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00:00Right back out of here on the Early Line Sports Grid Network on a Monday post-Easter break.
00:04Hopefully everybody enjoyed the weekend, filled up on some food and family,
00:07and now back to business this week.
00:10It's Joe Ranieri. It's Donnie Wright's side.
00:12Let's get to those spread lines tonight, which includes a national championship game from Indianapolis.
00:178.50 start. Connecticut takes on Michigan.
00:21How about this spread? Opened up 7.5, Joe.
00:24Still sits 7.5, a total of 144.5.
00:28However, close to 70%, Joe, those tickets pouring in on Michigan.
00:33That line's really not moving anywhere.
00:35A lot of disrespect for UConn has Joe brought up already in caffeinated Joe.
00:40But what's that spread line tonight for the national championship game?
00:43Well, it's pretty funny, Donnie, right?
00:46Because styles make fights, and we have said that, and history tells us.
00:51And, listen, you don't even have to go back to the, you know, 99-2000s when that UConn team set
00:58the world on fire
00:58as a 100-to-1 pre-tournament winner there in the national championship spot.
01:04But since Hurley has taken over at UConn, you've got to give credit where credit is due.
01:09Donnie, they're 18-1 straight up and 18-1 against the number the last four years in the NCAA tournament.
01:18They are just an absolute juggernaut in this spot.
01:21They don't get here by accident.
01:23This isn't some two- or three-game sample size here.
01:26They are absolute monsters.
01:29They know how to win.
01:30It's a culture thing.
01:31But here's the deal.
01:33At this price, Donnie, do we really need them to win in order to get the cover?
01:38You're asking Michigan to do what they did to Arizona, which was nice.
01:41But that's a different beast altogether.
01:44I think it's a true heavyweight fight.
01:46I also think the total might be a little low here, Donnie.
01:49Call me crazy.
01:50I think both these teams, especially if it becomes a matter of heading to the free-throw line there in
01:56the second half,
01:58I think we can get well over to 144, 144.5 that we're seeing in the market now as well.
02:04Yeah, there's a couple things for tonight, too.
02:05It used to be, I think, the national championship game started like 9.20 p.m. in the past, which
02:08is ridiculous.
02:09We're down to 8.50, which is still stoop, the height of stupidity.
02:13It should be a 7 o'clock start for maximum ratings, but they're stupid, and I tell them that what
02:17it is.
02:17Here's what we don't need tonight, Joe.
02:18At 8.50 p.m., when I tune in tonight, I get the national anthem,
02:21and the chain smokers come out and sing three or four songs before we get to the national championship game.
02:25Just give us the basketball.
02:27That's what we want to watch.
02:29National champion has been crowned here in women's basketball.
02:32National championship will be crowned tonight in men's basketball.
02:35But how about UCLA, Joe, 79-51 over the South Carolina Gamecocks,
02:40who the Gamecocks blasted UConn, and we had a little bit of extracurricular activities
02:45between the two head coaches, Gina Armiema and also Dawn Staley.
02:48But apparently, that was all the fight the Gamecocks had,
02:51because there was no fight against the Bruins.
02:54The Bruins absolutely took them apart in the third quarter,
02:57winning that quarter by 25-9, and it was a wrap from there.
03:00First national championship for UCLA, Joe.
03:05It's hysterical, Donny, because every one of their points was scored by its seniors.
03:10I mean, that's kind of crazy right there.
03:14Lauren Betts was the big center there.
03:17She's been there for a long time, and she came up a little bit short in the Final Four last
03:22year,
03:22not this year.
03:24And this was one of those classic situations here where it felt like whatever South Carolina had left in the
03:31tank,
03:31their one goal, their championship was about beating UConn in the Final Four,
03:35and they just didn't have anything left when they took on UCLA.
03:41And that was really evident from the get-go in that game, Donny.
03:46Yeah, it certainly was.
03:47Absolute blowout.
03:48Let's get to the postgame presser here for the champions, UCLA.
03:52Any questions for Coach until her time?
03:55Yeah, it's hard to even know what to say.
03:59First of all, thank you to all of you for partnering with us for this amazing game.
04:05I remember my dad used to say, if you can – I mean, he knew I loved to compete.
04:11He goes, if you can take something that you love and continue to compete
04:15and impact people's hearts in the process, you found a good thing.
04:20And this has been a calling, not a job.
04:24And I just am like so – it's just – I've been saying it all day, but I don't even
04:28know how else to say it.
04:29It's immeasurably more than I could ask or imagine.
04:31And so I just am really grateful.
04:33But it's really – it's not about me.
04:35It's about watching these incredible young women be dream chasers,
04:40to watch them grow in ways that they will remember and it will stick with them for the rest of
04:44their lives.
04:45And it's about their work and their habits yielding –
04:49and we say this, we want to recruit courageous –
04:52I'm kissing me, choked up.
04:54Because there's a lot of times where we wondered if it could be true.
04:57I said I wanted to find uncommon, courageous women that were willing to make uncommon choices
05:03that maybe possibly could yield an uncommon result.
05:06And today it did.
05:08That will open up for questions for student-athletes.
05:11UCLA, the national champions here.
05:13The final four, Joe, played out on Saturday night.
05:16Number three seed, Illinois, taking on number two seed at UConn here.
05:1972 to six – excuse me, 71 to 62.
05:23Here was the – this game in that one.
05:25Yeah, listen, we – I think we spent a majority of the year as a top-five defense.
05:30And, you know, just the life-and-death nature of this tournament, I think, has created the urgency.
05:41And I thought the – kind of the best thing that we did was get into them in the full
05:47court
05:47and get into them a little bit more in the half court
05:50and move some of those, you know, two-man actions a little bit further away
05:55and, you know, put them under, you know, a little bit, you know, more duress.
06:00But, you know, obviously to hold them to 33% from the field,
06:05three assists, eight turnovers in the game.
06:08We won a lot of one-on-one battles, not all, but, yeah, our defense sustained us.
06:14You know, we end up – I mean, we had so many opportunities.
06:17I mean, we – I mean, we could have made 18 threes.
06:20I mean, we had twos at the rim.
06:23I mean, you know, we – we could have played better offensively and finished plays more.
06:28But great ball security and the defense was elite.
06:33Am I competitive?
06:35Does today stink?
06:36It hurts.
06:37My gut hurts so bad right now that I feel for all of them.
06:43But I'm also excited about the joy that we brought a lot of people in this run.
06:48And we've got Illinois back to a level that they're in Final Fours again.
06:53And, by God, as long as I'm the ball coach, I better not take 21 damn years to get back
06:59there.
07:00And we've got great people.
07:02We've got great support.
07:04And for that, I'll reflect at some time.
07:08Today's not a very good time to ask me that.
07:09But –
07:11Game number two of the Final Four, Joe saw Michigan and Arizona, and it was a blowout.
07:15Michigan 91-73 despite not having their best player, the Big Ten player of the year,
07:20for the majority of that game.
07:21That was an extremely impressive performance as well, Joe.
07:26No, that too, Donnie.
07:27It felt like it was over before it started there.
07:31It just – it looked like Arizona got smacked.
07:34They panicked.
07:35And then, really, Michigan just never took their foot off the gas.
07:38And that was the end of that.
07:39That was the first time you saw Arizona win adversity.
07:42Didn't live up to it.
07:44Yeah, I was surprised by that.
07:45I was waiting for that comeback run.
07:47It never came.
07:47Michigan was the better team.
07:48And they could be crowned national champions tonight.
07:51Let's take a look at that game and much more coming up next.
07:54Joe Ranieri, Donnie Wright, sat here on a Monday on the Early Line Sports Grid Network.
07:59National Championship night.
08:01Let's call it 9 o'clock start.
08:02All eyes are going to be on Indianapolis tonight in a great Final Four, which we anticipated,
08:06which maybe didn't live up to the hype, but still got those big-time teams.
08:10But a big-time matchup, no doubt, tonight.
08:127.5-point favorites.
08:13Michigan taking on UConn.
08:15Total 144.5.
08:16We'll get to that in just a few moments.
08:18But how about this?
08:19DraftKings, Joe, sent out a tweet.
08:21Another men's tournament goes by without a winner from the western portion of the United States here.
08:27Arizona was going to hold that crown for them.
08:29But no team west of Texas has won the NCAA tournament since the 1997 Arizona Wildcats.
08:37Got to be the East Coast team, which, you know what, Joe?
08:39Just thought about this here.
08:40You know me preaching all of the time.
08:44Why do we start these games so late?
08:46Well, the West Coast people like to watch it, too.
08:49No, they don't.
08:50They don't participate in winning national championships.
08:53So, once again, Joe, start it at 7.
08:55Because nobody on the West Coast matters here.
08:58Am I right with that take?
09:00Oof, man.
09:01That is tough.
09:02But, yeah, you got to be in it to win it.
09:04And the problem is they're never in it.
09:06And they don't win it.
09:07And they have not since Lynn Olsen back there in Arizona in 97.
09:12Crazy.
09:12That mild signing?
09:13That comes up every year, Donnie.
09:16It cracks me up.
09:17Because I know guys that actually look at that map.
09:19And just, like, when it gets down to the Sweet 16, the Elite Eight, like, nope.
09:24Nope.
09:24Anybody west of the Mississippi, nope.
09:27Not doing it.
09:27It's got to be only on this side of the country.
09:30And it's a crazy, crazy trend that we've seen over the years.
09:36Certainly is.
09:37And, by the way, you do feel bad for some of these kids.
09:39Now, granted, NIL era, they're getting paid.
09:41But solo ball, like, you work your entire life to make it to these moments and play for a national
09:46championship.
09:47And now you're like, oh, no, I got injured.
09:49I'm in a walking boot.
09:50I don't know how healthy I'm going to be for a game tonight.
09:52This is massive news.
09:53And also, if you're handicapping this game or you want to watch, you're watching all throughout the afternoon trying to
09:58get those tidbits.
09:59You're watching pregame to see if he does warm up.
10:01But solo ball, they need him at 100%.
10:04Don't look like he's going to be 100% tonight, Joe.
10:07Yeah, I mean, but again, Donnie, this is not the first time this has happened.
10:12And, you know, it certainly is not going to be the last.
10:14Both teams are dealing with health issues here to key players.
10:18Even if both go, both are not going to be 100%.
10:22But, you know, it's not one-on-one, right?
10:25You need guys to step up in this spot, especially if you're going to win a national championship, right?
10:30Like, no excuses at this point.
10:32You got to go in there, leave it all out there.
10:34And I'll tell you this with both these kids.
10:36If they can go, they're going to go.
10:39You know, barring, you know, one of the adults in the room being like, no, if they can go, they're
10:44going to go.
10:44How Lendenborg actually came back in the second half was crazy to me.
10:47I thought he was done.
10:49But kudos to them.
10:50You know, brought him back in.
10:52But let's hope that didn't ruin his chances in this game.
10:55I know it's tough about that, too.
10:57While he came back and played, that's fine.
10:59Anybody who's had any injuries here, particularly an ankle or a knee, the next day it's going to swell up
11:03and it's going to be painful.
11:04Sometimes you can live on that adrenaline for that game, get the extra tape job.
11:08We'll see how he responds in that game tonight.
11:09But both teams, as we said, Joe, dealing with some injury information that you're going to want to find out
11:13a little bit later in the day.
11:15But also, it's about living in the moment, winning national championships.
11:18Sometimes we like to get ahead of ourselves.
11:20Not Dan Hurley.
11:21Here's what he said.
11:22Let me enjoy this until a couple days from now because I know that is coming and it's going to
11:27be brutal.
11:27What's he talking about, Joe?
11:29It's the transfer portal.
11:30Oh, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 years ago, you weren't dealing with this.
11:34Like, hey, man, kid's a sophomore.
11:35We'll be back.
11:35Hey, he's a junior.
11:36He's coming back.
11:36Or if that kid's a superstar, maybe my one guy does leave for the pros.
11:40Now Dan Hurley's like, let me see if I can win a championship.
11:43Then I'll take a couple days off and re-recruit my own players here.
11:47That's where we are as a society in men's college basketball.
11:51It is, but it's, you know, you've got to think if there's one person that's able to navigate the craziness
11:59that is the NIL, it's Dan Hurley.
12:02Because most of those guys in the portal, Donnie, right, they're not UConn guys to him anywhere.
12:09He has a very specific type of recruit that he is looking for.
12:14And make no mistake about it, he can play it all.
12:16But he's got the right team behind him of coaches and recruiters.
12:20They know who they want, what they want.
12:22He is not a guy that's going to wait last second for anything.
12:25He knows exactly who he wants to go out and get.
12:28And at UConn, why wouldn't you want to go play basketball at UConn?
12:33Look at where they are every year, Donnie.
12:36Yeah, come over here.
12:37You're going to get paid.
12:38You're going to get good coaching.
12:39And you've got a legitimate chance to win a national championship every single year.
12:42That's what UConn does.
12:43And Dan Hurley, look at that winning percentage.
12:46This is like, oh, he's 800% outside the conference against Cupcake.
12:49So he's 800% against the best teams in the highest moments you can possibly get to.
12:56Dan Hurley's been nothing short of spectacular, Joe.
12:59Yeah, I mean, and look at the teams that they beat this year.
13:01A number one seed in Florida.
13:03Three seeds in Michigan State, Illinois.
13:06The fourth seed, Kansas.
13:0711th seed, Texas.
13:08I mean, you go down the list here.
13:11It's like, what else do you want the guy to do?
13:14All he does is win.
13:16And even it's so crazy to me that you've got UConn is the blue blood of blue blood right now.
13:23And it might be the only one left here, Donnie, that's still competitive.
13:26And yet, boy, they have not gotten any love over these last three games here, man.
13:31It's been underdog, underdog, underdog.
13:34It's kind of crazy to think.
13:36Now, everybody keeps doubting him here.
13:38And the other doubts that we're going to have is how effective are some of these superstar players going to
13:41be tonight?
13:42How about a Pete Thamel tweet comes out?
13:44Michigan trainer Chris Williams told ESPN the MRI on Yaxal Lendenborg's knee looks very clean structurally.
13:51All the ligaments are very strong.
13:54He says Lendenborg has a low-grade MCL sprain and a small bone bruise in his knee.
13:59He's very optimistic that he will play on Monday.
14:02So battling through the injuries in the biggest moments, they'll do everything they can, Joe, to get these kids ready
14:08to play tonight.
14:09Well, that's why having a training staff, you know, it's worth paying, Donnie, to have these kids ready to go.
14:16And listen, if he can, it's great.
14:17It doesn't mean that, again, I don't think a lot of these guys, nobody's 100% at this point in
14:22the season anyway, Donnie.
14:23But if they can't go, well, that's where recruiting and having guys come off the bench matters.
14:29That's called depth.
14:30And, yeah, which one of these teams has got more of it, we may very well figure that one out
14:35here tonight.
14:36Good teams win, Joe.
14:38Great teams cover is what we'd like to say.
14:41Number one tonight, who is it going to be?
14:43Connecticut cutting the nets down or the Michigan Wolverines?
14:46You take a look at the spreads in this game.
14:48Opened up, at least at the Fan Blue Sportsbook, seven and a half.
14:51DraftKings actually has this line currently, Joe, at six and a half.
14:55Andal's still sitting at seven and a half.
14:56It's a mixed sport, called between six and a half and seven and a half.
14:59But the heavy favorite, Michigan Wolverines tonight, roughly with about 65% of the ticket count coming in on their
15:05side and a 144 and a half.
15:07So as I ask you, yeah, Michigan can win this game.
15:10But the question is, will Michigan cover Joe in this game?
15:13Well, and that's the big question, right, Donnie?
15:16That's a big ask here.
15:18And you also have recency bias being at play here with the public because they just watched them dismantle what
15:25everyone thought was the best team in the country in Arizona.
15:28So now, of course, UConn just is lucky to have gotten to where they are now.
15:35No, they don't.
15:36The bottom line, these are the two best teams in the country.
15:38The tournament has proven it.
15:40But asking one team to be that much better by seven points or eight points, that's a big ask here,
15:48especially for two teams that have never faced each other at this point in the history of the program, Donnie,
15:54which is kind of crazy when you think of it.
15:57But UConn and Michigan have never faced one another from the final four to the championship.
16:03Yeah, it's going to be incredible to watch.
16:04And as you pointed out, too, Joe, fantastic performances by UConn every time they get to the final.
16:09We'll see if that continues tonight.
16:10Can we pop up a graphic here for the tournament itself and the bracket here?
16:14Because once that start, you filled it out.
16:17You went game by game by game here, Joe.
16:19And the reason I bring this up is we got a great final four.
16:22Arizona, Michigan, I thought it would be a lot more competitive than it was.
16:24It wasn't.
16:24That's okay.
16:25UConn, Illinois, we thought it would be competitive.
16:27UConn basically held on that entire second half.
16:29But understand this, Joe, the bracket's going to look a little bit different, I believe, next year as well.
16:34The expansion of the tournament, Joe, going to get a lot bigger and a lot harder to figure out where
16:39your pool is.
16:39No?
16:40How do we feel about that?
16:42Yeah, well, because why?
16:43They're adding, now we're going to go to 76, team.
16:45Of course we are.
16:46But it's all going to be about the play-in tournament now, Donnie.
16:49They're going to have twice the amount of teams playing at two separate locations to try to get into the
16:56tournament.
16:56Yay, just what we need.
16:58Don't worry, Joe.
16:59When you get those playing games played at 11 p.m. out there in San Francisco, good luck, people.
17:05That's what they wanted.
17:06It's all about that almighty dollar.
17:08Joe, that's coming tonight.
17:09Connecticut and Michigan.
17:11Kevin Walsh going to join us next.
17:12We'll certainly bring that up to see where he's going.
17:14But, Joe, it's been a long fight.
17:16October, November, December, January, February, March, and into April.
17:21We're down to one game left on the docket.
17:24But you know what?
17:24We'll watch this game.
17:25We'll celebrate the national championship.
17:27We're like, oh, it's so long until college basketball starts.
17:30And then you'll get the countdowns.
17:32We're 120 days away.
17:33We're 60 days away.
17:34We're 30 days away.
17:35And before you know it, we'll be talking college basketball top tens heading into next season as well, Joe.
17:41But tonight, one last go around in Indy.
17:44Yep, and it should be an absolute heavyweight fight here, Donnie.
17:49You know, it's going to be a great coaching matchup.
17:54Great players playing great basketball.
17:56I think it's going to be worth you staying up a little later tonight, Donnie.
18:01What do you think?
18:02Got to stay up a little bit later.
18:03By the way, I was prepared to stay up very late on Saturday night.
18:06But that game got so out of hand, and I was also angry, as I said, about the chain smokers
18:10coming in.
18:10Who is it?
18:11Is it Flo Rida tonight?
18:12Like, who's going to perform when everybody just wants to watch a basketball game tonight?
18:17You know, the Florida-Georgia line?
18:19Somebody like that?
18:20Like, who else is going to be out there angering the public?
18:23Kevin Walsh is coming up next.
18:25He ain't going to ask.
18:26Hollywood can't write a better script for this morning here.
18:28Why?
18:28Yeah, it's post-Easter Sunday.
18:30Yeah, we ate a lot of good food.
18:31And this week, a lot of kids are off, but a lot of good basketball is going to be played.
18:35And answers that we need.
18:37It's Donnie right side.
18:38It's Joe Ranieri.
18:39Now we bring in Kevin Walsh on a Monday.
18:41And I got some questions here for that Kevin Walsh.
18:45What's going on?
18:46How are we feeling?
18:48Ready to get after it?
18:50Ready to get after it.
18:51Now, Joe doesn't like this.
18:52But when I talk about Disney stories and the script being written, Kevin, let me lay it
18:57out for you right now.
18:58Father and son raising the Larry O'Brien together.
19:03Los Angeles.
19:05Everybody doubted him.
19:06Luke is down for the playoff front.
19:08Austin Reed is down for the playoff front.
19:10And here comes LeBron James and Bronny James storming the fort in the playoffs in the Western
19:16Conference.
19:18Half the country hates it.
19:19Half the country loves it.
19:21Everybody watching, Kevin.
19:22Hear me out on this.
19:23We make a movie about this title, Ron.
19:25Yeah, I mean, it would be delightful.
19:28I'm not even sure you're wrong, but half of the country that would hate it should really
19:33get a reality check at this point.
19:36I feel like they, but again, that's probably not going to happen here.
19:41It is.
19:42I don't know.
19:43I don't know if we've talked about this already.
19:47But LeBron, a few times, it's like, oh, don't worry.
19:51This will be Anthony Davis's team.
19:52They're like, oh, no, it's not.
19:55And not because LeBron's unwilling to give him the team.
19:57AD couldn't take the team over.
19:59This second year in a row, that's Luke's team.
20:02Is it?
20:03Where is he?
20:05Where is he?
20:07Oh, no, it's Reeves's team.
20:08Okay.
20:10Got it.
20:11Great.
20:12So, again, like this sets it up, though, for where LeBron can leave and the Laker fans
20:18could maybe actually appreciate him on the way out instead of whatever it is they were
20:23doing about two months ago when they were saying they'd be much better if they got rid
20:28of him.
20:29Yeah, that would have been fun had they actually got rid of LeBron and this team pull into the
20:34postseason.
20:36So, what is it?
20:37I mean, you think he's out of hell.
20:39This is his final year in L.A. one way or the other, Kev, or do you think there's a
20:43chance
20:43that because of these injuries, maybe he comes back and runs it back one more time, or do
20:49you think it's going to be someplace else?
20:51No, I think the injuries help.
20:53Well, I think the injuries can help him leave because, again, I don't think he was going
20:58to be thrilled with leaving on poor terms.
21:03I just think at this point in his career, that was not, you know, I don't think he was
21:08looking to do the villain role thing again, right?
21:11And literally, it does not matter what happens to the Lakers in the playoffs.
21:15He's out there without Luka, without Reeves.
21:19Like, if Laker fans are like, oh, how did LeBron not get us past blank on his own, that
21:24would be insane.
21:26I tend to believe there are three teams in the mix, the Lakers being one of them, everyone
21:30knows the Cavs.
21:31I think it is possible he ends up a New York Knick.
21:34I think it'll depend how the Knicks season comes to a close.
21:37I think it depends how the Cavs season will come to a close.
21:40I still believe the Warriors' idea that people throw out is a nonsensical long shot.
21:48How about nonsensical tonight?
21:50I will, with Joe and I, as you know, Kevin, love to live in some of these predictive markets,
21:53Calci and Polymarket.
21:55So, I'm going to make a phone call over to Polymarket and Calci today to get me odds on
21:59a certain event.
22:00Tonight, game time decisions.
22:02You're going to want to check this one out tonight.
22:04It's Kevin and it's Gabe.
22:05Michigan is playing in the championship game tonight against UConn.
22:08So, I want Calci and Polymarket to say the odds that Gabe takes the points with UConn
22:13and or takes an under on Lenderborg's points tonight.
22:15How do we feel about the game tonight?
22:17Because you guys are going to have a party tonight and Gabe is going to be fired up for
22:21that show.
22:22Yeah, he is.
22:23I think I saw he was pairing some D2 basketball with Michigan over the weekends.
22:29I think he likes the little Marines here.
22:31So, the Lenderborg stuff, I assume you guys had all eyes on Arizona.
22:36I know the game got ugly.
22:38Yeah.
22:39Dusty May doesn't know that, though.
22:41I was losing my mind.
22:43And, you know, when you're on Twitter and you're like, oh, surely everyone will be talking
22:47about this.
22:48It's like I was getting a different feed of the game.
22:51Every beat reporter who was sitting there, I don't know if they're too far away to actually
22:55know what they're watching.
22:56They're like, man, is this the most impressive Final Four performance in the history?
23:01Shut up!
23:02I know the score.
23:04Lenderborg can't turn.
23:06He can barely run.
23:08And they're playing.
23:10There's nine minutes left.
23:12They checked him back into the basketball game.
23:15Up 20.
23:17He can't move.
23:19Dusty May, how do you feel about Lenderborg?
23:22You know, I let the doctors tell us.
23:24He says he wasn't going to not play.
23:26Thanks!
23:27Sounds like the doctors did great.
23:30They're like, this kid isn't ours in 40 minutes.
23:33Just let him play.
23:35And then we have one game Monday.
23:36Who cares?
23:38Yaxa Lendenborg is not healthy.
23:40Like, very much not at all healthy.
23:45And I wouldn't be, it's one of the great defeats all time Donnie was right games ever.
23:52Excuse me, I know I'm going a little long, but this will be worth it.
23:56Anthony Davis and the Lakers were in a playoff series against Phoenix.
24:01And AD got hurt, and I was like, maybe he'll come back.
24:05And they're like, he is back.
24:07I went nuts.
24:08And Donnie went, Kev, I am sorry.
24:11He is going to be useless.
24:14Devin Booker picked on Anthony Davis for four straight possessions.
24:19AD grabbed his knee and got out of there.
24:21I'm like, God, he's got to be 80%.
24:23Donnie's like, if he's 50%, that's high.
24:25Donnie was right.
24:27Yaxa Lendenborg at 50% is incredibly generous entering into this basketball game.
24:34Yeah, it's going to be a fun one.
24:36Yeah, go ahead, Joe.
24:37No, no, I mean, how's Halliburton doing this year, by the way?
24:40Couldn't wait to get him out there in that game seven.
24:43I couldn't wait to do that either.
24:46How'd that work out?
24:47I mean, it's not like the draft is, in two months, the most important day of Yaxa Lendenborg's life.
24:55I will just say this.
24:57As I look through this game, I played the under.
25:01I did so at the 145.5 because it just feels like with all these championship games,
25:06if you do like the under, just bet the opening number because it's going to drop down.
25:12It has to 144.5.
25:14It feels like the only way, I mean, I guess, I know Michigan scores 90 every game they play.
25:21UConn will slow it down, play really good defense.
25:24I just have to worry about a Wolverine or a Huskies barrage from deep.
25:30It happens occasionally, but I'm banking against it here.
25:34Yeah, big Final Four this weekend on Saturday night.
25:36Championship game tonight.
25:37Make sure you catch the guys on Game Time Decision, 6 p.m. tonight.
25:41Kevin Walsh, Gabriel Morenzi, Michigan.
25:43I need you, Kevin.
25:44Just go UConn the entire show.
25:46Let's get some highlights, people.
25:48That's Kevin.
25:49Check him tonight.
25:57Simplicity tonight.
25:58Why?
25:59What is your best bet for tonight's men's national championship game?
26:02Number two, UConn, plus seven and a half.
26:04Number one, Michigan has a seed, minus seven and a half.
26:07Or do you like the over or the under in this spot?
26:10I do think a lot of people watch that game with Michigan on Saturday.
26:13If they're just a better team, they'll win that game.
26:15It's not a pick-em tonight, Joe.
26:16It's getting seven and a half for a team that doesn't lose national championship games here.
26:21Which way did you go in our fade to public poll, Joe?
26:24Yeah, you know, I'm still leaning towards the over here tonight.
26:28I still think that we are going to, I think the game is going to be closer.
26:33I do think that foul shooting is certainly going to come into play.
26:37And listen, both teams are more than capable of making enough threes to make it extremely interesting.
26:42So, I think it's going to be close to going up and over here.
26:47At the 144 and a half number, that's where I would look.
26:50I'd throw a little flyer on the over here tonight.
26:53There you go.
26:54Some flyers on the over tonight.
26:56Speaking of flyers, yeah, we can't get into that right now.
26:58But I do love the word conversations that we have with Joe.
27:01Flyers, baby!
27:02Flying over the total tonight.
27:03But now, it's new week, Joe.
27:05It's new money.
27:06Let's get after it.
27:07Here's bye-bye-bye.
27:14Come on now.
27:15It's a Monday, Joe.
27:16National Championship.
27:17You got hockey.
27:18You got everything.
27:19You got Major League Baseball.
27:20Where do we go tonight for the people to put more money in their pocket for you?
27:24Well, Donnie, I'm not a big trends player here.
27:29But there are some trends that just stand out.
27:3218-1 straight up and 18-1 against the number in the last four NCAA tournaments.
27:39Has me saying, you want to give them how many points tonight?
27:44Seven and a half?
27:47Yeah, I'll take the seven and a half.
27:51And listen, Donnie, styles make fights, right?
27:53The teams that gave UConn the toughest, you know, shots this year.
27:58Seton Hall, right?
28:00Marquette.
28:00St. John's.
28:02You know what those teams do?
28:03They turn teams over.
28:05The teams that UConn destroys, if they don't turn the ball over, guess what?
28:11Florida's of the world.
28:12Illinois of the world.
28:14Illinois, one of the worst defensive turnover teams in the country.
28:19Do you know where Michigan ranks on turning teams over?
28:23Number 277.
28:24They're not turning UConn over.
28:26If UConn doesn't turn the ball over themselves, this is going to be a lot closer than seven and a
28:31half.
28:32I'll take the points.
28:33Speaking of picking up a victory tonight, you win one more game.
28:37You will be a national champion.
28:38That's Michigan and UConn tonight.
28:41Teeing it up in Indianapolis.
28:43This game, Joe, going to start around 8.50 p.m.
28:45And Michigan, currently trading as the favorite at 74% as a chance to win.
28:51If UConn can pull out that outright upset, Joe, currently trading at 27%, $100 investment pays back $3.71.
29:00UConn has never lost in a championship game.
29:02That will be put to the test tonight, Joe.
29:06You know, Donnie, this is the shining example of we've been talking in the predictive markets here since about the
29:12Sweet 16.
29:13That, you know, the way to approach these markets is that if you could have hopped in on UConn just
29:20to win it all,
29:21you could have got them in right around a Sweet 16, Donnie, of about, what were they, $0.06, $0
29:26.08 at the time?
29:28And we were telling you, listen, I don't care if they win it.
29:31I just need them to get to the championship game.
29:34And what we were able to buy in on them and what they are worth right now was going to
29:40be night and day.
29:41You knew Michigan or Arizona was going to be a big favorite over either Illinois or UConn.
29:47There was another opportunity to use the prediction markets there.
29:51Not needing them to win anything.
29:53Just needing them to get to the game.
29:56And you're looking at quite the profit right now along the way, Donnie.
30:01So it's another great example of why, yeah, I don't need UConn to win it.
30:05I just needed UConn to do exactly what they did.
30:08Make it to this game, and now you can cash out and just kick back and watch the game with
30:13the profits in your pocket.
30:14How about a preview here tonight that we can take a look at the MOP for a fade to public
30:20poll?
30:26Sting! Sting, sting, sting!
30:27Yes!
30:34To come to those who wait, Joe, you get all the spoils here, and so do we.
30:38Who is winning the men's tournament's most outstanding player, Joe?
30:42It's three Wolverines and one Husky.
30:44Mara, Lendeborg, Cadeau, or Reed Jr. from UConn here if they pull the upset.
30:51Well, I'm shocked it's not four Michigan players, Donnie, at this point, the way the market is reacting.
30:56So, yeah.
30:57Yeah, yeah.
30:58No, I definitely think it—the problem is it could be any one of a number of players on Michigan.
31:05If UConn pulls the upset, there is only one person going to be responsible, and it's going to be Reed.
31:11Yeah, Reed's an absolutely monster down low, but also, you take a look at Lendeborg.
31:14Yes, he's their best player, Big Ten player of the year, but if he's banged up and injured,
31:18somebody else has to basically go yard there, and we'll see what happens.
31:21More Predictive Markets on the way next.
31:24Don't you go anywhere.
31:25Predictive Markets Edge right here on the early line.
31:27It is a Monday, a championship Monday on the network.
31:30Fantastic game setting up tonight.
31:32Michigan and UConn.
31:33Michigan struggles typically in the championship game.
31:36UConn is usually great in the championship game.
31:38Downey right side, Joe Ranieri.
31:39Now we're going to bring on Joe Cervanco.
31:41Why?
31:41Because we got some inside information that somebody has a pretty solid ticket on those Michigan Wolverines.
31:48Joe, welcome into the program today.
31:51Thanks, guys.
31:52Thanks for having me.
31:53Let's have some fun with this, because Joe, myself, and Joe Ranieri, we've been sitting here since basically last August,
32:00and we've been pumping the prediction markets, introducing it to the people,
32:04and telling you a different way to invest your money.
32:06And we always like to hear those stories.
32:08Oh, if I would have got in at this time or not, if we take a look at this national
32:12championship game tonight,
32:13which we're going to handicap in just a few moments.
32:15But tell us, Joe, how you went about, why you liked Michigan, and when you jumped in on those Michigan
32:22Wolverines.
32:24Well, it's always the when, right?
32:25We're always kicking ourselves for the when, and we're hoping we got in the when at the right time.
32:31Thankfully, we got in in January, so Michigan was a nice price at about 16, 17 cents.
32:38I liked Michigan all year, really.
32:40Like, their size, their big men can run the floor.
32:43Their big men have really high basketball IQs.
32:45They can find their guards when they need to.
32:46And they're constantly pushing the pace.
32:48So for a team with that kind of size up front that can run and actually put pressure on the
32:53opposing team's defense,
32:55like, that is a huge combination.
32:56You just don't see all the time in college basketball.
32:58So I was big on Michigan all season, and building up the sports group prediction market pages on the website
33:06was a big part of that.
33:07So I can't take all the credit.
33:09Part of it was for the brand.
33:11But I believed in Michigan then, and I thought they were undervalued,
33:15and I still believe in them going into the game tonight.
33:19All right.
33:20So I got to ask you here, Joe, because you got in at 16.
33:24I'm seeing 74 in the market right now.
33:27Are you hedging out?
33:30Are you holding on?
33:32Are you going to watch what's going on?
33:33Do you believe them in them so much that UConn doesn't have a shot tonight?
33:38Well, I know the whales watching here and the big bosses up front are saying, hedge, hedge, hedge.
33:43But I'm not a hedger.
33:44So when I go in, I got to go in.
33:47And with the name on the line and, you know, the pick on the website, I can't now back off
33:53and take the money and run.
33:55I think Michigan wins this game.
33:57I think they cover this game.
33:59So I think anyone on the UConn side, if you want to put something on the game, maybe you look
34:06at that.
34:07But right now I'm seeing on Kelsey, it's up to seven and a half, 46% for Michigan.
34:12I also like the over, if that's another angle you want to take here.
34:16But I honestly don't see how Michigan loses this game, even if Lendenberg is more hurt than he's leading on.
34:24You know, he said he's going to play through whatever he's going to play.
34:26He may be a little bit banged up, but I think even with him a little bit lesser than, I
34:34don't see how UConn can hang with these guys in the frontcourt at all.
34:39Yeah, hedging situations, it's always a pretty interesting opportunity.
34:42And when you take a look at the, you know, prediction markets here, Joe, as you've known, you can get
34:46in and out at any time.
34:47But also using those statistics to your advantage.
34:50So many times, like Joe's talking about, hey, I took UConn.
34:53All I needed them to do was get to the championship game and I got a nice profit.
34:57Now they're coming up as a decided underdog.
34:59But Joe, you're taking the approach of saying the correct way, wait a second.
35:02If I get in at 16%, yeah, it looks good at 73%.
35:05But if you redo the math, I have three chances basically to win out of four for UConn to get
35:11beat tonight and Michigan to win.
35:13That's the smart advantage letting this play out.
35:16Yeah, I think so too.
35:17And like I said, if you want to maybe get some more value in the game,
35:22maybe you see what happens if UConn can sort of jump out to a lead and then you jump back
35:26into Michigan.
35:27But I think staying with this ticket, you know, rolling with them right to the final is the way to
35:34go.
35:34And again, I just can't see a way UConn pulls this off.
35:39So I'm confident going in with Michigan.
35:41I'm staying with them.
35:42And I think the Wolverines are going to shake that supposed curse of winning it in the big game.
35:50Getting the call from the suits here to try to convince you here that you can stay with the ticket,
35:56Joe.
35:56And you can also take the seven and a half with UConn and have a chance of winning both those
36:03bets.
36:03So you don't have to bet against yourself.
36:05You can middle it, right?
36:07Isn't that what it's all about?
36:10It is what it's all about.
36:11So I'm not your professional gambler mentality, I guess.
36:16I just can't bet against myself and my team that I'm rolling with.
36:21I know I'm supposed to.
36:23The book says do it.
36:24But especially when it's something like a championship game, Super Bowl, you know, national title of football,
36:32you want to roll with the horses that got you there.
36:35And you want to, you know, you don't want to play on both sides sometimes.
36:39So I'm of that mindset.
36:41I know it's definitely not the smart way to go.
36:44But when you're rolling the dice, you got to keep rolling them sometimes.
36:48Yeah.
36:48I love it.
36:49Stay hot out there, Joe.
36:50By the way, the tagline above his head is SportsGrin's own Joe Cervanca.
36:54So, Joe, we have one of the best apps in the business.
36:56Updated every day.
36:57A ton of information.
36:58I always like to say you can follow your favorite host here.
37:01I think I should be followed more than anybody else.
37:03Joe, what are we doing on a day-to-day basis to keep this website hot?
37:06And what do we got going on?
37:08So really the thing to look for now is in the last few months, we've really been building up these
37:12prediction market models.
37:13So you'll see everything from March Madness to World Series winner.
37:18NBA Championship has just been added.
37:20If you're a soccer fan, we have World Cup.
37:22We have Champions League as well, which is going to get going again for the quarterfinals this week.
37:28So you can take a look at predictive models there.
37:31You can see breakdowns for every team, every matchup, and track where the line has been going and why.
37:38You'll see on our line, you know, why you'll see a dip.
37:42That could have been a big injury.
37:43That could have been a big loss.
37:44All those data points will be there on the graph, and you can follow along all season in all of
37:50these different markets.
37:52I love it.
37:53I think it's smart stuff that we do here at this point.
37:55Also, the up-to-date information, very easy.
37:57You've got the videos on there.
37:58You can listen along with us.
38:00You can watch along with us.
38:01And a lot of great stuff up there, Joe.
38:03And also, from what I'm hearing, too, did you take out maybe a ticket on the Philadelphia Flyers to win
38:07the Eastern Conference Finals at 2% Ocassie?
38:09Did I get that right from the people in the back?
38:13I did not.
38:15Don't get sucked in, Joe.
38:17Don't do it.
38:18Don't get sucked in, Joe.
38:19Hey, I'm in Leafs land, so I've got it much worse than you Philly fans at Duke, so.
38:26There we go.
38:27Hey, man, tough scene.
38:28We're looking to get back into the playoffs.
38:29Maybe we do, Joe, but great talking to you this morning.
38:31Awesome stuff going on on the website here at this point.
38:34And congratulations.
38:35I don't want to jinx you, so I can't say that.
38:37Great ticket so far on Michigan.
38:38We hope that you cash in that ticket tonight.
38:41Once again, Joe, thanks again for joining us here on the show.
38:43We appreciate it.
38:44Thanks a lot, guys.
38:45Have a great one.
38:47There you go.
38:47Joe Cervanca, SportsGrid's own Joe, building out great models and great information.
38:52And yes, we love the Predictive Markets show.
38:54And he goes, you know what?
38:55Michigan was my team there back in January, and away we go.
38:59How about that?
39:01Prediction Markets Edge on a Monday here.
39:03No better place to be on the early line.
39:05And also on the SportsGrid Network.
39:06Had some fun.
39:07Talked to the people behind the scenes that make this website great.
39:09And also with a legitimate investment here in the Michigan Wolverines.
39:13We'll see if that rides out.
39:14But as we asked here, Joe, coming up and saying, you know what?
39:17Where's the public going on our fade to public poll?
39:19It was a question on the MOP.
39:21That's the most outstanding player.
39:23Did you know the favorite right now is Mara from Michigan?
39:26And I agree with that.
39:27Second is Lendeborg trading at 23%.
39:30We don't know how healthy he's going to be tonight.
39:32So my choice actually would be Mara, Joe.
39:34But you know if UConn wins, maybe it's a three-point shot.
39:38Maybe it's Mullins.
39:38Maybe it's not.
39:39Taras Breed Jr. is going to be a force tonight.
39:42And he's UConn's chance.
39:43So the MOP, Joe, investments, where are you going?
39:50It depends on who you think is going to win this game, right?
39:52So if you're on Michigan, it makes sense to look at Lendeborg, right?
39:56If you like UConn, then yeah, Reed is the guy.
40:00Not to mention that the backstory where, you know, don't forget,
40:03Reed spent the first two years of his college career where?
40:06At Michigan.
40:07So this is – it would absolutely – the story would write itself
40:13if UConn was to win this game.
40:16And if they are to pull the upset, it's going to be because of Reed.
40:20And I think that's where the value is here.
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