00:00The current conflict in Iran at the moment is causing significant issues with regards to
00:04trade access, particularly for air freight and for shipping. If you look at the Australian
00:09sheep meat export sector, the Middle East and North African region accounts for about 23%
00:15of the value of our trade flows. It's around $4.3 billion worth that goes into that centre
00:21or that region each year. When we take a look at individual state access for exports from
00:27each state around Australia in terms of sheep meat exports, Tasmania is incredibly exposed.
00:32It's 70% of their exports go to the MENA region. Other states that are highly exposed as the key
00:38processing state for sheep meat, Victoria, which 30% of what they export out of Victoria
00:43goes to the MENA region. Some of the other states are a bit lower in their exposure. On the eastern
00:48states down around 12% mark and even lower in New South Wales. But out in the west, they're pretty
00:55exposed to similar levels to Victoria. Western Australia, about 27% of the value of their
01:01sheep meat exports goes into that MENA region. And that's just for the box product, not for the
01:07live export trade that's also impacted by this. I guess looking forward, it's a matter of how long
01:12this conflict lasts, or at least how long can the Iranians keep sending drones and missiles into the
01:17neighbouring region. I suspect it's going to be only short-lived, maybe less than a month before
01:22the US and Israeli forces get full control of the air, including stopping drones. But
01:29if you think back to the Russian-Ukrainian invasion, there was a lot of thought there that
01:34the invasion would only last a handful of days, maybe weeks, and we've just ticked over into
01:39four years of that invasion. So it is going to depend on how long this Iranian hot conflict
01:44lasts for. If it extends out a significant amount of time, it could get quite troubling for the
01:50sheep meat sector, getting these exports in. And that's going to cause a bit of price pressure
01:54as we move forward if the conflict remains hot for an extended period.
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