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00:00Spread lines on a Monday morning right here on the Early Line Sports Grid Network.
00:04Donnie Wright side, Joe Ranieri on assignment there in the big city
00:08because that's how big this week is going to be.
00:10But before we get to the rest of this week, we got to talk some basketball action.
00:14That includes the first four in Dayton, Joe.
00:16So typically, we give you what's going to happen tonight,
00:19but the big things are going down in Dayton starting tomorrow.
00:22How about Howard versus UMBC?
00:24Remember that team?
00:25Ready to pull upsets here against 16 seeds?
00:28Well, they can take down Howard, and they are favorites to do that right now, Joe.
00:31Current line, minus 2.5 for UMBC, a total of 140.5.
00:36The first four gets underway, 6.40 p.m. tomorrow, Joe.
00:39Give us a spread line for that one.
00:41Yeah, 16 versus 16 here, Donnie, with the right to go and get lambasted by Michigan there in Buffalo on
00:49Thursday,
00:50who, by the way, is probably not going to be very happy with how that resulted out against Purdue yesterday.
00:55But, listen, I had UMBC against Vermont in their championship game.
01:02Why, Donnie?
01:02They haven't lost a game since the end of January.
01:06And if you watch this team, this team is no joke.
01:09Listen, Howard is there every year out of the MEAC.
01:12They are a contender each and every year.
01:16It's not going to be easy.
01:17But sometimes you just don't want to get in front of these trains right now.
01:21And UMBC is playing outstanding basketball here.
01:25I like them to eventually move on to get crushed, of course, by Michigan.
01:30I do.
01:30I think the first four is kind of interesting to me, too, because the teams deserve to be there.
01:34And I always used to ask, like, the opinions.
01:35Like, would you rather just be included into the field of 64 or would you rather go to the first
01:40four?
01:40I'd rather go to the first four.
01:41That's a tournament win that you can certainly rebound up to.
01:44Hey, I went to the tournament, won a game.
01:45I had my spotlight game.
01:47Then you go get filleted in the next round, but it doesn't matter.
01:49You already picked up that win versus light competition.
01:51And speaking of that light competition, Joe, tomorrow night in Dayton, 9.15 p.m. Eastern.
01:56That's NC State and Texas.
01:57Look at this game.
01:59Depending on where you're shopping at, you see the graphic.
02:01Texas minus one and a half.
02:02Some outlets do have NC State as the favorite right now.
02:06And a total of 159 and a half.
02:08Two evenly matched up teams.
02:09NC State, Texas tomorrow.
02:11What's that spread line, Joe?
02:13Well, it all depends on which North Carolina State team shows up.
02:18The one that can shoot you out of the gym or the one that is going to get bullied.
02:23Can't hit a three, Donnie.
02:25And Texas is just going to simply dominate the boards here.
02:29Love Sean Miller.
02:30I do like this Texas team.
02:31I think the physicality and the way they play, Donnie, is set up for tournament-style basketball.
02:37NC State, it's all about whether or not they can hit the jumpers from outside.
02:43If they do, if those threes are falling, it's going to be a long night for Texas.
02:47But something tells me the physicality is going to wear them down.
02:50I like Texas to get it done here.
02:52Loving the studio action.
02:54Fun here on a Monday.
02:55Ready to go.
02:57It's Monday.
02:57It's Tuesday.
02:58It's Wednesday.
02:58It's Thursday.
02:59It's Friday.
03:00And then all of a sudden, we are full into speed into March Madness.
03:04And I love this time of year.
03:05But you know what else we love in the early line as well?
03:07We got a lot of exciting topics for you to hit today, which does include March Madness,
03:11which we're going to get to in just a few moments.
03:12But how about this?
03:13Tom Becchio is going to join us here at 740 a.m. Eastern here to make sure we're all the
03:18latest
03:18and go over what to anticipate in Major League Baseball for the rest of spring training
03:22right up till the day we start Major League Baseball's regular season on the 25th.
03:26And then in hour number two, it's Kevin Walsh rising and grinding with us
03:30to make sure we have all that fun in the NBA that you need to know.
03:33But, Joe, March Madness, it's a rite of passage.
03:36Selection Sunday happened.
03:37You see the brackets in front of your face, and you got to love it.
03:41So let's bring up this little graphic here.
03:43The top 16 seeds, which I don't have an issue with outside Axios St. John's not being on
03:48this graphic.
03:49Duke a one seed.
03:50Arizona a one seed.
03:51Florida a one seed.
03:52Michigan a one seed, Joe.
03:53And away we go.
03:55Yeah.
03:55I mean, listen.
03:56The Johnnies came in as what?
03:57A five seed, I believe there, Donnie, which is kind of interesting.
04:01It's the team they ended up beating, not once but twice this year, is a number two seed.
04:07But for the most part, I mean, I think the committee did a really, really good job there.
04:13Although, you know, TCU coming at number nine is interesting as a nine seed.
04:17But listen, I think they nailed it.
04:19And more importantly, I think those teams that were left out on the bubble, like the San
04:24Diego States, the Indianas of the world, right?
04:27Sorry, the Auburns of the world.
04:28Yeah, you don't deserve to be in.
04:31I think they nailed it this year.
04:33You know, a seeding here or there, bottom line to me is you got the four number ones correct.
04:37Everything else after that will just work itself out.
04:40The East region seems to be a gauntlet, Joe.
04:43Top seed there, Duke, going to take on Siena, the winner out of the Metro Atlantic.
04:46Ohio State, TCU should be a great one, an 8-9 matchup.
04:50St. John's, some people say maybe the worst matchup they could have got is a five seed
04:53going up against that nasty 12 in Northern Iowa here.
04:56Kansas, Cal Baptist, Louisville, South Florida, Michigan State, North Dakota State, UCLA, USF,
05:01and UConn and Firm in the last two games on that card, Joe, in Philadelphia as well.
05:07Let's just go over some of the names in this.
05:09East bracket, you ready?
05:11John Shire, Rick Pitino, Bill Self, Tom Izzo, Mick Cronin, and Dan Hurley.
05:18It is the who's who of name recognition in college basketball coaches here.
05:25Any which way you turn, there's going to be marquee name, marquee matchup after marquee matchup
05:30once we get to the Sweet 16 and beyond there.
05:33But that is a loaded bracket with some of the best coaches in college basketball.
05:38How about that Western region, Arizona, the top seed here going against LIU, which is Sharknado territory out there.
05:45As they get in, Nova and Utah State, Wisconsin, High Point, Arkansas, and welcome in Hawaii as a 13th seed
05:52here.
05:53BYU gets the winner of Texas and NC State, Gonzaga, Kennesaw State.
05:57And look at that matchup, Joe, on Friday in St. Louis, Missouri.
06:00Miami taking on Missouri and then Purdue and Queens showing out here, Joe, that Western region.
06:06Sneaky.
06:07I mean, sneaky, tough side of the bracket for Arizona.
06:12Number one, Wisconsin's a very dangerous team here as far as I'm concerned, Donnie.
06:17They are a team that is not going to be intimidated.
06:20They have some of the best guards in that bracket.
06:23And while the physicality, obviously, inside the paint for Arizona is going to be tough to overcome,
06:30there are some teams that can flat out shoot you out of the gym here on this side of the
06:35bracket.
06:35I don't think this is going to be a cakewalk for Arizona out West.
06:39There's a lot of tough matchups out there.
06:42By the way, I'm going to bring up this next graphic for the Midwest here.
06:44And I need some clarification, Joe, because Houston coming in here as the one seed.
06:49But I don't see them, like, is this graphic correct?
06:52The Midwest region said Houston's a one seed.
06:55Gonzaga's an eight seed.
06:56What is this?
06:57What am I looking at here, Joe?
06:58Help me, please.
06:59Yeah.
07:00It's kind of crazy.
07:01But at some particular point, you're going to have, you know, they're in the same side of the bracket as
07:06Florida.
07:08So at some point, maybe it'll lead eight.
07:11Yeah, number one, number two is what that's going to be, Donnie.
07:14There Houston's a number two seed right now in that bracket.
07:17So you are, that is eventually, and don't forget, Donnie, when we get to that point of the tournament, it's
07:24in Houston.
07:25So you're going to hear a lot of people complaining about that.
07:28That's going to be home court, home field call, whatever you want.
07:31But Houston's going to have a big edge as the tournament moves on once we get to that Elite Eight
07:36and Final Four situation.
07:39South region, Joe, Florida, the top seed here, going to get the winner of Prairie View A&M and Lehigh.
07:44Other teams in here, Clemson of the ACC taking on Iowa here.
07:47I always love those eight, nine matchups.
07:49And we always talk about upset possibility.
07:51Vanderbilt was really good in the SEC tournament.
07:54McNeese State, watch out.
07:55There's a lot of aura with that team here.
07:57Nebraska and Troy, North Carolina, VCU, Illinois, Penn.
08:01Congratulations.
08:02Ivy League champ Penn here.
08:04Love to see that.
08:05St. Mary's taking on Texas A&M, Houston, and Idaho.
08:08If you look at this, too, because most people start to factor in, they want those 5-12 upsets.
08:13Do we get them this year?
08:15We'll find out right here on the Early Line.
08:17We'll be back after this short break.
08:19Selection Sunday was yesterday.
08:20The brackets are set and we are ready to go.
08:22The first four takes place in Dayton, Ohio tomorrow night, Thursday, Friday.
08:26Some of the best viewing experiences you can have as a fan of college basketball.
08:31No doubt about it.
08:32Wall-to-wall basketball action.
08:34Keeping you updated.
08:35It's what we do on the Early Line and also throughout the Sports Grid Network.
08:38But let's take a look.
08:39Yesterday, Joe, Arkansas winning the SEC championship in the tournament.
08:4486-75 over Vanderbilt.
08:46Here's Coach Cal.
08:47Guy's building the dynasty already over there.
08:50Now, I've kind of been that way and done all right at every school I've been at.
08:56So you could say it's wrong or you can live with it.
09:00You could be peed off or peed on.
09:03I really don't care.
09:06And so this was for these guys.
09:10Can I tell them what I said in the pre-game?
09:14So I said, guys, it's another game.
09:19We're trying to get better.
09:21Let's see where we are.
09:24We were holding our seat and Nick Pringle in the back said,
09:30Hell no.
09:31Bulls***.
09:32True.
09:33And this is not English.
09:34Well, this is for a championship.
09:36And I said, if that's what you need me to say, great, let's go get a championship.
09:40I mean, this is about them.
09:42I've done this so long.
09:45There's stuff you do you don't even know.
09:46And I said it the other day.
09:48I don't have a rearview mirror in my car.
09:52I look one way out that way.
09:55And so this stuff, I've been blessed.
09:58I've been blessed that their families let me coach them.
10:02The man can coach, Joe.
10:04The man can flat out coach.
10:05They win an SEC tournament championship.
10:07They're heading in as a red hot team.
10:09Acuff Jr., 30 and 11.
10:11He's been nothing sort of spectacular.
10:12We're not surprised that Coach Cal is already dominating here at Arkansas, are we?
10:18No.
10:18Well, when you have Acuff Jr. there, who's dropping, what, 30 points, three rebounds, 11 assists.
10:24The kid is maybe one of the more underrated.
10:28I mean, listen, with Peterson taking all the headlines, you got this kid co-op, Pete, obviously, in Arizona.
10:34But what Acuff Jr. has been doing is nothing short of crazy.
10:37And don't forget, Donnie, that was a brutal stretch for the SEC tournament.
10:41It kind of felt like maybe Vandy left it all out there to beat Florida.
10:46But just too much.
10:48I mean, both those teams, Donnie, Vandy included, are only going with seven-man rotations here.
10:52These kids are playing a lot of basketball and a lot of minutes.
10:56And we were wondering if they had anything left in the tank.
10:58The answer, they had plenty left in the tank here.
11:01Big 10 championship yesterday here.
11:03Michigan as the favorite got knocked off by Purdue.
11:06That final score, 80-72.
11:07Here's head coach Matt Painter postgame after the big win.
11:10Obviously, playing four games in four days is something we haven't done before.
11:15We've been lying to do it before but not getting to this point.
11:18So I just thought our guys had a great effort and concentration because that's hard.
11:24It's hard to get, you know, back up and play another game and do it four consecutive days.
11:30So, you know, I thought we put ourselves in a good position.
11:34They scored, I think, like four to six points to finish the half while we were trying to juggle lineups
11:39with foul trouble and really wanted to have an advantage there
11:44and kind of how you finish the first half and how you start the second half
11:48is such an important piece of the game.
11:50So we did a good job of starting the second half, a little bit of a roll of the dice
11:53with Oscar,
11:55having three fouls and starting right there.
11:57You know, he gets a quick foul there.
11:59It can change some things for our team.
12:01And so you do that and he doesn't foul, you're a genius.
12:05You do that and he does foul, you're a dumbass.
12:08And so there's just nothing in between right there.
12:11Well, we'll have to get back and get our opponent and start preparing the scouting report.
12:15But we'll refer back to a couple lessons we learned from this game.
12:18I want to begin by congratulating Purdue four games in four days
12:21and for their three seniors that have been together for a long time.
12:24It looked like they really found something deep inside.
12:27And when you start the year preseason, number one, you have two first-team All-Americans
12:31and it doesn't go as planned.
12:32You come in here as a seventh seed with your back against the wall
12:35and play the way they did and perform the way they did is, you know, it's impressive.
12:40And especially, I thought, TKR, I thought his force around the rim.
12:47I thought Braden's ability to manage the game, 21 assists, two turnovers
12:52against constant pressure was very admirable.
12:55But overall, they earned it.
12:57Obviously, we weren't at our best, but obviously Purdue has something to do with that.
13:01Four games, Joe, in four days.
13:04You're not supposed to be able to do that here.
13:05But Dusty is right.
13:06That's a talented team that might be finding themselves at the right time.
13:11They lost four of their last six in a regular season, Donnie,
13:15only to rip off four straight wins in the Big Ten tournament.
13:19Listen, we all knew Purdue had the talent, right?
13:23They certainly had the experience, right, with all those guys on the team
13:27that have played with each other for as long as they have.
13:29Listen, I don't trust Matt Painter in the tournament as far as you can throw him here.
13:33His teams usually figure out a way to fall flat,
13:36but they did not in the Big Ten tournament.
13:39So kudos to them.
13:40And Michigan kind of looked in a lot of ways like they knew they were getting a one seed.
13:45And yeah, so what?
13:47We'll see you.
13:48You know, we'll see you in March.
13:49Madness is kind of what it felt like.
13:52The Mac usually only gets one team in.
13:54That's the automatic bid.
13:55Not this year, Joe.
13:56Two teams from the Mac get in, which included Miami, Ohio.
13:59They got in not as an automatic bid, but an at-large bid.
14:02And here's their coach, Steele, talking about that.
14:05Very excited to be selected as an at-large team for the NCAA tournament.
14:10Huge honor.
14:11I'm happy for our guys.
14:12Thought our guys had earned it all season.
14:14Obviously didn't go the way that we wanted to in Cleveland.
14:18But our guys will learn from it.
14:19And I think we're built for March.
14:21We played in a lot of close games.
14:23Excited that we'll be playing in Dayton,
14:24which hopefully a lot of our fans will be able to make it to the game.
14:27Should be a home crowd for us, which I think will be an advantage of us.
14:31We're excited to get out there and play.
14:32I don't know a ton about SMU.
14:33I've seen them kind of casually play on TV, national TV.
14:37But like other than that, I don't know a ton about them.
14:39But we'll learn a lot about them tonight.
14:42How about that?
14:43Heading into the tournament here.
14:44About a touchdown, underdog.
14:45The fans will be there.
14:47National stage.
14:47Going to be fun to watch it play out.
14:49And also, one of the teams that they got in, talking about Miami-Ohio, over was Auburn.
14:54But the SEC, Joe, complaining that they only got 10 teams into the tournament?
15:00Crazy.
15:02That's the whole thing, Dottie.
15:04I mean, all of this nonsense here about expansion and everything else is so you can get your 11th, 12th,
15:11and what, 13th best teams in that conference?
15:13They want a participation trophy.
15:15I don't think so.
15:17Listen, Miami of Ohio deserves to be there.
15:19Getting an at-large bid is great.
15:21They don't have a quad one win on their record, not to their fault.
15:26You can only play who's on the schedule.
15:28But the reality is they're going to have – it's must-watch television, Johnny.
15:31We've been telling everyone what?
15:32For the last two months, you've got to watch this team play.
15:36Nobody wins.
15:37Even when it's down, Dottie, they're never out of it.
15:39Nobody has won more close games decided by less than a bucket than Miami of Ohio.
15:46They know how to win games like this.
15:48I don't care who they're playing.
15:49And they are a threat here, especially to SMU.
15:52I'll tell you what's crazy.
15:53Pop that graphic back up here that shows the first four out because it's Oklahoma, it's Auburn, San Diego State,
15:59and Indiana.
16:00It's in a wild times where none of those four teams, Joe, absolutely move the needle at all, but Miami,
16:05Ohio does.
16:06Good job by the people making the decisions to put Miami, Ohio in.
16:10We'll watch that.
16:10I didn't want to watch Auburn on the first four at this point.
16:13I do want to watch Miami, Ohio.
16:14Win or lose, it doesn't matter.
16:16It's the right move that they made to put them in.
16:18How about this, Joe?
16:19Nebraska is the only power conference team to never win a men's March Madness game.
16:25They play the 13th seed in Troy in the round of 64.
16:27Is this the right time for Nebraska to get that dub, Joe?
16:33All right.
16:33Listen, they are very much in a position to be able to do it, Donnie.
16:37You've got to love Fred Hoiberg there and the Cornhuskers.
16:42They have been, outside of Miami of Ohio, one of the best stories in college basketball this year.
16:49They've got guys that can flat out play and shoot the ball.
16:53They've got a couple of bigs inside the paint.
16:56Nebraska is built to win games in a tournament like this because they have more than one way to beat
17:02you, Donnie.
17:03It's going to be real fun watching Nebraska move along throughout this tournament.
17:08Taking a look quickly here at some of the odds here, Joe, to win the national championship on the men's
17:12side.
17:12Duke the favorite at a plus 380 price.
17:14Actually, Duke is no longer the favorite plus 380 there.
17:16Arizona at a plus 340 price.
17:19Michigan plus 390.
17:20And Florida, 8-1.
17:21Do you agree, Joe, that Arizona should be the favorite right now?
17:25Yeah, absolutely.
17:26I think the injuries with Duke, still concerning.
17:30Right back at it on the early line.
17:32It's a Monday and there are so many topics we need to get to today.
17:35But we welcome in Joe Ranieri.
17:37He's in studio today.
17:38Loving it here.
17:39Kevin Walsh.
17:40He's in a studio today, somewhere where we don't know.
17:43I'm in the studio today.
17:44But I've got to get this out of the way, too, because I heard through the grapevine.
17:47Kevin applied to two schools in the New York area.
17:50One was St. John's.
17:51One was Iona, rejected by his hometown team.
17:54St. John's had to go to Iona here, Kevin.
17:57Let me explain yourself on that one, too.
17:58What were the grades like in high school?
18:00Yeah, since you brought it up, grades were good.
18:02I was accepted on the spot and offered a scholarship money in a guidance counselor's office by St. John's.
18:09Went on the visit.
18:10There's no way.
18:12Yeah, Donnie, they were doing a group tour.
18:14Veered off, sat down in the cafe and made my booking plans for when Iona's trip number two was on
18:20its way.
18:20Come on now.
18:21Ah, there we go.
18:22Now, granted, we had selection Sunday yesterday, Kevin.
18:25And we took a look.
18:26And sometimes I think the tournament got it right here because Miami of Ohio got in.
18:30I wanted to see that because they're actually must-see TV, even if they're not must-see TV.
18:34And I love the fact, Kevin, they got into the first four because you get to watch them.
18:38Win or lose, they should be there.
18:40We'll see what happens.
18:41Can they cover the spread at seven and a half?
18:42But that's not my question here.
18:44It's rare.
18:44Like, we're not talking about a mid-major for St. John's.
18:48Red hot to end the season.
18:49Won the Big East regular season championship.
18:51Won the postseason tournament.
18:53And get hit with a five-seat as if it was like, yeah, they come out of the MEAC at
18:56this point.
18:57What do you want from them?
18:57Were you surprised when you saw St. John's a five-seat here?
19:01So, a little bit.
19:03I don't want to act as if I was like, oh, I knew they were exactly going to be a
19:08five.
19:09But St. John's in the net is 16th and on Ken Palm is 17th.
19:16So, this isn't a team.
19:19I understand that they beat up on, you know, UConn once again in that Big East championship.
19:27I think what we saw is the committee told you that this was an awful year for the Big East.
19:32And I don't think they were wrong in that assessment.
19:35There's only one other team from the conference that made it in.
19:38It was Villanova, who opens as a dog against a Mountain West team, which is, by the way, moving towards
19:46the Mountain West team.
19:47We know how these, you know, that usually goes right in the tournament for that conference.
19:52I think UConn being able to be a two-seed is all about their out-of-conference stuff, right?
19:59Wins over Florida, wins over BYU, probably somebody, even the pedigree that UConn brings to the table there.
20:06I think it's, I almost wonder if you could argue UConn's more overseeded than, like, the idea that UConn was
20:13battling for a one-seed, quite frankly,
20:15never made any sense to me when you look at where their metrics were stacking up.
20:20Yeah.
20:21Yeah.
20:22UConn will be great as long as they don't play St. John's, apparently, in the tournament.
20:26They're good to go there.
20:27But you put them at a five, Kevin.
20:29Now, here we go again.
20:30Like, last year, Bill Self versus Rick Pitino, and now only one is going to advance, which is kind of,
20:37which stinks when you think about it here.
20:40But I think the Johnnies have a legit opportunity to make life difficult for Duke, if they can get to
20:45that point.
20:46Yeah, I think for Duke, there's a lot of talk around how tough the draw is overall, and it's not
20:52wrong, right?
20:53I think even the Ohio State TCU winner will feel a level of live in that game, because those are
20:59two pretty good teams.
21:01They're at least, they are both elite on one side of the ball, right?
21:05One of them is a top 25 offense, and Ohio State TCU is a top 25 defense.
21:09But I think for Duke, the bigger issue is, despite the fact that they did win that ACC tournament, it
21:16didn't look the way all these other games looked.
21:17And it's very easy to point to, no Gungba, no Foster.
21:24Is that kind of the problem here?
21:27So, not that Duke-Siena is a measuring stick game, but it feels to me, the number one overall seed
21:34in Duke will not be as popular a champion pick, right?
21:39I don't think people will be reinvesting in them in the futures market, despite the fact they won that ACC
21:45tournament.
21:45Coming right back in live here from Diction Markets Edge, right here on the early line.
21:49It is a Monday.
21:50It is a basketball-centric show, and why not?
21:53We just watched, Joe Ranieri, the fact we had selection Sunday.
21:57Some teams upset with their seeding, but we know it's official.
22:00Who's in and who's out, and away we go.
22:02And our job, Joe, over these next couple segments, to get the people ready.
22:06How does that sound, Joe?
22:07Can you handle your business on this one, can you?
22:09I am ready, Donnie.
22:11Let's roll here as we got playing games.
22:14We've got a lot of finger-point, yelling, screaming.
22:17But, hey, congrats to Auburn for being that number one team in the NIT as well coming up.
22:23Shout-out.
22:24Bruce Pearl sat on that panel yesterday, very upset that Auburn did not advance, but it is what it is.
22:29We got our teams out there ready to go, and there will be teams playing in Dayton, Ohio, tomorrow night.
22:34University of Maryland, Baltimore County, taking on Howard.
22:37If you look at the Ken Palm Index here, UMBC is 185th, and Howard is 207th.
22:41If we take a look at the predictive markets here on Calshi, a 55% chance to win is with
22:47UMBC.
22:48The dog is Howard, currently trading at 45 cents.
22:51If you look at the spread in this game, it is close on Calshi at 2.5 points, Joe.
22:56That currently trading at 49% as a chance for UMBC to cover that spread.
23:01How do we look in Dayton tomorrow night, 6.40 p.m. Eastern?
23:05Listen, I loved Baltimore County against Vermont, the championship game there, Donnie, and it proved to be the right call.
23:12I mean, this is a team that has not lost since the end of January.
23:16I mean, once we hit February, they have been going scorched earth and playing some great basketball.
23:21And we know Howard is the class of the MIAC.
23:24They are each and every year.
23:26But when it comes to this time of year, not so much, Donnie.
23:31In fact, I believe just two appearances in a round of 64 for Howard, and they lost both those games
23:38by a minimum of 28 points.
23:40So they'll have a shot here against Baltimore County, but it's not a train I'm willing to step in front
23:47of here.
23:47When you rattle off that many wins, Donnie, it's not a small sample size, and it's not a fluke.
23:54Baltimore County deserves to be here, and I think they'll handle business against Howard in this spot.
24:00Protecting the basketball, Joe, we know that means a lot.
24:03You take a look at Howard on the season, close to 20% of their offensive possessions, Joe, and in
24:07turnover.
24:08You flip that over to UMBC, 27th in the nation at protecting the basketball.
24:12Maybe it comes down to that.
24:14Texas and NC State, Joe, here's what we love to see on the Kelsey marketplace, and we do have some
24:19shifting numbers right now.
24:20It was just 50-50 as a chance to win this game outright between NC State and Texas.
24:25It just shifted to a 49% chance for NC State and a 51% chance for Texas here.
24:31If we look in the lines, a 3.5-point favorite here for NC State, trading at a 39%
24:37clip,
24:37which means if you wager 100 or invest, I should say $100, that pays back 244 if NC State can
24:44win by 4.
24:45But look at that, Joe, roughly 50-50 in our trading right now.
24:50Yeah, and listen, this is a couple of different styles, right?
24:55We know that Texas is, A, going to dominate the boards.
24:59They're going to be crashing them.
25:01They're going to try to get it inside the paint, and they're going to get to the free throw line.
25:05North Carolina State is going to be all about the perimeter.
25:10Can they chuck up enough threes and make enough threes to make life difficult for Texas?
25:15I think, you know, Will Wade versus Sean Miller is an absolutely outstanding matchup here,
25:19but it's two totally different styles.
25:22Ultimately, I think physicality, rebounding, wins this game, and it usually wins in tournaments.
25:29And I think Texas has all the right ingredients to be able to get this win in advance.
25:36Two efficient teams, Joe, on offense here.
25:38Texas coming in 13th in the country and NC State at 20th.
25:41But Joe is right about this.
25:43Elite at getting to the free throw line.
25:45That is Texas.
25:4646.2% here from the free throw attempts to field goal attempts, which is incredible.
25:51That's good, Joe, for fourth in the country.
25:53And when you get to the line, you got to make sure you convert those.
25:56As a team, 75% from the free throw line.
25:58We'll see if that makes a difference tomorrow night.
26:00But two games to get started off in Dayton in the first four, and away we go.
26:05Right back out of here.
26:05Prediction Markets Edge on the early line.
26:07By the way, Joe, the Oscars took place last night, and we love it when the people correspond
26:12with us here on social media.
26:13How about us talking about last week the chance that maybe Josh Allen and his wife, Haley,
26:18would show up to the Oscars because of the nominations.
26:21We're so many.
26:21I think 16 nominations for the movie Sinners here, which she was in.
26:25Josh Allen and the wife did not attend the Oscars, says at Danny Moon in 89.
26:29So there you go.
26:30I think they were trading, I want to say, Joe, around like 20% as a chance for them to
26:34be there
26:34as a nice little upset, but the favorite side wins out because Josh Allen and his wife
26:38did not attend the Oscars.
26:40Now, granted, we did say she was pregnant and would be a long shot, but how about that?
26:43The people are watching, Joe.
26:45Love to see it.
26:46Yeah, well, maybe the best decision, Josh Allen just keeps making great decisions there.
26:51Yeah, not wasting his time going to the Oscars.
26:55Well done, Josh.
26:56Way to read it, man.
26:57Way to read the room.
26:59Stay home, relax, watch it on TV, and get down to business.
27:02That's what a lot of us are going to do here, Joe, when you take on the Men's College Basketball
27:05Championship.
27:06We might not be there for the final for the championship game, but you can invest in it
27:09here, Joe.
27:10And the investment's coming fast with Duke as the favorite, trading at a 22% chance,
27:16followed by Michigan, Arizona, Florida, and Houston, Joe.
27:19If you were picking a team right now to win it all and cut down the nets, where is that
27:24investment money going for you?
27:27That's not changed for me, Donnie.
27:28It's still Florida, even though they lost to Vandy there.
27:32I like the setup in the South.
27:35I like them being the number one seed.
27:38Eventually, they'll eventually have to go through Houston in Houston at some particular point,
27:42likely in the Elite Eight.
27:44But I think Florida has the makeup, and I'm kind of glad they did lose that game against
27:49Vandy.
27:50Kind of brought them back down.
27:52Now they know what they need to work on.
27:54I think they got a legit run.
27:56I think Duke and the injuries, as the tournament moves on, I think it's going to be a problem.
28:01And while they'll handle the bottom-tier teams, it's once they keep moving on, getting to that
28:07Elite Eight, I'm a little worried about Duke.
28:11So I'd invest in Florida at this point.
28:13How about this, Joe?
28:14Arkansas currently trading at a $0.02 chance here, which means a $100 investment pays back
28:20$5,000.
28:22How about that, Arkansas, and Coach Cal and Acuff?
28:25You know, Joe, when you get the March Manage, you win with great guard play.
28:28They're getting that right now.
28:29Could be a fun team to watch as we move on.
28:31Another way that you can advance here on the Cal State Marketplace here in the Prediction
28:35Markets, Joe, seed to win the Men's College Basketball Championship.
28:38So you get a couple different options here.
28:41One, two, three, or more at this point.
28:43And also, if it is a one seed, you don't have to pick the one seed, Joe.
28:46You get all four one seeds, all four two seeds, all four three seeds here.
28:50A 68% chance is the favorite right now, of course, for the one seed.
28:57Yeah, it's going to be a one seed, Donnie.
29:00It's likely going to be four number one seeds playing in the final four to begin with.
29:05So I think it's just very chalky.
29:07I always thought that top four to six teams this year in the rankings, it's your champions
29:16coming from that group, and it's likely going to be from the top four.
29:19So I wouldn't look anywhere outside of a number one seed being your champion.
29:25How about this?
29:26Teams to prevail on upsets here in the round of 64.
29:30So it's going to leave out the first four.
29:32But understand this.
29:33There's upsets two different ways.
29:35You can quantify those, Joe, for handicappers.
29:38An upset is they were getting five and a half points.
29:41They won the game out right here.
29:42That's an upset.
29:43That's not how it's graded on the Predictive Markets, Joe.
29:46The upset specifically is just by seeding here.
29:49And it starts with three or more upsets, goes to four, five, six, and seven.
29:53You know there's a lot of upsets, Joe.
29:54But again, the caveat here, it must be by seed, not by actual spread line.
30:01Interesting.
30:01Well, listen, Donnie, we know.
30:03How about FDU?
30:04Does that ring a bell?
30:06Keep in mind that we have seen these first four winners who advance into the round of 64.
30:13Yeah, at least one of them pulls off an upset, Donnie.
30:17So take your pick here on who it's going to be, but don't sleep on it.
30:22We just saw Fairleigh Dickinson do it, right?
30:24We've seen this in the past where these teams come out of the first four, got a game under them,
30:29and they get taken for granted in the round of 64, and they pull out the outright upset.
30:35And I think it's going to happen again, Miami of Ohio.
30:37Oh, we are getting upsets here.
30:39Just you wait.
30:40Your bracket's going to blow up.
30:41But that's what we call March badness, and that's what the enjoyment factor of it is.
30:45And also, Joe, it used to be like, no 16 is ever going to be the number one seed until
30:50they do, Joe.
30:51So now it's not a 0% trading point here.
30:54So the question asked on Couch here that you can invest in, a 16 seed to win a game in
30:59the round of 64.
31:00So you get four opportunities to get that done, but it is only trading at a 4% chance,
31:05which means a $100 investment pays back $2,500.
31:10If you say that's not going to happen again, Joe, your $100 investment would pay back $104.
31:17Yeah, listen, I wouldn't go broke here.
31:20I mean, what are you going to get?
31:21UMBC or Howard to beat Michigan?
31:24Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen there, Donnie.
31:27Although, never say never, right?
31:30Because Purdue, yeah, Purdue didn't fare all that well.
31:34It does happen.
31:35But I don't think Siena is upending Duke in any way, shape, or form here.
31:40So, and LIU certainly isn't going to beat Arizona.
31:43I think this is a tough one this year for the 16 seeds.
31:47Like, yeah, you get four shots at it, but understand this.
31:50You got to win outright.
31:51It's like, hey, they hung within 25 points, Joe.
31:53I'm going to get my money.
31:54No, they have to actually win.
31:55No.
31:55And if you just want a half of a cup of coffee from Starbucks, take the no, invest $100,
32:00get your $4 back, and certainly keep it moving here.
32:03But, Joe, we talk so much about the men's bracket, and rightfully so here.
32:07But the women also will be playing for a championship here.
32:10And the favorites, way up top once again, the UConn Huskies currently trading at a 68% chance
32:16to win the championship.
32:18A $100 investment would pay back $148.
32:22But UCLA, no slouches.
32:24Texas, no slouch.
32:25South Carolina, no slouch.
32:27But is it just UConn, and it's too good to be true, that, of course, they're going to win it
32:31all again, Joe?
32:32It feels very chalky on that side as well, Donnie.
32:36It does.
32:36But are you stepping in front of Geno and UConn?
32:40How many of us are truly going to be surprised when they end up holding the national championship again?
32:46Not me.
32:47I mean, I know UCLA's got a shot.
32:49There are a few teams that have a shot.
32:50But I am not betting against Geno and the UConn women.
32:55Not doing it.
32:56You take a look, too, because they're trading at 68%, which feels right.
33:00Like, they are the best team in it.
33:01But also, like, there is a way that you can bet the field.
33:03It's take the no on UConn to win the championship in the women's college basketball championship.
33:09And by the way, that's currently trading, Joe, at $0.33.
33:11So if you took everybody else, there's some really good basketball teams out there,
33:15$100 investment actually would pay back $304.
33:17I got to tell you, yes, we think UConn's going to win.
33:20But you're telling me I'm going to get UCLA, Texas, and South Carolina for that same price there?
33:26It might be going in that direction, Joe.
33:27I don't think that's too bad of an option.
33:30No, I don't think it's that bad of an option at all.
33:33But again, likely the winner of this year's national championship game is going to be UConn.
33:39They're that price for a reason, Donnie.
33:41That's the reality of it.
33:42Right.
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