looked at to stabilize global supplies
00:34and prices.
00:36Scott Besant in an interview also said the United States could carry out a unilateral release of its oil reserves.
00:43Oil and gas, they're both on fire literally and figuratively on day 20 of the war in West Asia.
00:52The conflict has taken a very dangerous turn with Israel striking Iran's South Par's gas field.
00:59This is a critical energy lifeline, not just for Tehran, not just for the entire country of Iran, but for
01:06global supply chains.
01:08In Iran's response has been swift and devastating. Multiple energy hubs across the region have come under attack.
01:16So the moment Israel targeted the South Par's gas pipeline or oil gas field of Iran, Iran hit back.
01:28First targeting Qatar, the Ras Lafan.
01:32And Ras Lafan is home to the world's largest LNG export facility.
01:37Ras Lafan was hit by Iran.
01:39And this was followed by strikes on refineries in Saudi Arabia and in Kuwait.
01:44The fallout was immediate.
01:47Brent crude surge passed the $110 a barrel mark.
01:50Now this figured a sharp sell-off across global markets.
01:54Markets are in red.
01:56Kuwait has suspended operations at both the refineries that were struck by Iran.
02:02Gulf nations have strongly condemned Iran's strikes.
02:05They warned Tehran against targeting critical energy infrastructure.
02:09In fact, Saudi Arabia went to the extent of saying there are limits to its patience.
02:14And Iran, according to Qatar, has now crossed all red lines.
02:19Iran remains defiant, saying it will continue to hit enemy assets.
02:24Warned of far more intense escalation if the US and Israel push further.
02:30In fact, Iran's foreign minister, Sayyad Abbas Arachi, he said Iran will show zero restraint if their infrastructure was targeted
02:39again.
02:40UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned Tehran's offensive on Qatar.
02:45French President Emmanuel Macron says it's high time.
02:48A path towards dialogue and diplomacy is open.
02:51Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to the French President Emmanuel Macron.
02:54He spoke to the Crown Prince of Kuwait.
02:56He spoke to leaders of both Oman and Jordan.
02:59He condemned the strikes.
03:00He emphasised the need to ensure return to dialogue and diplomacy, to dial down tensions in the region.
03:08At the same time, government is actively exploring alternate routes to secure India's energy needs as tensions remain high.
03:17And God forbid, may go even higher in the Gulf region.
03:21Before we talk more about oil and gas on fire and the impact on the stock markets in India and
03:26across the world,
03:27let me quickly get you this report on the day's top developments.
03:38The Iran-Israel war is now ripping through West Asia's energy fields.
03:47Israel targeted Iran's Southpast gas field, the backbone of its economy, and what followed was a chain reaction.
04:01Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a direct threat.
04:06Any energy infrastructure in the Gulf could be next.
04:11Within hours, Iran struck missiles hit UAE's Habshaan Fields, Qatar's Ras Lafant, LNG hub engulfed in flames, and rockets targeted
04:22Saudi Aramco Sines.
04:27The Gulf was on fire, quite literally.
04:30The shockwaves reached Europe.
04:32Fearing a gas crisis, France stepped in.
04:36Emmanuel Macron spoke to the Qatari Emir and the U.S. President urging an immediate halt.
04:44Even the unthinkable happened.
04:47Donald Trump distanced Washington from the strike, saying that U.S. had no prior knowledge.
04:52He even hit out at Israel for targeting Southpast without America's approval.
04:57But counterclaims suggest the U.S. may have been informed.
05:03Iran doubled down, warning that origin of attacks would be reduced to ashes.
05:12This is a firm warning to those responsible for attacking parts of Iran's fuel and energy infrastructure in the South.
05:19In response, the fuel, energy and gas facilities at the source of the attack will be set ablaze and reduced
05:26to ashes at the earliest opportunity.
05:32But the biggest shift is diplomatic.
05:35Saudi Arabia hosted an emergency summit.
05:38Twelve Muslim nations, one message.
05:41Iran stands isolated.
05:45Iran will backfire, I believe, morally, and certainly, as we have stated quite clearly, we have reserved the right to
05:55take military actions if deemed necessary.
06:00And if the time comes, the leadership of the kingdom will take the necessary decision.
06:08We will not shy away from protecting our country and our economic resources.
06:19Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, ships stranded, oil flow halted, prices surging.
06:27NATO now says the Strait must reopen.
06:32When it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, I have been in contact with many allies.
06:36We all agree, of course, that the Strait has to open up again.
06:40And what I know is that allies are working together, discussing how to do that.
06:45What is the best way to do it?
06:47They are working on that collectively to find a way forward.
06:52What began as a targeted strike has ignited an all-out energy war.
06:57Oil, gas, shipping lanes, all under attack.
07:01And the world is now caught in the fallout.
07:04Bureau Report, India Today.
07:11And Israel's decision to strike at Energy Hub in Iran,
07:15and Tehran's retaliation across the region has the entire world on edge.
07:20India is impacted too.
07:23India's energy lifeline actually runs straight through the Gulf.
07:26Take Qatar's Ras Lafan, for example.
07:29Ras Lafan is one of the world's largest LNG hubs.
07:32Now, Ras Lafan accounts for about 40 to 45 percent,
07:36some say even 47 percent of India's LNG imports.
07:40Then let's talk about Saudi Arabia.
07:41The SAMRF facilities, they contribute to between 50 and 20 percent of India's crude imports.
07:48Huawei, another key supplier.
07:50Both Meena al-Ehmadi and Meena Abdullah,
07:53they've been targeted.
07:55And together, they account for close to 5 percent of India's crude imports.
07:59And then, of course, Iran's South Park's gas field has been targeted,
08:03while it provides about 75 percent of gas requirement of Iran.
08:07And this is where Iranians have been badly hit.
08:10This critical node impacts global LNG supply.
08:14Any disruption there will not just impact Iran,
08:16it will impact the region.
08:18Since Iran instantly targeted Qatar,
08:21it'll have an impact on the world.
08:23India maintains that it's exploring different avenues.
08:27Alternate options are being explored to ensure
08:29that there is no energy deficit in the country.
08:32As far as oil is concerned,
08:34India has a diversified basket,
08:36and this is something that India has been talking about for quite some time.
08:39We import crude from about 40-plus countries,
08:42but when it comes to gas,
08:44this is where the situation does remain extremely,
08:48well, critical, some would argue,
08:50and a cause for concern, say others.
08:52Listen in.
08:58And now, some of our LPG is also coming from U.S.
09:04In LNG, Qatar definitely is a very big supplier.
09:08But there are other suppliers also.
09:11For example, U.S., Australia,
09:15they are the other big suppliers as far as the LNG is concerned.
09:21And the moment oil and gas,
09:24their facilities were set on fire,
09:26the refineries were set on fire,
09:28we went beyond tanks,
09:29oil was on fire, gas was on fire,
09:32and not just literally, but also figuratively.
09:35Oil prices have surged.
09:37They've surged to staggering levels
09:39since the start of this war.
09:41So let's break this down.
09:42Let's talk about Brent, for example.
09:44Brent crude, how that's climbed.
09:46Before the war started,
09:47so on the 27th of February,
09:49the prices were around $73 a barrel.
09:53Before that, they were around $60, $65 a barrel.
09:57But within a week, by the 6th of March,
09:59from $73 a barrel,
10:02they had shot up to $94 a barrel.
10:04And then came the dramatic spike.
10:06On the 9th of March,
10:07oil touched $120 a barrel.
10:11That's the highest since this conflict started.
10:13Then, of course, when American president said
10:15that the war will not last long,
10:17there was a brief calling-off period.
10:19Prices then eased to around $113 a barrel
10:22at the start of the week.
10:23Sadly, that relief was short-lived.
10:26Following this fresh attack,
10:27and especially the targeting of oil and gas infrastructure,
10:31prices have surged once again.
10:33Right now, they're about $115 a barrel.
10:36But is there reason for India to be concerned?
10:40Because as Siddharth Zarabi,
10:43who joins us in just a moment,
10:44for India, the prices are higher.
10:47Close to $145 a barrel.
10:50And why?
10:50Siddharth Zarabi will just explain to us in a moment.
10:53I have a number of experts joining me on the show
10:56in just a moment.
10:57But before that,
10:57let me bring in Siddharth Zarabi,
11:00group editor of Business Today,
11:01and Sandeep Unnethan, senior journalist,
11:03with me on the broadcast.
11:05Siddharth, while global oil prices,
11:07and we'll talk about what Scott Peasant has said in just a moment,
11:11but specifically, India-centric.
11:13Even if global oil prices are $113 to $115 a barrel,
11:18why is it a cause for concern for India
11:20when you talk about India
11:22perhaps facing a price of $145, $47 a barrel?
11:26For the simple reason that
11:28this price that we are showing our viewers
11:30is only of one index.
11:34India buys, as we all know,
11:36crude oil from various sources,
11:37and that is called the India basket.
11:40And that India basket,
11:4117th March price is touching $147 to the barrel.
11:48So, when you look at a global benchmark,
11:50look at the Indian reality,
11:51and that Indian reality clearly
11:53that the impact on us
11:55is far higher agora.
11:57But on the gas side,
11:59the situation is far, far more worrisome
12:04because our dependence,
12:06because of the nature of the source,
12:08and the attacks that have happened
12:10on the biggest facility in Qatar.
12:1417% of the gas production capability
12:18of that facility in Qatar
12:21has been taken off,
12:22and the Qatar Energy CEO
12:24is being quoted as saying
12:26that it will take three to five years
12:28to bring back that capacity,
12:31the repairs and everything else.
12:33Not three to five weeks,
12:34not three to five months,
12:36three to five years.
12:38One impact, one strike,
12:40and it will take three to five years
12:41for things to come back to normal.
12:43Gaurav, absolutely.
12:44And, you know,
12:45our dependence on imported gas
12:48is the highest,
12:49even more than China,
12:51and the government
12:52has obviously seized of this matter
12:54and is trying its level best.
12:56We know for a fact
12:57that different sources of gas supplies
13:00are being currently explored.
13:02And one quick point,
13:03you remember those two giant tankers
13:06that brought gas to India
13:08just a couple of days back?
13:10Well, that capacity adds up
13:13to only one day.
13:14And there are more tankers on the way,
13:16but I'm just giving you these numbers
13:18for all of us to understand
13:19the severity
13:20of what is clearly
13:23a war on global energy.
13:26And India's lifeline
13:27of gas particularly
13:29is being choked
13:30at this point of time.
13:31And Sandeep,
13:33can we assume on day 20
13:35that the worst is over?
13:37Or should we be very apprehensive?
13:38Sandeep,
13:39the worst perhaps is yet to come.
13:41The worst is yet to come, Gaurav.
13:42We have seen, you know,
13:44U.S. forces moving around.
13:46We've been talking about
13:47that amphibious ready group,
13:49the USS Tripoli,
13:50which has crossed
13:51the Straits of Malacca.
13:52It's entered the Indian Ocean
13:53and it could be heading
13:54towards the Persian Gulf
13:56to fight its way
13:57through the Straits of Hormuz
13:59and capture Khark Island.
14:00That's one objective
14:01that the Americans have outlined
14:03for ending this
14:04to, you know,
14:05get leverage over Iran.
14:07That could be catastrophic
14:08because, Gaurav,
14:09we know that Khark Island
14:10is so critical to Iran
14:12that 90% of their oil and gas
14:14flows out of that one gas station.
14:17It is like a gas station for Iran.
14:19They will fight.
14:20They will possibly even destroy
14:22that thing if need be.
14:24And that is going to be catastrophic
14:25for the whole region, Gaurav.
14:27You know,
14:27and just to add very quickly
14:28to what Siddharth said,
14:29every $10 increase in oil prices,
14:33every $10 increase
14:34in the price of a barrel of oil
14:37increases our imports
14:38by $10 to $12 billion.
14:41And we are already looking at a bill
14:43bigger than our defense budget
14:45of this year,
14:46$86 billion.
14:47That's how much
14:48this war is going to cost us, Gaurav.
14:50And this is a war
14:52which practically,
14:54except perhaps Israel
14:55and the United States of America,
14:57no one wanted this war right now.
14:59I want to bring in Daniel Freid,
15:00former Diplomat and Visor Family,
15:03Distinguished Fellow
15:03at the Atlantic Council.
15:05Joins us on this broadcast,
15:06Raymond Vickery Jr.,
15:07Senior Associate with the Chair
15:09in the U.S.-India Study Policy
15:11at the Center for Strategic
15:13and National Studies,
15:14Washington, D.C.
15:15Joins us on the show.
15:17Gentlemen, welcome.
15:19I want to begin by asking you,
15:21Daniel Freid,
15:21how do you look at
15:22Scott Besson's statement saying
15:23they may unsanction Iran oil,
15:26this entire war
15:27is to weaken the regime in Iran,
15:29but just now Iranian oil
15:31tankers out at sea
15:33may be unsanctioned?
15:36My reaction is puzzlement
15:39and to agree with what you just said.
15:43The purpose of this war
15:44was to weaken the Iranian regime.
15:48And now,
15:49because of the apparently
15:51unanticipated consequences,
15:53unanticipated by the Trump administration,
15:56though not by anybody else,
15:59we seem to be
16:00in the defensive crouch,
16:02doing everything we can
16:04to mitigate the spike
16:06of the price of oil.
16:07This is not a glorious moment.
16:09It makes little sense to me
16:12to be easing pressure
16:14on Russia and Iran simultaneously,
16:18two of America's adversaries.
16:21What was the point
16:22of our operation in Iran
16:24if not to put pressure on them
16:26rather than pressure on India,
16:29which certainly does not deserve
16:32to bear the consequences
16:33of higher oil prices.
16:36So Scott Besson's statement
16:39was puzzling and troubling,
16:41and Washington,
16:43my former professional colleagues
16:46in Washington from the government
16:48are shaking their heads
16:50in astonishment.
16:53They would,
16:54because the entire world,
16:56Raymond Vickrey,
16:57is shaking its head
16:59and in puzzlement,
17:01you know,
17:01as Daniel Frye said,
17:02the entire war
17:04is being waged
17:05to weaken the regime in Iran,
17:06but now Iranian oil
17:07on the high seas
17:09may be unsanctioned.
17:10And it defies logic
17:11that this,
17:12the Strait of Hormuz
17:13would be block,
17:14would be blockaded.
17:15That wasn't war-gamed.
17:17The oil crisis
17:18or the gas crisis
17:19wasn't war-gamed.
17:20It just doesn't add up,
17:22does it?
17:23You're right.
17:24You're right.
17:26The,
17:28a more orderly
17:30U.S. administration
17:31would have had
17:32contingency plans
17:33for the Iranians
17:35blocking the Straits of Hormuz
17:36for attacking Gulf states.
17:38It would have had plans for this.
17:40That is standard
17:41operating procedure
17:43when you're planning
17:44an operation like this.
17:45Now,
17:46I have some sympathy
17:47for the administration's goal
17:49of weakening Iran.
17:50It is a malign player.
17:53It is responsible
17:54for death,
17:55destruction
17:56throughout the Middle East.
17:57It's an ugly regime.
17:59It is brutally repressive
18:01against its own people.
18:02I have no sympathy for it.
18:04But,
18:06a decent cause
18:08does not excuse
18:09war tactics.
18:11And in this case,
18:12the operational tactics
18:14have been inadequate
18:16to the task.
18:17Had the Americans
18:18gone in,
18:20hit the Iranians hard
18:21for a couple days,
18:22stopped,
18:23we would be in better shape
18:25than where we are.
18:26Right now,
18:27there's a debate
18:27about where the U.S.
18:28goes next.
18:29But,
18:30Scott Besson's
18:31announcement today
18:32suggests
18:33the Trump administration
18:35is still
18:35in a defensive mode.
18:37And I find that
18:38unfortunate
18:39because,
18:39as I said,
18:40I do have some sympathy
18:41for the objectives
18:42of weakening
18:43the Iranian regime.
18:45So,
18:46Secretary of War,
18:47so let me bring in
18:48Raymond Vickery
18:49into this conversation.
18:51Secretary of War,
18:53Pete Hexet,
18:54he said,
18:557,000 targets acquired.
18:57Crystal clear
18:58aims in war.
19:00Our Secretary of War,
19:02Pete Hexet,
19:03and Treasury Secretary,
19:05Scott Besson,
19:06not on the same page.
19:08One is pounding Iran,
19:09the other is removing
19:10sanctions from Iranian oil.
19:12Raymond Vickery.
19:14Well,
19:14thanks very much
19:15for having me
19:16and allowing me
19:16to comment on this.
19:17You know,
19:18I think you've put
19:19your finger
19:19on
19:21a very large part
19:23of the problem
19:24just by calling
19:25Pete Hexet
19:26the Secretary of War.
19:28He's really,
19:30in U.S. law,
19:30the Secretary of Defense.
19:32And defense
19:33is different
19:34from viewing yourself
19:36as a secretary
19:39for war.
19:42It is true
19:43that if you're going
19:44to wage war,
19:46the goal ought to be
19:48peace and prosperity.
19:51You can't wage war
19:52without having a strategy,
19:55without having partners
19:56that you cooperate with,
19:59and having principles
20:00upon which you're acting.
20:02Unfortunately,
20:03the Trump administration
20:05in this regard
20:06has none of these.
20:08It's basically
20:09an approach
20:10of my way
20:11or the highway
20:12that Mike makes right,
20:14and that we can
20:16wage war
20:18without consequence
20:20to us
20:21by aerial bombing,
20:23and not having
20:26and not having
20:27a real thought
20:28as to what happens
20:31in retaliation
20:33for the resort
20:35to violence.
20:36You know,
20:36we've had a problem,
20:38and the world
20:39has had a problem,
20:40particularly with Iran
20:41for 47 years.
20:43And what's the reason
20:45that we haven't
20:46resorted to violence
20:48before?
20:48It's because
20:49the consequences,
20:51which we're now seeing
20:53outweigh
20:54and have outweighed
20:56the benefits
20:57of being able
20:58to attack
20:59this regime.
21:00So this is a very,
21:02very difficult situation,
21:03and you're right,
21:04the right hand
21:06doesn't seem to know
21:07what the left hand
21:08is doing
21:09in regard
21:10to the United States
21:13action here.
21:14And the consequences
21:16are devastating
21:17for great democracies
21:19like India,
21:20much less Japan
21:22and throughout the world.
21:24We need to be able
21:26to step back
21:27and hopefully
21:27saner heads
21:28are going to be able
21:30to rein in
21:32this egocentric approach
21:35of the Donald J. Trump
21:36administration
21:37and him personally.
21:39So we will talk about
21:42what next
21:43in just a moment.
21:44But what now
21:45is something
21:46that I want to focus on
21:47in this report.
21:49The economic fallout
21:50of this war
21:50on day 20,
21:51it's becoming visible
21:52to the world
21:53and no one's appreciating it.
21:55It's unevenly spread
21:56across the world.
21:57Countries
21:57heavily dependent
21:58on West Asia energy,
22:00they've taken
22:01the biggest hit.
22:03Countries like
22:04the United States
22:04of America,
22:05the world's largest
22:07oil and gas producer,
22:08by and large as of now,
22:09as far as energy
22:11requirements are concerned,
22:12they may be insulated.
22:13But as far as
22:14the cost of war
22:14is concerned,
22:15we'll get you this report,
22:17how they're seeking
22:17$200 billion
22:19to wage war.
22:21Will it pass muster?
22:23First,
22:24this is Pentagon
22:24seeking more money
22:25from the White House.
22:26The White House
22:26would have to
22:27take it through
22:28the Congress.
22:29We'll talk about that.
22:30But the impact
22:30that's being felt
22:31on energy prices.
22:32So Brent crude,
22:33we just told you,
22:34has surged past
22:35the $113 barrel mark.
22:36That's driving prices up.
22:39There's escalation
22:41in prices,
22:42there's tension,
22:42fears of supply chain
22:44disruptions.
22:45Then comes the huge
22:47issue of shortages.
22:48Bangladesh,
22:49for example,
22:49in India's neighborhood,
22:51it's already started
22:52fuel rationing.
22:54Thailand is reporting
22:55supply shortages.
22:57Several countries
22:57are shifting
22:58to four-day-a-week work
23:00to conserve energy.
23:01The impact is equally
23:02severe in the gas market.
23:04LNG prices,
23:05for example,
23:06they've surged
23:07across Europe and Asia.
23:08Energy-intensive sectors
23:10are under
23:11considerable stress.
23:13Finally,
23:14the pressure
23:14is now also
23:15showing on currencies.
23:17The Indian rupee
23:18has hit an all-time low
23:19against the US dollar.
23:20Across the world,
23:21currencies
23:22of energy-importing nations,
23:24they are weakening
23:25very rapidly.
23:27Now,
23:27let me come to
23:28that big question
23:29on what next.
23:30This is day 20.
23:31Will this escalate?
23:33Will the United States
23:34put boots on ground?
23:36What happens
23:37if the war
23:38were to end now?
23:39Of course,
23:40that's the best-case scenario.
23:42So,
23:42if the war
23:43were to end now,
23:44or hopefully,
23:46hopefully,
23:46as President Trump
23:47indicated,
23:48four weeks,
23:49maximum six weeks.
23:51What happens
23:52if this war
23:52were to end
23:52in a couple of weeks,
23:53in two months,
23:54or if it goes
23:55beyond six months?
23:57How will that
23:58impact the world?
23:59Let's talk about
23:59India, for example.
24:00So, let me try.
24:01We've spoken
24:02to some analysts
24:03and we're looking
24:03at numbers.
24:04Best-case scenario,
24:05an immediate ceasefire
24:07within weeks.
24:08Oil prices
24:09hopefully could stabilize
24:10around $115 a barrel.
24:12You could still
24:13control that.
24:15But even then,
24:15India would face
24:16a spike in inflation.
24:18If this conflict
24:19continues for the next
24:20one or two months,
24:22then the impact
24:23becomes far more severe.
24:25Oil,
24:26as some analysts argue,
24:27could surge
24:28past the $150 a barrel.
24:30there are those
24:30who say
24:31it could surge
24:32even higher.
24:33$175 a barrel,
24:34maybe $200.
24:35That would mean
24:35the rupee
24:36weakens even further,
24:37import costs
24:38will go up higher,
24:39sharp inflation,
24:40and there'll be
24:40pressure across
24:41the Indian economy
24:42or economies
24:44of the developing
24:44countries.
24:45Worst-case scenario.
24:46Worst-case scenario.
24:48And God forbid,
24:48should that happen?
24:49Should this be
24:50a prolonged war
24:51lasting over
24:51three months
24:52and more?
24:54Then the consequences
24:55will impact
24:56the whole world
24:57very adversely.
24:58And Siddharth,
24:58I want to bring you in,
24:59oil prices could skyrocket
25:00to beyond $200 a barrel.
25:02That could raise
25:03the prospect
25:04of global recession.
25:06In India,
25:06it would mean
25:07much lower economic growth,
25:08higher fuel prices,
25:10costs on,
25:10you know,
25:11price pressure
25:11on everything.
25:12The longer
25:13this conflict drags,
25:14Siddharth,
25:15deeper is the economic pain
25:17for the world,
25:18Siddharth.
25:19Absolutely.
25:20Look at the numbers.
25:23Globally,
25:24just before
25:25the new year
25:26came in,
25:27in December,
25:28there were estimates
25:29that crude oil
25:31would be benchmarked
25:32around a price
25:33of $50 to $55
25:35to the barrel.
25:36Look at what
25:37has happened to Brent
25:38and look at
25:38what is happening
25:39to a major purchaser
25:41and an import-dependent
25:42economy like India.
25:43We are now
25:44headed closer
25:44to $150.
25:45So is $200
25:46a real possibility?
25:48Absolutely.
25:49Why is that?
25:50Despite
25:51Farsi sweet crude,
25:53which is what
25:53the Iranian crude oil
25:55grade is called,
25:56if that were to be put
25:57on the market,
25:59that's around
26:00140 million barrels.
26:03But given consumption,
26:05you will see
26:06that also getting
26:07exhausted
26:07and there will be
26:08a scramble
26:09for that kind of crude
26:10just as we have seen
26:11in the high seas,
26:12a scramble for tankers,
26:13some of which
26:14we have managed
26:15to divert our way,
26:16possibly paying
26:17through our nose
26:18for it
26:19given the elevated
26:19prices.
26:20And look at
26:22what Qatar Energy
26:23is saying.
26:25All of this means
26:26that the energy
26:27shock that is
26:28rippling across
26:29at least three dozen
26:30industries
26:30in a country
26:32like India as well
26:33is now
26:34here to stay,
26:35if not permanently,
26:37but for
26:38the foreseeable
26:39future.
26:40Because supplies
26:41and prices
26:42are not going
26:43to get recalibrated
26:44to a pre-
26:46you know,
26:4628th February
26:47kind of scenario.
26:48and those impacts
26:50got a
26:51the second order,
26:53third order impact
26:54will be very,
26:55very significant
26:55including
26:56for the central
26:57government's budget
26:58in India.
27:00Okay.
27:00And Sandeep,
27:01if America
27:03has a marine
27:05expeditionary unit
27:06that's now
27:07entering the
27:08Indian Ocean region
27:09from the Okinawa
27:10base in Japan
27:11and headed
27:12towards the
27:13Strait of Hormuz
27:14or the Persian Gulf,
27:16the worst is yet
27:17to come,
27:18Sandeep.
27:18Absolutely,
27:19Gaurav.
27:19And you know,
27:20this is the US,
27:21it needs leverage
27:21over Iran
27:22to end this conflict
27:23on terms
27:24favourable
27:25to the United States.
27:26It wants to
27:27grab some
27:28valuable piece
27:29of territory,
27:30some military
27:30objective
27:31and Khark
27:31appears to be
27:32that.
27:33Either it's
27:33Khark Island
27:33or it's
27:34several other
27:35islands
27:35in the Straits
27:36of Hormuz
27:36in the Persian Gulf
27:37would be very
27:38valuable.
27:39But this would
27:39be a limited
27:40boots on the
27:41ground
27:42operation,
27:43Gaurav.
27:43But we don't
27:44know how this
27:44would play out
27:45because you
27:46assume that
27:46Iranians will
27:47not attack.
27:48Of course,
27:48they will.
27:49You just saw
27:49that with the
27:50minute their
27:51gas at
27:52South Paz
27:53was hit.
27:53Within a few
27:54hours,
27:54they launched
27:55an attack
27:55on Qatar.
27:57That tells you
27:57that the Iranian
27:58command and
27:59control structure
28:00is still intact
28:01even after 20
28:02days of some
28:03of the most
28:03intense bombardment
28:05of the 21st
28:06century,
28:06Gaurav.
28:07So the worst
28:08is yet to
28:08come,
28:08Daniel Frye.
28:09Is there also
28:10your reading
28:10this marine
28:11expeditionary
28:12unit that's
28:12en route to
28:14the Persian
28:14Gulf?
28:15If they were
28:16to try and
28:17take the Khark
28:18Island and Iran
28:19has just put out
28:20a video just a
28:20short while back
28:21saying we are
28:22ready,
28:23words to the
28:24effect that there
28:24will be a bloodbath,
28:26we will protect
28:26Khark with
28:27whatever we
28:27have.
28:28Would that
28:28be unmitigating
28:30yet another
28:31disaster?
28:34I'm not a
28:35military person,
28:36but landing
28:38an expeditionary
28:40force on the
28:41other side of
28:42a narrow
28:42strait that we
28:44don't entirely
28:45control would
28:46not be my
28:47first choice.
28:48A marine
28:49unit there
28:50might have to
28:51be supplied
28:51by air.
28:52It would be
28:53in range,
28:54Khark Island
28:54is in range
28:55of shore
28:56based munitions.
28:58We would
28:59try to take
29:00them out,
29:00but a lot
29:01of the
29:01drones or
29:02artillery could
29:03be put in
29:04place,
29:04fired,
29:05and then
29:05removed.
29:06So that
29:06would not
29:07be my
29:07first choice
29:09of a
29:09military
29:10target.
29:10I do
29:11want to
29:11point out
29:12something
29:12though.
29:14This late
29:14last night,
29:15President Trump
29:17issued a
29:18tweet on
29:19Truth Social
29:21where he
29:22criticized the
29:24Israeli
29:24attack on
29:25the Iranian
29:26gas field
29:28and suggested
29:29that that was
29:30not a good
29:31idea.
29:32If you read
29:32that, it
29:33almost reads
29:35like an
29:35invitation to
29:36begin de-escalation
29:38or at least
29:39limit attacks.
29:41That was
29:42curious.
29:43I don't know
29:44whether it would
29:44be followed
29:45up.
29:46It indeed
29:47was if he's
29:48sending out a
29:48signal to
29:49de-escalate,
29:50but Raymond
29:51Vickery, is he's
29:52sending out
29:52conflicting signals?
29:53And if I
29:54may, I
29:55just a couple
29:56of days ago
29:57spoke to
29:57former US
29:59national security
30:00advisor,
30:02Ambassador John
30:03Bolton, who
30:04seemed to
30:04indicate that
30:05once you've
30:05started a
30:06mission, you
30:07must complete it
30:08because the
30:09wounded regime
30:10in power is
30:11even more
30:12dangerous than
30:13the regime
30:13that was there
30:15originally.
30:15Do you buy
30:16that?
30:17Do you agree
30:17with it?
30:17That once the
30:18United States
30:19has started a
30:19mission, they
30:20have to follow
30:21it through
30:21to its
30:22logical
30:22conclusion?
30:24Well, I
30:25think...
30:26Raymond Vickery
30:27and then
30:27Daniel, to
30:28you.
30:29Raymond Vickery,
30:30go first,
30:30sir.
30:30I think the
30:32length of
30:32this war
30:33really does
30:34not really
30:35lie with
30:37what is
30:37actually
30:38happening in
30:40Iran, strangely
30:41enough.
30:42What it has
30:42to do with
30:43is President
30:46Trump's view
30:47of his
30:47political
30:49position.
30:49so long
30:51as he
30:51believes
30:52that he
30:53can, in
30:55essence, fix
30:56the midterm
30:58elections
30:58through the
31:00redistricting
31:01program, which
31:02he's tried in
31:03Texas and
31:04other places,
31:05that he can
31:06get his
31:07act, save
31:08act, through
31:09to limit
31:11participation
31:12in elections
31:14by requiring
31:15proof of
31:16citizenship
31:16and doing
31:18away with
31:19absentee
31:20voters.
31:21If he
31:21thinks that
31:22he can
31:23retain his
31:24power and
31:25go forward,
31:26then he is
31:28going to go
31:28forward, as
31:30you have
31:30indicated, and
31:31as Ambassador
31:34Bolton did,
31:35through with
31:36it.
31:37But there
31:39are checks
31:40and balances
31:41which are still
31:42here, have
31:43not kicked in
31:44yet, one of
31:45which is, is
31:47he going to
31:47get the $200
31:48billion out
31:49of Congress?
31:50So far, the
31:52answer is
31:54up in the
31:55air.
31:56The Republican
31:57people haven't
31:59kicked in.
32:00So I think
32:01that you
32:02miss the
32:04point when
32:04you try to
32:05analyze Donald
32:07Trump's actions
32:09in a logical
32:10and usual
32:11way, and the
32:12way to really
32:13look at it is
32:14what does his
32:15ego demand, and
32:16what does he
32:17think he can
32:17do?
32:18And that's
32:19what's going to
32:20limit this.
32:21Okay, Daniel
32:22Frey, you want
32:23to respond to
32:23this, that a
32:24dangerous regime
32:25in power would
32:26be more
32:27dangerous than
32:27the original
32:28regime in
32:29power.
32:29So that's why
32:30America must
32:31now take this
32:32to its logical
32:33conclusion, and
32:34if I may, Iran
32:35has already
32:36indicated that
32:37the Strait of
32:38Hormuz, every
32:39ship that
32:40passes, whether
32:41Saudi Arabia or
32:42Oman or
32:43Qatar or
32:44Kuwait, they
32:45must pay Iran
32:47if they have to
32:48go through, or
32:49words to that
32:49effect.
32:51Would these
32:52other countries
32:52want that, or
32:54they too would
32:54want America
32:56to complete
32:57the job?
33:00John Bolton
33:01is a very
33:01smart man.
33:03I respect
33:04his argument.
33:06Fred Kemp, the
33:07president of the
33:08Atlanta Council
33:08where I work, has
33:09made a similar
33:10argument, that
33:11is, finish the
33:12job.
33:13The question I
33:15have is not
33:15whether finishing
33:17the job is a
33:18good idea, I
33:19think it is a
33:19good idea, if
33:21it is achievable
33:22within our
33:24means and given
33:25the other
33:25pressures that are
33:26arising.
33:27What does
33:28finishing the
33:28job mean?
33:29Regime change?
33:31Weakening the
33:32regime so that it
33:33is completely
33:34impotent, it
33:35can't attack us?
33:37Those may not
33:38be achievable, and
33:40that space for
33:43finishing the job
33:44may be easier to
33:45articulate than
33:46actually accomplish.
33:48As I said, I have
33:49no sympathy for the
33:51Iranian regime and a
33:52lot of understanding
33:53for John Bolton and
33:55Fred Kemp's argument.
33:57The question is
33:58whether the U.S.
33:59will support an
34:02operation if it drags
34:04on, and can you
34:05accomplish such an
34:06operation through
34:07air and very
34:09limited ground
34:10only?
34:11There is no
34:12appetite in the
34:13United States for a
34:14major ground war in
34:15the Middle East.
34:16I don't know what
34:18appetite there is for
34:19a prolonged air
34:20campaign.
34:21So I appreciate
34:22the argument.
34:23I wish I thought
34:25it was more
34:25practical.
34:27Sandeep, the aim
34:29on day one
34:30articulated by
34:31America was to
34:33weaken the regime,
34:34ensure it's no
34:35longer a threat to
34:37either American
34:38interests in the
34:39region or the
34:39world or beyond
34:40its borders.
34:41Today's Secretary
34:42of War Pete
34:43Hexed just a
34:44short while back
34:44said 7,000 targets
34:46have been taken
34:46out, 7,000
34:47operations have
34:48been launched.
34:49The largest
34:49number of
34:50operations undertaken
34:51so far would be
34:52tonight.
34:53Does this indicate
34:54that America had
34:55an aim and right
34:56now they continue
34:57to maintain that
34:58aim and can they
34:59achieve that aim
34:59by four to six
35:02weeks?
35:03Well Gaurav, you
35:04know this is a
35:04bizarre kind of
35:05a conflict.
35:06I mean if you
35:06look at it it's
35:07one of the most
35:08bizarre conflicts
35:09of the 21st
35:10century where the
35:11American aims and
35:12objectives seem to
35:13be constantly
35:13shifting.
35:14We've seen
35:15shifting goalposts
35:16right from the
35:16first day of the
35:17war where the
35:18objectives were to
35:19weaken the
35:19regime,
35:20decapitation,
35:21regime change,
35:22all of these
35:23things were to
35:23have been done
35:24from the air and
35:25this is exactly
35:26what we seem to
35:27be straying into
35:27as the scholar
35:29Robert Pepp has
35:30said that we
35:31seem to be
35:31straying into
35:32this munitions
35:33trap, smart
35:33munitions trap
35:34that if you
35:35bomb 5,000
35:36targets, 10,000
35:37targets you will
35:38achieve victory
35:38by the end of
35:39day 20 or
35:40day 30 and
35:41this is exactly
35:42the kind of
35:43trap that
35:43United States
35:44has been in
35:46Vietnam where
35:46high body counts
35:48were used to
35:49show that they
35:50were winning the
35:51war whereas the
35:51results on the
35:52ground were shown
35:53otherwise.
35:54And this is not
35:55to say that the
35:56United States is
35:56going to be
35:57defeated militarily
35:58or something but
35:58it is to show
35:59that the fact is
36:00that they went
36:01into this conflict
36:03completely unprepared
36:06not anticipating
36:07the kind of
36:07consequences that
36:09the fact that
36:09the adversary
36:10that is Iran
36:11had agency and
36:12that it would
36:12horizontally expand
36:14the conflict and
36:15target everybody
36:16in the region
36:17GCC countries
36:17including us.
36:18We are all
36:19paying the price
36:20for this war
36:21that we did not
36:22have any role
36:23in starting
36:26Gaurav.
36:26So I will
36:27just come to
36:28the cost that
36:28we are paying
36:29for this war
36:30you and I
36:32as people who
36:33have absolutely
36:34nothing to do
36:34with that war
36:35but for a
36:36moment permit
36:37me another
36:37question and
36:38Raymond Vickery
36:40we are now
36:41in a situation
36:42where this war
36:44is going on
36:45with no clear
36:46end game
36:46and it defies
36:47logic because
36:48this is the
36:48only job that
36:49CENTCOM has
36:51US Central
36:52Command looks
36:53at the region
36:54looks at Iran
36:55as an enemy
36:56for 47
36:56years it
36:57just defies
36:58logic they
36:59wouldn't have
36:59war gamed
37:00Iran's capabilities
37:01both Israel
37:03and CENTCOM
37:03wouldn't have
37:04war gamed the
37:04kind of missiles
37:05they had
37:06kamikaze drones
37:07they have
37:08they claim 90%
37:09of drones have
37:10been taken out
37:1190% of missile
37:12launch capabilities
37:13manufacture capabilities
37:14have been taken
37:15out 10% that
37:17remains if we
37:18were to take
37:18secretary of war
37:19at his face value
37:20how long would
37:21in your view
37:22would it take
37:22to take out
37:22the remaining
37:2310% how long
37:24will this war
37:24last
37:26well I think
37:27that the question
37:28is what does
37:29finish the job
37:30mean does it
37:31mean taking out
37:32the remainder
37:3210% or does
37:35it mean something
37:36else in terms
37:37of regime change
37:38does it mean
37:39getting the
37:40enriched fuel
37:42out of there
37:43the problem
37:44is there is
37:45no definition
37:46of what the
37:47finished the job
37:49is at this
37:50point and
37:51until you get
37:52that you can't
37:53decide whether
37:54or not taking
37:55out more
37:5510% actually
37:58is within
38:00the range
38:00of finishing
38:01the job
38:02so you don't
38:03have a strategy
38:04you don't have
38:05any partners
38:05you don't have
38:07any principles
38:07here it's time
38:10for the great
38:10democracies
38:11India Japan
38:13Western Europe
38:14other to step
38:16forward in
38:17and try to
38:18rein in
38:19this irrational
38:21approach to
38:22international affairs
38:23it's not the
38:24question of
38:25whether or not
38:26violence can be
38:27used sometime
38:29the question is
38:30how when
38:31and with what
38:32consequence
38:32and until we
38:34define that
38:35we're just all
38:36speculating
38:37and it'll go on
38:38so long as
38:39Donald Trump
38:40feels that
38:41it's feeding
38:42his position
38:43as a great
38:43man
38:44well will
38:46he get
38:46the 200
38:47billion dollars
38:48that America
38:48now seeks
38:49to carry
38:49this war
38:50forward
38:50when we
38:51were talking
38:52about
38:52consequences
38:53and consequences
38:53on India
38:54the war
38:55isn't just
38:55rattling
38:56global energy
38:56markets
38:57it's triggered
38:57a full-blown
38:59bloodbath
39:00on Dalal
39:01street
39:01and here
39:01is how
39:02Sensex
39:03reacted
39:03to this
39:04conflict
39:05when it
39:05began
39:05and now
39:07so before
39:07the war
39:0827th of
39:09February
39:10the Sensex
39:11was at
39:1281,287
39:15and just
39:16look at that
39:162nd of
39:17March
39:17when the
39:18first trading
39:19day after
39:19the strikes
39:20it slipped
39:20to 80,239
39:22the decline
39:23then deepened
39:23on the 6th
39:24of March
39:24as strikes
39:25intensified
39:25the index
39:26then fell
39:27to 78,919
39:28by the 9th
39:29of March
39:30it dropped
39:30further to
39:3177,566
39:32and then
39:34came that
39:34sharp sell-off
39:35on the 13th
39:36of March
39:36the Sensex
39:37plunged
39:3774,564
39:39but the
39:40worst
39:41was yet
39:42to come
39:42today
39:43on the
39:45back of
39:45a series
39:46of strikes
39:46on energy
39:47infrastructure
39:47late last
39:48night
39:48and early
39:49this morning
39:49in the
39:50Gulf
39:50region
39:50the
39:50Sensex
39:51fell
39:512,500
39:52points
39:52ending
39:52the
39:53day
39:53just
39:53a little
39:54over
39:5474,000
39:56mark
39:56and this
39:57is where
39:58the big
39:58question
39:59is
39:59will it
40:00remain
40:00in
40:01tailspin
40:01and
40:02Siddharth
40:02markets
40:03are desperate
40:05for stability
40:06and predictability
40:07neither
40:08you know
40:09as far
40:10as this
40:10war is
40:11concerned
40:11we don't
40:12know
40:12when things
40:12will
40:12stabilize
40:13and
40:13Donald
40:14Trump
40:14and
40:15Iran
40:15both
40:16equally
40:16unpredictable
40:17well
40:18allow me
40:19to bring
40:19in a
40:20statement
40:21that I
40:21have just
40:21received
40:22this is a
40:22joint
40:23statement
40:23issued
40:24by the
40:24leaders
40:24of the
40:25United
40:25Kingdom
40:25France
40:26Germany
40:26Italy
40:27the
40:27Netherlands
40:28and
40:28Japan
40:28on the
40:29Strait of
40:29Hormuz
40:30Gaurav
40:30this is
40:31broken
40:31some time
40:32ago
40:32I have
40:33the
40:33actual
40:33statement
40:34issued
40:34by the
40:34United
40:35Kingdom
40:35and
40:36after
40:37condemnations
40:37they are
40:38now saying
40:40that we
40:40express our
40:41readiness
40:42to contribute
40:43to appropriate
40:43efforts to
40:44ensure safe
40:45passage through
40:46the strait
40:47we welcome
40:48the commitment
40:48of nations
40:49who are
40:50engaging in
40:51preparatory
40:52planning
40:53so this
40:53is the
40:54first time
40:54that these
40:55nations
40:55have
40:56responded
40:56as you
40:58can see
40:58from the
40:59nature
40:59of that
41:00cautious
41:00one
41:00paragraph
41:01that I
41:01have just
41:02read
41:02through a
41:03statement
41:04that is
41:04almost a
41:05dozen
41:05plus
41:06paragraphs
41:07they end
41:08by saying
41:08that maritime
41:09security
41:09and freedom
41:10of navigation
41:11benefit
41:11all countries
41:13we call
41:13on all
41:13states
41:14to respect
41:14international
41:15law
41:16and uphold
41:17the principles
41:18we will
41:18take other
41:19steps
41:19to stabilize
41:20energy markets
41:21including
41:22working with
41:23certain producing
41:23nations to
41:24increase
41:24output
41:25so why
41:26did I
41:26bring this
41:27in
41:27because this
41:28is very
41:28very significant
41:29I imagine
41:30this would
41:31have a
41:31salutary
41:31impact
41:32on the
41:33markets
41:33when they
41:34open
41:34India
41:34time
41:34tomorrow
41:35morning
41:35because
41:36remember
41:37the blood
41:37bar that
41:38you were
41:38referring to
41:39that happened
41:39on the
41:40Lull street
41:40today
41:40was primarily
41:42on account
41:42of that
41:43unprecedented
41:44attack
41:45on the
41:46parts field
41:46and the
41:47consequent
41:48reactions
41:48which
41:49basically
41:49put 20%
41:50of global
41:51gas supplies
41:52under threat
41:53and if
41:54this joint
41:55statement
41:55is the
41:55precursor
41:56to something
41:57more in
41:58terms of
41:58taking control
42:00of the
42:00state of
42:00hormones
42:01I think
42:01in some
42:02days
42:02once that
42:03action
42:03starts getting
42:04implemented
42:05successfully
42:05you will
42:06have some
42:07sort of
42:07salutary
42:08impact
42:08on the
42:09nervous
42:09market
42:09gentlemen
42:10I have
42:10breaking
42:10news
42:10coming
42:11in
42:11I want
42:11to
42:11thank
42:11you
42:11for
42:11joining
42:12me
42:12on this
42:12part
42:12of the
42:12show
42:13there's
42:13breaking
42:13news
42:13coming
42:13in
42:14Pakistan
42:14continues
42:15to be
42:16exposed
42:16on the
42:17world stage
42:18a day
42:19after the
42:19United States
42:20termed Pakistan
42:21as the biggest
42:23nuclear threat
42:24to the United
42:25States
42:25India
42:26has laid
42:28bare the
42:28truth
42:29about Pakistan
42:30a state
42:30sponsor of
42:31radical
42:31Islamist
42:32terror
42:32clearly saying
42:34Pakistan
42:35cannot be
42:36trusted
42:36the
42:37Ministry of
42:38External
42:38Affairs
42:38spokesperson
42:39Randeer
42:39Jaiswal
42:40additional
42:41secretary
42:41in the
42:42ministry
42:42said
42:42as far
42:43as
42:43Pakistan
42:44is
42:44concerned
42:44they have
42:45had a
42:46history
42:46of
42:47clandestine
42:47nuclear
42:48proliferation
42:49such
42:49statements
42:50once again
42:51make it
42:51clear to
42:51the world
42:52as to
42:53what kind
42:53of
42:53danger
42:54they
42:54pose
42:55and the
42:56dangers
42:56their
42:56clandestine
42:57nuclear
42:57operations
42:58pose
42:59and this
43:00comes in
43:01response
43:01to the
43:02United States
43:02Director
43:03National
43:04Intelligence
43:04Tulsi
43:05Gabbard
43:05labelling
43:06Pakistan
43:06as one
43:07of the
43:07biggest
43:08nuclear
43:08threats
43:08to the
43:09United
43:09States
43:09she spoke
43:10in detail
43:11about how
43:11Pakistan
43:12is now
43:12one of
43:13the few
43:14nations
43:14that's
43:15researching
43:15and developing
43:16nuclear
43:16missiles
43:17that puts
43:17the United
43:18States
43:19within their
43:20range
43:20why is
43:22India
43:22worried
43:23why is
43:25India
43:25worried
43:26why is
43:26the United
43:27States
43:27worried
43:27both these
43:28countries
43:28worried about
43:29Pakistan's
43:30nuclear
43:30program
43:30let me
43:31explain this
43:32to you
43:32it's because
43:33Pakistan
43:33is the
43:34nuclear
43:35Walmart
43:35that's
43:36right
43:36Pakistan
43:37is
43:37infamous
43:38for
43:39spreading
43:39nuclear
43:41illegally
43:42spreading
43:43nuclear
43:44information
43:45internationally
43:46between
43:461980
43:47and 2000
43:47Abdul
43:48Kadir
43:48Khan
43:49often
43:50referred
43:51to
43:51the
43:51father
43:52of
43:52the
43:52atomic
43:52bomb
43:53he was
43:53actually
43:54the
43:54nuclear
43:54black
43:54marketer
43:55he was
43:56the one
43:56who was
43:56running
43:57the
43:57nuclear
43:57Walmart
43:58he was
43:58found to
43:59have
43:59provided
43:59nuclear
43:59enrichment
44:00technology
44:00to
44:01countries
44:01like
44:01North
44:02Korea
44:02Iran
44:03and
44:04Libya
44:04in fact
44:04Pakistan
44:05Air Force
44:05C-130
44:06look at
44:07the irony
44:08you had
44:09US made
44:10Pakistan
44:11Air Force
44:12C-130
44:13aircraft
44:13carrying
44:14nuclear
44:15material
44:16to Iran
44:17and Libya
44:18from Pakistan
44:19the world
44:20was watching
44:21but let's
44:21listen in
44:22to
44:22Randhir
44:23Jaiswal
44:23the
44:24spokesperson
44:24for the
44:24Ministry of
44:25External Affairs
44:25on
44:26Tulsi
44:26Gabbard
44:27stay
44:38An
44:54American
44:54mercenary
44:55and six
44:55UK
44:56nationals
44:56they were
44:57taken into
44:57custody
44:58they're
44:58apparently
44:58a part
44:59of a
44:59major
44:59anti-India
45:01plot
45:01India
45:02today
45:02has learned
45:02key details
45:03about the
45:04alleged
45:04mastermind
45:05Matthew
45:05Van Dyke
45:06NIA
45:06sources have told
45:07India
45:07today
45:07Van Dyke
45:08operated under
45:09an alias
45:10the hitman
45:10what was the
45:11hitman doing
45:12in India
45:13there are some
45:13possible
45:14anti-India
45:15his links
45:16to some
45:16anti-India
45:17networks
45:17sources say
45:18Van Dyke
45:19is a mercenary
45:19he's a military
45:20trainer
45:21has a long
45:22history of
45:22operating in
45:23global conflict
45:23zones
45:24often aligning
45:25himself with
45:26armed rebel
45:27outfits against
45:28governments
45:29now investigators
45:29also suspect
45:30his involvement
45:31in training
45:32modules and
45:32covert operations
45:33similar to
45:34those seen in
45:35regions in
45:36Venezuela
45:37Myanmar
45:37Myanmar and
45:38that's raised
45:38concerns about
45:39the operations
45:39of these
45:40international
45:40networks in
45:41and around
45:42India
45:42we get you
45:43more in
45:43this report
45:50a major
45:51national security
45:52breakthrough
45:53India has
45:54cracked down
45:54on a suspected
45:55international
45:56mercenary
45:56network
46:00matthew van dyke
46:01matthew van dyke
46:01an american
46:01operative
46:02with a history
46:03in global
46:03conflict zones
46:04has been
46:05arrested
46:05along with
46:06six ukrainians
46:10niso
46:11say van dyke
46:12is the key
46:13mastermind
46:13behind a
46:14covert
46:14operation
46:15he has been
46:16previously
46:16linked to
46:17many international
46:18conflicts
46:18and military
46:19operations
46:20his objective
46:21has been
46:21to trade
46:22local
46:22populations
46:23in modern
46:24warfare
46:24including
46:25drones
46:25and combat
46:26tactics
46:27investigators
46:28suspect
46:29Indian
46:29territory
46:29was being
46:30used
46:30as a
46:31transit
46:31corridor
46:32with
46:32possible
46:33links
46:33to
46:34networks
46:34operating
46:35in and
46:35around
46:35the
46:36northeast
46:36including
46:37anti-india
46:38and band
46:38groups
46:40this has
46:41been seen
46:41as a
46:42serious
46:42attempt
46:42to build
46:43capabilities
46:44on Indian
46:44soil
46:45with
46:45cross-border
46:46linkages
46:47and
46:47strategic
46:48implications
46:48van dyke
46:49is no
46:50ordinary
46:50individual
46:54an american
46:55mercenary
46:55and warzone
46:56operator
46:57he has fought
46:58in libya
46:58taken part
46:59in operations
47:00against
47:00isis
47:01in iraq
47:01and trained
47:02forces
47:03in ukraine
47:03as founder
47:04of sons
47:05of liberty
47:06international
47:06he has
47:07specialized
47:08in conflict
47:08training
47:09and counter
47:09drone
47:10warfare
47:10the government
47:11says the
47:11probe is on
47:12ma confirmed
47:13consular access
47:14requests are
47:15being processed
47:16as per law
47:18as you know
47:19that this is a
47:20legal matter
47:20the relevant
47:21goi agencies
47:22are investigating
47:23it presently
47:24we have
47:25received
47:26consular access
47:27requests
47:27and these
47:28will be addressed
47:29keeping in mind
47:31the legal
47:32requirements
47:32that are
47:33involved
47:33in this
47:33particular
47:34case
47:39the united
47:39states
47:40has taken
47:40note
47:41saying it
47:41is a bear
47:42of the rest
47:42and is
47:43closely
47:43monitoring
47:44the situation
47:44but ukraine
47:46has denied
47:46any role
47:47its embassy
47:48in india
47:48has rejected
47:49all allegations
47:50insisting
47:51it does not
47:52support
47:52terror activities
47:53even as
47:54it called
47:55for the rights
47:56of the detained
47:56ukrainians
47:57to be protected
48:00from global
48:01battlefields
48:02to indian soil
48:03this crackdown
48:04exposes a deeper
48:05dangerous network
48:07and signals a
48:08clear message
48:09india will not
48:10allow its territory
48:11to be used
48:11for covert operations
48:15bureau report
48:17india today
48:24i want to quickly
48:25bring into this
48:26conversation
48:27left general
48:27pradeep
48:28chandra nair
48:29former director
48:30general
48:30assam rifle
48:30someone who
48:31served
48:31extensively
48:32in india's
48:34northeast
48:34general nair
48:35what do you
48:36make of the
48:36arrest of
48:37van dyke
48:37and six
48:38ukrainians
48:39and the
48:39fact that
48:40their history
48:41goes to
48:42being in
48:43areas
48:43where
48:44they've
48:45led to
48:45rebellions
48:46against
48:47the state
48:49you already
48:50firstly thank you
48:51for having me
48:52over and
48:54let me start
48:55out by telling
48:55you that
48:56we need to
48:57go beyond
48:58just focusing
48:59on matthew
48:59van dyke
49:00go back a
49:01little in
49:01time
49:02and i'll tell
49:03you from the
49:04experiences
49:04that i had
49:05while i was
49:06the director
49:07general
49:07assam rifles
49:082021 february
49:09is when you
49:10the coup
49:10happened in
49:11manmar
49:13and you
49:14have the
49:15national unity
49:16government
49:16coming up
49:17two months
49:17later
49:17and the
49:18pdf people
49:19defense force
49:19the militia
49:20that is
49:21fighting
49:21the tamadau
49:22the junta
49:23manmar army
49:25from 2021
49:26may june
49:27onwards
49:28in the month
49:29of august
49:30for the first
49:31time across
49:32mezurum border
49:32in some
49:33very remote
49:34villages of
49:35manmar we
49:35saw these
49:36drones flying
49:37and it came
49:39as quite a
49:40surprise to us
49:41as to why
49:41are these drones
49:42flying here
49:42only to realize
49:44a few months
49:44later those
49:45drones were then
49:46used to attack
49:47the posts of
49:48the manmar army
49:48the tamadau
49:51let's go a
49:53little ahead
49:54in time
49:55you come to
49:55last year
49:56november i
49:58think 18th or
49:59so when an
50:00assam rifle post
50:01in manipur was
50:02again attacked
50:03by drone
50:04and the
50:05people's liberation
50:07army pla
50:07manipur claimed
50:08the responsibility
50:09in fact they
50:09went to the
50:10extent of showing
50:10videos of
50:12that attack
50:13of how the
50:14ammunition
50:15on the
50:16assam rifle
50:17post in which
50:18four soldiers
50:19also got
50:19injured
50:21so this was
50:22a new
50:22for the first
50:23time
50:23security force
50:24post being
50:25attacked
50:26by drones
50:27so that is
50:28where the
50:29connect starts
50:29and let's now
50:30move ahead
50:31forward now
50:33but before
50:34that
50:34in the month
50:36of march
50:36last year
50:37the chief
50:38minister of
50:39mizoram
50:40mr lal
50:41did highlight
50:41the fact
50:42that there
50:43are suddenly
50:44large number
50:45of foreigners
50:45coming into
50:46mizoram
50:46he made a
50:47mention that
50:47some of
50:48them are
50:48going across
50:49and not
50:50seen in
50:50the routine
50:51tourist places
50:52where they
50:52should be
50:52otherwise seen
50:53and he
50:55says it
50:55was really
50:56quite disconcerting
50:57as to why
50:58are they going
50:58across
50:58then of course
51:00he clarified
51:00saying that
51:01some of them
51:01are probably
51:01supplying drones
51:03weaponry to
51:04the pdf
51:05also to the
51:06chin militias
51:07incidentally
51:08for the
51:08knowledge of
51:10your viewers
51:11in the
51:12state of
51:12chin itself
51:13there are
51:13about 25
51:14to 30
51:14thousand
51:15fighters of
51:16multiple
51:17chin militias
51:18that are there
51:18you have
51:19alliances
51:19the oldest
51:20of course
51:21being the
51:21chin national
51:21army
51:22of
51:22explain this
51:23in India's
51:24context for a
51:25moment
51:25is there an
51:26effort
51:27to fuel
51:29trouble in
51:30our country
51:30in the
51:31northeast
51:31maybe
51:32Manipur
51:32sometimes
51:33Nagaland
51:35at other
51:35times
51:36in
51:36Mizoram
51:37try and
51:38train them
51:39in Mizoram
51:40and launch
51:40them elsewhere
51:42that's exactly
51:42what I was
51:43coming to
51:43what I was
51:44trying to
51:44tell you
51:45that all
51:46these militias
51:46have
51:47transborder
51:47linkages
51:48with our
51:49militants
51:52so much
51:53of these
51:54weaponry
51:54etc which
51:55is coming
51:55into
51:56Manipur
51:57in fact
51:57the numbers
51:58are already
51:59there
51:59a large
52:00number of
52:01weapons
52:01got looted
52:01but a large
52:02number of
52:02weapons came
52:03in also
52:03from multiple
52:05sources
52:05so let's
52:06get back
52:06to Van
52:07Dyck
52:07the central
52:08character
52:08who we
52:09are discussing
52:10he may
52:10not be
52:11the only
52:11person
52:12maybe there
52:12are many
52:13others also
52:13who were
52:14involved
52:15in these
52:15activities
52:16and whenever
52:18you have
52:18mercenaries
52:19of these
52:19kinds
52:20doing such
52:21kind of
52:22jobs
52:22no government
52:24will take
52:24the ownership
52:25but it is
52:27for us to
52:27put two and
52:28two together
52:28and understand
52:29that there is
52:30really no reason
52:31for him to
52:31come unless
52:32there are
52:33some
52:33assurances
52:34given to
52:34him by
52:35someone
52:35which is
52:36why he
52:36was here
52:37and one
52:38of the
52:38things that
52:39the CM
52:40Mizoram
52:41also mentioned
52:42last year
52:42was that
52:43there are
52:43also many
52:44Ukrainian
52:45veterans who
52:46are coming
52:46here in
52:46Mizoram
52:48so you
52:48just need to
52:49connect all
52:49these doors
52:50to understand
52:51that what
52:52the CM
52:53then said
52:53is now
52:55it's like
52:55something
52:56coming true
52:56now
52:57so
52:58this is
52:58extremely
52:59dangerous
53:00yes
53:01it's a
53:01concerted
53:02effort
53:03the
53:04Chinese
53:04presence
53:04was
53:05always
53:05there
53:06to
53:07upset
53:08all the
53:09developments
53:09that are
53:10happening
53:10in the
53:10northeast
53:10and in
53:11the last
53:11decade
53:12developments
53:13that have
53:13happened
53:14are
53:14phenomenal
53:16general
53:17I'll hopefully
53:18get you back
53:18for a much
53:19longer
53:19discussion
53:19I'm sorry
53:20I've run
53:20out of time
53:21on this
53:21part of the
53:21show
53:21but the
53:22fact
53:23that one
53:23American
53:24many suspect
53:25his CIA
53:26six Ukrainians
53:27have been
53:28taken into
53:28custody
53:28and there
53:29were
53:29thousands
53:30of foreign
53:30tourists
53:31who were
53:31visiting
53:31India's
53:32northeastern
53:33states
53:33especially
53:34Mizoram
53:34what was
53:35their work
53:36there
53:36there's a
53:37detailed
53:37investigation
53:38and we'll
53:38be tracking
53:39that very
53:39closely
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