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00:00The first four taking place in Dayton tonight, kicking off the field of, I guess, 68.
00:04And then we find out who those teams will be playing on Thursday and Friday.
00:07But it's a great time.
00:08And center stage will be taking here in Dayton.
00:11Howard is going to take on UMBC, the Retrievers.
00:14And by the way, I'm seeing it most outlets here, Joey.
00:1750-50 ticket count, which is exactly what you want to see.
00:20Anywhere between one and a half and ones in the marketplace still as a favorite towards UMBC.
00:25It all tips off tonight at 6.40 p.m. Eastern.
00:28Joe, you are looking at this game and you will be telling us, what's that spread line?
00:34Well, we saw this open at two and a half yesterday, Donnie.
00:38And it's been nothing but Howard money coming in here, pushing it down to the one, one and a half
00:44in which we see now.
00:45Now, both of these teams have been tremendous all year against the number.
00:49And both of these teams didn't lose a whole lot of games.
00:5222-8 on the season for UMBC.
00:55You've got a 19-9, but 21 games that they were able to cover is what the Howard Bison done.
01:02We told you yesterday, they have been the class of the MEAC here.
01:05A lot of experience.
01:07But who is stepping in front of the Retrievers?
01:10I mean, they have not lost a game since the last week in January.
01:14They are the better shooting team.
01:17And, Donnie, the only thing they've got to worry about is Howard loves to press.
01:21If they can create turnovers and get them messed up that way, Howard has an easy path to win.
01:27But something tells me that's not going to happen.
01:30It's the better shooting team that's going to dictate this game, which is why I think UMBC gets it done.
01:36But don't be shocked if it's a rock fight either.
01:39Yeah, we've got great matchups tonight, too, Joe.
01:41You take a look at that 140-and-a-half total.
01:43Now we flip it over to NC State and Texas, which is game number two in Dayton tonight.
01:47A 158-and-a-half total there.
01:48But look at this line as well, Joe.
01:50Minus ones, minus one-and-a-halves.
01:52And, by the way, depending on which outlet you're actually shopping at, who the favorite actually is.
01:56Some have NC State.
01:57Some have Texas here, which shows you how close this game's going to be.
02:00Just looking at NC State's offense, like, yeah, it was a down year in the ACC.
02:03But they're top 20 in efficiency in the country on offense.
02:06Then you look at Texas, Joe, top 13 in the country on offense.
02:10Hence, we have a total of around 160.
02:12What's that spread line tonight for you, Joe, on NC State, Texas?
02:16Well, I mean, listen, a little bit of a higher total.
02:18But both of these teams averaging, what, 84 points a game?
02:23In fact, I think NC State, 14 of their last 15 games, Donnie, have reached, I think one team has
02:29reached, at least 81 or more points.
02:32Which leads me to believe that defense is not high on the priority list for NC State.
02:37But this is all going to come down to who shoots better from the outside.
02:41If North Carolina State, they're going to get their shots, they're going to take them from three.
02:46If they make them, Donnie, if they seem to be on fire, it could be that is all she wrote
02:51for Texas.
02:51But it's a pick-em price, and I think it's a pick-em price for a reason, because Texas has
02:57more ways to be able to win this game.
02:59Certainly in the paint, they love getting to the free throw line, which is why, Donnie, how do we not
03:04take the over in this spot?
03:06It feels like points from both these teams are likely coming tonight.
03:11Yeah, we'll see what happens, and also understand this.
03:13Maybe a little bit tough.
03:14You can always get involved in these games in midway through.
03:17Tough shooting to start out the first five or six minutes, then you get a better price on that total.
03:20You hammer it away, because as Joe points out many times, they'll figure it out here.
03:24The rim's a little bit tight.
03:25Early teams will adjust, and they'll play different types of basketball.
03:28Maybe you get a better price point here.
03:29Davidson and Oklahoma State, NIT action.
03:32Oklahoma State, the home team here, Joe.
03:34Favored by eight and a half in the total of 155 and a half, which is actually up from around
03:38152 and a half to 153 and a half on some of those opening numbers.
03:42Davidson, Oklahoma State, college basketball, what are we thinking on that spread line tonight, Joe?
03:47Well, styles make fights, right, Donnie?
03:49And you will not find two teams on opposite sides of styles.
03:54I mean, Oklahoma State plays at the ninth fastest tempo in the country.
03:59You don't want to know what one of the slowest tempos in the country is?
04:02Davidson, that ranks in the bottom 25.
04:05Davidson's in a rush to go nowhere.
04:07The problem is, listen, Oklahoma State's got experience.
04:10They were here last year, won a couple of games in the NIT.
04:13What's real important here is this game is at Gallagher-Iva.
04:17It's in Stillwater, Oklahoma here.
04:20They're going to dictate tempo.
04:22It's very hard to slow down Oklahoma State, who wants to go, go, go.
04:27I don't think Davidson's got the shooting.
04:29And if they have to play from behind, this game could get out of hand here.
04:33I think Oklahoma State certainly has an opportunity to score enough points to get over their team
04:38total, Donnie, but also clear this number.
04:41Rip back out of here on a Tuesday.
04:43Oh, college basketball takes center court tonight.
04:46No doubt about it.
04:46The first four in Dayton.
04:48And away we go.
04:49And also during this show, having some fun in hour number one, during hour number two.
04:53You know we get those predictive markets involved.
04:54But also, Kevin Walsh joins us here early in hour number two to go over the game's hottest
04:59takes tonight, college basketball and also NBA.
05:01A host of Game Time Decisions at 6 p.m. to 7 p.m.
05:04Will join us here.
05:05But everybody, Joe Ranieri, likes to talk about Miami of Ohio.
05:09One head coach for SMU, particularly Andy Anthony, is like, shut up about it.
05:13This is about.
05:14When you say polarizing, Leah, maybe to one or two media people that speak out against them,
05:20I think they deserve to be in a tournament.
05:21They went 31-0, so some people just need to be quiet on air sometimes.
05:26And I think Miami of Ohio deserves to be there.
05:31They're an outstanding team.
05:32They share the basketball.
05:34They shoot threes.
05:35And to go 31-0 in a regular season, it's incredible.
05:38And so I have all the respect in the world.
05:40I coached at Florida Gulf Coast my first head job.
05:42You go 31-0 at that level of college basketball, you deserve to be there.
05:47And we're certainly not going to take them lightly because they're not in a power conference,
05:54but they're an outstanding basketball team.
05:57Andy Enfield, Dunk City, he knows about those smaller conferences here.
06:01They can rise up and bite you and win maybe a couple games in the tournament.
06:04But he's like, look, it's a good basketball team, Joe.
06:07I'm not going to let my team fall into that trap saying this team shouldn't be here.
06:09Let's roll them.
06:10It'll be fun to watch this play out.
06:11And Miami, Ohio, does deserve to be here, Joe.
06:13They do.
06:14Yeah, we've been screaming it for months here, Donnie.
06:18You can't go 31-0 in a regular season.
06:20I didn't care what they did in the MAAC conference.
06:22They deserved to be considered one of the best, you know, 64 to 68 teams in the country.
06:27And they'll have a chance to prove that once again here against SMU, who is going to get
06:34their best player back now, which is going to be interesting.
06:38But the more and more I look at this game, Donnie, the more and more, this is not going
06:43to be a rock fight between these two teams.
06:45SMU plays no defense.
06:47We know Miami of Ohio knows its defense is optional.
06:51But boy, is it going to be raining from the outside with threes here.
06:55This might be the highest scoring game we get of all the play-in games.
07:00By the way, it did work out perfectly.
07:02Unbeaten in the regular season, lose game number one in the MAAC tournament here.
07:04It was perfect because it gave a little bit of intrigue on selection Sunday.
07:07They win one or two games there.
07:09There's no selection Sunday madness at that point, but it worked out exactly the way that
07:13we want it here.
07:13For Alabama, working out a championship is where they want to be with Coach Nate Oates.
07:17But how about this?
07:18Alabama's Aiden Holloway, the Tide's second leading scorer, has been removed, Joe, from
07:22campus this week of the NCAA tournament, pending further investigation by the university.
07:27Turns out you can't just have pounds of weed laying around and get caught with it, Joe.
07:33Yeah, and let's not, you know, this isn't like some 18-year-old freshman, by the way.
07:39You know, like this is a 21-year-old man making a lot of money in NIL, playing for a
07:45team that
07:46has aspirations for a national championship.
07:49But behind the scenes, he's basically doing Lord knows what in his apartment there that
07:56requires you to have over a pound of weed and cash and everything else.
07:59So, not a good situation at all for Alabama.
08:04And I'm glad that they just said, yep, that's it.
08:06Got to go.
08:08Don't let it be a distraction, Nate Oates.
08:10Whatever you do, do not let this be a distraction.
08:13Yeah, do it in the offseason.
08:14How about that here?
08:15Let's load up and make a couple transactions here, Joe.
08:18Just before the tournament.
08:19Why?
08:20I might be away for a couple weeks.
08:21Got to handle my business.
08:22Ridiculous there for Alabama.
08:23We'll see how it turns out.
08:24But losing your second leading scorer on the night of the tournament starting?
08:28Yeah, it's not a great look here.
08:29I'll tell you what is a great look, though, Joe.
08:31Look at the courts here revealed for the Final Four.
08:33And guess what, Joe?
08:34No LED court for the Final Four.
08:36Who would have thought that?
08:38Yeah, shocker that it only took, you know, the Kansas States of the world and others to
08:44be like, this field, this court is terrible.
08:46Like, this is, nobody can see.
08:48I got headaches.
08:49I don't know what's going on.
08:51I'm seeing things.
08:52Finally, they decided to go back to, I don't know, Donnie, what it's like, a basketball court.
08:57Leave it at that, please.
08:59By the way, in the graphic, Joe, you go on the reasoning behind why they set the court up this
09:04way.
09:04Think about this, Joe.
09:05Who made this up?
09:06Basketball's never been faster.
09:07A game defined by its rapid pace and explosive movement.
09:10The breakaway stripes capture this dynamic energy with the use of bold, sweeping lines,
09:15vibrant colors, stripes and blurs, each element reflecting the intensity and speed that drive the sport.
09:22How about that, Joe?
09:23That gets you ready for the Final Four in Indy?
09:26Yeah, no, that's great stuff.
09:27That's really good.
09:28So that's what, wasn't that all true prior to you agreeing to do this with the LED car?
09:34Like, all of that was, you didn't just realize that, right?
09:37NCAA, of course not.
09:38You cashed the checks, you had the obligation, and that's the end of that.
09:43Bobby Valentino, Joe, in the early 2000s, told everybody to slow down.
09:47Well, let's take a look at some of the slowest tempos here, tempos in the 2026 NCAA tournament.
09:52St. Mary's, of course they're slow.
09:54Of course Clemson's slow.
09:55The Ivy League being slow, who would have thought that?
09:57Lehigh, UMBC, Utah State, UCLA, and Virginia.
10:00By the way, teams that they play against can't stand it when teams slow that game down because it sort
10:06of puts the pressure back with limited possessions and a chance for an upset here.
10:10We might get one.
10:10But St. Mary's, glacier pace as usual.
10:15Yeah, and they're going to be playing a team that is not a glacier pace.
10:19But good luck.
10:20A lot of those teams, they are, it's much easier, Donnie, for a slow-paced team like that to slow
10:27down a fast-paced team and get in their heads and be able to mess them up, you know, rhythmically
10:33there to run the offense.
10:34It's not so much the other way around.
10:37Like, teams don't speed up the St. Mary's of the world.
10:39They're not playing that game.
10:41So that's why these teams in a tournament, yeah, they're worth keeping an eye on here because the fewer possessions
10:48means fewer chances for blowouts as well.
10:51By the way, get a look at this, Joe.
10:53The largest NI, estimated NIL roster spend gaps here in the round of 64, right?
10:57You saw Kentucky, one of the most expensive lineups in the country, $20 million, but Santa Clara, $2.8 million.
11:03I got to tell you, like, I don't even care, Joe, about the upper-level teams here.
11:06$20 million for Kentucky, $12 million there for Duke, $11.5 for Arkansas.
11:11You know what I'm more impressed by?
11:12Siena.
11:13What do they got, 12 or 13 guys on the team spreading around $650K?
11:16These guys don't know how good they have it.
11:17I'm telling you, Joe.
11:18Mid-1990s here.
11:20I'm playing college football Division III.
11:21My parents would come up for the weekend for the game.
11:23They'd hand me a $20 bill.
11:24I thought it was a millionaire.
11:26These guys are getting hundreds of thousands of dollars on smaller schools here.
11:29Shout out to them, man.
11:30They're living a good life.
11:32Yeah, kind of crazy.
11:33I mean, right?
11:34You can see how to make it $650K pool, Donnie, to, like, really?
11:39Yeah, yeah, yeah.
11:40That's just, yeah.
11:41That's absolutely crazy.
11:42It's a new day.
11:43It's a new time in college athletics.
11:46But they better level that playing field and figure it out sooner, Donnie.
11:51Otherwise, this is going to go off the rails over the next couple of years with no oversight.
11:56Yeah, we were told, Joe, that the NIL is going to even the playing field.
11:59Anybody can pay to play.
12:01Oh, look at the top four seeds here.
12:02Seems like those teams were always good already at this point.
12:05Now, even more money to actually throw around at this point.
12:07But the first four tonight, they're going to be throwing it around tonight in Dayton.
12:10That starts with Howard and UMBC.
12:12That's Baltimore County, Maryland, ready to go.
12:14No strangers to pulling off big upsets tonight.
12:17Not necessarily going to be a big upset, Joe.
12:18They're favored by about a point, over a point and a half here.
12:21One forty and a half as the total.
12:22Great way to start.
12:23Also, as we bring up these two games tonight, evenly contested.
12:27That's all we ask for, Joe.
12:28Maybe it doesn't finish up that way, but great stuff here to start.
12:32Yeah, again, a 12-game winning streak on the ropes here for UMBC.
12:37I mean, both of these teams are basically battling for the right to get blown out against Michigan there in
12:42Buffalo in the 64.
12:44But, hey, listen, you got to be in it to win it, right?
12:47And you saw UMBC as one of those slowest tempo teams in the country.
12:53Nobody plays it better than they do.
12:55And don't forget, 2018, it was this UMBC team that actually upended number one Virginia in the 64 on the
13:04first day.
13:05So anything is possible here.
13:07Yeah, we also see some of these slingshot shows.
13:09Like, maybe not Howard or UMBC, the winner of that, but NC State and Texas.
13:13You're already playing in the tournament here.
13:14You're getting the cobwebs out.
13:16You're moving to a new city here.
13:17You're ready to get going.
13:18And maybe that helps you out at this point.
13:19Also, tough scene here.
13:20NC Wilmington is going to take on Yale tonight.
13:23Like, yeah, we're supposed to beat Penn, and they should be playing in the tournament.
13:25They're playing in the NIT.
13:26So be careful.
13:28Like, we are handicappers out here.
13:29And you're not going to take a look at Howard UMBC saying, you know what, Joe?
13:32I don't think either one of these teams' heads are in it.
13:34No, they're in it here.
13:35The NIT is kind of interesting where teams hoping to make the actual big dance, wind up in that tournament,
13:40and see what happens.
13:42It goes one of two ways, either scorched earth and revenge, or they throw the towel in, they give up,
13:47and they're easy enough to bet against.
13:49But tonight, Kevin, midseason form or not, the first four is in Dayton tonight.
13:53Howard, UMBC, NC State and Texas.
13:55My favorite thing about these two games, both of these lines, Kevin, one and a half.
14:00We're expecting good performances and tight performances tonight in both of these games.
14:04And certainly that's the case tomorrow, right?
14:07Nothing different about tomorrow's games.
14:10One and a half.
14:11Nothing abnormal.
14:12Certainly not a team catching seven and a half points in an 11.
14:18Oh, wait.
14:19I'm just saying.
14:20I'm happy Miami of Ohio is in.
14:22But people acting as if there was no conversation to be had were maybe being a little bit disingenuous here.
14:28I am trying to find out, and, you know, I know that both of you guys usually have the odds
14:34boards up in front of you.
14:36Is it real that this NC State-Texas total has dropped six, seven, eight points already this morning?
14:43And also, did someone leak the final score?
14:46Because both of these teams play far more offense than they play defense.
14:50What am I missing here?
14:53The tight rims tonight.
14:55Maybe get a little bit nervous at this point.
14:56What do you think?
14:57Like, unders automatically in these first four games?
14:59Or are you feeling more points?
15:02Defense is optional.
15:03The way Texas gets to the free throw line, there could be – this game might take six hours before
15:09it's all said and done.
15:10I'm with you.
15:11I don't understand the under.
15:12Do not understand it at all.
15:14Now, here's what I don't understand tonight, Kevin.
15:16We get a 640 game.
15:18Then we get a 915 game.
15:19What are we doing with the 915 game tonight?
15:21Come on.
15:21You've got to clear it out for the WBC, the RS.
15:24Donnie, grab a midday nap.
15:25You know what?
15:26Midday nap, midday snack.
15:27Now you're feeling good.
15:28Midday nap.
15:29Kevin's going to put it on the House of Pain.
15:30You're going to watch it tonight on Game Time Decision for people.
15:33That's what he does.
15:41Let's double down tonight here and have some fun.
15:43Joe, the floor is yours.
15:44Where are we going tonight with the best bet?
15:47I am, Donnie, going to go with a little NIT action here.
15:50And I am going to go with Stephen F. Austin here.
15:53The Lumberjacks out of the Southland Conference, 20-2.
15:57The only team they couldn't beat was McNeese State.
16:00That was it.
16:01Now they're going to take on Tulsa, who just got bounced out of their, the American Athletic
16:08Conference.
16:08Why?
16:09Because, well, they took them triple overtime to win one game.
16:12And then Wichita State ended up handling business in the championship game.
16:17I, listen, the shooting of Stephen F. Austin, especially from the perimeter, is going to
16:22make a difference here.
16:24I do like the over as well.
16:26But I think Stephen F. Austin not only grabbing the points, but sprinkle a little something
16:31on the money line.
16:31I think they've got upset written all over it here tonight.
16:35Prediction Markets Edge right here on the early line.
16:37It's time to get it started.
16:38And the hot topics certainly don't stop.
16:40A different way to invest your money here and a different look because we have tonight,
16:43the first four in Dayton.
16:44We also have the WBC and so many more topics to hit, Joe.
16:48Love this time that we get to do this.
16:50And it's ready to kick off tonight in NCAA action.
16:53How about that?
16:55I'm excited, Donnie.
16:56This is the most beautiful time of year.
16:59They call it madness for a reason.
17:01And it's going to start here tonight.
17:03We might get just a little bit of that.
17:06Close lines, as we called it already.
17:08The start of the tournament is tonight.
17:10Bracket busters.
17:11Well, maybe not yet until we get to Thursday and Friday.
17:13But tonight, it's going to be Dayton taking center stage.
17:15Game number one, Joe, right around that dinner hour, 6.40 p.m. Eastern.
17:19It's going to be UMBC taking on Howard tonight.
17:22And we talked about this in hour number one of the early line, how close we thought this game could
17:26be.
17:26And look at the trading going on right now.
17:29UMBC, a 52% chance to win this game.
17:32Howard listed at a 48% chance to win.
17:35If you feel Howard is going to win this game by one and a half points or more,
17:38currently trading at 45%, and the total, Joe, 141.5, trading at 49% tonight.
17:45Close game, UMBC versus Howard.
17:49Yeah.
17:50Keeper, remember this name here tonight, Donnie, because DJ Armstrong Jr. of UMBC just dropped 33 on Vermont.
17:58And he is going to do the same here.
18:01You're talking about a team that has rattled off 12 in a row now in Baltimore County.
18:05They are the better shooting team, and styles make fights here.
18:09And Howard is all about the offense is ugly for Howard.
18:13But Howard creates turnovers, which gets transition buckets.
18:17The problem with that is UMBC has some of the best guards, including Armstrong here.
18:23They don't turn the ball over, and they don't allow you to get out in the transition.
18:28So this is, they match up extremely well against Howard, who's been the class of the MEAC.
18:33I just think they're rolling.
18:35They're playing at a level with some confidence, Donnie, that we have not seen.
18:40I don't think they should have even been in this game.
18:42I think their resume was strong enough to bypass Dayton altogether.
18:46And I think they're going to show that again here tonight against what's a nice Howard team.
18:52But this is not a team that is somehow going to push all over UMBC and dictate this game.
18:58I think the Retrievers get it done in a big way here.
19:02And also, if you're saying, all right, first four there in Dayton, maybe a little bit of jitters here, and
19:05the game stays under the total.
19:07You can use that slider, Joe.
19:08Bump it down to 135.5 and take the under.
19:10That's trading currently at 36 cents.
19:12A $100 investment would pay back $278.
19:16Game number two tonight, 915.
19:18Same building in Dayton here.
19:20Texas going to take on NC State.
19:22SEC versus ACC.
19:24And I love this trading point as it's listed live right now.
19:2750% chance NC State, 50% chance Texas Longhorns here.
19:33If you want to bring the spread involved and say, you know what?
19:35I think Texas can win by 3.5 points.
19:37That's currently trading at 39% here.
19:39And the total, 157.5, also trading at 52% here, Joe.
19:44Two big teams here going into it.
19:46And again, market prices evenly split.
19:50They are, Donnie.
19:52And these two teams, even both of these teams, by the way, down the stretch in the regular season, were
19:58horrific.
19:59I mean, Texas couldn't win a game to save themselves here.
20:03And North Carolina State, outside of beating Pittsburgh, not great for them either.
20:09And listen, it's all about live by the three, die by the three with Will Wade and North Carolina State.
20:14They did make it a little bit further in the ACC tournament.
20:17Meanwhile, Texas, who got bounced out early because they can't win a game, even Coach Sean Miller said this week,
20:25it gave us an opportunity to kind of just breathe, get away from each other, get away from the game.
20:31We came back.
20:32We've had a couple of great practices now, kind of rejuvenated everything.
20:37It's going to be a battle.
20:38But we mentioned it earlier.
20:39I don't understand the move to the under.
20:41These two teams play no defense.
20:44And if the threes are falling for both teams, this thing goes way over the total tonight.
20:50Going to be fun to watch, man.
20:51First four there always draws a lot of attention because there's centerpiece games.
20:55One game at 640, the other one there just in the 9 o'clock hour.
20:58And then we do it once again tomorrow on a Wednesday night.
21:00You know, Prediction Markets Edge here will have you covered on those as well.
21:03But let's get to the NIT.
21:04There's other college basketball out there, Joe, outside of just the first four tonight.
21:08Davidson travels to take on Oklahoma State.
21:11Oklahoma State is the favorite, currently trading at a 75% chance to win this game.
21:15And, of course, Davidson as the underdog at 25%.
21:18So if you feel like they can pull off the upset, we're talking about Davidson here.
21:22A $100 investment, Joe, would pay back $400.
21:25A little bit more space in this game.
21:27Oklahoma State is the favorite tonight.
21:30Yeah, and as well they should be because the key here is that with the NIT,
21:34these games are on the home court of the higher seed.
21:37And Oklahoma State is the number two seed in the NIT.
21:40They were just here a year ago, Coach Steve Lutz and company.
21:44They won a couple of games in there.
21:47They ended up losing to North Texas.
21:48But this is a team that lost one of their big men about a month ago.
21:54Weren't quite the same.
21:55But they're the ninth fastest tempo team in the country.
21:58And that is a legit home court advantage here.
22:02The likes that Davidson doesn't exactly experience here.
22:06I think the tempo holds out.
22:07I don't think Davidson can slow down Oklahoma State.
22:10I think Oklahoma State wins this one going away.
22:13Prediction Markets Edge right here on the early lunge on a Tuesday.
22:17A first for Tuesday.
22:19And away we go, Joe.
22:20But also, some people, like, you know, it used to be like they call it a dollar and a dream
22:23in New York City.
22:24Like, hey, put a dollar in the lottery.
22:25Dream up something.
22:26Maybe hit that ticket.
22:27But now, Joe, you can put your skill and your luck to work on Calci.
22:31Why?
22:32They're offering $1 billion here.
22:36If you can pick the perfect bracket.
22:38Sounds easy, Joe.
22:40Just pick the perfect bracket.
22:41Get a billion.
22:42You can do it, Joe.
22:43Right?
22:44Yeah.
22:45I think the odds of actually doing that, Donnie, are about the same if you're expecting to hit the Powerball
22:51lottery six times in a year.
22:54I do not think that is going to happen.
22:57Although, listen, you've got to be in it to win it.
22:59Right?
22:59So, why not?
23:01As long as you ain't breaking the bank, have some fun with it, Donnie.
23:04That's what we all do anyway.
23:06And I'm sure they won't have this, Joe.
23:07But what happens, let's just say, if we still have that stock market strategy where through the first two days
23:11you are perfect and your stock price rises?
23:14Can you opt out and say, I'll just take the $50 million now so you don't have to pay me
23:18out later?
23:19Could be a fun advantage to have.
23:21But, again, a billion-dollar bracket sounds fantastic until you realize at 1255 day number one, one of your teams
23:28is getting smoked and you're already out at this point here.
23:30It always happens, trust me.
23:31You'll see the first, ah, who had this upset predicted here?
23:34Exactly.
23:34That's why it's so hard to hit at this point.
23:36But how about this, Joe?
23:37Not as hard to hit.
23:38Men's round of 64 qualifiers.
23:40What does that mean here?
23:41Well, tonight or tomorrow, you're going to have eight total teams looking to vie to get into the round of
23:4664.
23:46So if you win that game, you're in there.
23:48SMU is a favorite, Joe.
23:49They're trying to get a 73% chance to be in the 64 because they're going to take on Miami
23:54of Ohio, Lehigh, UMBC, North Carolina State, Texas.
23:57Who would you invest your money in, Joe, profitable-wise, that you would take here?
24:02Is it SMU?
24:02Lehigh?
24:03You're going for one of the dogs.
24:04Yeah, well, I like Lehigh a lot in that spot, Donnie, in their matchup there.
24:11Lehigh, very underrated team here.
24:13And I think they absolutely win and they advance.
24:17But you're seeing what I'm seeing, right?
24:19I mean, look at Miami of Ohio sitting there right now with, what, a 20-some-odd-cent opportunity?
24:27I like to beat SMU.
24:29I don't know why we think SMU is some sort of powerhouse here.
24:32Every time they played anybody with a pulse, they tend to get boat raced there and can't get it done.
24:39Miami of Ohio trading right now at a pretty decent price, Donnie.
24:43Might be worth taking a look at here if you think they can pull off the outright upset even though
24:48they're getting, what, seven, seven and a half points?
24:50Maybe even more by now, Donnie.
24:53$100 investment on Miami of Ohio to win that basketball game.
24:56Advance into the field of 64, pays back $358.
25:00Here's a good one here.
25:01In the NBA, we see quite often now the triple-double market.
25:04Like, hey, look at Donchick, get that.
25:05LeBron James, maybe somebody else.
25:07Men's college basketball tournament triple-double.
25:10Opened up here, Joe, to start.
25:11And that was on March the 13th, just a couple days ago.
25:1427% chance.
25:16It looks like oil prices out there, Joe.
25:18Take a look what the hammer got dropped on.
25:20March 15th at 2 a.m., went down to 16%.
25:23We follow ourselves all the way through, and now we're sitting once again here, Joe, at what?
25:2816% at the low marker.
25:31Will we get a triple-double, Joe, in the college basketball tournament?
25:36No, Donnie.
25:38A lot of games, though, Joe.
25:38I mean, that is incredibly difficult, Donnie, to do, especially given the fact that, listen,
25:45it's a marathon.
25:46It's not a sprint here, right?
25:47Yeah.
25:48Most teams, if you're blowing somebody out to the point where you can actually rack up
25:53those kinds of stats, chances are you're being sat with about seven minutes, five minutes
25:58to go in a game.
25:59They are not allowing you to leave it all out in a game that you are already well in
26:05hand.
26:06So, and the only teams that have guys that can do this right now, you know who they are.
26:11They're on the number one teams, and the rotations and the depth just don't allow for triple-doubles
26:16right now.
26:17By the way, these markets are so much fun to watch because you see, like, the cratering
26:20effect here, and that's going to bring us up to our next topic here on Polymarket.
26:23How about this?
26:23One seed to get knocked out before the round of 16.
26:26If you read that, it's like, oh, no, no, no, no, no.
26:28A one seed's not going to get knocked out by a 16 seed.
26:30That's not what they're asking.
26:31It's a one seed to get knocked out before they actually make the Sweet 16, which means
26:35they win their first game, they win their second game, then they find themselves out
26:39there in the round of 16, but they're already out before they got there, Joe.
26:42Opening up at around a 49% chance.
26:45Then you go over and take a look at March 15th, down to 22%, rising once again, we see now
26:51at a, what, 40, what's that, 42% chance for that to happen.
26:56Look, you win your first game.
26:57They're all going to do that.
26:58That round of 32, that's a legitimate basketball team waiting for that number one seed, Joe.
27:03How do we feel about this market?
27:05Yeah, this is tough, Donnie, because I think this year is so chalky, and I don't think anybody's
27:12taken out the one seeds in the round of 32 or 64, although we told you usually the trend
27:19is that these teams who win these play-in games, they often go in and bounce somebody
27:25out in the round of 64.
27:26They usually end up winning the next game, so there's at least one every year.
27:32Well, you've got a bunch of those teams that are going to be playing number one seeds like
27:36Michigan, for instance, but I don't see it happening this year.
27:40I think it's too top-heavy.
27:42I would go no in this spot here, Donnie.
27:44I think there's more value on that side than hoping for the upset.
27:48How about on the Cowshoe Marketplace here?
27:50Seed to win the men's college basketball championship.
27:53There's an interesting caveat in this one, Joe.
27:55Number one seed, of course, always going to be the favorite, currently trading at a 68%
27:59chance.
27:59Number two seed, Joe, to win it all, 17% chance.
28:03Number three seed at 8%, and then the number four seed's at 4%.
28:07Okay, it's going to keep going lower.
28:09Wait a second here.
28:10Five through eight, bounces back up to 6%.
28:12Why?
28:13That's the St. John's Red Storm effect right there, where a lot of people were betting
28:17them to possibly win the championship.
28:19But as you picked out, Joe, it's real chalky, and rightfully so, 68% chance for the number
28:24one seed to take down the Nets.
28:26Yes, and you can, at that price, Donnie, I would certainly invest in that market, but
28:33the number two seeds are also fascinating here.
28:36And I don't think you can look much past an eight seed, Donnie, because I don't think
28:41we've had that forever.
28:43But, you know, I keep going back to Houston, being in that part of the bracket where, you
28:49know, the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Elite Eight and Beyond is in Houston, so kind of a home
28:54court advantage.
28:56I would, I'd hit a couple of different markets there.
28:59It's not guaranteed that it's going to be a number one seed winning at all.
29:03How about the NCAA Championship Conference here?
29:06Let's just say, like, the Duke Blue Devils out of the ACC, you can get them at a 16%
29:10chance right now.
29:10On Polymarket, Joe, $100 investment pays back $408, but here's what I'm not understanding
29:15here, Joe.
29:16The Ivy League, which is obviously Penn here, is currently trading at 84%.
29:21So a $100 investment would pay back $118 on the Ivy.
29:25What is that about?
29:26The no is at a zero.
29:27So these markets do have to adjust themselves, because nobody's going to take the Ivy League
29:31at 84%, where you can get the ACC, Joe, somewhere in the teens.
29:36Yeah, no, not going to happen there, Donnie.
29:39So I think the market is telling you everything you need to know here, is it not?
29:43So why argue with it at this point, Donnie?
29:45It makes no sense.
29:47Just lay the contracts out there, people.
29:49Yeah, I'd rather have Duke than, let's just say, the University of Penn winning it all.
29:52Sometimes those decisions are made for just yourself here.
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